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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #10,041
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:52am Dec 15, 2009 2:52am
Quoting Dupont
It seemed to me that when the support line was broken, it was supposed to become the resistance line. And the price going back to touch it was supposed to be a confirmation of that.

But i can't find a post of Jacko stating that
Dupont,

Support & resistance are area's where there is going to be a fight between buyers & sellers. Same trade off at 50% retracement levels and round numbers.

Perhaps a more in depth understanding of the fundamentals that are driving market sentiment might help.

Daily check list might look like this.

1. Where is the market today in relation to yesterday.
2. Where is the market today in relation to the 1st day of the week/month.
3. Is the market correlation with equities,gold,crude & treasuries holding.
4. What is the condition of the health of the 2 countries making up the pair.
5. Where are stops likely to be positioned. Identify the probable loser.
6. Any large options barriers in place that might interfere with tech picture.

There is a lot of spade work to do.

Take care.

BabeFX.

It is better to be out of the market wishing you were in, than in the market wishing you were out !
  • #10,042
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:52am Dec 15, 2009 2:52am
The market is now around 1.4550.
I look a little silly with my retrace . But i do not see another entry point for the down trend we are into.
If i try to draw a resistance line with the last few days highs, it's just too steep.
Let's hope that today's news will send the market up a little.
  • #10,043
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:00am Dec 15, 2009 3:00am
Quoting garrye
closed at 70 dont like p/a
glad i did read the market right .going long now 14550 cant get cheaper than that i hope
student
  • #10,044
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:16am Dec 15, 2009 4:16am
Quoting garrye
glad i did read the market right .going long now 14550 cant get cheaper than that i hope
I'm not a strict follower of Jacko's but I'm pretty sure he doesn't advise standing in front of trains. Yes it can get cheaper. No I'm not saying you shouldn't buy at 1.4550, I'm just saying I wouldn't.

When the market is making higher highs and higher lows buy dips. Right now the daily and weekly charts are making lower lows and lower highs sell tops,or stay on the side lines until the market has resumed making higher highs. Catching the very bottom or the very top is great for bragging rights but its just too damn expensive for me.

Good luck
  • #10,045
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:25am Dec 15, 2009 4:25am
Quoting knuckledrag
I'm not a strict follower of Jacko's but I'm pretty sure he doesn't advise standing in front of trains. Yes it can get cheaper. No I'm not saying you shouldn't buy at 1.4550, I'm just saying I wouldn't.

When the market is making higher highs and higher lows buy dips. Right now the daily and weekly charts are making lower lows and lower highs sell tops,or stay on the side lines until the market has resumed making higher highs. Catching the very bottom or the very top is great for bragging rights but its just too damn expensive for...
all I can do is to confirm knuckledrag. always be careful with trading against trend... at this moment EURUSD is short-term oversold, so maybe you can collect some pips.

and remember what Jacko said: "If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN."
  • #10,046
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:36am Dec 15, 2009 4:36am
Quoting Dupont
The market is now around 1.4550.
I look a little silly with my retrace . But i do not see another entry point for the down trend we are into.
If i try to draw a resistance line with the last few days highs, it's just too steep.
Let's hope that today's news will send the market up a little.
do we have important news today which could give us a significant move in price?

in my opinion everyone is waiting for Wednesday...
  • #10,047
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:41am Dec 15, 2009 5:41am
Quoting sibajnok
do we have important news today which could give us a significant move in price?

in my opinion everyone is waiting for Wednesday...
Exactly, Wednesday should be a mover.
So, let's wait
  • #10,048
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:01am Dec 15, 2009 11:01am
this is the point where i went long (@1.4508)

I can't see any reason for further drop by now.

maybe it can touch 4480-4500 area, but this could be the low for this week.

will see soon.
  • #10,049
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:06am Dec 15, 2009 11:06am
Quoting sibajnok
this is the point where i went long (@1.4508)

I can't see any reason for further drop by now.

maybe it can touch 4480-4500 area, but this could be the low for this week.

will see soon.
Usually I follow the trend".

But sometimes trend could do me a favour and follow me.

  • #10,050
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:20pm Dec 15, 2009 12:20pm
Quoting BabeFX
Dupont,

Support & resistance are area's where there is going to be a fight between buyers & sellers. Same trade off at 50% retracement levels and round numbers.

Perhaps a more in depth understanding of the fundamentals that are driving market sentiment might help.

Daily check list might look like this.

