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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,661
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:11am Dec 17, 2009 5:11am
Hi all.

Been really busy with work/ill child etc so have not had alot of time to trade. Saying that I never actually seen a good setup at the times I could look....until last night.

So here it is......a USDCHF long with bounces off the 21EMA.

I had a 40 pip 2unit stop, which as it turns out was actually only 2.5% of capital risk, so I could have altered it slightly but not too worry.

I closed the 1st Unit for 95Pips and have set the rest at +50pips. I don't have a target as such, but will just trail the stop up as we go along and let the market take me out. Would have been nice it it was a good MACD TC but it was very close to being that anyway. I entered at 11:05 GMT on the close of the 4H candle.

Good Luck

Neil
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  • #21,662
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:13am Dec 17, 2009 5:13am
Oh and I waited till after the rate decision.........I just added that so I could get to 100 POSTS!!!!!
  • #21,663
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:56am Dec 17, 2009 5:56am
Quoting Morelands
I took the AUD trade and I'm already out. I'll post later, similar analysis
Raymond
Raymond, this is a daily anaylsis, the neck line has been cracked to confirm the sHs pattern. The sHs pattern is almost 450 pips high, and that's where the price would go to, I think it will be near to 200sma of daily chart. Under a certain MM, I think it is worth to gamble which means to hold all the positions for a longer time
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,664
  • Dec 17, 2009 6:50am Dec 17, 2009 6:50am
What a move.... Today i see EURUSD in the morning (my time) and I was thinking that Asian time isn't gonna moved the price... Thought was wrong, perhaps I should start thinking trading during Asian time as well...
  • #21,665
  • Dec 17, 2009 7:00am Dec 17, 2009 7:00am
Quoting hammerhead
What a move.... Today i see EURUSD in the morning (my time) and I was thinking that Asian time isn't gonna moved the price... Thought was wrong, perhaps I should start thinking trading during Asian time as well...
hi, Henry. You should zoom out to have a look at market. eu has cracked important trend line. At this case, sls will be touched one by one so that price would fallen down than its bullish trend. Just remember last year's trend. you can choose other pairs which hasn't follow eu but just has broken important level.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,666
  • Edited 7:26am Dec 17, 2009 7:10am | Edited 7:26am
Quoting saka
Raymond, this is a daily anaylsis, the neck line has been cracked to confirm the sHs pattern. The sHs pattern is almost 450 pips high, and that's where the price would go to, I think it will be near to 200sma of daily chart. Under a certain MM, I think it is worth to gamble which means to hold all the positions for a longer time
Maybe I should of held on, but my R:R was good with my profit target, so + pips are good. I think price will pull back to b/t the 8 and 21 EMA and then head down. Hopefully, I will catch that. Plus, I took that trade right before my bed time and I tend to be more conservative when I can't watch price action. I hope your still in and make many pips. Thanks for your input
Raymond
  • #21,667
  • Dec 17, 2009 8:18am Dec 17, 2009 8:18am
saka:

Agree with the bullish intent on the $Y. I went long a few bars back after the downtrend line was broken for the third time and that previous high was broken = the third sister did not form because of the higher price; that is what I was waiting for. I've closed out on for about 20 and holding one more to see if a double top might form at the 100 Fib level...
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  • #21,668
  • Edited 6:25pm Dec 17, 2009 2:40pm | Edited 6:25pm
Quoting saka
I think it will be near to 200sma of daily chart. Under a certain MM, I think it is worth to gamble which means to hold all the positions for a longer time
I was thinking the same thing about AU so I am still holding. EU has already reached the 200 SMA on my DAILY chart (GMT+0).
(It has not reached the 200 SMA yet on GMT+1 and GMT+2 DAILY charts.)
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  • #21,669
  • Edited 5:18pm Dec 17, 2009 2:50pm | Edited 5:18pm
It is not even end of the month yet and EU has produced a bearish engulfing candle on the monthly that has engulfed the last 2 months. It is reminding me more and more of August 2008.

Saka, remember in August 2008, you put on a small trade and then you went on vacation to your home town and couldn't get access to your computer. When you returned, you found that you had lots and lots of pips. It has given me an idea. Perhaps I will go on summer vacation here without my computer and see if I have lots of pips on my AU trade when I get back.
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  • #21,670
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:45pm Dec 17, 2009 4:45pm
Out of the $Yen net pips = 0....Funny stuff there
  • #21,671
  • Dec 17, 2009 10:14pm Dec 17, 2009 10:14pm
Just before the start of the european session, thought I get in a few pips and close out the week and head out for some last minute shopping as I always leave it to the last few days lol.

GBP Daily
You can see that head and shoulders and price closing strongly below the 200 sma with nice engulfing candle and also TC on MACD on daily.

GBP 4H
Price broke through that blue trend line I have drawn with a strong bearish engulfing candle and closed below it and the next few candles have retraced to fill the gap and a TC might be in the works.

