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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

The System (Irony included) 1,175 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #12,721
  • Dec 16, 2009 7:48am Dec 16, 2009 7:48am
Quoting bootsyjam
My initial thoughts are not to worry about the low impact ones on the FF calender but stay away from any Med or High?

Thanks

R
I would agree with that. Don't enter positions near news marked in red on the FF calendar, even more so if a few are grouped for release at the same time.
Those in orange, not so bad but can still cause a surprise.

Biggest moves tend to be on on US non Farm payroll figures (on Fridays once a month) and interest rate decisions (not so much recently due to policies of low rates and a lack of any interest changes).

Also watch out for when Central Bankers (FOMC chairman, Bank of England, Committe memeber etc) make speeches too. They don't release figures, but 5 minutes in they can say something that can make a huge impact :"economy going well ladedahblahblahblah green shoots of recovery, and to aid this we will add to our quantative easing program." Watch the markets go on that one

Even if the news doesn't swing the market much, spreads will widen before and immediately after big news releases, so if you have tight stops then they're more likely to be hit as the spread widens massively and hits your levels, even though the price might not actually be moving.[/quote]


Bootsjam,

Thanks for taking the time to offer your advice. When you lack experience it really helps to get confirmation that your thinking along the right lines.

Cheers for the input!

Reesy
  • #12,722
  • Dec 16, 2009 7:54am Dec 16, 2009 7:54am
Quoting coronajazz
Two trades so far. First played G+ stopped out bellow the level line for -9. Second #2, managed to get out with -5. Black lines are entries, red lines are exits with a loss.

I decided, on my own discretion to not take anymore breakouts to the longside, because the next one would be fifth oportunity for long entry from the London open. All of them with lack of momentum , except maybe the first one, but that was inside a bracket.

Eyes to the downside now. Short order 1.4559.

excude me if im wrong but for me both trades look more like a 1-2-3 swing than a BB. And for 1-2-3 Swing we do not trade the continuation only the very first one and that was a profitable one. Sure its hinsdside so not very valuable.
  • #12,723
  • Dec 16, 2009 8:06am Dec 16, 2009 8:06am
Quoting MJurban
excude me if im wrong but for me both trades look more like a 1-2-3 swing than a BB. And for 1-2-3 Swing we do not trade the continuation only the very first one and that was a profitable one. Sure its hinsdside so not very valuable.
Thanks MJurban. Sure it is valuable. I mess up pretty often due tu lack of experience. First trade (-9) it may qualify as bracket, but the second one was surely avoidable if I had this in mind.
You wont survive without preserving!!!
  • #12,724
  • Dec 16, 2009 8:25am Dec 16, 2009 8:25am
HI there, this is my 3rd post in this thread..have been silently following this thread for quite some time now...though still a newbie and still learning. i took this position few hours ago, any comments are very welcome.

Red lines + 3 pips are where i trailed my stop, if this beast turns i will enter since we will have a (1-2-3)..

Cheers,

Alex
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  • #12,725
  • Dec 16, 2009 8:26am Dec 16, 2009 8:26am
Out of the short trade with +15 for a brakeeven day. Not too bad.
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You wont survive without preserving!!!
  • #12,726
  • Edited 8:59am Dec 16, 2009 8:41am | Edited 8:59am
My Sell position stopped for +14 pips

and my buy stop triggered...its getting higher and higher..once i saw a pull back i will definitely set my SL

Cheers,

Alex
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  • #12,727
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:42am Dec 16, 2009 9:42am
Hi guys

sorry if its off plan but sometimes fibs work like clockwork see attached

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  • #12,728
  • Edited 10:09am Dec 16, 2009 9:57am | Edited 10:09am
Quoting Stoffer
sorry if its off plan but sometimes fibs work like clockwork see attached
I can imagine what fx should have said about this...
  • #12,729
  • Dec 16, 2009 10:06am Dec 16, 2009 10:06am
again sorry if its off thread just exchanging ideas, won't do it again and may work as bait for fx
  • #12,730
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:28pm Dec 16, 2009 3:28pm
Stoffer!

FX or not.

Everything works in hindsight.

