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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,641
  • Edited 10:33am Dec 15, 2009 9:38am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting ejiexe
I have also prepare for a breakout if it happens. I hope the chart so the entry and TP
On the daily GBPUSD chart you can find a head and shoulders formation. If the price beak down this strong support, we can do a short trade to 1.57.
  • #21,642
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:36pm Dec 15, 2009 2:36pm
Just a few random thoughts on the EU right here....stressing the word random...

This pair is trending well to the downside and has another gap to fill with the 8ema so I'm looking for a stall or another pop up. 1.4500 was hit (4503...close enough for me) and if this bottom doesn't hold then the next major downside target might be the 4380 area. I looked at the weekly chart and saw an area of congestion around June to July where price hung around for a while so I used that for a Fib low. 4380 is the next 38.2 Fib # to the downside. The 4hr chart just looks like a textbook downtrend per that timeframe. Don't pay attention the Bollinger Bands I have on the chart.
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  • #21,643
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:16pm Dec 15, 2009 3:16pm
My thought on the GBP/USD. 200 SMA is holding up well on the daily, see 1st chart. The consolidation can be seen on the 1 hour. If price breaks the consolidation period, I go short.
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  • #21,644
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:22pm Dec 15, 2009 3:22pm
Morelands:

Even during those channels doldrums there's opportunity on the lower timeframes. I just set MT4 to sound an alarm when those upper and lower areas are hit then look for the signal on those lower timeframes for an entry back into the channel....

I agree that pair is coiling like a snake ready to strike.
  • #21,645
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:34pm Dec 15, 2009 4:34pm
Because the channel is narrowing I think things are going to happen sooner rather than later, so I would be apprehensive to go long. Short however at the top of the channel, I totally agree. Do you use the 5 min and if so I'm assuming your looking at a strong candle(s) pulling away as opposed to divergence or crossing of a trendline.
By the way, it's good to have someone else on the east coast who can post during the evening hours b/c that is when I'm able to do the same. Enjoy having you back
Raymond
  • #21,646
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:20pm Dec 15, 2009 5:20pm
In this case since it's a narrowing channel = triangle, there 'shouldn't' be any double or triple tops or bottoms so yes it would be the candle formation retreating back into the channel. In the case of a double or triple top or bottom channel, then I'd look for divergence with the RSI or stochs. The width of the channel would dictate the timeframe...a narrow channel with maybe a 20 or 30 pip width maybe the 5 min, a 50 pip + + width maybe the 15....
  • #21,647
  • Edited 11:03pm Dec 15, 2009 9:24pm | Edited 11:03pm
Quoting saka
I did stay beside computer, but I didn't enter eu's TC trade 8:00, These are the reasons.

What's more, I did consider the news French CPI released at 8:45 GMT+1. The interest rate of each country is focused by market, traders want to know the pressure of inflation to judge the police of central banks. I thought that it might as expected of French CPI, and if it is better than expected, I still didn't know how market reacted to this. So I missed this trade.

Now you know that French CPI is 0.1%, worse than expected ratio 0.3% and USA's PPI...
Hi Saka,

Australian GDP fell short of the mark today so the AUD has fallen below the important .9000 level. It may drag the EU with it especially if all the news out of Europe today is not so good. However all eyes will be on today's US Fed rate decision. Although it is unlikely that they will increase interest rates, we can find out whether they are hawkish and what plans they have for next year.
  • #21,648
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:27pm Dec 15, 2009 11:27pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The small candles making a bit of a round top was my confirmation. I knew that it was going to move.
em, it seems that this is my mistake. At least I should have set my sl above daily trend line along with 21ema. I have made a serie of successful trades. If I make a 3% risk lose, that's a little more losing. I was too fear.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,649
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:40pm Dec 15, 2009 11:40pm
Quoting Palmer
Just a few random thoughts on the EU right here....stressing the word random...

