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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,481
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:31am Dec 15, 2009 2:31am
Quoting Misterdaz
Skong, like your chart. Here's my take but I did draw it with a Compass!

Missed this short this morning busy doing other crap but it did bounce at the blue T1. Something in the news about an Austrian bank might be nationalised not helping EUR, haven't read the story yet.

MD.

Attachment
With a compass !

That fib work out well. London Open strikes again.

SK
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  • #4,482
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:40am Dec 15, 2009 2:40am
Another chart. I have adjusted the fib to the swing high that you had in the first place. I think you had it at a better spot. Reason - Respect of fibs.

SK
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  • #4,483
  • Edited 3:39am Dec 15, 2009 3:12am | Edited 3:39am
Skong, chart looks good.

Market loves USD at the moment, good recent USD figs combined with year end profit taking is my view, look at all the USD crosses.

4X4ever. I asked for feedback from some of the old hands here and you certainly were so I have to say thank you for taking the time to reply. A lot of your thoughts I agree with wholeheartedly. Never trade without a sensible stop yep, I'd get the sack if didn't anyway so it's a no brainer for me. This is not to say Skunny ever said do not use stops by the way. I think I now see how Skunny dealt with that issue, he said we can be constantly in the market...clever man.

100% winners, emm, I don't know or care. I'd be happy with 50% winners if I used sensible money management. In any event using the wealth of information in this thread I believe 50% winners would be a major underachievment. With this knowledge we can learn to be 100% traders!

Where's TK?

Dunkan, I could just go a full English breakfast....any chance?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,484
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:41am Dec 15, 2009 4:41am
I'm also glad this thread is active again..I only found it two days ago and am only on Pg 143... Will be following with interest and hopefully contributing.....
  • #4,485
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:59am Dec 15, 2009 4:59am
Hello, welcome. Do read the thread also if you look thru the attachments you will find a pdf with most of Skunny's posts although it is best to see how they fit in with the context of the thread. Don't miss Sizzler's posts, great fun!

It does fade for a while and even gets confrontational at one point but keep with it. The latest stuff has been very enlightening for me!

MD.

P.S Compass, I like your stuff, very much!!
Keep smiling
  • #4,486
  • Dec 15, 2009 9:06am Dec 15, 2009 9:06am
Quoting Misterdaz
Skong, chart looks good.

Market loves USD at the moment, good recent USD figs combined with year end profit taking is my view, look at all the USD crosses.

4X4ever. I asked for feedback from some of the old hands here and you certainly were so I have to say thank you for taking the time to reply. A lot of your thoughts I agree with wholeheartedly. Never trade without a sensible stop yep, I'd get the sack if didn't anyway so it's a no brainer for me. This is not to say Skunny ever said do not use stops by the way. I think I now...
I agree that Skunny did not say not to use stops. I don't even know if he used them or not but that's a non issue. If Skunny's purpose was to get people thinking then he did his job. I think he opened pandora's box, however, and even he was remise to do so saying "against my better judgement". I think the most harm from the thread was the notion that you can trade 100% by having your fib in the right place. Then again to Skunny's defense he did say that human error would make that an impossibility of which I somewhat still disagree. A fib tool is to measure the retracement of a high and a low or the inverse. It's not a divinci code. Either support will hold or be broken and such with resistance as well, as someone so put it in an earlier post. If traders will learn the behavior of price action, combined with discipline and patience that only comes with maturity and sometimes from a butt kicking by the market, then you will start to see results and I mean consistant wins vs losses. Losses are part of the game. YOU CAN WIN 100% of the time... BUT ONLY for a PERIOD OF TIME and it's how you handle a trade after that period of time that makes you a good trader IMHO. Nice dialogue here!!!
  • #4,487
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:09am Dec 15, 2009 10:09am
Yes, in order win in this game one needs to learn how to lose first.

Here's one for you all. I bought an ejector seat and put it in my lounge. My wife hit the roof!!

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,488
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:22pm Dec 15, 2009 2:22pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Yes, in order win in this game one needs to learn how to lose first.

Here's one for you all. I bought an ejector seat and put it in my lounge. My wife hit the roof!!

MD.

Nice one Misterdaz, how many kids can you fit on it at once ?
  • #4,489
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:40pm Dec 15, 2009 2:40pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Yes, in order win in this game one needs to learn how to lose first.

Here's one for you all. I bought an ejector seat and put it in my lounge. My wife hit the roof!!

MD.
Good one. But I'll bet she already knew it was an ejector seat. She just went along to see your reaction. She must be thinking - Hubby is more predictive than fibs. Maybe I should trade him on the markets.

FxCompass, Hope you are well.

FxBlinkers, Welcome.


SK
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  • #4,490
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:50pm Dec 15, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
I agree that Skunny did not say not to use stops. I don't even know if he used them or not but that's a non issue. If Skunny's purpose was to get people thinking then he did his job. I think he opened pandora's box, however, and even he was remise to do so saying "against my better judgement". I think the most harm from the thread was the notion that you can trade 100% by having your fib in the right place. Then again to Skunny's defense he did say that human error would make that an impossibility of which I somewhat still disagree. A fib tool...

I think what a lot of people miss is that if your Fibs are plotted properly, then they automatically form major SR levels.

Hence the Stop loss is not required as a breach of the Fib level is a breach of SR and hence your looking at breakout and a trade in the opposite direction.

It has taken me many reads of this thread and a lot of practice plotting Fibs, but the results are well worth it.

Whilst the term Moley Quail (holy grail) has been thrown around, I personally believe that this method has a strong predictive value.

If you observe the attached chart you will see that the Fib lines at 50 and 23.6 were also where Support and resistance fell.
A breakout from this area saw the take profit hit last night.
The only other place it could have turned was near the end of the journey at -23.6. See how price reacted at this level. Why?

