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Desert Island Trading Journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 9, 2013 1:26am Dec 14, 2009 3:52am | Edited Feb 9, 2013 1:26am
Greetings to all traders,

I have started this thread because I have a genuine interest and desire in discussing my trading strategy with the world. Anyone wishing to have a simple exchange of ideas is welcome to join the discussion. My trading strategy is called the "Desert Island Trading Method." Based on the training program I started with, I believe the currency market is a living, breathing, organic being/entity. The currency pairs I regularly trade are the following: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/NZD, AUD/NZD. I have also recently added the following pairs: AUD/CAD, AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY/, GBP/CHF, EUR/CHF, NZD/JPY. __________________


My method includes back testing, trend lines, Stochastics, Multiple Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, Heiken Ashi, Fibonacci Retracements, Extensions, and Expansions, Volume and Elliot Waves. I am a swing/position trader, and I normally keep trades open for up to several weeks or longer. However, this includes closing out large profits and immediately reopening the trade.
I look to trade with the trend, Elliot waves, and I combine fundamental and technical analysis. I believe over 90 percent of traders fail because they do not understand the dynamics of trading through proper training. I would like to share my knowledge and wisdom with anyone who wishes to have a simple exchange of ideas, and I wish everyone the very best in their trading endeavors.
 My favorite currency pair to trade is the GBP/USD, but I regularly study and trade all eleven pairs listed here. With proper training methods, diligence, patience, awareness, and discipline, we can all achieve the goal of becoming successful traders. Best of wishes again to everyone, and let's make this a discussion. The attached PDF file is the most recent version of my trading method. I will regularly post updates and revisions here as well. Anyone interested in this information is encouraged to download the file to their computer for future reference. Pleasant trading!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Desert Island Trading Method (2).pdf   991 KB | 1,648 downloads | Uploaded Feb 9, 2013 1:26am
  • #2
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:15am Dec 14, 2009 4:15am
I'll follow with interest Tao. My favorite pair is GBP/USD too. I'm long at 1.619 with TP at 1.633. This TP may well be revised north. It's struck resistance and is pulling back on its support. Last 1.624.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #3
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:20am Dec 14, 2009 4:20am
Yes, you may very well be right. I have been watching this pair intensely for the past 7 months. I'm short right now, and my TP is based on several different signals, so I normally do not use a TP price or a stop loss. I must be off to bed, it is very late here in the states. I will be on later with more.
  • #4
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:16am Dec 14, 2009 11:16am
Quoting Why Oh Why
I'll follow with interest Tao. My favorite pair is GBP/USD too. I'm long at 1.619 with TP at 1.633. This TP may well be revised north. It's struck resistance and is pulling back on its support. Last 1.624.
Good morning Tao. It's my night now so I'm finished. But we're on the way. Are you still short? Last 1.629 and holding.

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...1214163010.GIF

Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #5
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:40am Dec 14, 2009 11:40am
LOL - with a title like yours, how can this Islander not be interested....and you've already got my old buddy WOW on board too.....

Good luck with this thread.....and I hope that it helps me take a longer term view.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6
  • Edited 12:23pm Dec 14, 2009 12:01pm | Edited 12:23pm
Why Oh Why,

Yes I am short. For anyone who is not at least a swing trader I would advise against short at the current hour. The price is retracing as we can all see, but I am still anticipating a downward movement. You mentioned you are a swing/position trader, so you may be familiar with some of the reasons I keep trades open this long when they retrace. Over the next couple of weeks I will be posting my entire trading strategy in this thread. I humbly ask you and everyone interested to be patient, as my system is quite detailed and exhaustive. I am very busy all the time because I am in college studying IT, among other things. For now here are a few key points of interest to my trading strategy.

-The shorter the time frame the less meaningful & significant are the indicators, trends and everything else you see.

-Shorter time frames have the least amount of momentum, and these time frames are primarily a chaotic noise inside of a larger picture.