This pair is trending well to the downside and has another gap to fill with the 8ema so I'm looking for a stall or another pop up. 1.4500 was hit (4503...close enough for me) and if this bottom doesn't hold then the next major downside target might be the 4380 area. I looked at the weekly chart and saw an area of congestion around June to July where price hung around for a while so I used that for a Fib low. 4380 is the next 38.2 Fib # to the downside. The 4hr chart...
Hi, Palmer

It is a typical break of a long bullish trend line. Usually at this case, price would be much more intensive falling down than it's 45 degrees flat bullish trend before, because the sl settings are touched one by one to make down trend very fiercely. And you're right, at this kind of trend, Bulling bars are useless than MAs which means that 4h strategy is a great one traders should use.

I have a big confidence that price would touch 38.2 Fib. But before that, two places are where price might stall there first. That's rectangle A which is 1.4449 where is the upper box line of the big consolidation formed from June to September. Another is B where is 200sma of daily chart.

It is wise to wait price to retrace and short there at this kind of trend.
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,650
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:46pm Dec 15, 2009 11:46pm
Quoting saka
em, it seems that this is my mistake. At least I should have set my sl above daily trend line along with 21ema. I have made a serie of successful trades. If I make a 3% risk lose, that's a little more losing. I was too fear.
Hi
That was no mistake. It is about what you are willing to risk. A smaller stop is not always less risk. A larger stop can be less risk if there is volatility at the current price action. The small candles showed me less volatility therefore I could take the risk on a small stoploss. Price have also came off a retracement from a breakout level earlier indicating the more weighted direction was short.
  • #21,651
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:57pm Dec 15, 2009 11:57pm
Quoting xeneric
Hi Saka,

Australian GDP fell short of the mark today so the AUD has fallen below the important .9000 level. It may drag the EU with it especially if all the news out of Europe today is not so good. However all eyes will be on today's US Fed rate decision. Although it is unlikely that they will increase interest rates, we can find out whether they are hawkish and what plans they have for next year.
dear Xen

You're very smart of this. We both find that all the world's economic indicators are worse than expected except US' which is quite better. Smart FX traders would smell something from this.

I darw a dialy chart anaylsis of AU, it is very same with eu but eu has cracked deeper than au. It is a clear sHs with a falling 3 sisters pattern, 0.8942 is the neck line of sHs, if price cracks this level, sHs pattern would become a successful one, meanwhile, au would drop deeply for this is a typicail bearish trend in middle term, just remember last year's trend!

But everything could happen. We should open our eyes to focus on market, if proper 4h TC pattern forms, it is worth to open short position with proper MM.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,652
  • Dec 16, 2009 12:05am Dec 16, 2009 12:05am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Hi
That was no mistake. It is about what you are willing to risk. A smaller stop is not always less risk. A larger stop can be less risk if there is volatility at the current price action. The small candles showed me less volatility therefore I could take the risk on a small stoploss. Price have also came off a retracement from a breakout level earlier indicating the more weighted direction was short.
Bingo!

At this level of trading, I feel that there is no such 'big' trend trades. The most important thing is MM, what makes you to put your trigger is probability of success of this trade, the way to make progress is a serie of successful trades.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,653
  • Dec 16, 2009 6:08pm Dec 16, 2009 6:08pm
I just looked at my charts and was totally surprised by the strength of the dollar at this hour, 03:00. I almost never trade during these hours and I did not tonight. Did anyone catch the EUR or is everyone asleep?
Raymond
  • #21,654
  • Edited 7:29pm Dec 16, 2009 7:13pm | Edited 7:29pm
Quoting Morelands
I just looked at my charts and was totally surprised by the strength of the dollar at this hour, 03:00. I almost never trade during these hours and I did not tonight. Did anyone catch the EUR or is everyone asleep?
Raymond
Hi Raymond,
I was watching the EURUSD as well, but didn't take the trade... I also don't like to trade during the Asian hours due to less volatility. I also worried to short as EU seems right on my daily fibo 23.6.
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  • #21,655
  • Dec 16, 2009 8:15pm Dec 16, 2009 8:15pm
Hello everyone,

I hope you all are having a very warm and prosperous holidays and a greater new years to follow.

