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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,521
  • Dec 16, 2009 1:52pm Dec 16, 2009 1:52pm
I thinks it's going to go up and hit my 1.382 but if heads back down and hits my 0.000 then I lose but I will draw my next set of fibs on that losing candle. I also removed the inner fibs because I don't really use them. As you can see I am a Longterm trader. I will let you know how it plays out. This is how I walk my fibs, from winner to winner or winner to loser!!!:nerd:
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  • #4,522
  • Edited 2:09pm Dec 16, 2009 2:08pm | Edited 2:09pm
Quoting Checkz
I thinks it's going to go up and hit my 1.382 but if heads back down and hits my 0.000 then I lose but I will draw my next set of fibs on that losing candle. I also removed the inner fibs because I don't really use them. As you can see I am a Longterm trader. I will let you know how it plays out. This is how I walk my fibs, from winner to winner or winner to loser!!!:nerd:
More importantly what did Skunny refer to when he said -
Either the 138 or 162 get hit to some degree or what happens if not ?

This is a two way street, change in direction is a reverse trade and the price almost always retraces to a certain point.

Check your trades that didn't hit the 138 and reversed.
Where did they go to ?

Could you have traded the reversal before moving the Fib to the next candle ?
  • #4,523
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:26pm Dec 16, 2009 2:26pm
Quoting FX Compass
More importantly what did Skunny refer to when he said -
Either the 138 or 162 get hit to some degree or what happens if not ?

This is a two way street, change in direction is a reverse trade and the price almost always retraces to a certain point.

Check your trades that didn't hit the 138 and reversed.
Where did they go to ?

Could you have traded the reversal before moving the Fib to the next candle ?
This is the way I learned how to trade using Skunnys method it's not the only way it's just my spin on things. I just decided to draw my fibs on those that were losers and from there I began to establish a way to trade for myself. Im just sharing my take on things. The last chart I posted is A trade that im still in and it hasn't reach the 1.382 yet or reversed to hit the low.
  • #4,524
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:41pm Dec 16, 2009 2:41pm
Excellent thanks for the insite and the chart displays.

Jess

Quoting Checkz
This is the way I learned how to trade using Skunnys method it's not the only way it's just my spin on things. I just decided to draw my fibs on those that were losers and from there I began to establish a way to trade for myself. Im just sharing my take on things. The last chart I posted is A trade that im still in and it hasn't reach the 1.382 yet or reversed to hit the low.
Our AWESOME IMAGINATION is the true holy grail!
  • #4,525
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:55pm Dec 16, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting Checkz
Notice that on the 5th winning candle it didn't reach it's 1.382 fib ext. So I would then draw my next set of fibs on the candle that penetrated the opposite end causing the trade to be a losing one. Once I fib the losing candle I go back into Winning again. Sometimes you can run into a string of losers but if you fib them you will start to win again.
If I understand correctly, then there is 1 candle we are waiting for completion either way. This is a mechanical approach. Impressive. Thanks for sharing.

SK
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  • #4,526
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:57pm Dec 16, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting FX Compass
Skong, looks like the weekly 138 target is still in play.
Price has turned back down towards it at the 0 fib.
Very light volume - looks like everyone is off for christmas.
Yes. It might just make it.

Cheers
SK
  • #4,527
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:12pm Dec 16, 2009 3:12pm
Quoting skong
If I understand correctly, then there is 1 candle we are waiting for completion either way. This is a mechanical approach. Impressive. Thanks for sharing.

SK
Im in a wait and see mode. Again I must say that this is how I use Skunnys method. It may not be the way he intended for it to be used but it works for me. To me the completion is either a winner or a loser. I maybe wrong and totally way off based but im just trying to help! I think that alot of people gave up on Skunnys method because they thought that every trade they fibbed was going to be a winner so when they lost they thought that maybe there fib was in the wrong place. Also when some people started to profit from Skunnys method they either choose not to share what they learned or they tried to become the next Skunny by teaching in some mysterious fashion.
  • #4,528
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:16pm Dec 16, 2009 3:16pm
Quoting xmess7
Excellent thanks for the insite and the chart displays.

Jess
  • #4,529
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:39pm Dec 16, 2009 5:39pm
Snowing here, I'm sure an inch of snow will shut down the whole British transit system tomorrow and I get to make snowmen with my kids.

I think I sussed the whole swing fib thing out last night, certainly doing it on fixed time periods. It's interesting to see the different variations on this system. Compass, I initially thought you fibbed each day but if I'm not mistaken you use the last completed daily fibbed range then only move the fib when the current fib completes. Your next fib fits on the day that completes.

Looks like Checkz treats a completeion in one of two ways.
1. A winner at 138.2.
2. A trade that loses (reverses) and hits the opposite 100 or 0 depending on which end you are coming from.

Now me, I've only been moving the fib if it hits 138.2 on either be it winner or loser.

Now I am in the camp of compass for stops! Good thinking if you don't mind me saying and I now think Skunny hinted at this (yes Compass I think you tried to remind us of this earlier, I did notice!)

Checkz, for long term trading deeper stops are the norm but do you use the whole range, seems expensive. There again if this concept is that accurate then winners would appear to be highly probable.