- I do a thorough analysis of the market at least once or twice a week and document all my results and conclusions.

-I do not use a rigidly defined trading strategy.

-I trade on the longer time frames (monthly, weekly, daily and four hour charts). I normally execute (entries and exits) my trades on the daily and four hour charts.

-Ideally the market will be trending on the daily time frame for optimal trading.

As I mentioned above, I will be regularly posting my trading strategy over the next few weeks. I look forward to corresponding with you Why Oh Why, as I have reviewed your journals and threads as well and I am quite interested.
  • #7
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:18pm Dec 14, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting Islander
LOL - with a title like yours, how can this Islander not be interested....and you've already got my old buddy WOW on board too.....

Good luck with this thread.....and I hope that it helps me take a longer term view.....
Thanks Islander. I hope we can share some good ideas here, and I guarantee you will benefit from a longer term outlook on the currency market.
  • #8
  • Edited Dec 15, 2009 12:50am Dec 14, 2009 11:53pm | Edited Dec 15, 2009 12:50am
Typical sideways market due to the recent news around the world. The bulls are not convincing me for many pairs, and there is heavy market hesitation. The trading week is early, and I look forward to seeing how the market reacts to some of the major news reports later this week. In the long term as well as with current trends, fundamentals and technicals still point bearish to me for the following pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY . Likewise, I am looking long for the following pairs:USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/NZD. The EUR/NZD and the AUD/NZD are the most volatile of all the pairs I trade, and although I am looking long for the EUR/NZD, I do not have an open position for this pair at the moment. I choose to stand aside at the moment for the AUD/NZD, but I am always watching this pair closely as I do the others. Tomorrow I will start posting my trading strategy for anyone interested. Until then, enjoy the market as it moves onward, and pleasant trading!
  • #9
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:00pm Dec 15, 2009 12:00pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
As we're below 1.4524 I'm now looking at 1.447 & 1.441. Although the RSI is well directed and we were rebounding on the channel lower boundary I still favour adding further shorts. Holding from 1.4676. Last 1.4511.
The above was taken form EURUSD thread five minutes ago and the link goes to the original chart from 10 hours ago.

Hey Islander, season's greetings mate. You know I don't usually do December but this looks like it could finish the year with a bang. I've got multi lots riding now. We'll see.

Looking forward to seeing your position trading strategy later Tao. Ladies and gentlemen, good luck to you all, as always.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #10
  • Dec 15, 2009 1:44pm Dec 15, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
The above was taken form EURUSD thread five minutes ago and the link goes to the original chart from 10 hours ago.

Hey Islander, season's greetings mate. You know I don't usually do December but this looks like it could finish the year with a bang. I've got multi lots riding now. We'll see.

Looking forward to seeing your position trading strategy later Tao. Ladies and gentlemen, good luck to you all, as always.
Thanx for the link Why oh Why....I have been following your posts with interest. I am writing my strategy out as we speak........I will post what I have every night from my local time, and I will update thereafter everyday. Pleasant trading.
  • #11
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:21pm Dec 15, 2009 11:21pm
I have added the following currency pairs to the 11 I regularly trade, and I will be posting the first part of my trading method in a few hours: AUD/CAD, AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY/, GBP/CHF, NZD/JPY.
  • #12
  • Dec 16, 2009 1:00am Dec 16, 2009 1:00am
Greetings traders,

