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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #1,181
  • Dec 12, 2009 9:02am Dec 12, 2009 9:02am
Looks like the U/J is in a very interesting spot on the monthly chart..trend lines are not exact but close enough to see it is in a very interesting predicament....

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_monthly.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #1,182
  • Dec 12, 2009 9:29am Dec 12, 2009 9:29am
Quoting NightMoves
Looks like the U/J is in a very interesting spot on the monthly chart..trend lines are not exact but close enough to see it is in a very interesting predicament....

--NM
i think its going down abit more then shoot all the way up when the new yr start alraedy. =D

anyway for the M and W and HnS triggering can be in the retracement trend. dont have to be out of the retracement trend to be entering into the trade. am i right?

i do always see a reversal of a trend in the retracement trend even before it broke out of trend line. should we take it? hmmm.. i think its up to individual how the see the reversal is it?
  • #1,183
  • Dec 12, 2009 9:36am Dec 12, 2009 9:36am
Quoting ja5on
i think its going down abit more then shoot all the way up when the new yr start alraedy. =D

anyway for the M and W and HnS triggering can be in the retracement trend. dont have to be out of the retracement trend to be entering into the trade. am i right?
correct, when there is a trend even in a retracement and it looks good as per the rules it can be traded, you just need to know where the longer term S/R levels are located.

When a small trend like an uptrend on the smaller tiime frame crashes into a trend going in the other direction on the larger time frame, the larger time frame will more than likely win that battle...

--NM
  • #1,184
  • Dec 12, 2009 9:44am Dec 12, 2009 9:44am
hmm. if u see a M in the retracement trend. how would u know whether u want to wait for it to break out of the retracement trend then u enter or u enter when it hits the neckline of the M. what is the things that help u decide?
  • #1,185
  • Dec 12, 2009 9:47am Dec 12, 2009 9:47am
Quoting ja5on
i think its going down abit more then shoot all the way up when the new yr start alraedy. =D

anyway for the M and W and HnS triggering can be in the retracement trend. dont have to be out of the retracement trend to be entering into the trade. am i right?

i do always see a reversal of a trend in the retracement trend even before it broke out of trend line. should we take it? hmmm.. i think its up to individual how the see the reversal is it?
Taking the trade after you see a reversal pattern like you described before it breaks the trend line is realy dependant on how aggressive of a trader you are and how much confirmation you need to take the trade.

I like to get as much confirmation as I can get as in reversal patterns, trend line breaks, sometimes crossing the RN especially if they are all within a few pips of each other.

--NM
  • #1,186
  • Dec 12, 2009 9:54am Dec 12, 2009 9:54am
Quoting ja5on
hmm. if u see a M in the retracement trend. how would u know whether u want to wait for it to break out of the retracement trend then u enter or u enter when it hits the neckline of the M. what is the things that help u decide?
Yes you need to make sure that it breaks the neckline, patterns are nothing more than an indication that it might change direction or continue on, you really need more than just the pattern, you need confirmation that what your seeing is really that, so that is where the bpc comes into play. I would not just trade a pattern all by itself some patterns will start to develop and then fall apart before they are completed.

--NM
  • #1,187
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:02am Dec 12, 2009 10:02am
Quoting NightMoves
Taking the trade after you see a reversal pattern like you described before it breaks the trend line is realy dependant on how aggressive of a trader you are and how much confirmation you need to take the trade.

I like to get as much confirmation as I can get as in reversal patterns, trend line breaks, sometimes crossing the RN especially if they are all within a few pips of each other.

--NM
thanks. but i see sometimes hector take trades after breaking the double top.sometimes i see waiting for it to break the trendline. so abit blur on that
  • #1,188
  • Edited 10:39am Dec 12, 2009 10:16am | Edited 10:39am
Quoting ja5on
thanks. but i see sometimes hector take trades after breaking the double top.sometimes i see waiting for it to break the trendline. so abit blur on that
Again it depends on how aggressively you want to trade. depending on the double or triple top which are nothing more than resistance or support areas that have not been broken but are now being restested, and a break in the direction of the trend would be considered a good entry, I still wait for bpc in most cases though.

--NM
  • #1,189
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:29am Dec 12, 2009 10:29am
Quoting Sutts
I'm on mini lots already Custos. I would have the option of moving to micro which would let me reduce size in chunks of 3% but I've heard bad things about micro and don't really want to go there. Nice idea though. Maybe one day!
Hi Sutts,

I use Micro lots, no problems at all. The only way i could trade at the moment.

I went live 8 weeks ago with £25, I now have £229.49.
I currently risk 5% per trade, which means next week my lot size will be 0.04 as I use a SL of 40. My intention is to drop the risk by 0.5% as my account grows.

I only aim for 150 pips per week, I have managed to do that 6 out of the 8 weeks, I have only had 1 bad week, and the MM kept losses small. As long as I keep to my rules I should hit £1000 by Feb next year, not a bad return on £25.

It is slow going on a micro account, but I am happy with that.

Hope this helps.
VonBek.
  • #1,190
  • Dec 12, 2009 3:46pm Dec 12, 2009 3:46pm
This post relates to swing trading.
I know the safest is always to wait for a break of retracement trendline and bpc and so on.
However, I think the really aggressive way of entering is also not too bad. That would be to enter when price retraces back to the S/R level by the pip and as soon as price bounces off that S/R level you move your stop to breakeven.
Reasoning behind that is that price will in most cases bounce initially off the S/R level, and then decide to either break through the level and hit your stop or you will have a trade from the bottom of the new swing with initially very low risk (hopefully) .
Of course not my invention, I read that in hector's course, and it's as well jacko's strategy I think, but he trades it on higher time-frames.