This can be seen time and time again, chart after chart.

If price happens to reverse during the journey, then there will always be a Fib line and SR at the point it turns... everything happens with clear reason.
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  • #4,491
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:53pm Dec 15, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting skong
Good one. But I'll bet she already knew it was an ejector seat. She just went along to see your reaction. She must be thinking - Hubby is more predictive than fibs. Maybe I should trade him on the markets.

FxCompass, Hope you are well.

FxBlinkers, Welcome.


SK

Nice chart Skong, and very well thanks.
  • #4,492
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:30pm Dec 15, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting FX Compass
Nice chart Skong, and very well thanks.
Through your practice, you have obviously found a pattern(s) that repeats and have devised a trading plan around it. MD is happy with the results from his testing of your plan. When I reached that stage, I may have to steal yours as well.

Cheers
SK
  • #4,493
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:18pm Dec 15, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting FX Compass
Nice one Misterdaz, how many kids can you fit on it at once ?
How many do you want to get rid of?
Keep smiling
  • #4,494
  • Edited 5:14pm Dec 15, 2009 4:51pm | Edited 5:14pm
Evening/morning, depending on where you are in the world. What's the temperature down there? -2 tonight here, snow on way.

Compass, I've read your post, looked at your chart. As Skong said, of all the ideas here, yours I can align with the best. Now don't want to keep asking questions but your last post has slightly thrown me.

1. I thought you fibbed every days worth of price, but I was wondering whether I should as not every previuos days fib completes, not that it matters too much as testing a fib of evey day still seems to be quite fruitful. Looking at your chart though answers my question I think.

2. I understood that a trade was taken at a break of either end of the range (100 or 0) then reversed if price moved back through the internal 23.6 or 76.4. Are you saying you take a break of any fib level? If you took every break you would get whipsawed around, or do you take the break looking for the next level in that direction and only reverse if it goes to the fib level previous?

God that reads more confused than I am, lets try an example. I've pulled my fib, it's perfect, given. Price breaks up through the inner 50, I go long. Scenario 1. Price hits the next fib level on the way up, lets say 76.4 for arguments sake, I take profit, lot's of high 5's and kids playing in ejector seats. Scenario 2, I've gone long at the 50 break but holy sh1t price reverses on me, back down through the 50 past the 38.2 (I notice you don't include that one or 61.8) and goes through the 23.6 At this point I stop and reverse and I'm looking for he 0 line to get my money back?
I know it's something along these lines... It's like doing a bloody Rubiks cube this.

Now if you really want to wind me up just don't answer as I really should go and work this out for myself, it's probably common sense, right?

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,495
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:05pm Dec 15, 2009 5:05pm
I pulled the same fibs on a EUR USD chart this morning. Looks like you fibbed last weeks price range like me. Nice fib eh? I've got the same red fib as you as well which was completed perfectly this morning. I saw that go but missed the deal as I wasn't fully logged into my systems. Shame.

I'm sure someone will come along and tell us our fibs are wrong now.

Trader_X, you still about, are you having any luck, any ah hah moments?

You know I can hear my wife upstairs snoring, I wish I really had an ejector seat!

I think, it's time for a Whiskey..

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #4,496
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:38pm Dec 15, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I pulled the same fibs on a EUR USD chart this morning. Looks like you fibbed last weeks price range like me. Nice fib eh? I've got the same red fib as you as well which was completed perfectly this morning. I saw that go but missed the deal as I wasn't fully logged into my systems. Shame.

I'm sure someone will come along and tell us our fibs are wrong now.

Trader_X, you still about, are you having any luck, any ah hah moments?

You know I can hear my wife upstairs snoring, I wish I really had an ejector seat!

I think, it's time for a Whiskey.....
I believe that the weekly fib has a 75% chance of hitting it's 138.2 ext, and should it decide to, who knows when it'll get there.
Go easy on the whiskey, but then again , it's the festive season, ain't it.

TK, Show yourself !!

SK
  • #4,497
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:40pm Dec 15, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting Misterdaz
2. I understood that a trade was taken at a break of either end of the range (100 or 0) then reversed if price moved back through the internal 23.6 or 76.4. Are you saying you take a break of any fib level? If you took every break you would get whipsawed around, or do you take the break looking for the next level in that direction and only reverse if it goes to the fib level previous?


MD.
Sorry for any confusion MD,

I only take reversals at two points the 23.6 and 78.2.
With the 50% fib the take profit line.

From my experience the 50 Fib tends to work a lot like the centreline of a bollinger (attracting price to it from the outer bands), in our case the 23.6 and 78.2.

A reversal trade at these points also acts as a stop loss on the original trade. Hence I get the pips from the reversal to make up for being stopped out more often than not.
Also no Stop loss entered and therefore no stop hunting.

Overall a very high RR scenario....
  • #4,498
  • Dec 15, 2009 5:54pm Dec 15, 2009 5:54pm
Quoting skong
I believe that the weekly fib has a 75% chance of hitting it's 138.2 ext, and should it decide to, who knows when it'll get there.
Go easy on the whiskey, but then again , it's the festive season, ain't it.

TK, Show yourself !!

SK
Skong, run a fib down last weeks candle high/low.

See where the bottom 138 fib line is ?

We hit it last night.
  • #4,499
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:06pm Dec 15, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting FX Compass
Skong, run a fib down last weeks candle high/low.

See where the bottom 138 fib line is ?

We hit it last night.
The green fib on my chart is last week's fib, whose low has been breached and awaiting the 138.2 target.
I must be suffering from morning thickness again. I can't see the fib you're referring to.

SK
  • #4,500
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:14pm Dec 15, 2009 6:14pm
Does this look right?
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