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  • #8,501
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:30pm Dec 14, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting strat
We discussed the comparison between EURUSD and USDCHF where the common pair is therefore EURCHF.

So what does EURCHF tell us?

We discussed the comparison between USDJPY and USDCHF where the common pair is therefore CHFJPY

So what does CHFJPY tell us?
I dont follow CHFJPY but EURCHF looks like is refueling itself for a serious move (in price and time) sometimes in the future. Until then is not even worth to stay on my screen.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,502
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:41pm Dec 14, 2009 3:41pm
Applying some weird studies to EURUSD and USDCHF reveals weird answers – what else?

Therefore continuing on a weird theme, if the current support on EURUSD doesn’t hold, we “could” be seeing 1.37 to 1.35 again and on USDCHF, 1.07 to 1.13.

These levels have nothing to do with SR but interestingly compare favourably with them. Coincidence, confluence or just a fluke?

Clairvoyance and future prediction are NOT what I do.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,503
  • Edited Dec 15, 2009 11:00am Dec 14, 2009 4:12pm | Edited Dec 15, 2009 11:00am
Quoting strat
Applying some weird studies to EURUSD and USDCHF reveals weird answers – what else?...
Hmm are we not being a little too eager here in picking tops and bottoms? The lovely line charts have a habit of showing the way on the boss chart. Seems there could be too much worker bias when we know we look for direction on the boss and enter in concert with the boss via the worker - not hoping the worker will steer the boss into our current directional bias LOL.

And we all know Alexandra hates bottom pickers (and tops too; would that include noses??)
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,504
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:19pm Dec 14, 2009 4:19pm
Strat, I used to think alot regarding correlation of E/U and U/C, but not so much anymore. In reality, I think your really just taking the same trade in reverse. I guess if one gives a better entry signal that the other it could give you a heads up, but overall thats about all there is to it. I used to trade 30 Y treasury bond futures and correlate it to the Euro and other markets. Now, since I trade more on a longer time horizon, it doesn't seem to make much difference, you're with the trend or your not.
  • #8,505
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:46pm Dec 14, 2009 4:46pm
Thanks everyone for helping me clear the confusion. I appreciate the willingness to comment. I'm getting there slowly but surely

Quoting Spinner
As you want some discussion, let's try
Spinner
Quoting CrudeCraig
We could beat ourselves up all day on how we "should" be in this trade but the bottom line is exactly what you said yourself. There was no stress free entry here.
Quoting patrick25
Hi Mstandifer,

To me the Boss is giving us the warning sign. If you combine the two candles together, that is the heck of a statement there. Here the thing I started to understand that until we can learn to read the boss, we can not trend trading. Here the secret Strat already gave us in some posts, "Some ATM trades turned into trend change". Keep it simple, look at the Boss for guidence, look at worker for opportunity. Well easy to say I am still learning and that is my narrow point of view.
Quoting jacanpipster
I seem to recall Strat saying market might be a bit thin in Dec due some of the big boys taking early holidays and leaving the apprentices to trade.
Quoting strat
Marcus, it IS confusing if you take it at face value so good for you for putting your hand up and saying “I’m confused”.

Might it be that I posted that chart and comment to provoke comments?
  • #8,506
  • Dec 14, 2009 7:41pm Dec 14, 2009 7:41pm
Quoting Grimweasel

And we all know Alexandra hates bottom pickers (and tops too; would that include noses??)
We tend to make money off of all three, actually. The first two jump early......The latter joins the fray too late, boosting profit.
  • #8,507
  • Dec 14, 2009 7:45pm Dec 14, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting Grimweasel
we know we look for direction on the boss and enter in concert with the boss via the worker - not hoping the worker will steer the boss into out current directional bias LOL.
I like that statement
  • #8,508
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:08pm Dec 14, 2009 8:08pm
Quoting Alexandra
...I bet if one does the math, the pip range per day is still higher for CHF. It was in the past.
For the last three months, Average Daily Range for EURUSD was 118 pips whereas it was 88 pips for USDCHF.
  • #8,509
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:16pm Dec 14, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting strat
Another day, another lesson. Thanks Alexandra (and Lou).
Hey Strat,

Thanks for the acknowledgment , but with the U/CHF pair, as I recall, it was PA that I saw at the time.. not any long range fundamental knowledge I possessed.
  • #8,510
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:26pm Dec 14, 2009 8:26pm
Quoting mstandifer
Thanks everyone for helping me clear the confusion. I appreciate the willingness to comment. I'm getting there slowly but surely
All the thanks should go to Strat. Strat, thank you for taking the time to answers to all our posts. I know I have offer you a hug before but you turned it down.
  • #8,511
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:54pm Dec 14, 2009 8:54pm
Quoting strat
This blows my reasoning that eurusd moves more!
In terms of traders logic, if both pairs move 100 pips, they move the same, because you gain or lose 100 pips (though pip values are different (10USD vs 9.6822USD)). But actually if EURUSD moves 100 pips from 1.46 to 1.47, that is 0.68% move whereas 100 pips move from 1.03 to 1.02 on USDCHF is 0.97% move.

