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AUD/USD

  • #11,521
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:16am Dec 11, 2009 9:16am
Quoting Jesus4748
THE EURO LOST OVER 100 PIPS NOW AND THE GOLD LOST AROUND 15 DOLLARS , i said its bearish guys but no one believed me

the weakness of the euro cause by the some of eurozone members such as portugal,italy,ireland,greece, and spain has to many debt and could be in trouble , dubai wanna be i think
  • #11,522
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:17am Dec 11, 2009 9:17am
Quoting TexasforEX
could be a couple of scenarios.

First, the strong equity and weak dollar correlation is continuing to decouple.

Second, USD strength is a canary in the coal mine and equities will be dragged down by this.

I subscribe to the second scenario for now. I believe there will be a decoupling. I am a big equity bear and after a sharp correction, I will be a big USD bear.

Hope this helps.
Thanks mate!
  • #11,523
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:19am Dec 11, 2009 9:19am
Quoting Jesus4748
good , i knew it ll spike high first before going down , i shorted again of 85 and i wont bother even if it goes all the way up now cause this might be the bounce down or it might be a big signal that this trend is very exhasuted ,,
i m happy with my position now but this bitch messed my 9200 short entry with 7 pips
fucken hate when that happens
THE EURO IS SMACKED AND THE GOLD IS BLEEDING
Wow - getting a bit heated in here on almost a daily basis. I've never thought of the A/U as a dog but each to their own.

This bad boy is holding up really well while the EUR is tanking. This pair hasn't been worth trading this week. A/J has been better.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #11,524
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:23am Dec 11, 2009 9:23am
Yes, and the pound as well. These two are strong, stayed around the pivot lines forever, even with gold and silver falling.
  • #11,525
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:25am Dec 11, 2009 9:25am
Quoting ben10
now if she fall below 9140 and penetrate below 9115 then the bull could lose the fight and the bear got the crown.
anyone adding short and stop at 9140?
  • #11,526
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:30am Dec 11, 2009 9:30am
Quoting ben10
anyone adding short and stop at 9140?
the EURO gave me some confussion there , it went down hard and it ll find a tmp support soon but the AUD didnt catch the heat and it lost 50 pips only , it could see some support cause the down of the euro running out of steam and it ll go high and the gold as well and that will drive the AUD high little bit ,, i m very cautions now for shorting , if the 9130 breaks and 9100 i m gonna add short
  • #11,527
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:33am Dec 11, 2009 9:33am
Quoting Patience
Wow - getting a bit heated in here on almost a daily basis. I've never thought of the A/U as a dog but each to their own.

This bad boy is holding up really well while the EUR is tanking. This pair hasn't been worth trading this week. A/J has been better.
Hi Patience, i dont trade the euro but lot of hearsay that big hedge fund shorting it buy buying the credit default swap in anticipation of the bond from eur zone countries will fall include some of the baltic region countries such lat and forint
  • #11,528
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:36am Dec 11, 2009 9:36am
Quoting Jesus4748
the EURO gave me some confussion there , it went down hard and it ll find a tmp support soon but the AUD didnt catch the heat and it lost 50 pips only , it could see some support cause the down of the euro running out of steam and it ll go high and the gold as well and that will drive the AUD high little bit ,, i m very cautions now for shorting , if the 9130 breaks and 9100 i m gonna add short
i will add short too if the price move south below it
  • #11,529
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:38am Dec 11, 2009 9:38am
Quoting Jesus4748
the EURO gave me some confussion there , it went down hard and it ll find a tmp support soon but the AUD didnt catch the heat and it lost 50 pips only , it could see some support cause the down of the euro running out of steam and it ll go high and the gold as well and that will drive the AUD high little bit ,, i m very cautions now for shorting , if the 9130 breaks and 9100 i m gonna add short
I closed my Euro shorts but still short on AUD/USD. I think it needs to get to the 90s atleast tonight if not lower. With commodities going down and no interest rate rise till feb, thats plenty ammunition. I think we should keep the shorts for a while yet
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,530
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:40am Dec 11, 2009 9:40am
if was stupid thought to short AUD not Euro , the euro has been the weakest against the dollar since the big fall last week , and it should have been the perfect shorting target
  • #11,531
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:51am Dec 11, 2009 9:51am
Quoting Jesus4748
if was stupid thought to short AUD not Euro , the euro has been the weakest against the dollar since the big fall last week , and it should have been the perfect shorting target
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/hot-chart/?a=1225
  • #11,532
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:53am Dec 11, 2009 9:53am
Wednesdays low has to be taken out by Wednesday next week. Although i do think we will get a bigger drop than that and hopefully take out the low of the 27th November. The 18th Dec offers 13 calender days down from my previous cycle point, and i would expect a bounce into 24th before resuming its down trend into the 21st of Jan. The cycle low is due around then. I will continue to add shorts on confirmation of pullbacks on the H1 and H4 levels due to RSI and bolly bands.
  • #11,533
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:54am Dec 11, 2009 9:54am
im ot of here and have a great weekend everyone!
  • #11,534
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:59am Dec 11, 2009 9:59am
someting like shahabl8 mention on the dialy chart for aud/usd foming a triangle looks more and more make sence to me, as long as the 0.9012 holds(wave c low), it maybe has a push up to 0.9240 zone(wave b 0.618 projection) to finish its wave d in the triangle.be carefull to short it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDDAILY.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #11,535
  • Dec 11, 2009 10:03am Dec 11, 2009 10:03am
Quoting ben10
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/hot-chart/?a=1225
i think i was anticipating the same scenario with the AUD when i refered for the third wave down
the gold made a lower low today , it spiked to 1113 , still as i said looking for a base for move up and didnt find it
  • #11,536
  • Dec 11, 2009 10:11am Dec 11, 2009 10:11am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Took 40 pips on AUDUSD,risk just 20 PIPS SL

