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50 pips candle system

  • #481
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:14am Dec 11, 2009 11:14am
oh so we still waiting for that programmer guy to help us with that EA? =D

or have anyone been working on it already?
  • #482
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:45am Dec 11, 2009 11:45am
hi man can u please tell me the time frame to update for your method ??????

and as i understod ;

1) RG = LONG

2) GR = SHORT

and the t.p (100/150 pip) , i choose the 100 pip t.p

and the s.l (50 pip)

is this right ????

and can u write the results of ur back testing ???/

thanks and have a nice weekend

Quoting Chris_B
Trade Update: last trade at Break Even

sequence: BE -50 -50 -50 -100 BE
total: -250

now i'm long...again with 0.3 lots because i consider BE trades neutral...no wins nor loss..

this market sucks...with this long ranging my version of the strategy is imobilized...

let's see..but I think we will end this friday in range...
  • #483
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:48am Dec 11, 2009 11:48am
Quoting fadi66
hi man can u please tell me the time frame to update for your method ??????

and as i understod ;

1) RG = LONG

2) GR = SHORT

and the t.p (100/150 pip) , i choose the 100 pip t.p

and the s.l (50 pip)

is this right ????

and can u write the results of ur back testing ???/

thanks and have a nice weekend
I've made only a November visually backtest with 1050 pips gain...

I'm forward testing december...

It updates with 1 minute data chart...and in realtime I think tick by tick...but i've noticed that when there is a fast movement it has some problem plotting the candle right..
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #484
  • Edited Dec 12, 2009 12:28am Dec 11, 2009 3:23pm | Edited Dec 12, 2009 12:28am
december updated :
initial method = -150 pips
evolution = 300 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 09-12-11 22 08 32.jpg Size: 35 KB
  • #485
  • Edited 5:35am Dec 12, 2009 5:06am | Edited 5:35am
I've made some visually statistics to my version of this system...and I've noticed that if we talk of probabilities...the 100 TP is the best solution.

I was thinking in 150 TP but...the most of the times when there is a good move it lasts 3 candles, so the first candle is the setup and the others 2 are the 100 pips TP.

With 150 TP I have:
some move of 2 candles that is a Break Even trade
some move of 3 candles that is a +50 gain
some move of 4 or more candles that is a +150 gain

now...if i average the gains of +50 and +150...in the long time i have 100 average... but the 3 candles moves have more probabilities and have more frequency that the 4 candles moves...

so... with 100 TP I have:
some move of 2 candles that is a Break Even trade
some move of 3 or more candles that is a +100 gain

the risk/reward becomes 1:2 but my light martingale works anyway...

I hope it makes sense...
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #486
  • Dec 12, 2009 6:03am Dec 12, 2009 6:03am
I would like to explain a little bit why this kind of martingale is safer and "capital protection" addicted, and why we need a 1:2 risk/reward to make it work...

the "classic" martingale doubles the capital exposure everytime we have a loss and becomes very dangerous after a few losses, the pro is that when you win you recover the losses and make some gain.
(assuming 50 pips SL and 50 pips TP - risk/reward 1:1)

trade 1: 0.10 lots - pips lost 50 (total 50)
trade 2: 0.20 lots - pips lost 100 (total 150) - if win: 100 (total +50)
trade 3: 0.40 lots - pips lost 200 (total 350) - if win: 200 (total +50)
trade 4: 0.80 lots - pips lost 400 (total 750) - if win: 400 (total +50)
trade 5: 1.60 lots - pips lost 800 (total 1550) - if win: 800 (total +50)
trade 6: 3.20 lots - pips lost 1600 (total 3150) - if win: 1600 (total +50)

with the "light" martingale...we have a different progression of the capital exposure, the pro is that we can have more consecutive losses, but when you win...not always you have a gain, sometimes you simply neutralize the loss. But you NEED at least a 1:2 risk/reward.
(assuming 50 pips SL and 100 pips TP - risk/reward 1:2)

