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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,621
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:04am Dec 14, 2009 1:04am
Quoting Morelands
I'm also leaning towards a move back up. I think the 38% retracement will hold in as it did on Fri. I think price will pull back to Saka's trendline/previous support and now resistance. I'll look for candle formations to support the price action and break though the 38% level. However, I believe a lot of institutions and people are going to get squeezed out of their carry trade, so the market may move down more quickly than expected
I agree, if price has been resistanted under that line, we should wait for the short signal.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,622
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:57am Dec 14, 2009 2:57am
Quoting saka
I have opened a sell stop trade yesterday to wait market has cracked the trend line I drawed before. The entry point is 1.4660 with 3% risk of my capital. And the sl is 1.4705, tp is 1.4605, after the news released tonight which is quite good for dollar, I closed my position mannually at 1.4611.
http://photo.hexun.com/originalPic.a...C8D8403A657AC0
HI, I found a problem.our charts are different, it leads to a different signal. so our enter price are different.which chart is right?
  • #21,623
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:22am Dec 14, 2009 5:22am
Quoting fxzl
http://photo.hexun.com/originalPic.a...C8D8403A657AC0
HI, I found a problem.our charts are different, it leads to a different signal. so our enter price are different.which chart is right?
you had better use MIG's metatrader platform
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,624
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:35am Dec 14, 2009 5:35am
I have made a early entry of eu trade when it had retraced to the daily trend line. I only use 1.5% risk of my capital to open position since the early entry. This is the anatomy analysis.

4h
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At 4h chart, I saw eu had retaced back to the daily trend line I drew before. It is worth to do the early entry at shotter TF.

1h
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At 1h chart, it was clear that two engulfs had formed consequently, meanwhile ADX's -DI was crossing +DI, I decided to find proper entry point at 5min chart

5min
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I entered at 09:16 GMT+1 without any 5min enter signal. Because of the bigger TF's analysis, I just entered when price had crased 50sma and set the sl just a little above the daily trend line. TP is 1.4618 where the gap formed today.

Now 12:00 GMT+1 is coming with a TC signal which was resistanted by daily trend line and 21ema of 4h chart and a engulf pattern. I closed all the position at 1.4633. I decided to use this profit to made a TC trade of eu, at least I will make a BE trade today if this TC is a false signal.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,625
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:55am Dec 14, 2009 5:55am
This is today's eu trade 2, it hasn't finished yet, this is the scenario prepare. I use the profit obtained today to open the second trade, at least I will have a BE trade if this TC signal is a false one

4h
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This is a simple reason for the TC signal which price has been resistanted by the daily trend line and 21ema of 4h chart. SL is above the daily trend line.

TP
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As the tp, I haven't decided yet, if there is a higher low MACD signal formed at 16:00 GMT+1 today, I will close all the position immediately despite whether it is positive or negative. The worst is that there is a big bullish engulf candle formed and price touches my sl line.

In an optimistic view, let's have a look at daily chart. It is clear that price has retraced to the trend line and is resistanted. I think rectangle A and B are the place that price might go to. A is 23.6% retracement of eu's bullish trend of this year, and the goldenrod line 1.4449 is the upper box line of the consolidation period of eu from June to September. They are very near. B is 200sma of daily chart. I will wait for more signals at 4h to decide whether hold my position for a longer time.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,626
  • Dec 14, 2009 8:13am Dec 14, 2009 8:13am
Quoting Palmer
Thanks Morelands....been a lot of stuff going on the past several months. I've been helping Phillip with his FX Combo forum and have recently started to trade FX options...good and bad points to that and still mulling through it. Hoping to be posting here in the evenings regularly again.
hi , goood to see u ,welcome back
  • #21,627
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:15am Dec 14, 2009 9:15am
I closed the postion entered at 12:00 GMT+1 for eu's TC trade. All the reasons has been analysed at those 3 TFs' chart below. What more important is that not all the non-dollar currency become bearish with dollar like euro today, so as the stock and futures market. At last I save 70% of my profit obtained today. Let's wait for good signals to enter
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,628
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:15am Dec 14, 2009 10:15am
Quoting saka
I closed the postion entered at 12:00 GMT+1 for eu's TC trade. All the reasons has been analysed at those 3 TFs' chart below. What more important is that not all the non-dollar currency become bearish with dollar like euro today, so as the stock and futures market. At last I save 70% of my profit obtained today. Let's wait for good signals to enter
great analysis saka, really nice posts, I went also short in the eu today at 12:00 GMT+2 but closed it 4 hours later. I interpreted it as a false signal for two reasons:
1.Price might form HL and continue upwards.
2. Actual price level could act as support like the daily bar of 03.11.2009
  • #21,629
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:35am Dec 14, 2009 10:35am
Quoting Pipmaniac
great analysis saka, really nice posts, I went also short in the eu today at 12:00 GMT+2 but closed it 4 hours later. I interpreted it as a false signal for two reasons:
1.Price might form HL and continue upwards.
2. Actual price level could act as support like the daily bar of 03.11.2009
Agreed, we can see a clear picture that the falling trend of eu has been more and more exausted. At least there should be some retracement at daily chart
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,630
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:04pm Dec 14, 2009 4:04pm
I did not take the trade/TC today on the EUR/USD b/c it did not break the 38% retracement. It looked like the beginning of a bearing wedge with higher lows on the 1 hr. If price would have broken the 38% retracement, I would have been in the trade. I also agree with someone else (can't remember who) that price needs some help with some longer term moving average to break though the 38% retracement b/c there are a lot of buyers there.
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  • #21,631
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:54pm Dec 14, 2009 4:54pm
Luv'n them charts....

