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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,601
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:33am Dec 11, 2009 9:33am
I have opened a sell stop trade yesterday to wait market has cracked the trend line I drawed before. The entry point is 1.4660 with 3% risk of my capital. And the sl is 1.4705, tp is 1.4605, after the news released tonight which is quite good for dollar, I closed my position mannually at 1.4611.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 25 KB
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,602
  • Dec 11, 2009 10:10am Dec 11, 2009 10:10am
Quoting saka
I have opened a sell stop trade yesterday to wait market has cracked the trend line I drawed before. The entry point is 1.4660 with 3% risk of my capital. And the sl is 1.4705, tp is 1.4605, after the news released tonight which is quite good for dollar, I closed my position mannually at 1.4611.
  • #21,603
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:26pm Dec 11, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting BenStevo
I think you have to be extremely careful about switching to different (smaller) time periods. My experience is that the line very quickly becomes blurred between legitimate entries on smaller timeframes vs. looking for trades. At the time, it doesn't feel like you're looking for trades - for some funny reason, that only becomes apparent in hindsight.

(...)
Ben, thanks for this. It takes time to recognize prices chart flow on H4. I also think that this Dec has rather nervous pattern. I hope I can recognise the flow clearly.
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  • #21,604
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:09pm Dec 11, 2009 4:09pm
Saka,
I had the same trade as you. My price target was around 1.4505 except that it was/is Fri around 17:00 GMT or 12pm EST and the market shuts down typically around that time. I don't like holding my positions over the week-end. So I closed at 1.4605. Have a nice week-end
  • #21,605
  • Edited 7:42pm Dec 11, 2009 7:03pm | Edited 7:42pm
Quoting saka
Agreed, in my opioin, eu will first get some support from this trend line, then crack it. Just as the gold chart I show you, maybe it will form a sHs pattern, then dollar will become bullish again, a daily chart view.
Saka, you genius . Since it cracked the trendline and 89 SMA with little effort, it is likely that we will see more falls next week although with the low volume it is hard to tell.
  • #21,606
  • Dec 11, 2009 10:40pm Dec 11, 2009 10:40pm
Quoting saka
I have opened a sell stop trade yesterday to wait market has cracked the trend line I drawed before. The entry point is 1.4660 with 3% risk of my capital. And the sl is 1.4705, tp is 1.4605, after the news released tonight which is quite good for dollar, I closed my position mannually at 1.4611.
hi saka,
wonder how did u get 1.4605 as ur tp? thanks
  • #21,607
  • Dec 12, 2009 6:25am Dec 12, 2009 6:25am
Quoting Morelands
Saka,
I had the same trade as you. My price target was around 1.4505 except that it was/is Fri around 17:00 GMT or 12pm EST and the market shuts down typically around that time. I don't like holding my positions over the week-end. So I closed at 1.4605. Have a nice week-end
Good observation, the same to you
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,608
  • Edited 6:56am Dec 12, 2009 6:33am | Edited 6:56am
Quoting xeneric
Saka, you genius . Since it cracked the trendline and 89 SMA with little effort, it is likely that we will see more falls next week although with the low volume it is hard to tell.
I agree, other pairs expect chf don't follow euro, we can't say it is clear that dollar has reversed. At least eu should retrace to the trend line.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,609
  • Dec 12, 2009 6:51am Dec 12, 2009 6:51am
Quoting yuan83
hi saka,
wonder how did u get 1.4605 as ur tp? thanks
just watch the chart, when price leaves a period of consolidation, the target usually is the height of the consolidation. 1.4600 is a big number, I need to set tp above it, the R:R is good enough for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 25 KB
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,610
  • Dec 12, 2009 1:48pm Dec 12, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi aboammar,

I may be misreading your question...wait for the bar to close before entering a trade, that way you don't jump the gun on a "false" bar reading....think you were addressing the current bar...If not...do you have the correct settings for the 4 hour on your charts?
vgood
thx
  • #21,611
  • Dec 13, 2009 4:04am Dec 13, 2009 4:04am
Quoting saka
I have opened a sell stop trade yesterday to wait market has cracked the trend line I drawed before. The entry point is 1.4660 with 3% risk of my capital. And the sl is 1.4705, tp is 1.4605, after the news released tonight which is quite good for dollar, I closed my position mannually at 1.4611.
hi, saka, i have added your msn. it seems you have done a good deal. is it based on the 4 hour macd signal trade?
  • #21,612
  • Dec 13, 2009 7:39am Dec 13, 2009 7:39am
Hi
I am back online with my internet. It was 3 weeks of lots of frustration. Lets hope the problems are solved. I missed on a good lot of deals. I just worked through the thread and saw a lot of good trades being made. Well done. I hope to make some posts this week as well. Lets see if this week bring some trades. Just be aware of the thin volume. That might create some volatility. A shorter timeframe strategy might do well in these times till beginning Jan 2010 next year.
See you in the week.
Thanks SAKA for your posts. They are allways very educationally.
Phillip
  • #21,613
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:46pm Dec 13, 2009 12:46pm
Hey Phillip!!! Hope you got the internet bugs fixed....