Finally I post my latest take on EURUSD. It is an hourly chart zoomed out a bit to take in one weekly fib and one daily fib. This shows where I think current placement should be. I missed another short entry today at 1.4580, good convergence there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD161209.JPG Size: 206 KB


MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,530
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:45pm Dec 16, 2009 5:45pm
Quoting xmess7
Excellent thanks for the insite and the chart displays.

Jess
Hi xmess7. I've got Reminiscences of a Stockbroker but haven't got around to finishing it yet, too busy fibbling with myself. It is an intersting book though, I must finish it.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,531
  • Dec 16, 2009 6:01pm Dec 16, 2009 6:01pm
Has the penny dropped?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,532
  • Dec 16, 2009 6:10pm Dec 16, 2009 6:10pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Has the penny dropped?

MD.
Good to hear from you.
Errrr, No mate. I've still got work to do. Going through the posts again. Maybe you could courier some IQ my way. lol .
If you have it sussed, them a trading plan is in order.

SK
  • #4,533
  • Dec 16, 2009 6:23pm Dec 16, 2009 6:23pm
Skong, I think I have the general idea, I'll wait and see what Compass says about my recent posts (if you don't mind compass?). Then we'll see....

I've only had 1 whiskey tonight....it was a pint.
Keep smiling
  • #4,534
  • Dec 16, 2009 6:32pm Dec 16, 2009 6:32pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Snowing here, I'm sure an inch of snow will shut down the whole British transit system tomorrow and I get to make snowmen with my kids.

I think I sussed the whole swing fib thing out last night, certainly doing it on fixed time periods. It's interesting to see the different variations on this system. Compass, I initially thought you fibbed each day but if I'm not mistaken you use the last completed daily fibbed range then only move the fib when the current fib completes. Your next fib fits on the day that completes.

Looks like Checkz treats...
It depends on the size of the weekly candle if it's a small one then yes. But most of time I pull my fibs on a monthly and weekly candle to define my trading range then switch to a daily chart and use the Ichimoku Cloud indicator to tell me when to get in out of the trade. :nerd:
  • #4,535
  • Dec 16, 2009 6:33pm Dec 16, 2009 6:33pm
C U tomorrow Skong. Goodnight all.
Keep smiling
  • #4,536
  • Dec 16, 2009 7:31pm Dec 16, 2009 7:31pm
  • #4,537
  • Dec 16, 2009 8:43pm Dec 16, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting Skunny
This is pretty good!

Now if I was more ego driven this might work LOL.

I am in the process of figuring out how to handle all the questions (without answering them) I really want to show you how to look at the market and find a way to trade it. If I move forward with many of the questions it will become more about how I trade. If this happens, it will consume more of my time than I have to offer right now. I will figure something out, but I haven't just yet.

OK, do this. Modify your fib so the only lines you have are the 0,100 and two 38ext's....
Lets look at what Skunny told Dagoods.
He had him modify his fibs to 4 lines.
He had him trade off of one timeframe.
And he had him adjust his fibs only when the 1.382 fib ext was reached.
I do all of this with one exception: I adjust my fibs when there is a reversal that penetrates the opposite end of the candle I am trading.
I had to uncomplicate it in order to trade with it.:nerd:
  • #4,538
  • Dec 16, 2009 10:56pm Dec 16, 2009 10:56pm
If u get a chance look at "How To Trade In Stocks", in that book Livermore talks more about his method and ideas. If you find The World's Greatest Stock Trader", that's ok too. It's Smitten's attempt to show the life of the trader but within the story all the ideas are present. I really recommend u read and re-read the rules and methods. It took me 5 months before I could actually SEE what Livermore was doing. The stuff is gold in my opinion.

Jess





Quoting Misterdaz
Hi xmess7. I've got Reminiscences of a Stockbroker but haven't got around to finishing it yet, too busy fibbling with myself. It is an intersting book though, I must finish it.

MD.
Our AWESOME IMAGINATION is the true holy grail!
  • #4,539
  • Dec 16, 2009 11:11pm Dec 16, 2009 11:11pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Snowing here, I'm sure an inch of snow will shut down the whole British transit system tomorrow and I get to make snowmen with my kids.

I think I sussed the whole swing fib thing out last night, certainly doing it on fixed time periods. It's interesting to see the different variations on this system. Compass, I initially thought you fibbed each day but if I'm not mistaken you use the last completed daily fibbed range then only move the fib when the current fib completes. Your next fib fits on the day that completes.

Looks like Checkz treats...
Your chart looks great.

You can also see that from todays EURUSD action, all targets were hit.

In the words of a great trader _ "Stand up, sit on your hands, don't touch the mouse and let that baby run." Lots of nice pips.

From all you have shown in your post, you appear to have a much better grasp of what Skunny was referring to, and how I predominantly trade.

Fibs on completed candles only.
Next setups are taken off completed candles in higher timeframes and then looked at on lower timeframes. Remember the lower the timeframe the less reliable the data.

You may remember Skunny alluded to the fact that sometimes your different timeframe (monthly weekly daily) may align at the same points. All the more powerfull a signal.

So how can you enter the market and never leave as Skunny stated.

Is it because every timeframe must complete its cycle first before price can move on to its next destination.
  • #4,540
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:43am Dec 17, 2009 4:43am
Black fib reached 138.2 ext. Waiting on brown fib.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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