Ask Feb about the market cycle!!!
You wont survive without preserving!!!
  • #12,731
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:31pm Dec 16, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting Stoffer
again sorry if its off thread just exchanging ideas, won't do it again and may work as bait for fx

If I know Fx, it won't bait him at all...
he'll just ignore you!
Reliable rumour has it that yesterday he was +450 for the month.
$urvive, Pre$erve & RESPECT THE TEACHER
  • #12,732
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:55am Dec 17, 2009 12:55am
what a nite
making money while sleeping. The order was triggert yesterday evening and sl was not hit.
When i woke up this morning trade was 130 pips in profit, closed at 1.4400.

new shorts closed B/E
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  • #12,733
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:01am Dec 17, 2009 1:01am
Quoting MJurban
what a nite
making money while sleeping. The order was triggert yesterday evening and sl was not hit.
When i woke up this morning trade was 130 pips in profit, closed at 1.4400.

new shorts closed B/E
Congratulations. That's a perfect Russian roulette. By the way, playing that you will shoot your head. For sure.
  • #12,734
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:04am Dec 17, 2009 1:04am
Quoting elizo
Congratulations. That's a perfect Russian roulette. By the way, playing that you will shoot your head. For sure.
hey, i had a tight SL, so no problem at all
  • #12,735
  • Edited 1:32am Dec 17, 2009 1:16am | Edited 1:32am
Quoting MJurban
hey, i had a tight SL, so no problem at all


Lucky result - very nice. But listen to Elizo - you were waaaay off plan! This philosophy of trading is about habits - and that is a pretty bad one to get into IMHO. If you wash, rinse and repeat this one that bullet will make its way into the chamber. Everything on this thread is System II. Is this the example we want others to follow? Have to say though the exit was a good #1!
$urvive, Pre$erve & RESPECT THE TEACHER
  • #12,736
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:23am Dec 17, 2009 1:23am
good morning to all. have a great piphunt today
looks like a litle bracket what do you think?
"Even a million miles journey starts with one single step"
  • #12,737
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:38am Dec 17, 2009 1:38am
Quoting MJurban
what a nite
making money while sleeping. The order was triggert yesterday evening and sl was not hit.
When i woke up this morning trade was 130 pips in profit, closed at 1.4400.

new shorts closed B/E
I have to agree with Elizo and Mc as well...

In my opinion the only way that would fit System II for doing that is if you play the BB and after offseting the risk with your SL into BE, at least, then go to sleep and let it be....
It wouldn't be the perfect managment, of course, but at least you are assured that you are preserving your capital, if nothing strange happpens..... lol
  • #12,738
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:48am Dec 17, 2009 1:48am
I ve noticed several times after a big move like this happens it is followed by a choppy period, which is normal because of

1. People dont want to short because they think its too late.

2. People dont want to long because they are scared of the big move down.

I have my long order for now at 1.4429 anyway.

What do you think? Would it be wise to sit on your hands for a while?
You wont survive without preserving!!!
  • #12,739
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:04am Dec 17, 2009 2:04am
Quoting coronajazz
I ve noticed several times after a big move like this happens it is followed by a choppy period, which is normal because of

1. People dont want to short because they think its too late.

2. People dont want to long because they are scared of the big move down.

I have my long order for now at 1.4429 anyway.

What do you think? Would it be wise to sit on your hands for a while?
IMO just walk the walk brother,
Your waiting will be for an uncertain of time.
The nature of this methode is you cannot missed any opportunity.
Who knows, today ms market give you the way ?
Remember,.. sometimes when fxachiles said he missed a moved, he would pain in his stomach,
he rather lost than missed an opportunity.
  • #12,740
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:09am Dec 17, 2009 2:09am
Quoting coronajazz
I ve noticed several times after a big move like this happens it is followed by a choppy period, which is normal because of

1. People dont want to short because they think its too late.

2. People dont want to long because they are scared of the big move down.

I have my long order for now at 1.4429 anyway.

What do you think? Would it be wise to sit on your hands for a while?

In my opinion 24 for the long with a 2G+ - it's a test not a marriage. At the moment I would be very reluctant to touch anything above the LL for short. Don't want to get chopped!
This is a consolidation pattern which is good news. Runners are a bit like orgasms - you need to rest a while before embarking on the next one!!!
$urvive, Pre$erve & RESPECT THE TEACHER
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