james16 Chart Thread

Nice I had the same idea on 3rd entry, but only took profit target 1 and then BE on other 3/4ths. How did you manage this one, if you don't mind? Thinking after profit target 1, to leave my stops in place, and then trail behind each prior TP/PPZ, when the next is reached What do you think, if you don't mind?

[quote=benji533;3307181]

Well, considering a high TF PPZ plus fibs supported by oil finding some ground and gold free-falling, it was a good bet IMO.


Noticed that too. Was pretty much 50/50 on whether it was a tradeable play or not, but then I saw oil, and decided it looked profitable enough. Too bad all of these bar lows are in the way, could see this thing going lower, but don't feel like getting chopped out. Are you still holding any?

trailed behind 2D bars.
all stops moved to 88.96 now.

If this pin (ym) breaks to the upside tomorrow. UJ will hit 91.58 ... soon after (not a trading advice, if you're already late, you're late and move on)...

Thanks rac, so you played it as a 2 day pinbar? Good stuff.
No chasing on this thread, we are over that

I am pretty sure he meant that his stop is 2 Daily bars behind the current one

thanks mike for the pictorial details.im still downside bias

I'm looking to go long above 90.00: Two bar reversal on weekly, bullish MACD divergence, and trendline violation/breakout.

yeah here are a few scenarios I could see playing out. Love these areas


Mike

I thought this was going to be a good run, but it took me out... I know it's within a range, but this was at the bottom with a nice looking PB. comments?

CHARTS

james- how come/ how would one would stay in the UC trade even during the 500 and 1000 pip pullbacks? It seems as if you would be giving back so much if it were not to return. (Esp since it retraced nearly half the move) Regardless, amazing catch

Don't mind my newbieness if this is an obvious answer lol


Also.. question on IBs. Where do you enter? Break of 1st bar, break of 2nd bar, or a retracement of some sort?

Thanks

Hey Frank

From my style of trading. That bar is rather small, but even more importantly to me is how price never broke the high the next bar, and it seems barely nudged the high on that recent bar. That lack of momentum would keep me out of a smaller timeframe trade like the 4hr personally.

Best
Mike

Nice to see you posting Jim. Your charts always bring home the simplicity of this business to me, especially when a common sense approach is taken.

I am reminded of an interview with a guy who invested a small amount with Warren Buffet back when Buffet was a 20 something. The guy of course became filthy rich and went to thank Buffet. He said "You really made my life Warren". Buffet replied "I didn't do it. You did. You were the one who didn't sell"

Looking at that UCAD chart reminded me of that. A few trades a year and sitting tight and adding in....

A Jim chart always makes my day.

I'm not Jim but in answer to the first question, I would say that everything in trading is a trade-off. If you decide you're a big trend trader, you know you're always going to give back a chunk at the end. You won't catch the very bottom. So you get used to giving a lot back and hoping for a big runner, hiding your stops behind SR as you move down. I think Jim himself wouldn't have ridden the whole move. He takes partial profit early and then is out fully sooner.

If you trade in the way that would capture the whole move, then you're going to have to resign yourself to a lot of trades that move big and then stop you at break even. But that's the trade off.

If you trade with reduced stops, maybe half the bar, then you're going to have to resign yourself to the ones that break your stop and then turn around and become winners. That's the trade off there.

Each strategy has an up and downside. Where people drive themselves mad, in my opinion, is chopping and changing between approaches. It's okay to have a discretionary approach after a little experience, but at the beginning it'll have you tearing your hair out. You simple can't tell which ones will run and which ones won't.

I also think the genius of Jim's approach to trade management, if you decide to go that route, is that he gets to break even super quick, thus rarely allowing a loss, but then with his management he allows them a little room to run by hiding his stops behind PPZs. That way he tries to squeeze more out of the ones that do run.

Ultimately management style comes down to individual comfort level and is the most painful part of the learning curve IMO, because it comes down to experience. You're only going to know what you're comfortable with over time.

Hope that helps.

Aaron

Thanks for your great tips/comments Mike!

pun intended?

That last reply I wrote got me thinking about something that's been on my mind a bit lately but it was a little off the topic of what atclarkson wrote so I thought I'd just add a footnote here.

I read something once that the great Darkstar posted. It made no sense to me at the time. He said that the biggest mistake people make is thinking that trading is a science not an art. Jim then said something similar on a webinar of his. It haunted me and only now am I beginning to realise what it means.

What I wanted when I started was the reassurance of figures, statistics and probabilities. I wanted rules. I wanted "see a 4h pinbar at the 150EMA, pull the trigger". What I hated was when my trade failed and a senior said "well given the weekly trend I wouldn't have done that". Because I wanted a system with quantifiable rules that could be operated by a robot. I wanted it to be a science.

It's just not.

Trading to me now is more of an art. I look at the timeframes from the monthly down and try to get a sense of each pair. I want to take in all the information, nothing too fancy just the obvious stuff, but nonetheless get a full picture. And then look for oportunities based on that. But everything now is situational. I am not looking for the one visual setup where I will pull the trigger again and again.

I like pinbars off the 365 and the 150. I like big round numbers. I like price action at double tops with divergence. But ask me if I will pull the trigger on any of these setups and I will say "it depends". I used to get so frustrated in the early days. I'd say "wait a minute jim, you said look for good bars and then this chart shows a mediocre bar. how on earth did you know that'd work out?". And the truthful answer is, he took the whole picture into account. Sometimes the bar is less than perfect but the other factors align to make it a good trade. It seems to me to be about adding up the pieces and making an informed decision. Letting the price action tell me a story.

Now I am very new on this path and this is only just becoming clearer to me. So I don't speak as any kind of expert. But this is the single thing I am most grateful for in my trading education. And it only came with time and practice. Once the bigger picture starts to resonate more in your mind you'll find it's less about "see pinbar trade pinbar" and more about waiting for the price action appear where you want it to appear.

It really is neat how time and practice lift the veil gradually. Rac once said you get better at this over time if you keep doing this. Jim said you learn the game by playing the game. Where most people sadly fail is betting too big too soon and then blowing themselves out of the water before they have a chance to learn and grow. The learning curve is always longer than you think it's going to be. The seniors make it look easy and it is. But getting to that place where everything seems easy is hard. However long you think i's gig to take, allow for longer. But man, it is so worth allowing for that time. No matter where you are in the world, no matter how much money you have, learning this skill and getting good at it can change your life. As long as you don't put undue pressure on yourself too early by trying to live off your forex income before your skill level or account size justifies it. But a the simple ability to pull in a few percent a month of profit can transform your life in ways I guarantee you will be unable to comprehend right now.

Alas no. I just noticed that. Bad writing on my part....lol

great posts tia. I have to agree with thinking of it more as an artform rather than thinking its scientific, especially when you have a nice level where you think price will react but you dont get a pin forming the way you would like. im starting to learn it is more an art as time goes on.

Here I was thinking "it takes huevos"... but I like what Aaron said way better. Thanks Jim and great post Aaron (as usual).

-- Danny