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  • #8,441
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:16pm Dec 13, 2009 10:16pm
My questions are:

Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?

Is this downtrend reversing? Why?

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?

Everyone, including Strat and the team, please feel free to reply.

Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trend.png Size: 11 KB
  • #8,442
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:30pm Dec 13, 2009 10:30pm
Quoting Blackeagle
My questions are:

Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?

Is this downtrend reversing? Why?

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?

Everyone, including Strat and the team, please feel free to reply.

Thanks.
No LL and LH. New high with a LH in place and has not been breached. Momentum slowing down, possibility of trend reversal in place. Enter trade at the top of recent swing high when PA gives a sigmal.
  • #8,443
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:46pm Dec 13, 2009 10:46pm
Quoting Blackeagle
My questions are:

Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?

Is this downtrend reversing? Why?

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?

Everyone, including Strat and the team, please feel free to reply.

Thanks.
Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?

Yes, the last major swing low acting as resistance has not been broken and has not had price close above it.

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?

IMO it is making an attempt, we must wait for further confirmation.

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?

No, My same thoughts to the first question is my reasoning.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trend_line_chart.png Size: 82 KB
  • #8,444
  • Edited 11:02pm Dec 13, 2009 10:51pm | Edited 11:02pm
Quoting Blackeagle
My questions are:

Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?

Is this downtrend reversing? Why?

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?

Everyone, including Strat and the team, please feel free to reply.

Thanks.
Essentially the question that is being asked is: What is Dr. Joe going to say about this?

Ok. First... price seems to be forming an upward channel. ( wish I knew how to put that chart in here with my comments) Just connect lows with lows and highs with highs in the recent MW price moves and you will see the forming channel Second we have higher highs and higher lows showing up. This COULD indicate a reversal but the current price is headed down. So I would want to see it bounce off of the lower channel line that I mentioned and have then have a sustained break of the recent high. Third. What is to the left of this recent formation? Have we run into prior support... and what happened to price in the past if there was prior support ?

But first.. maybe price is hesitating for a further move down? After all the recent move is heading lower. Will it break below the channel I mentioned? Second ....A fib drawn from the top left to the lowest low might help to see if the last high was at a fib level and therefore price is bouncing off of it as well as the channel top.

What would be important to know: The larger PA picture, the smaller PA picture.

I think this is another one of those 'wait til PA shows its cards' and read the candle or candles as price leaves the channel. I like the M formation as a continuation pattern in a downtrend though.
  • #8,445
  • Dec 13, 2009 11:15pm Dec 13, 2009 11:15pm
Quoting Lou

What would be important to know: The larger PA picture, the smaller PA picture.
Assume this is a Boss chart and don't worry about what happened on the left hand side.
  • #8,446
  • Dec 13, 2009 11:21pm Dec 13, 2009 11:21pm
Quoting Blackeagle
My questions are:

Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?

Is this downtrend reversing? Why?

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?

Everyone, including Strat and the team, please feel free to reply.

Thanks.
Interesting.

1. I think the trend is sideways as the chart just made a HH and HL. One way to tell would be to potentially looking at the charts boss for further analysis.

2. It could reversing but with no PASR, how can I tell

3. I don't think it has reversed I would look for a break of the another previous low which is acting as major support.

This is a great exercise and an area I have a lot of trouble with so thanks for posting this.
  • #8,447
  • Edited Dec 14, 2009 12:00am Dec 13, 2009 11:57pm | Edited Dec 14, 2009 12:00am
Quoting Blackeagle
Assume this is a Boss chart and don't worry about what happened on the left hand side.
I would still want to see a break of the v of the M or better.. of the lowest low on a daily close. Would like to see the M skewed more to the right than standing nearly straight up or even skewed to the left as it appears to be.

(how do I attach and draw on the thumbnail Blackeagle originally posted?)
  • #8,448
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:46am Dec 14, 2009 12:46am
Quoting pipfx
Interesting.

2. It could reversing but with no PASR, how can I tell
I have attached Boss chart with PA, now can you tell me?

ps. Please do not name the chart when posting if you find which pair it is.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trend.png Size: 14 KB
  • #8,449
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:53am Dec 14, 2009 12:53am
Quoting Lou
how do I attach and draw on the thumbnail Blackeagle originally posted?
Save the chart anywhere on your hard disk, and then right click on the name of the chart and select Edit, then you can draw on the chart. Maybe there are easier ways to do it.
  • #8,450
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:55am Dec 14, 2009 12:55am
Quoting Blackeagle
I have attached Boss chart with PA, now can you tell me?

ps. Please do not name the chart when posting if you find which pair it is.
I have a tendency to oversimplify everything. It looks like Higher Lows and Higher Highs to me. The recipe for a new direction.
  • #8,451
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:30am Dec 14, 2009 1:30am
This is the same chart (Boss) with more action on the left. See how uptrend changed?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trend 2.png Size: 17 KB
  • #8,452
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:48am Dec 14, 2009 1:48am
Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?
Downtrend still continuing, look at impulse & corrective legs of the trend, counting the bars gives us a clue as to whether bears or bulls are predominant, no bull impulse leg yet apparent

Is this downtrend reversing? Why?
Possibly, making HH & HL on corrective leg of move but have to keep watching PA

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?
Not yet would need to see what price does at last 2 swing lows of impulse leg for confirmation
Attached Image
Wise men say only fools rush in ...
  • #8,453
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:42am Dec 14, 2009 2:42am
Quoting Blackeagle
I have attached Boss chart with PA, now can you tell me?

ps. Please do not name the chart when posting if you find which pair it is.
One of the aspects of reading this thread in London in the morning is that I get the advantage of so many answers posted from the States during the (my) night.........but as is often the case I find I tend to agree with most of them. What an interesting puzzle Blackeagle has set!!