trade 1: 0.10 lots - pips lost 50 (total 50)
trade 2: 0.10 lots - pips lost 50 (total 100) - if win: 100 (total +50)
trade 3: 0.10 lots - pips lost 50 (total 150) - if win: 100 (total +0)
trade 4: 0.20 lots - pips lost 100 (total 250) - if win: 200 (total +50)
trade 5: 0.30 lots - pips lost 150 (total 400) - if win: 300 (total +50)
trade 6: 0.40 lots - pips lost 200 (total 600) - if win: 400 (total +0)
trade 7: 0.60 lots - pips lost 300 (total 900) - if win: 600 (total +0)
trade 8: 0.90 lots - pips lost 450 (total 1350) - if win: 900 (total +0)
trade 9: 1.40 lots - pips lost 700 (total 2050) - if win: 1400 (total +50)
trade 10: 2.10 lots - pips lost 1050 (total 3100) - if win 2100 (total +50)

Now...with a simple look we can see that we can lose 10 trades instead of 6 and have the same pips loss...but with less lots involved...and this means less margin required...
And we can see that in some cases we recover the loss and make +50, and in some cases we simply recover the loss.
So where is the gain?? The gain is in the profitable trades...
Martingale is there ONLY to recover losses...not to make gains...

Now...it would be nice to see in the past...the probabilities to have more than 6 or 7 consecutive losses...
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #487
  • Edited 8:09am Dec 12, 2009 7:21am | Edited 8:09am
Today i'm numbers addict...

Zebulon....there is nothing bad with this...i've only analyzed the numbers...to understand what happens on the market and to find a way to make your strategy the better possible!!

I've analyzed the period between September 24 and December 10...so 2 months and a half...
These are the results:

Original Zebulon Method:

50 trades
31 wins
19 loss
max consecutive losses 3

not bad!! Means 62% of wins


Chris Method:

111 trades
32 wins
59 loss
20 BreakEven
max consecutive losses 6

more instable!! Too many consecutive losses due to ranging periods, too many trades, and more or less 30% of wins

Anyway...Zebulon Method has a 1:1 risk/reward, and Chris Method has a 1:2 risk/reward

So...if we translate the above in pips we have:

Zebulon Original Method: +600 pips

Zebulon Evolution Method (with martingale): +850 pips (1550 pips without stopping martingale after 3 losses)

Chris Method (with light martingale): +1600 pips and 1 open trade with 4 consecutive losses until now..


Considerations:
Zebulon Original Method is the simple and safest one, positive pippage, no martingale, good % wins

Zebulon Evolution Method is a little better...but depends much more on the consecutive losses...where the martingale works...in this case if he would not stop the martingale after 3 losses...the results would have been better... It still have a positive pippage and a good % wins

Chris Method is the complex one...the martingale progression is not easy to understand, it has the worst % wins and is the stressful one due to the high numer of trades, big # of losses and consecutive losses and the breakeven trades, anyway has the best pippage due to the 1:2 risk/reward and the fact that the martingale doesn't stop after 3 losses...
A high # of consecutive losses (ranging periods) can seriously stress this method.



EDIT:

I was curious and i did the same test for the other Zebulon method "Alternative method", in the same period it ends up with:

239 trades (every candle)

120 wins
119 loss

max consecutive losses 6

50/50 as assumed....

but the strategy in that period ends with -1000pips... the problem is that the losses are bigger due to the stop of martingale after the third loss
Market is like a puzzle, YOU have to fit the pieces!!
  • #488
  • Dec 12, 2009 8:16am Dec 12, 2009 8:16am
how to trade and when to trade?
is you site or blogs gives hint about the market condition?
sound eveyone is happy here but how can i be one if them ?
  • #489
  • Dec 12, 2009 9:45am Dec 12, 2009 9:45am
Quoting alfalasi
how to trade and when to trade?
is you site or blogs gives hint about the market condition?
sound eveyone is happy here but how can i be one if them ?
It is written in the thread, don`t be lazy and read it from the beggining
  • #490
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:29am Dec 12, 2009 11:29am
Quoting Chris_B
I was curious and i did the same test for the other Zebulon method "Alternative method", in the same period it ends up with:

239 trades (every candle)

120 wins
119 loss

max consecutive losses 6

50/50 as assumed....

