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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #761
  • Dec 1, 2009 11:59am Dec 1, 2009 11:59am
Upside target: UML of modified schiff
Downside target: LML of modified schiff
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #762
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:25pm Dec 1, 2009 2:25pm
an excellent example of ML probabilities at work, taken from G-U @ 6am GMT Tues.

 It is 90% probable that price will “reach” D
if A then B then C AND price action presently supports that direction

the bounce after 'C' supports that direction, entry at yellow
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  • #763
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:09pm Dec 1, 2009 4:09pm
Hi Peter, is this example taken from a daily setup ? Very helpful, although as a beginner I am of course especially keen on learning how to find the right PP as starting point to draw...... this might be your second nature already, but I am reading the book by M. Dologa " Integrated Pitchfork.... " at the moment, and the very first thing he says is that the efficiency of ML`s are extremely dependent on knowing which pivots are primary, secondary, minor etc.

Thank you !
Be like water.
  • #764
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:36pm Dec 1, 2009 4:36pm
Hi

this example is a 120min chart

i never know which pivots are the best ones unless it is blatantly obvious, so i just draw a number of ML sets for any given pair [refer http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=627] and then wait for price action to develop.

This way it is the ML set itself that ends up telling me it is in charge, i dont have to figure it out before it happens.

That said, i dont believe you need to know which pivots are the best, rather just wait for price activity at any one of the ML sets you have drawn to tell you.

thanks

Quoting msmarple
Hi Peter, is this example taken from a daily setup ? Very helpful, although as a beginner I am of course especially keen on learning how to find the right PP as starting point to draw...... this might be your second nature already, but I am reading the book by M. Dologa " Integrated Pitchfork.... " at the moment, and the very first thing he says is that the efficiency of ML`s are extremely dependent on knowing which pivots are primary, secondary, minor etc.

Thank you !
  • #765
  • Edited 7:31pm Dec 5, 2009 7:07pm | Edited 7:31pm
hook (close) above the median line (yellow), plus hagopian's rule (blue), lend support to a long at this ML

* * * * *


i dont think trading is easy, i think it is work........but does it need to be complicated?

median lines keep telling me it doesnt have to be complicated, .........am i willing to listen???
-- sorry, corny, just talking to myself!
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  • #766
  • Dec 5, 2009 11:28pm Dec 5, 2009 11:28pm
Hi Peter,

I am just curious as to what rules you use for entry. What do you look for?

tormo
  • #767
  • Dec 6, 2009 1:52am Dec 6, 2009 1:52am
difficult to answer without writing pages.

some of my trades are simple patterns such as test-retest, Lazy etc

and some trades are confluence trades, so i cant describe them until they happen

the EJ daily trade i just posted is what i call a break and test trade, price breaks an ML then comes back to retest it, where entry is taken


Quoting tormo
Hi Peter,

I am just curious as to what rules you use for entry. What do you look for?

tormo
  • #768
  • Dec 6, 2009 5:03am Dec 6, 2009 5:03am
Thanks for posting. I am following your advice to not use ML´s as a predictive tool well in advance, but letting PA tell me which ML is weak or strong. In your EJ example :the case of including a sliding parallel line AND having the confidence to place a trade still leaves me with the feeling of trading from a kind of " gap " or no-mans land.....( trying to find words for that ). Especially on a daily.

Great, thank you !
Be like water.
  • #769
  • Dec 10, 2009 12:25pm Dec 10, 2009 12:25pm
Hi p,
pls wot du u use as ur entry in trading PF?,,,
  • #770
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:51am Dec 12, 2009 10:51am
Textbook range break with median target
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  • #771
  • Dec 12, 2009 5:19pm Dec 12, 2009 5:19pm
Yes, I noticed that as well....
Be like water.
  • #772
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:49am Dec 13, 2009 10:49am
Here's a different look:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HOURLY EU.GIF Size: 33 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #773
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:02am Dec 14, 2009 10:02am
A bit shorter term on the same formation that kapital is showing...
Watching shorter time frame for entries and exits...currently scalping the bounces. Waiting for a solid break above the 50% for a longer term trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Listen to the whispers.... You may learn something
  • #774
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:16am Dec 14, 2009 10:16am
I think this is the problem with Pitchfork... too many interpretations!
  • #775
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:52am Dec 14, 2009 10:52am
Hi Everyone,

Still learning pitchforks/median lines, so what does everyone think of this setup on 4hr audjpy?