1. Where is the market today in relation to yesterday.
2. Where is the market today in relation to the 1st day of the week/month.
3. Is the market correlation with equities,gold,crude & treasuries holding.
4. What is the condition of the health...
BabeFX - I love this post, so much so I posted a link to it from my blog (http://wp.me/pqNm6-39).

More people need to think objectively and for themselves. I know taking the advice on this thread and many others like Clockwork and James16 is great as long as you are vetting it properly and making your OWN decisions for the reasons you came up with.

"You can give a man a fish and feed him for a day or you can teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime."

Learn to fish - and these teachers are VERY good teachers...
  • #10,051
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:21pm Dec 15, 2009 5:21pm
Quoting bgin2end
More people need to think objectively and for themselves. I know taking the advice on this thread and many others like Clockwork and James16 is great as long as you are vetting it properly and making your OWN decisions for the reasons you came up with.

"You can give a man a fish and feed him for a day or you can teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime."

Learn to fish - and these teachers are VERY good teachers...
Unfortunately, some (myself included) have vetted and had reasons as to why X would do Y (valid and sometimes agreed with in forums like this one) and it did Z. The real thing that all traders need to be able to do is not get upset when a trade goes bad (Very hard at first), the ability to learn where/why they made an error, and move on with the new knowledge obtained. And use the AH!

Otherwise the result could be like the one below.

Light a fire for a man and he is warm for the night or light the man on fire and he is warm the rest of his life.

Sorry to correct but here are EXCELLENT teachers here.
  • #10,052
  • Dec 16, 2009 8:06pm Dec 16, 2009 8:06pm
Moment of truth gentlemen. Original post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3298037&postcount=10020)
Will it or not?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,053
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:01am Dec 17, 2009 2:01am
Quoting knuckledrag
Moment of truth gentlemen. Original post (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3298037&postcount=10020)
Will it or not?
Attachment
good job buddy
  • #10,054
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:21am Dec 17, 2009 4:21am
Quoting sibajnok
good job buddy

Not yet. All I've done so far is point out the support level. If it turns there, I've called a bottom.

I don't know why they wont let me run the market, damn it. It would make this so much easier.
  • #10,055
  • Edited 4:39am Dec 17, 2009 4:38am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting knuckledrag
Not yet. All I've done so far is point out the support level. If it turns there, I've called a bottom.

I don't know why they wont let me run the market, damn it. It would make this so much easier.
for me a ~150pips upward momentum would be necessary to pull the trigger on longs, until then I'm staying out.
  • #10,056
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:45am Dec 17, 2009 4:45am
Quoting knuckledrag
Not yet. All I've done so far is point out the support level. If it turns there, I've called a bottom.

I don't know why they wont let me run the market, damn it. It would make this so much easier.

And its fallen below 4350 I suck again. Lets see how the day ends.
  • #10,057
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:50am Dec 17, 2009 4:50am
Quoting sibajnok
for me a ~150pips upward momentum would be necessary to pull the trigger on longs, until then I'm staying out.
Resistances turning to Support is the key factor. So far its still a south bound train. Lets see how the day ends.
  • #10,058
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:06am Dec 17, 2009 5:06am
Quoting knuckledrag
Resistances turning to Support is the key factor. So far its still a south bound train. Lets see how the day ends.
maybe I will consider to go long earlier, but no sooner than close of Europe today.

last time I was lucky to pick the bottom @4508 few days before. that trade never went red. I closed it yesterday, because I never trade around important news.

and what a luck that I keep my rules...
  • #10,059
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:27am Dec 17, 2009 5:27am
look at the weekly chart, very interesting.

1) however this is a very important level where we are, there is still more place to fall. it could reverse here, or somewhere between the blue lines.

2) look at rectangles. those are the weeks of December 2007 (red) and weeks of December 2008 (orange). in these cases last week of year brought us the reverse.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,060
  • Dec 17, 2009 7:20am Dec 17, 2009 7:20am
Can't lay any claims yet, but certainly key TLs have given way-- weekly thru 4hr frames-- not much support till .4200 & .4015( a .50 area to consider near a major rd.# handle )

4 hr. chart showing close up important TL piercings

Daily chart showing target area .50 -.618 fib off the 1.2886 low

Weekly chart: also to consider the solidily wkly/daily TL break and
alternate target 50 fib area

Waiting for a .4000 test to attempt a long or..
--another 4hr DTL test near .4500 to reshort

care with patience
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro 4hr 12-17-09.jpg Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro daily 12-17-09.jpg Size: 92 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro wkly 12-17-09.jpg Size: 60 KB
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