Welcome back Palmer, great to see you here and hope to see you more often friend.

I wanted to post my trade here which I did on the Eur/Usd. I see from the post the charts are very similar to mine and yall see what I have seen.

I went short on the break of that daily trend line and past the 89sma and price pulled back to it followed by a engulfing bearish candle closing below the lows and when I entered and as you can see I have managed my trade and my price has almost hit my final price target by the 200 sma.

On the 4 hour you can see my entry confirmed by the TC on the MACD

On another note:

The mention of money management has been talked about in the recent pages by Saka and Phillip and I couldn't agree more how important money management is in these volatile markets. focus on the high probability trades and MM and you are sure to succeed.

Happy holidays
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #21,656
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:01pm Dec 16, 2009 9:01pm
I am a little late when the trend began, but it was still worth to enter. I have posted an anaylsis of daily chart of au. At this morning Beijing time, eu cracked deeply for more SLs had been touched. But other pairs haven't followed immediately. I saw au was about to crack the neck line, I based on 4h TC to open a short posistion with 5% risk. Enter at 0.8923, sl is at 0.9020, I anticipate price would touch 23.6% retracement, if there is something that seems not very good, I will close some position or all manually.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,657
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:26pm Dec 16, 2009 9:26pm
Quoting saka
I am a little late when the trend began, but it was still worth to enter. I have posted an anaylsis of daily chart of au. At this morning Beijing time, eu cracked deeply for more SLs had been touched. But other pairs haven't followed immediately. I saw au was about to crack the neck line, I based on 4h TC to open a short posistion with 5% risk. Enter at 0.8923, sl is at 0.9020, I anticipate price would touch 23.6% retracement, if there is something that seems not very good, I will close some position or all manually.

I took the AUD trade and I'm already out. I'll post later, similar analysis
Raymond
  • #21,658
  • Dec 16, 2009 11:02pm Dec 16, 2009 11:02pm
Hello everyone,

maybe it is a dum question but has anyone who follows this thread found a way to set an alarm when a TC occurs? I know nothing about metatrader programming so any suggestions on which track to follow would be much appreciated!! Thank you!! Next year I don't want to miss so many TC's! I could even wake up at 4.00 AM for a nice TC!
  • #21,659
  • Dec 16, 2009 11:21pm Dec 16, 2009 11:21pm
Here is the trade of my AUD trade. The daily chart you can see several things: sHs with the 3 little sisters in the last shoulder. I wanted to see a break of the 89 MA and the neckline of the sHs. There is also a TC. My profit target was the 121% fibo line which was conservative, but I was trying to sleep and didn't want to worry about reaching the 138% fibo.
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  • #21,660
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:50am Dec 17, 2009 4:50am
Quoting baco75
Hello everyone,

maybe it is a dum question but has anyone who follows this thread found a way to set an alarm when a TC occurs? I know nothing about metatrader programming so any suggestions on which track to follow would be much appreciated!! Thank you!! Next year I don't want to miss so many TC's! I could even wake up at 4.00 AM for a nice TC!
baco:

If you have an idea where the 21ma is as far as price goes just set MT4 to sound an alert when the price is hit. On the 4hr chart we're asleep for about 2 bars = 8 hours. Say the 21 is at 1.4500 and price is at 1.4420 in a strong rhythm downtrend. I'd set the alarm for the bid to be > than 1.4480. This will at least let you know that price is coming back up to the 21. What you then want is to see price come back down, that's the tricky part of the alarm. You then might have to reset the alarm for the bid to be < 1.4490 to wake you up again if price retreats. The initial up move can last for a couple of hours and might not work out for you during the day because of the loss of sleep. I use to to this a while back in the day but it caught up with me at around noon and would be very tired during the day. Again, the caveat is waiting for price to come back down....
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