Blue lines are longer term modified schiff [blue] from the top on 23rd Oct.

Price has reached an inner fib level which has a confluence with my shorter term pitchfork [grey] and the 61% fib level from the previous swing.

My thinking is to look for a slowdown in momentum on the 15min chart and go short with a target at the longer term blue median line [blue].

I'd appreciate your comments!

Thanks,

GT3RS

ps - @ Kapital - I think your pitchfork isn't quite right mate - you have drawn it from a high, a high and then a low - it should be high, low high. Apologies in advance if it's ME that's wrong!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #776
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:26pm Dec 14, 2009 1:26pm
Your Andrews Lines look fine to me...on the lower time frames the AJ is trying to consolodate as I post this and PA is testing your recent Andrews (gray). If it gathers any momentum to the upper side it will be interesting to see if it takes out the prior high pivot but that's 65 or so pips away.
If it can't reach the UML (blue) then the ML (blue) would most likely be the first target...the LML (blue) may be a bit far, at least for the moment.
Quoting Gt3rs
Hi Everyone,
Still learning pitchforks/median lines, so what does everyone think of this setup on 4hr audjpy?
Blue lines are longer term modified schiff [blue] from the top on 23rd Oct.
Price has reached an inner fib level which has a confluence with my shorter term pitchfork [grey] and the 61% fib level from the previous swing.
My thinking is to look for a slowdown in momentum on the 15min chart and go short with a target at the longer term blue median line [blue].
I'd appreciate your comments!
Thanks,
GT3RS
Good catch...perhaps I need to start looking at these posts a bit closer instead of just a glance. Scrolled back on my chart and see I was using an alternate point formation with the P0 on the 11-27 low (time) that somehow got tweaked just a bit. Just glancing at the ML and LML I thought it was the same formation but it's not.
Yes, you're right HLH or LHL.
Quoting Gt3rs
ps - @ Kapital - I think your pitchfork isn't quite right mate - you have drawn it from a high, a high and then a low - it should be high, low high. Apologies in advance if it's ME that's wrong!
Listen to the whispers.... You may learn something
  • #777
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:08pm Dec 14, 2009 2:08pm
Many thanks Scrutch.

Appreciate your input.

I watched as price slowed down and have indeed shorted AUDJPY, although the new 4hr candle [just opened] is above my grey upper median line.........

Still, I have a tight stop, so we'll see what happens.

I am acutely aware that price hasn't reached the upper median line of the blue pitchfork, so will watch the action unfold.

Agree with you about the blue median line being a more likely target, but I heard Tim Morge suggest that you target the outer one, just in case you get a zoom through of the median line itself.

Obviously, I'll observe price action when [if] it reaches the blue median line.

Thanks once again.
  • #778
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:44pm Dec 14, 2009 3:44pm
Yes Gt3rs, I'm aware that my drawing isn't the standard pitchfork. However the basic principles still apply. Just another knife to have in the drawer.
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #779
  • Edited 6:08pm Dec 14, 2009 5:39pm | Edited 6:08pm
What are some great books/ websites to learn forks?

has anyone traded forks on stocks?..does it work just as well?
  • #780
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:38pm Dec 14, 2009 6:38pm
I don't normaly trade this pair...but, here's a quick H1 chart I did this afternoon when you asked for an opinion. The long term redish downward formation is what you described as you blue one. The short term redish should be the same as you gray one. I added a medium term upward formation as an addition...the blue ML shows fair respect and I haven't plotted any of the 1/8 lines.
Just a heads up and it sounds like you are going to play this correctly by watching price action. As for me I would not have entered this market yet...a lot of what-ifs laying around.
Quoting Gt3rs
Many thanks Scrutch.
Appreciate your input.
I watched as price slowed down and have indeed shorted AUDJPY, although the new 4hr candle [just opened] is above my grey upper median line.........
Still, I have a tight stop, so we'll see what happens.
I am acutely aware that price hasn't reached the upper median line of the blue pitchfork, so will watch the action unfold.
Agree with you about the blue median line being a more likely target, but I heard Tim Morge suggest that you target the outer one, just in case you get a zoom through of the median...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ-12-14-09_H1.JPG Size: 290 KB
Listen to the whispers.... You may learn something
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