Therefore, if they move the same amount of pips (let's say 100 pips) EURCHF will always depreciate which affect the Swiss economy:

Example: EURUSD: 1.4600 USDCHF: 1.0300 EURCHF: 1.46 x 1.03 = 1.5038

Now, let's assume both pairs moved 100 pips.

EURUSD: 1.4700 USDCHF: 1.0200 EURCHF: 1.47 x 1.02 = 1.4994

As EURCHF is normally more important for Swiss Central Bank, one shouldn't expect more move of USDCHF than EURUSD (Daily Range proves that, too).

And when you consider the economies of scale, which currency do you expect to lead? You can compare AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

Therefore, actually, you are right Strat, IMO.
  • #8,512
  • Edited 9:46pm Dec 14, 2009 9:16pm | Edited 9:46pm
Interesting. What I can relate from experience, however, is that over the years I have used wider stops in CHF based pairs, and wider still on the elusive JPY pairs. To focus a bit more, my point is that the various S/R levels tend to be tested to greater extremes in these markets. EUR and CAD are best suited, historically speaking, for those needing smaller stops. Rejection or acceptance of prices does stand out more to me on USDCHF. Some explain it as a liquidity issue, though I am not in total agreement with that. This is the same argument quoted by the majority who say that EURUSD tends to lead ever so slightly. The lessening of CHF as the crisis currency has changed the relationship a bit of late, in theory, I will admit.

As point of fact, even Friday's relative closes demonstrate this tendancy, albeit by a very minimal amount. We shall see which market proves to be the "leader." Not to tip my hand too much, but I am not yet buyng more EUR (against USD).

The issue has been studied extensively, however:
Date EUR/USD USD/CHF Ratio of Range

1/31/2005 511 486 95%

2/28/2005 190 257 135%

3/31/2005 264 336 127%

4/29/2005 90 15 17%

5/31/2005 557 519 93%

6/30/2005 195 330 69%

7/29/2005 16 79 494%

8/31/2005 224 367 164%

9/30/2005 320 410 128%

10/31/2005 33 43 130%

11/30/2005 204 67 131%

12/30/2005 61 18 30%

1/31/2006 311 359 115%

2/28/2006 236 335 142%

3/31/2006 197 77 39%

4/28/2006 522 652 125%

Figure 8

And you wonder why arbitrage is so hard!
  • #8,513
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:44pm Dec 14, 2009 10:44pm
Quoting Alexandra
The issue has been studied extensively ...
http://forexautomaton.com/research/3...t-correlations


And concluded that although zero hour lag anti-correlation (and although all of the public data elsewhere on the web is concentrated at the zero hour lag, correlations with non-zero time lags are of particular importance for the purpose of forex forecasting and trading system development) between EURUSD and USDCHF is almost perfect (-0.92), EURUSD is the leader and USDCHF is the follower during European and American sessions (where these currencies move most) when time lag is increased to 1 hour whereas Asian session is insignificant in terms of correlation.

Hope this helps.
  • #8,514
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:21pm Dec 14, 2009 11:21pm
I am interjecting here with a couple of questions; bear in mind I am only at page 160 and try not to watch the newer posts in case I encounter things that are beyond me for now.

If the answers to my questions are found between where I am and here please pour hot oil on me and I will slip down the ladder and hopefully the rope will hold and I won't have to go back to the beginning.

Trend Lines - I see some TLs on here that are drawn from just a few candles and some that go back weeks or months even. I have some long-term TLs on my charts that have recently broken and may become DSRI (I am not at the DSRI stage yet btw) but for now price has escaped them - ie EU, AU, NZDUSD, USDCHF. For all these longer term TL's I have used a line chart and drawn from closes.

Where I am confused is drawing trend lines with more recent data. I assumed that we would use the close and I have been drawing TLs from line charts but one day I got curious and peeked towards the end of the thread and Strat had several charts posted where the TLs were drawn through the highs forming tight wedges. I had the same TLs but mine were drawn from the closes and so the angles were very different.

Are there any rules regarding this or is it a situational thing?