but the strategy in that period ends with -1000pips... the problem is that the losses are bigger due to the stop of martingale after the third loss
I retest the alternative method for this period, result = 4 750 pips !!
You can see details on the other thread.
  • #491
  • Edited 5:33pm Dec 12, 2009 11:48am | Edited 5:33pm
September 24 to 30

the candles :
RRRRRRR(RGRGR)RRRG(GRGRG)GRRGGGGGRRRG ()= range, green = win
+-+-+-+ -+-+- +-+- +-+-+ -+-+- +-+-+-+

-50+100-50+100-50+100-50+100+50+50+50+50-50+100-50-100+200+50+50+50+50-50-100+200+50-50+100-50+100+50-50+100+50=1050

i think it is better to understand the rules
(sorry, it is not the good thread, that's about the alternative method.)
  • #492
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:23am Dec 13, 2009 12:23am
Quoting zebulon
here is the backtest :

august :
traditionnal method = 450 pips
evolution = 1250 pips

september :
traditionnal method = 900 pips
evolution = 1300 pips

october :
traditionnal method = 750 pips
evolution = 1900 pips

november :
traditionnal method = 400 pips
evolution = 1200 pips

december :
traditionnal method = 0 pips at the moment
evolution = 150 pips
Hi everyone I would like to know what is the evolution method and if there is a indicator for it already. Sorry I haven't been following this thread for a while.
  • #493
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:24am Dec 13, 2009 12:24am
Does this strategy work very good during the Asian market?
  • #494
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:58am Dec 13, 2009 1:58am
[quote=Chris_B;3301451]Today i'm numbers addict...

Original Zebulon Method:

50 trades
31 wins
19 loss
max consecutive losses 3

not bad!! Means 62% of wins


Chris Method:

111 trades
32 wins
59 loss
20 BreakEven
max consecutive losses 6



Great work Chris......, we seem to be thinking in thesame line; however, how do you get 111 trades as compared to Zebulon's 50 trades for the same month ?

Thanks
  • #495
  • Dec 13, 2009 2:45am Dec 13, 2009 2:45am
Quoting JonJon92
Hi everyone I would like to know what is the evolution method and if there is a indicator for it already. Sorry I haven't been following this thread for a while.
Go to page 23 post n°335
  • #496
  • Dec 13, 2009 5:27am Dec 13, 2009 5:27am
Quoting Chris_B
Follow these instructions and it should work...

1. Place the mq4 code in the Experts directory.

2. Make sure to check the "Allow DLL imports" and "Allow import of external experts" boxes (both of them) are checked. they are under the Saftey section of the Common tab

3. Also check the "Allow live trading" box in the Live Trading section of the Common tab. Also make sure the Expert Advisors button is depressed in the Gui. When everything is good a smiley face will appear in the upper right hand corner.

4. Drop the ea on a 1 minute...
I am using Alpari MT4 and I cant see option of M2 offline chart. How do I enable this.
  • #497
  • Dec 13, 2009 5:47am Dec 13, 2009 5:47am
hi guyes :

i am folowing this thread from the start and the main sucsess is working to gather ....we have to have under line to this amazing thread(method) that is the best for all time .....

guyes all the time , lets says a month and iam working and i have found that the best is to wait until we have 2 g or 2 r

and the go with the trend cause the trend is ur friend but with 30 pip tp

this is what iam working with....and its not so bad look at it check it out and please we have to get to the under line setting our method and work with , thanks and good luck ..

fadi safieh,manager account.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #498
  • Dec 13, 2009 8:42am Dec 13, 2009 8:42am
Chris:

VERY VERY lengthy posts! My question is are you basing a lot of these martingale strategies and results just from visually back testing? TIA
  • #499
  • Dec 13, 2009 9:15am Dec 13, 2009 9:15am
Quoting fxcatty
Chris:

VERY VERY lengthy posts! My question is are you basing a lot of these martingale strategies and results just from visually back testing? TIA
For me yes, but we are waiting backtests with an EA...
  • #500
  • Dec 13, 2009 9:49am Dec 13, 2009 9:49am
hey
i started reading this thread a few days ago, and finally finished this one and alternative method thread..... now my question to you zeblon is " which method do you trade, the original, evolution or alternative?
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