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  • #13,561
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:04pm Dec 17, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Heres a trade I liked in Audusd but couldn't afford to take on the added risk. Surely, I'll be watching closely.
Yes that one looks great in a H4, two pinbars now and a D1 TL just below.
  • #13,562
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:18pm Dec 17, 2009 2:18pm
That Jamie Coleman blog is sweet!

You've been following it for awhile?

Thank you,

Donnie
  • #13,563
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:10pm Dec 17, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting uraceulose
That Jamie Coleman blog is sweet!

You've been following it for awhile?

Thank you,

Donnie

I have been following his blog for nearly two years. I think he has the best free market commentary site out there. However, its really just for entertainment value and cementing ideas. There is no way I could trade off any of his information its really just gossip.
  • #13,564
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:15pm Dec 17, 2009 3:15pm
Here is a wrap-up of eurusd on a pivotal day for s&r traders

Written by Jamie Coleman
December 17, 2009 at 21:03 GMT

A steady afternoon grind unfolded taking EUR/USD back into the 1.4360s, absorbing some big offers along the way. Once UK bank is rumored to have sold a half-yard in the 1.4330s only to see the rally extend more than 30 pips from those levels. Mid-East names were rumored buyers. EUR/USD settled back to 1.4345 at the close.
  • #13,565
  • Dec 17, 2009 8:07pm Dec 17, 2009 8:07pm
I'm closing the long eurusd here and I will reassess after the euro ifo report is released.
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  • #13,566
  • Dec 18, 2009 6:20am Dec 18, 2009 6:20am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I have been following his blog for nearly two years. I think he has the best free market commentary site out there. However, its really just for entertainment value and cementing ideas. There is no way I could trade off any of his information its really just gossip.

If possible could you please share blog link? Thanks!
  • #13,567
  • Dec 18, 2009 10:05am Dec 18, 2009 10:05am
1.Any one think the euro is a buy down here? Daily ATR is 141 so a large stop is required.

2. The blog is forexlive.com
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  • #13,568
  • Dec 18, 2009 10:28am Dec 18, 2009 10:28am
I think the bottom is in. Dax hit its objective of filling the overnight gap. As long as the dax and short dated treasuries can stay near these levels. And there is no flight to quality bid, these are very attractive levels in the eurusd.
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  • #13,569
  • Dec 18, 2009 10:59am Dec 18, 2009 10:59am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I think the bottom is in. Dax hit its objective of filling the overnight gap. As long as the dax and short dated treasuries can stay near these levels. And there is no flight to quality bid, these are very attractive levels in the eurusd.
GW,
For what it's worth, I'm long at 4270. We'll see if it holds.
jtdt777
Balance in Everything
  • #13,570
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:38pm Dec 18, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting jtdt777
GW,
For what it's worth, I'm long at 4270. We'll see if it holds.
jtdt777
For the educational benefit of all would you care to comment why you entered at the level you entered at?
  • #13,571
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:41pm Dec 18, 2009 1:41pm
I'm going to close my long here upon the test of the broken range. I wanted more but its Friday and I'm not going to overstay my welcome.
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  • #13,572
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:16pm Dec 18, 2009 2:16pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
For the educational benefit of all would you care to comment why you entered at the level you entered at?
GW, I am not the traditional No Brainer Trader. I trade mostly short day trades. Very seldom will I leave a live trade going before I go to bed.

I combine James16 PA trading, No Brainer trades by BRV and a host of others that I've accumulated over the last 3 years.

Reasons for the trade:
I caught 36 pips on the way down and was actively looking for the retrace. Originally thought it would be at 1.4300 since it's an even and it seemed to be prior support. Almost got caught but held my finger off the button and just waited.

When the drop hit the wall at 4270 I started watching. It held for 5 bars. Sellers hit it again on the 6th (gold) bar but the buyers jumped right back in. Pin Bar developed at gold arrow. Buyers kept it going for a few bars but sellers came back for a couple. Buyers were stronger so I entered at the green arrow which in Elliot Wave language is bottom of wave 2. A good place to enter as long as you are pretty comfortable that it's the bottom.

Rode out wave 3 then wave 4 and when wave 5 came up short I bailed out at Red arrow. Netted 34 pips.

Eur/Usd + 70 pips
Eur/Jpy +36
Gbp/Use + 24

9 orders for the day. 5 winners, 3 at B/E, 1 at a loss.

Good day for a Friday.

JT
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Balance in Everything
  • #13,573
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:35pm Dec 18, 2009 2:35pm
JTDTT,


Thank you for your explanation. It is always an educational experience for me to see how another trader enters his positions. We came to the same conclusion in a totally different manner. I think those are some of the best trades if multiple different methods all indicate the same direction. Of course, as long as no event risk spoils the trade.

You stated when price hit 4270 you started to watch and then price hit a wall. Prices constantly hit a wall in the fx market. Why was 4270 a significant level for you or was it a pure short term price rejection play?

Anyhow your comments are appreciated in this thread feel free to post any and all of your ideas. This thread appears to have gone cold.
  • #13,574
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:46pm Dec 18, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
JTDTT,


Thank you for your explanation. It is always an educational experience for me to see how another trader enters his positions. We came to the same conclusion in a totally different manner. I think those are some of the best trades if multiple different methods all indicate the same direction. Of course, as long as no event risk spoils the trade.

