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  • #13,541
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:56pm Dec 14, 2009 2:56pm
Quoting pipimo88
Potential 1-2-3 break on A/U on 1H. I'm looking to go long at the confluence of 5M trendline and 5M bucket at .9065 with a tight stop (18-20 pips). If stopped out, then will wait to go long around the .8975 (entry long on 5M bucket there). Targeting .9175 zone and not looking for that break today since the area has 2 things: (1) 5M bucket which started the move down today and (2) ADR reached for today. Will look for a small rejection there and re-entry long and looking for the break tomorrow.

Attachment
.9175 looked a good call..stalling there at the moment, if theres anymore life in it .. ive got .9190 to .9210 marked up for a short 62% fibb.
  • #13,542
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:10pm Dec 14, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting sam0182
Watching USD/CAD for shorts in the 1.0613-1.0620 range.

15min shown below...

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/1513/ucadhs.th.png
nice one .. heres another possible short for eur/usd 1hr ..

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  • #13,543
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:12pm Dec 14, 2009 3:12pm
Quoting booker66
nice one .. heres another possible short for eur/usd 1hr ..

Attachment
Thanks, didn't see that on the EU. Would certainly help my UCAD case.

Thanks Booker!
  • #13,544
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:13pm Dec 14, 2009 3:13pm
and a long on usd/chf ..

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  • #13,545
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:21pm Dec 14, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting sam0182
Thanks, didn't see that on the EU. Would certainly help my UCAD case.

Thanks Booker!

cheers sam .. hope it goes to plan ! LoL..
  • #13,546
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:40pm Dec 14, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting booker66
and a long on usd/chf ..

Attachment
That looks like a mirror image of the E/U short. Do you trade those individually or taking correlation into consideration, skip one or the other?
  • #13,547
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:41pm Dec 14, 2009 6:41pm
Quoting pipimo88
That looks like a mirror image of the E/U short. Do you trade those individually or taking correlation into consideration, skip one or the other?
If I can comment on this, the USD/CHF has a smaller daily range when compared with EUR/USD, so when I want slower action for either tighter stops or heavier lots, I'll sometimes roll with USD/CHF as opposed to EUR/USD. Of course, EUR/USD has the tightest spreads but with most of my trades, a couple pips difference is negligible.

Overall though, you would be doubling your risk by making the mirror trades with both currencies, as you pointed out.

My two cents Looking forward to what Booker says.
  • #13,548
  • Dec 15, 2009 1:33am Dec 15, 2009 1:33am
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  • #13,549
  • Dec 15, 2009 7:46am Dec 15, 2009 7:46am
Quoting pipimo88
That looks like a mirror image of the E/U short. Do you trade those individually or taking correlation into consideration, skip one or the other?
interesting thoughts sam .. i dont have any particular strategy with these two pairs but obviously if you have that kind of correlation it gives you confidence that everyones singing from the same hymn sheet.. coupled with a stronger dollar in the background it looked a good bet..

i only had thoughts of taking one trade and the usd/chf looked the one most likely to trigger first so i set an order before going to bed at
10306 .. missed it by a couple of pips . gutted but on to the next .

by the way the gbp /usd has no correlation at all with these two pairs anyone any idea whats happening .. looks like its coiling like a spring .
  • #13,550
  • Edited 2:15pm Dec 15, 2009 1:39pm | Edited 2:15pm
The fibs can be argued...I drew them from what appears to be the last major support. The S&R, however, is clear.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...th_eudaily.jpg
  • #13,551
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:14pm Dec 15, 2009 2:14pm
Quoting sam0182
The fibs can be argued...I drew them from the from appears to be the last major support. The S&R, however, is clear.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...th_eudaily.jpg
Sam, Based on the velocity of the move down, I would expect a large bounce off or near the 4500 level. Thanks for the heads up.
Balance in Everything
  • #13,552
  • Dec 16, 2009 10:29pm Dec 16, 2009 10:29pm
any thoughts???
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  • #13,553
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:24am Dec 17, 2009 11:24am
I like longs here with a 137 pip stop. Initial target 1.4500.
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  • #13,554
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:51am Dec 17, 2009 11:51am
It looks reasonable Guerrillawar, but I thought the same earlier about 1.445.

If you have reasonable R:R and you manage your risk to substain a 100+ pt stop, then you're good. Is this a no-brainer? Eh...
  • #13,555
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:14pm Dec 17, 2009 12:14pm
Here is my reasoning why this level is different than 1.4445.

1. 1.4445 is a level that would only be played in a aggressive dollar weakness environment. I say this because the true supply demand imbalance took place at 1.4405. This current environment is one of dollar strength on a chart and fundamentally. Interest rate differentials have become a key driver of the dollar recently.

2. On a tactical note I liked the 1.4405 level but one thing told me stay away. Time. This was a very strong trend and dealers most definitely wanted to facilitate orders during the London-New York overlap at these lower levels. The markets main purpose is to transact as much business as possible and put as many traders as possible in wrong positions.

3. My technique was to let all the dust settle and let the herd buy the dollar at elevated levels. Once London closed pretty much all the selling for this knee jerk reaction has already taken place. Markets stalled right near my level so it was a no brainer short the dollar at these levels.

4. Daily ATR as of yesterdays close is 138 for eurusd. A move of 1.5 x ATR takes price right around 1.4325
  • #13,556
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:34pm Dec 17, 2009 12:34pm
Welcome back GW.
  • #13,557
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:38pm Dec 17, 2009 12:38pm
Thank you RC its good to be back.
  • #13,558
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:47pm Dec 17, 2009 12:47pm
Heres a recent blog entry written by the guy who used to run thomson fx hub that pertains to the recent dollar conversation. By the way go to his blog I haven't found anything better that is free.

Steady EUR/USD sales being absorbed
Written by Jamie Coleman
December 17, 2009 at 18:42 GMT
Traders report significant amounts of EUR/USD being sold over the last twenty minutes or so but prices continue to grind higher. We trade now at 1.4337 after bouncing from a new low at 1.4305. Resistance is up in the 1.4375 area.
  • #13,559
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:50pm Dec 17, 2009 12:50pm
Maybe like me, many have closed EU short positions because EURCHF is in the SNB intervention zone.
  • #13,560
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:01pm Dec 17, 2009 1:01pm
Heres a trade I liked in Audusd but couldn't afford to take on the added risk. Surely, I'll be watching closely.
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