GBP 1H
This is where I made an early entry as you can see with the blue dotted horizontal line in anticipation of further down movement so we can bag a few pips. Target is set at the 4th fibo line down from the retracement on the 4H time frame @ 1.59700 just shy of the fibo line.
Stop loss just above the 21ema on the 4H.

You might not always be right but if you take the right odds on, the chances of you being right is much greater and not and you will hit 8 out of 10 trades correct which in turn will make it a great christmas every year.

Merry christmas to all and hope everyone will spend it with loved ones and cherish every moment
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #21,672
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:11pm Dec 17, 2009 11:11pm
closed 4/10th of position for 35 pips, I will close 4/10 before bed and let the last 2 run till around noon and with BE for stop loss.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #21,673
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:25pm Dec 17, 2009 11:25pm
35 pips in the bag, stop loss to BE before bed and let others run until wake up time...........might be some pips under the tree lol
Keeping Life Simple
  • #21,674
  • Edited Dec 18, 2009 1:02am Dec 17, 2009 11:48pm | Edited Dec 18, 2009 1:02am
I have taken a long on UJ. Entry 89.764 S/L 89.215

The reasons are : the current 4 hr candle has bounced off the 50 SMA and the trendline and formed a hammer closing above the 21 EMA. The previous 4 hr candle was a high wave candle and bounced off the 200 SMA closing above the 21 EMA also. On the 1 hr chart we have a double bottom off the trendline.

Again we need to be aware of resistance at the 90 level.


EDIT : Closed for 33 pips at 90.097. It is Friday after all.
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  • #21,675
  • Dec 18, 2009 12:28am Dec 18, 2009 12:28am
Saka,
Xeneric,

Don't you think that AU moves different way than EU against USD? I also watch this trade but it seems to me that AU is stronger that EU in the end of Dec. Can recover and could it be false breakout of the trend or prolonged sideways?

What do you think ?
  • #21,676
  • Edited 1:18am Dec 18, 2009 12:44am | Edited 1:18am
Quoting xeneric
It is not even end of the month yet and EU has produced a bearish engulfing candle on the monthly that has engulfed the last 2 months. It is reminding me more and more of August 2008.

Saka, remember in August 2008, you put on a small trade and then you went on vacation to your home town and couldn't get access to your computer. When you returned, you found that you had lots and lots of pips. It has given me an idea. Perhaps I will go on summer vacation here without my computer and see if I have lots of pips on my AU trade when I get back....
yes it is, my friend! of course it is worth to try this one, but you know, TP is always the most important thing to be set. When to close our position? This is hard to say. But what I am sure is if we consider it too much, the result is, not... BTW, I will tell you that that trade at August 2008 is a demo one not real one...

Au has supported by 21ema of weekly chart, it must crack it to form a bearish trend, just compare to Aug. 2008.
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And anything could happen, I do have confidence that price would fallen down deeply, but it's only 18th Dec. now, look at monthly chart, it still may pull back from this engulf pattern to form a haramy with cross which is alao a strong reverse pattern, at this case, our sl will be touched but it still need to focus on market to find proper entry point to short it for a middle-term trade.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,677
  • Dec 18, 2009 12:49am Dec 18, 2009 12:49am
Quoting Palmer
Out of the $Yen net pips = 0....Funny stuff there
oh, my friend, I just told you my feeling of $Y, not to prepare to trade it. This pairs is really tough to be traded. I think if the big bullish trend is coming, we will miss it already and can't find any proper entry point
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,678
  • Dec 18, 2009 12:52am Dec 18, 2009 12:52am
Quoting time1300
closed 4/10th of position for 35 pips, I will close 4/10 before bed and let the last 2 run till around noon and with BE for stop loss.
Good management, what makes me feel confused is why GU doesn't become bearish just like other pairs?
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,679
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:01am Dec 18, 2009 1:01am
Quoting lukis
Saka,
Xeneric,

Don't you think that AU moves different way than EU against USD? I also watch this trade but it seems to me that AU is stronger that EU in the end of Dec. Can recover and could it be false breakout of the trend or prolonged sideways?

What do you think ?
lukis, I have anaylsed this pairs at weely and monthly chart together. Under such big TF, if price forms a engulf or haramy with cross pattern, it will be a strong reverse signal, it have high probability to fallen down deeply. Of course price may retrace back and form a haramy or haramy with cross. But after all, despite what pattern it will form, the reverse signal at big TF is on the card. What we need to do is to find proper entry point to short it with proper MM.

At last I want to say, Phillip's strategy is short term one, but we just a little greedy to want to obtain much more profit from this case, under proper MM, we won't be blew out, why not have a try!
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,680
  • Edited 1:48am Dec 18, 2009 1:19am | Edited 1:48am
Quoting saka
Good management, what makes me feel confused is why GU doesn't become bearish just like other pairs?
GU is not as bearish as the other pairs because UK employment figures are improving. The UK economy has also been very bad but now it appears that the economy is improving compared with the last few years.
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