You stated when price hit 4270 you started to watch and then price hit a wall. Prices constantly hit a wall in the fx market. Why was 4270 a significant level for you or was it a pure short...
GW,
Being a day trader, I don't like the risk associated with large stop losses. So I usually will use 20-40 pips SL. I have been burnt quite a few times relying solely on a hard S/R line. When a pair is hot, sometimes it will blow right by the S/R without even a hickup.

So I usually just wait on the 1-2 retrace to start before before I feel the retrace is ready. Or possible a long James16 pin bar.

Would be happy to discuss trade strategies and even share some trades next week. It will be low volume but we might be able to scalp a few pips here and there. I am always open to new strategies and money management schemes.

I am currently looking at a system that Fudomyo showed us on another thread. He uses spread plus 3 pips as his stop. He's a true scalper.

Regards,
JT
Balance in Everything
  • #13,575
  • Dec 18, 2009 3:26pm Dec 18, 2009 3:26pm
JT,

You could not be more correct s&r levels get crushed all the time. It may be a economic release, a geopolitical event or good old fashioned stop runs. On Wednesday night several key support levels got annihilated.

You mentioned you wait for a short term reaction at a key level. Even this can be dangerous because many times the market will trap traders by giving a trap bounce at the key level than consolidating and than breaking through the key level.

Luckily, I have accumulated a large enough account so I can utilize a stop so I'm not effected by short term gyrations. I don't demand or expect the market to make me an instant winner on my positions. I have been around way to long for that kind of wishful thinking. I also know my main objective is to extract pips from the market. This means my opportunity to extract pips may come while I'm in the red on my initial position or while I'm in the black. This means I have to scale in. I need to work my position from below and above or I will lose a lot of opportunities.

I have studied the markets for a very long time and I can tell pretty often where professionals such as Deutsche Bank or UBS (market makers not speculators) want to accumulate inventory or liquidate inventory. Sometimes this inventory will take a bit of heat just because thats the nature of the market. But nine out of ten times if adverse excursion is not due to a fundamental report or a geopolitical event price will almost always backfill and let these key market participants unload their inventory at semi-favorable levels.

I want to make it clear I don't recommend a martingale approach that is a sure way to blow up an account. I recommend a well planned scale in approach.
  • #13,576
  • Edited 11:58am Dec 19, 2009 11:27am | Edited 11:58am
Any one have thoughts regarding eurusds doji that took place on friday.

Do you view it as sign of further trend continuation or a sign of upcoming consolidation?

Its my view that a key reversal won't be staged at these levels merely because of the fundamentals that are currently influencing it. Its quite possible corporates will start to hedge their exposure to euros and that could create another leg down. Ah, the beauty of being a short-term trader you don't need to weigh all these things you just react to day to day flows.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,577
  • Dec 19, 2009 3:39pm Dec 19, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Any one have thoughts regarding eurusds doji that took place on friday.

Do you view it as sign of further trend continuation or a sign of upcoming consolidation?

Its my view that a key reversal won't be staged at these levels merely because of the fundamentals that are currently influencing it. Its quite possible corporates will start to hedge their exposure to euros and that could create another leg down. Ah, the beauty of being a short-term trader you don't need to weigh all these things you just react to day to day flows.
Here's a look at the weekly chart on E/U. The current retrace bounced on the 38.2 fibo with support from July and August bars.

Looking at the weekly chart through EWT eyes... the A wave down meets the criteria for a completed A wave but with the velocity/acceleration it could have an extension or two. Needless to say, once the turn is made, it's 3 waves on a slow bounce or a very quick EWT flat wave of 3-3-5.

On the daily chart, Stoch's are deep into oversold territory and RSI is oversold.

Comparing E/U to G/U I see some like points. G/U also ended the day in a doji. It's at a hard support level and ready to begin a wave 4 retrace.

For next week, I think I'm going to look for price action on GBP/USD at the 6100-6180 level to see if I can ride a long retrace back up to the daily TL.
Additionally, looking at E/U for a bounce off the 4400 level. There's some pretty significant resistance at the spike PB on 12-28-08.

Being a day trader, I want to take advantage of wave 3 and C runs then I'm outta there. Maybe one day I'll have the guts to stick to my convictions while watching a 5K-10K draw down happening. Most of the great traders have a stomach for it, but at this writing, I DON'T.

Regards,
JT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Balance in Everything
  • #13,578
  • Dec 21, 2009 1:01pm Dec 21, 2009 1:01pm
hello everyone,

short USD/JPY 92,316 to 92,577

what are thinking about it ??
  • #13,579
  • Dec 21, 2009 3:23pm Dec 21, 2009 3:23pm
Newbie,

Post a picture of a chart or something of why you're thinking that and it will always help you get a lot more feedback...

Notice how that's what all the other guys are doing?

Donnie
  • #13,580
  • Dec 21, 2009 3:54pm Dec 21, 2009 3:54pm
Quoting FX#newbie
hello everyone,

short USD/JPY 92,316 to 92,577

what are thinking about it ??
FX# Newbie,
Here's your daily chart on U/J with PZ's and TL. Remember those are subjective and drawn based on what I see.

Why don't you elaborate on why you want to go short between 92.31 - 92.57?
JT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd-jpy 12-21-09_daily.gif Size: 17 KB
Balance in Everything
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