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  • #13,521
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:20am Dec 8, 2009 5:20am
There are a number of posts in this thread mentioning Sam Seiden and his method of trading S/R zones. I'm not trying to inject an alternative method but simply looking for feedback on those using one vs the other or both. Sam uses "buckets" for S/R and his primary entry method, while BRV uses "buckets" as one of the entry methods. Sometimes I get conflicting signals while looking at one vs the other. Any comments? Reliability of one or the other? Your experience with these? How you use them? Thank you.

BRV way
Attached Image


Seiden way
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  • #13,522
  • Edited 9:07am Dec 9, 2009 12:23am | Edited 9:07am
These may be more "trend" trades but are using daily S&R, so I figured I could include them in this thread.

EUR/USD for a short 1.48 - 1.485. I'm trying to pay more attention to price action and enter only after the level has been touched and a candle indicates that price is ready to react as I expect.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2.../th_eudec9.jpg

USD/CHF - same trade as the EUR/USD, looking for a bounce off 1.02

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2...h_uchfdec9.jpg
  • #13,523
  • Dec 9, 2009 8:43am Dec 9, 2009 8:43am
Quoting medici
Yes, the difference is very clear. I trade London mornings only. The phenomenon has not so much to do with news as with market structure and equity market correlations. The best hours are 6-8 am London time, when no cash equity markets are open, and the fx action is based on dealers executing orders. This morning, for example, it was a matter of selling at the Frankfurt open in cable and euro, make breakfast, and collect the paycheck later. Notice also how short-term S/R levels are respected in a gentlemanly manner - unlike during the NY session...

Exactly, I like this time too. Admittedly I start a little earlier even before Europe opens but I am usually done by 4:30 a.m. EST. I am not pushing things. If I see now sure big moves I am scalping and not trying to push my trading. This time currencies moves look more predictable than when New York opens. so, I stopped trading New York.
Ultimately results depend upon not only in what time to trade but when to avoid trading at all.
  • #13,524
  • Edited 10:05am Dec 9, 2009 10:04am | Edited 10:05am
Quoting shiko
Ultimately results depend upon not only in what time to trade but when to avoid trading at all.
Exactly, it's about managing risk. Then profit is what results.

And when it comes to trading these hours, I did some statistical analysis for cable a couple of weeks ago. More specifically, I calculated what the drawdown would be if one entered a trade in the 'right' direction at 6am and 7am - by calculating min(abs(open-high), abs(open-low)) for those hours over the past three years.

The result is that a 6am entry and a 15 SL wouldn't be stopped out 90% of the time. For 7am the SL would have to be about 20 pips not to be stopped out 90% of the time.

So this corroborates the following very simple-minded strategy: If, at about 6am or 7am, cable is at a support/resistance level, enter long/short with a 15 or 20 pip SL.

And this week it has worked particularly well :-)
  • #13,525
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:51pm Dec 9, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting medici
Exactly, it's about managing risk. Then profit is what results.

And when it comes to trading these hours, I did some statistical analysis for cable a couple of weeks ago. More specifically, I calculated what the drawdown would be if one entered a trade in the 'right' direction at 6am and 7am - by calculating min(abs(open-high), abs(open-low)) for those hours over the past three years.

The result is that a 6am entry and a 15 SL wouldn't be stopped out 90% of the time. For 7am the SL would have to be about 20 pips not to be stopped out 90% of the...
How would you enter a trade like that at 6 or 7 am...It must make sense to have a pending order for both long and short with a 15/20 pip SL...depending whether you enter at 6 or 7...and maybe have a few pips buffer zone???Kinda like a breakout system..am I on the right track here...???? Blinkers.....
  • #13,526
  • Edited 2:32pm Dec 9, 2009 2:10pm | Edited 2:32pm
Quoting artov
Looks to me like an interesting level to look for a short on the Dow. And there is some good divergence too.
good call.. dow found some support at 10231 .. looks like were in some kind of distribution phase before christmas , hoping to see a retrace up to 10450 area ideally in coming days/ weeks but some resistance before then !
once the bankers have had there bonus could see some carnage !!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,527
  • Dec 9, 2009 2:11pm Dec 9, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting fxblinkers
How would you enter a trade like that at 6 or 7 am...It must make sense to have a pending order for both long and short with a 15/20 pip SL...depending whether you enter at 6 or 7...and maybe have a few pips buffer zone???Kinda like a breakout system..am I on the right track here...???? Blinkers.....
The "how", frankly, involves assessing trend, news, market sentiment, equity markets over night, technical patterns etc. In practice it means putting in a good few months/years before you get it. Don't know what you mean by pending orders in both directions, but statistically speaking (I've tested it) it's a matter of breakout half of the time and reversal half of the time (by reference of Asian high/low). So the answer to "how?" is...purely discretionary.
  • #13,528
  • Dec 9, 2009 2:51pm Dec 9, 2009 2:51pm
Quoting sam0182
These may be more "trend" trades but are using daily S&R, so I figured I could include them in this thread.