This attachment is the first part of my trading method. I will regularly post updated versions and revisions here as well. Anyone interested in this information is encouraged to download the document and save it to their computer for future reference. Pleasant trading!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Desert Island Trading Method.pdf   262 KB | 1,162 downloads
  • #13
  • Dec 16, 2009 11:04pm Dec 16, 2009 11:04pm
These are my current active trades from about half an hour ago. These are all short except for three pairs, and they correspond with my live account. However, my live account broker does not use metatrader, and I am still having problems cropping certain portions out of the picture, and saving the file in a clear readable format. The only other difference is that my demo account trades are all one dollar per pip, while my live account(I opened with a small amount of money) is ten cents per pip. This is an example of how swing and position trading pays off for those who understand how the market works. I will work on getting the screen shot tomorrow for my live account. Pleasant trading.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Mt4 .doc   95 KB | 635 downloads
  • #14
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:47am Dec 17, 2009 1:47am
I'm sure those of you who trade swing and position knew the down trend was coming for many pairs. If you look at the monthly chart the Elliot Wave and Fibonacci numbers were excellent for this in regards to my short positions. I have actually been waiting for the up-trend to end since the summer for several pairs. It appears that it may be finally over, but I have been short on 6 different pairs since the beginning of this month. If you look at my sentiments and my trade journal you will see I have been short all along as well. The few attachments I posted for my Metatrader account show this as well. For anyone who may be confused keep this in mind..........Wave 3 is most likely going down now for a while on many pairs.....this is the best time to be trading. This attachment shows all my trades from earlier this hour. All positive, short on all except 3, all in the process of staying positive for a while in my opinion, based on technicals and fundamentals.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Metatrader 3.doc   100 KB | 621 downloads
  • #15
  • Edited Dec 18, 2009 1:56am Dec 17, 2009 2:37am | Edited Dec 18, 2009 1:56am
Wave 3 targets for Elliot wave pattern for EUR/USD:

Primary Projection: Alternate price projection of Wave 1 projected from wave 2. Target price ranges are 100%, 161.8%, or less likely 61.8% and 261.8%

Secondary Projections: External Retracements of wave 2. Target price ranges are 127%, 161.8% and 261.8%. Somtimes the secondary projections are significant and sometimes they are not. The most likely target here is 161.8%

Minimum target for wave 3:100%
Typical target for wave 3: 161.8%

This attachment shows the alternate price projection. I am anticipating the wave 3 down trend will end between 1.14329 and .91213.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Elliot Wave 3.doc   68 KB | 637 downloads
  • #16
  • Edited Dec 18, 2009 2:00am Dec 17, 2009 2:41am | Edited Dec 18, 2009 2:00am
Wave 3 targets for Elliot wave pattern:

Primary Projection: Alternate price projection of Wave 1 projected from wave 2. Target price ranges are 100%, 161.8%, or less likely 61.8% and 261.8%

Secondary Projections: External Retracements of wave 2. Target price ranges are 127%, 161.8% and 261.8%. Somtimes the secondary projections are significant and sometimes they are not. The most likely target here is 161.8%

Minimum target for wave 3:100%
Typical target for wave 3: 161.8%

This attachment shows the secondary projection. I am anticipating the wave 3 down trend will end between 1.14329 and .91213.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Elliot wave 333.doc   67 KB | 662 downloads
  • #17
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:18pm Dec 17, 2009 5:18pm
This attachment is an updated version of my trading method, with a short addition added on risk management examples, and a section on Forex Brokers. I will have another updated version later tonight. You can also view this attachment at the beginning of my thread. Pleasant trading.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Desert Island Trading Method.pdf   283 KB | 876 downloads
  • #18
  • Dec 18, 2009 12:40am Dec 18, 2009 12:40am
This attachment is an updated version of my trading method, with sections added on currency pairs, spread, profit examples, opening accounts, brokers, candlesticks, time frames and indicators. I will have another updated version this weekend. You can also view this attachment at the beginning of my thread. Pleasant trading.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Desert Island Trading Method (2).pdf   613 KB | 737 downloads
  • #19
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:52am Dec 18, 2009 1:52am
Here is another version of my chart showing the wave 3 downtrend for the EUR/USD. This is for anyone who is having problems reading my wave counts with Fibonacci retracements and expansions, instead of numbers.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Elliot Wave 3.doc   68 KB | 608 downloads
  • #20
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:49am Dec 18, 2009 2:49am
Tao thanks for posting your strategy. I have just started reading your files and will probably post a question or two later.
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