Looking at the EU I see nothing but down for the trend. There is a gap that needs to be filled with the 8ema so I'm looking for a price stall or a move back up....leaning towards a move back up.

As far as the $Y goes...the longer term trend is down so this move up might be a breather for that run. All the ma's look to be flattening out here so consolidation in this price area may be on tap...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: e4.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uj4.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #21,614
  • Dec 13, 2009 3:38pm Dec 13, 2009 3:38pm
Quoting Palmer
Hey Phillip!!! Hope you got the internet bugs fixed....

Looking at the EU I see nothing but down for the trend. There is a gap that needs to be filled with the 8ema so I'm looking for a price stall or a move back up....leaning towards a move back up.

As far as the $Y goes...the longer term trend is down so this move up might be a breather for that run. All the ma's look to be flattening out here so consolidation in this price area may be on tap...
Good to see you, you've been missed!
Raymond
  • #21,615
  • Dec 13, 2009 3:55pm Dec 13, 2009 3:55pm
I'm also leaning towards a move back up. I think the 38% retracement will hold in as it did on Fri. I think price will pull back to Saka's trendline/previous support and now resistance. I'll look for candle formations to support the price action and break though the 38% level. However, I believe a lot of institutions and people are going to get squeezed out of their carry trade, so the market may move down more quickly than expected
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 121309-possible trade.gif Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 121309-possible trade,part2.gif Size: 52 KB
  • #21,616
  • Dec 13, 2009 5:40pm Dec 13, 2009 5:40pm
Thanks Morelands....been a lot of stuff going on the past several months. I've been helping Phillip with his FX Combo forum and have recently started to trade FX options...good and bad points to that and still mulling through it. Hoping to be posting here in the evenings regularly again.
  • #21,617
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:03am Dec 14, 2009 12:03am
Quoting Palmer
Thanks Morelands....been a lot of stuff going on the past several months. I've been helping Phillip with his FX Combo forum and have recently started to trade FX options...good and bad points to that and still mulling through it. Hoping to be posting here in the evenings regularly again.
Great to see you here again Palmer. Was just thinking the other day that its been a couple of months since we've seen you online. Looking forward to having you around a bit more again.
  • #21,618
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:37am Dec 14, 2009 12:37am
Quoting fxzl
hi, saka, i have added your msn. it seems you have done a good deal. is it based on the 4 hour macd signal trade?
yes, just see the MACD pattern, it's zero bounce
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,619
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:52am Dec 14, 2009 12:52am
Quoting Phillip Nel
Hi
I am back online with my internet. It was 3 weeks of lots of frustration. Lets hope the problems are solved. I missed on a good lot of deals. I just worked through the thread and saw a lot of good trades being made. Well done. I hope to make some posts this week as well. Lets see if this week bring some trades. Just be aware of the thin volume. That might create some volatility. A shorter timeframe strategy might do well in these times till beginning Jan 2010 next year.
See you in the week.
Thanks SAKA for your posts. They are allways very educationally.
Phillip...
hi phillip, I have been expecting for a long time to wait you back!
Thanks for your encouragement, I still have a belief that if we have a good analysis of daily/weekly with traditional method, we will have a high probablitiy trade at 4h strategy
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,620
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:54am Dec 14, 2009 12:54am
Quoting Palmer
Hey Phillip!!! Hope you got the internet bugs fixed....

Looking at the EU I see nothing but down for the trend. There is a gap that needs to be filled with the 8ema so I'm looking for a price stall or a move back up....leaning towards a move back up.

As far as the $Y goes...the longer term trend is down so this move up might be a breather for that run. All the ma's look to be flattening out here so consolidation in this price area may be on tap...
Hey, Plamer, I am very happy to see another friend coming back! Expect your post as well
Plan your trades and trade your plans
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