This is picture when i took trade
Good sell ? heheh
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #11,537
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:13pm Dec 11, 2009 1:13pm
thats my chart i posted earlier today and thats the recent chart , good call it was
i wont bother lookin further to the charts to anticipate the next move as we r going throught the weekend already and time to start relaxing now ,,
happy weekend everyone and cya on monday morning
i think anyways consolidation will take place till the close time
that stop in the trend could be cause of less liquidity or could be late friday is the cause
or it could be a bounce up , i dont mean up trend i mean little correction in the wave 3 down , will look closer to the charts one the weekend to decide the next move and i ll hold part ofmy short throught the weekend , shorted 9185
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_03 Dec. 11 07.31.jpg Size: 330 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_03 Dec. 11 21.07.jpg Size: 304 KB
  • #11,538
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:58pm Dec 11, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting kidd
someting like shahabl8 mention on the dialy chart for aud/usd foming a triangle looks more and more make sence to me, as long as the 0.9012 holds(wave c low), it maybe has a push up to 0.9240 zone(wave b 0.618 projection) to finish its wave d in the triangle.be carefull to short it
eur/usd daily stoch in a very very oversold position, it doesnot like another big declind on the way, i think the first 5 wave declind for eur/usd should be end really soon, the big correction wave 2 target 1.4900 zone is coming.
according to the eur/usd big wave 2 bounce, as i mention the aud triangle should be consider, aud one more push up to the 0.9240 zone.(my thought for this 5 wave declind in this aud/usd have to reconsider)
  • #11,539
  • Dec 12, 2009 7:07pm Dec 12, 2009 7:07pm
Quoting Patience
I think we are going to see some US$ strength going into Xmas/NY based on the USDX chart. I don't think a test of 78.00 is out of the question. Profit taking, agitated central banks, over-extended yearly ranges are a few of my reasons as well.

Attachment
USDX playing out as anticipated. Shame I didn't take advantage of it by selling the EUR. Had a quick squiz at the EUR thread - there's quite a lot of pain and suffering going on over there with some substantial losses for some posters. My view hasn't changed based on USDX. I'm still expecting to see some overall love for the US$.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX-WEEKLY-13DEC.PNG Size: 83 KB


AUD/USD has, however, held up very well. Just as a reminder, AUD isn't included in the USDX. Even with gold tanking around $110.00 this doesn't seem to have mattered much to AUD/USD. We only had a weekly range of 176 pips as well. The average monthly range for AUD/USD for 2009 is 636 pips. We've done 303 pips so far this month with the high at 0.9322 and low at 0.9019. Looks like we might need a bit of risk aversion to knock this baby for six.

Below is the daily AUD/USD with Gold overlaid.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD_GLD-DAILY.PNG Size: 87 KB
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #11,540
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:57pm Dec 13, 2009 1:57pm
The weekly template shows that so far the price is near level 7/8 of the green octave. Further upward move after reaching level 7/8-0.9277 is likely (Fig. 1).

http://www.2targetsmethod.com/images...9/image001.jpg
Fig. 1 - W1

http://www.2targetsmethod.com/images...9/image002.jpg
Fig. 2 - W1

The layout of new points shows that the uptrend may continue in the net with greater strides (Fig. 2).

According to the detailed analysis the price hit level 0.9277 and reversed downside. After hitting level 4/8 it reversed upward again (Fig. 2).

http://www.2targetsmethod.com/images...9/image003.jpg
Fig. 2 – 60

Further analysis shows that upward move from level 2/8 may continue (Fig. 3).

http://www.2targetsmethod.com/images...9/image004.jpg
Fig. 3 – 60
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