Just wanted to know, if anybody has any experiences with that, cause I try this entry technique in demo right now. It seems on most occasions you can move stop to b/e very fast. I think this is quite interesting.

best regards
  • #1,191
  • Dec 12, 2009 4:16pm Dec 12, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting Custos
This post relates to swing trading.
I know the safest is always to wait for a break of retracement trendline and bpc and so on.
However, I think the really aggressive way of entering is also not too bad. That would be to enter when price retraces back to the S/R level by the pip and as soon as price bounces off that S/R level you move your stop to breakeven.
Reasoning behind that is that price will in most cases bounce initially off the S/R level, and then decide to either break through the level and hit your stop or you will have a trade from...
I think anytime you can reduce risk without suffocating the market movement then it is worth a try for sure.

--NM
  • #1,192
  • Dec 12, 2009 4:23pm Dec 12, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting Custos
This post relates to swing trading.
I know the safest is always to wait for a break of retracement trendline and bpc and so on.
However, I think the really aggressive way of entering is also not too bad. That would be to enter when price retraces back to the S/R level by the pip and as soon as price bounces off that S/R level you move your stop to breakeven.
Reasoning behind that is that price will in most cases bounce initially off the S/R level, and then decide to either break through the level and hit your stop or you will have a trade from...
Custos,
I think in his new course he has several different techniques than were in it when I took it several years ago. So if you have taken it within the last year or so you probably have all his new tricks of the trade..I am an older alumni of the hector school of pippage...

--NM
  • #1,193
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:44pm Dec 12, 2009 11:44pm
Quoting VonBek
Hi Sutts,

I use Micro lots, no problems at all. The only way i could trade at the moment.

I went live 8 weeks ago with £25, I now have £229.49.
I currently risk 5% per trade, which means next week my lot size will be 0.04 as I use a SL of 40. My intention is to drop the risk by 0.5% as my account grows.

I only aim for 150 pips per week, I have managed to do that 6 out of the 8 weeks, I have only had 1 bad week, and the MM kept losses small. As long as I keep to my rules I should hit £1000 by Feb next year, not a bad return on £25.

It is...
thats quite small. u have to really play within the rules. if not will burn ur money away. haah anyway u trade just using PA also?
  • #1,194
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:53pm Dec 12, 2009 11:53pm
Quoting ja5on
thats quite small. u have to really play within the rules. if not will burn ur money away. haah anyway u trade just using PA also?
Hi Ja5on,

Having such a small account, forces me to stick to my rules and also helps me not to overtrade, which was my main problem.

I use PA and SR, mainly SR from the Weekly chart, (Silent Service Method). As I am not in a position to watch the charts, most of my trades are set up at 4:30 am before I leave for work, this seems to be the best method for me.

VonBek
  • #1,195
  • Dec 13, 2009 7:12am Dec 13, 2009 7:12am
Hi Guys,
I thought I would post this chart on the USDJPY daily. There is JPY news coming out later today, but right now it looks like a classic 1-2-3 on the daily, if it holds we could be looking at shorting this pair over the longer term...but again just my thoughts..

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_daily1-2-3.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #1,196
  • Dec 13, 2009 11:00am Dec 13, 2009 11:00am
Quoting NightMoves
Hi Guys,
I thought I would post this chart on the USDJPY daily. There is JPY news coming out later today, but right now it looks like a classic 1-2-3 on the daily, if it holds we could be looking at shorting this pair over the longer term...but again just my thoughts..

--NM
So would we put our entry at the #2 spot which is at monthly pivot of 87.15 and a trend line break or seeing that it has hit and come back from 61.8 fib and the trend line, could we enter as soon as we see it continuing down and take profit at the monthly pivot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 54 KB
  • #1,197
  • Dec 13, 2009 11:14am Dec 13, 2009 11:14am
Quoting Scratch99
So would we put our entry at the #2 spot which is at monthly pivot of 87.15 and a trend line break or seeing that it has hit and come back from 61.8 fib and the trend line, could we enter as soon as we see it continuing down and take profit at the monthly pivot.
HI Scratch99,
Your entry would be at the number 2 spot if you were trading this daily chart. If it does start heading south there should be trends on the smaller time frame that could be traded before it gets that far.

--NM
  • #1,198
  • Dec 13, 2009 11:15am Dec 13, 2009 11:15am
What do you think of GBPJPY. Also looks like a 1-2-3.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #1,199
  • Edited 11:26am Dec 13, 2009 11:22am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting Scratch99
What do you think of GBPJPY. Also looks like a 1-2-3.
That pair looks similar, these pairs are in an area where they could either direction, I do have them on my watch list it seems as though the GBPJPY has not bounced of a very strong resistance like the USDJPY has done, so it will be interesting to see what it does at this level.

--NM
  • #1,200
  • Dec 13, 2009 11:32am Dec 13, 2009 11:32am
Quoting NightMoves
That pair looks similar, these pairs are in an area where they could either direction, I do have them on my watch list it seems as though the GBPJPY has not bounced of a very strong resistance like the USDJPY has done, so it will be interesting to see what it does at this level.

--NM
Oh Yeh, I see what you mean.
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