Well, the 8ema gap was filled with price moving up. I did grab a few to the upside per Phillip's 5min entry method but only a few. Since the longer term trend is down I'm very conservative going against the grain here. Those other two indicators here on the chart are only stochastics and the rsi. I use these only to help look for divergence with price which is showing up with the lower low right before the vertical yellow line. That thick blue aqua line is the daily trned line that was broken to the downside. If this low holds, the 23.6 fib # is right around that continued daily uptrend line = resistance. If this low is broken, the the next daily target is around the 4500 level. For some reason I feel that we might at least visit the 21 soon with the bullish divergence here. Not a whole lot of movemnet in the US indexes today and no real news so this pair is rangebound. If we do get to the 21 I'll definetly look for a short and hen see if a double bottom turns up.....
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  • #21,632
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:32pm Dec 14, 2009 5:32pm
As far as 'my other favorite pair' the $Yen...not a whole lot of movement here either. Thinking that the third sister might form at the daily downtrendline at some point in the next few days. The moving averages are flattening out here so this pair might stay on the sidelines for me for a while...
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  • #21,633
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:08am Dec 15, 2009 3:08am
I just have a good deal according to tc signal on eurusd .so far, though 4hmacd system ,i have got about 100 pips in two weeks.this is indeed a good system.
  • #21,634
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:50am Dec 15, 2009 4:50am
I have also prepare for a breakout if it happens. I hope the chart so the entry and TP
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THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #21,635
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:52am Dec 15, 2009 6:52am
4500 may get hit today in the EU, $Y looks interesting...quick moves here
  • #21,636
  • Dec 15, 2009 8:24am Dec 15, 2009 8:24am
I did stay beside computer, but I didn't enter eu's TC trade 8:00, These are the reasons.

When 8:00 GMT+1 began, it was 1.4636 of eu, and the TC signal appeared. Even though there were three stars to retraced to red horizontal line 1.4660 which is also the previos low and also an engulf behind, it was still only 24 pips to the entry point. It is very dangerous that price would touch the sl line, if my risk is 3%, it is not worth to gamble.

Meanwhile, I considered 1.4600 would be some support, price had a lot of probability to stall before it. The more the sl set, the more risk suffers. And if I set stop lose at rectangle A, it is 60pips sl, due to the daily trend line is upward, and other non-dollar currencies don't follow eu's bearish trend. I was worried about eu's price would stall at this level.

What's more, I did consider the news French CPI released at 8:45 GMT+1. The interest rate of each country is focused by market, traders want to know the pressure of inflation to judge the police of central banks. I thought that it might as expected of French CPI, and if it is better than expected, I still didn't know how market reacted to this. So I missed this trade.

Now you know that French CPI is 0.1%, worse than expected ratio 0.3% and USA's PPI is 1.8%, much better than 0.8%. Those news made eu fallen down deeply to near 1.4500 level, because it means that USA has more pressure than Euro and enhance the expectation of rising rate of Fed.

May be I do consider too much. LOL

BTW, if you are a newbie of Phillip's 4h strategy, despite of news and avoid big news such as NFP and interest rate. Pay more attention to market rhythm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 24 KB
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,637
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:13am Dec 15, 2009 10:13am
I entered this trade today on a TC. The price retraced a bit and that gave me a good R:R of 1:1 down to the 1.4600 level. I could not watch the trade live so I went for the conservative way of setting TP at 1.4605. I was aslo aware of the 1.4600 support but the price went through it. Got +34pips.
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  • #21,638
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:16am Dec 15, 2009 10:16am
I was able to take some off the 5min chart per some divergence there, sleeping during the 4 hour move but holding a 1.4550 put right now....
  • #21,639
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:41am Dec 15, 2009 10:41am
Quoting Phillip Nel
I entered this trade today on a TC. The price retraced a bit and that gave me a good R:R of 1:1 down to the 1.4600 level. I could not watch the trade live so I went for the conservative way of setting TP at 1.4605. I was aslo aware of the 1.4600 support but the price went through it. Got +34pips.
what? that's really frustational. I didn't dare to enter with such little sl...
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,640
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:29am Dec 15, 2009 11:29am
Quoting saka
what? that's really frustational. I didn't dare to enter with such little sl...

The small candles making a bit of a round top was my confirmation. I knew that it was going to move.
Attached Image
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