Yes, recent HHs and HLs suggest a trend hesitating and perhaps getting ready to reverse. The PA candles posted now would make me think that the next immediate move is further down.

I would go for the comment (Pipfix) that a trend reversal will only be firmly demonstrated when the penultimate Swing Low on the major DT, which may act as resistance, has been breached.

As for trading? well I would wait for an immediate fall to work its way out and then see if further UP moves are happening after a retrace to and possible retest of the final Swing Low.
  • #8,454
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:58am Dec 14, 2009 2:58am
Quoting Blackeagle
I have attached Boss chart with PA, now can you tell me?

ps. Please do not name the chart when posting if you find which pair it is.
As with Lotuselanman when we wake in the UK we find all the answers already posted. I know this pair so its great to see what everyone else sees and correct my view accordingly.

The trend has demonastrated a decline in sellers to the point where buyers were able to post HH and HL with strong bull bars. The confirmation for me of a new trend will be when the DT retracement is broken and possibly retested.

ATM trade up could be grabbed if a low risk PA appears at next HL touch of the short term up TL. Take profit at DT major retracement resistance line.
  • #8,455
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:34am Dec 14, 2009 3:34am
Quoting Blackeagle
My questions are:

Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?
Yes, any shallow 3 wave move against a larger trend is a correction in my book.

Quote
Is this downtrend reversing? Why?
No it doesnt. I need to see bullish momentum picking up which isnt the case.

Quote
Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?
No.

Considering the multitude of answers it is clear to me that "the trend" is a very personal thingy especially when momentum slows down and the crowd starts looking for reversal signs (me included!).
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,456
  • Dec 14, 2009 3:55am Dec 14, 2009 3:55am
Quoting Blackeagle
My questions are:

Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?

Is this downtrend reversing? Why?

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?

Everyone, including Strat and the team, please feel free to reply.

Thanks.
Yes, I agree with most people, yet just to be contrarian i found this aud/cad chart of last year, which shows a different ending to the story.

Eur aud may be starting somethng similar.

Blackeagle's chart is amazingly relevant as aussie a, kiwi and even euro are doing similar things right now. Thanks!

Spinner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud cad2009-12-14_09-53.jpg Size: 138 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,457
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:02am Dec 14, 2009 4:02am
Quoting Blackeagle
My questions are:

Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?

Is this downtrend reversing? Why?

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?

Everyone, including Strat and the team, please feel free to reply.

Thanks.
Looking at the attached chart, my feeling is that the downtrend will continue because the latest HH & HL look like a correction. The swings overlap and it feels like a distribution. This might result in a change of trend but until there is no clear sign of trend reversal I'll bet on the down trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trend.png Size: 16 KB
  • #8,458
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:04am Dec 14, 2009 4:04am
Is this downtrend still continuing? Why?

No. Dr. Joe says it has stopped going down. Also, looking at the Boss, there were no double hitches on the way up. This is a double hitch.

Is this downtrend reversing? Why?

Yes, for now. All you need to qualify as a trend reversal is a HH and HL and HH. All of these exist.

Has this downtrend already reversed? Why?

Yes, for now. Same answer as above.


Other comments:
I added a DSRI line to the chart. DSRI not broken and until the new week's bar closes below that line you can't say it's broken. Same goes for not being able to call it a LL.

I see the comments regarding Elliot Wave and since that isn't my area of knowledge I'll limit my comment to saying I see a full 5 wave down, an abc correction and an incomplete new wave that has yet to resolve itself in any direction.

The uptrend as it is now may again reverse itself at the resistance line drawn but for now it's going up.
Attached Image
  • #8,459
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:08am Dec 14, 2009 4:08am
Quoting Blackeagle
This is the same chart (Boss) with more action on the left. See how uptrend changed?
Hi Blackeaglehttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

With regard to your example, it is so much different story now that you show the second picture. Looking back and expanding the TF helps tremendously in generating a view here.

Overall trend changed some time ago (downwards) and currently we see a push upwards with HL and HH attempting to gather momentum upwards, however the trend is still down for me.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #8,460
  • Dec 14, 2009 4:26am Dec 14, 2009 4:26am
Quoting hcristea
Looking at the attached chart, my feeling is that the downtrend will continue because the latest HH & HL look like a correction. The swings overlap and it feels like a distribution. This might result in a change of trend but until there is no clear sign of trend reversal I'll bet on the down trend.
I would like to elaborate "no clear sign of trend reversal" in my previous post. Although we have HH & HL on the last 7 candles, the bullish momentum is low. that means even if the Bulls are winning, the Bears are strong too and a butterfly landing on the scale might change it in favour of the Bears.

So, to consider a trend reversal, I would like to see very strong bulls and weak bears.
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