I feel selfish but I hope everyone has a holiday rest and I get a little closer to catching up but slowly, slowly,one post at a time - read, scroll through charts, try to understand.

2 steps forward, 1 step backward, onwards to Babylon...
  • #8,515
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:24pm Dec 14, 2009 11:24pm
Quoting Blackeagle
http://forexautomaton.com/research/3...t-correlations


And concluded that although zero hour lag anti-correlation (and although all of the public data elsewhere on the web is concentrated at the zero hour lag, correlations with non-zero time lags are of particular importance for the purpose of forex forecasting and trading system development) between EURUSD and USDCHF is almost perfect (-0.92), EURUSD is the leader and USDCHF is the follower during European and American...
Indeed, as always - you bring up interesting and important points.

At the end of the day, whatever makes one the most money is beautiful to behold. LOL- I always sleep better holding EURUSD....that is worth something. Now, if I traded GBPJPY, I would probably have insomnia! Wait, why I am still awake???
Attached Image
  • #8,516
  • Dec 15, 2009 1:07am Dec 15, 2009 1:07am
Quoting strat
EURAUD is not one of my favourite pairs so maybe Blackeagle can shed more light on this
Will only check PA when price reaches 1.55 and/or 1.52 as trend is still down.
  • #8,517
  • Dec 15, 2009 9:25am Dec 15, 2009 9:25am
Quoting Privacy is gold
Strat, I used to think alot regarding correlation of E/U and U/C, but not so much anymore. In reality, I think your really just taking the same trade in reverse. I guess if one gives a better entry signal that the other it could give you a heads up, but overall thats about all there is to it. I used to trade 30 Y treasury bond futures and correlate it to the Euro and other markets. Now, since I trade more on a longer time horizon, it doesn't seem to make much difference, you're with the trend or your not.
Exactly, trading both EURUSD & USDCHF at the same time is a double whammy - choose one or the other. I'm more interested in studying each to find who is the leader to give me an "edge".
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,518
  • Dec 15, 2009 9:31am Dec 15, 2009 9:31am
Quoting Blackeagle
For the last three months, Average Daily Range for EURUSD was 118 pips whereas it was 88 pips for USDCHF.
There you have it! I knew there was a reason why I chose EURUSD over USDCHF.

Or was it because of The Swiss Maid? - Del Shannon 1965
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,519
  • Dec 15, 2009 9:49am Dec 15, 2009 9:49am
Quoting forexample
I am interjecting here with a couple of questions; bear in mind I am only at page 160 and try not to watch the newer posts in case I encounter things that are beyond me for now.

If the answers to my questions are found between where I am and here please pour hot oil on me and I will slip down the ladder and hopefully the rope will hold and I won't have to go back to the beginning.

Trend Lines - I see some TLs on here that are drawn from just a few candles and some that go back weeks or months even. I have some long-term TLs on my charts that have...
Trend Lines - I see some TLs on here that are drawn from just a few candles and some that go back weeks or months even. I have some long-term TLs on my charts that have recently broken and may become DSRI (I am not at the DSRI stage yet btw) but for now price has escaped them - ie EU, AU, NZDUSD, USDCHF. For all these longer term TL's I have used a line chart and drawn from closes.

Where I am confused is drawing trend lines with more recent data. I assumed that we would use the close and I have been drawing TLs from line charts but one day I got curious and peeked towards the end of the thread and Strat had several charts posted where the TLs were drawn through the highs forming tight wedges. I had the same TLs but mine were drawn from the closes and so the angles were very different.

Are there any rules regarding this or is it a situational thing?

I am afraid yours and others’ confusion on this subject is all my fault and for this I apologise.

I introduced DSRI lines more for students further along The Path without realizing that everyone would jump on it. This is the problem with one thread attempting to cater for students at different levels of learning.

For now, focus on drawing TLs, that is, lines from the candle extremes.

Accurately drawn TLs are just as valid and accurate as our DSRI lines so don’t think you are missing out. There are advantages and disadvantages to both TLs and DSRIs.

Like everything else, there are ways to draw TLs and DSRIs to become more meaningful, however, that is more advanced.

For now, all students should be focusing, practicing and concentrating on basic PASR.

TL and DSRI trading is not basic PASR and should be left until basic PASR has been mastered.

Probably not the answer you want but the best for moving forward in a logical manner.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,520
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:13am Dec 15, 2009 10:13am
Thanks Alexandra and Blackeagle for your very valuable comments and input on EURUSD and USDCHF.

Accepting the differences, we can work together to stay on the "right" side of the market.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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