EUR/USD for a short 1.48 - 1.485. I'm trying to pay more attention to price action and enter only after the level has been touched and a candle indicates that price is ready to react as I expect.

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2.../th_eudec9.jpg

USD/CHF - same trade as the EUR/USD, looking for a bounce...
hey sam .. good calls just stopped short of levels unlucky .. looks like the euro bounced off an hourly s/r at 1.4781. there may be another shot at it though .

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  • #13,529
  • Dec 9, 2009 3:39pm Dec 9, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting booker66
hey sam .. good calls just stopped short of levels unlucky .. looks like the euro bounced off an hourly s/r at 1.4781. there may be another shot at it though .

Attachment
Yeah, perhaps I should have taken a closer look. Next time

Any levels that you're currently watching Booker?
  • #13,530
  • Dec 9, 2009 9:32pm Dec 9, 2009 9:32pm
Quoting pipimo88
There are a number of posts in this thread mentioning Sam Seiden and his method of trading S/R zones. I'm not trying to inject an alternative method but simply looking for feedback on those using one vs the other or both. Sam uses "buckets" for S/R and his primary entry method, while BRV uses "buckets" as one of the entry methods. Sometimes I get conflicting signals while looking at one vs the other. Any comments? Reliability of one or the other? Your experience with these? How you use them? Thank you.
They are both valid ways to identify support and resistance and both share the same fundamental principle behind them.

IMO the BRV way is more accurate as you usually have a pinpoint price level that you enter at. While Seiden's buckets are S/R zones which means price could turn anywhere in that zone and you would thus need a larger stop loss maybe even a smaller position size.

There's no doubt that BRV's way is more reliable and easier to trade but that does not mean Seiden's way is bad. I use both but I use BRV's method more often as they are usually the easiest to trade.
  • #13,531
  • Dec 10, 2009 5:40am Dec 10, 2009 5:40am
Quoting PLooB
They are both valid ways to identify support and resistance and both share the same fundamental principle behind them.

IMO the BRV way is more accurate as you usually have a pinpoint price level that you enter at. While Seiden's buckets are S/R zones which means price could turn anywhere in that zone and you would thus need a larger stop loss maybe even a smaller position size.

There's no doubt that BRV's way is more reliable and easier to trade but that does not mean Seiden's way is bad. I use both but I use BRV's method more often as they...

Every trading style is just about the same. They all work some times better then the other and vice versa. Just stick to one and take trades with good risk to reward and thats it. You will get loosing streaks and you will also get winning streaks . Trading cant be perfect if it was then it would be no market. So just trade and aslong as your trading with some sort of edge and have good money management thats it. Nothing else matters.
  • #13,532
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:32am Dec 11, 2009 2:32am
Quoting pipimo88
There are a number of posts in this thread mentioning Sam Seiden and his method of trading S/R zones. I'm not trying to inject an alternative method but simply looking for feedback on those using one vs the other or both. Sam uses "buckets" for S/R and his primary entry method, while BRV uses "buckets" as one of the entry methods. Sometimes I get conflicting signals while looking at one vs the other. Any comments? Reliability of one or the other? Your experience with these? How you use them? Thank you.
Both are reliable and not necessarily against each other method. And both need many execution before we know what makes some setup work and some other setup doesn't.

When conflicting, especially if there's not enough space for possible reward > risk for that particular trade, then skip them. And usually, inside a bucket, there use to be at least 1 support becoming resistance / vice versa or an untested clean breakout. Look for a bucket that have clear line of that.
  • #13,533
  • Dec 11, 2009 7:07am Dec 11, 2009 7:07am
Quote
Every trading style is just about the same. They all work some times better then the other and vice versa. Just stick to one and take trades with good risk to reward and thats it. You will get loosing streaks and you will also get winning streaks . Trading cant be perfect if it was then it would be no market. So just trade and aslong as your trading with some sort of edge and have good money management thats it. Nothing else matters.

i never post, but i just couldnt resist on this one, absolutely the best answer and quite frankly the "holy grail" to trading
  • #13,534
  • Dec 11, 2009 8:44am Dec 11, 2009 8:44am
We have a break of a flag on eur/usd 1 hr.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd1hr.PNG Size: 57 KB
  • #13,535
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:03pm Dec 11, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting kimo
i never post, but i just couldnt resist on this one, absolutely the best answer and quite frankly the "holy grail" to trading
Yes. I agree. this business is hard. People think they can take some time and become second Soros. It requires a lot of time to become successful in what you do. I would compare it to surgeons. The knowledge and reflexes those guys develop are out of this universe. Now, trading is not much different. Successful traders like BRV, Merlin are few. Someone from the street cannot expect to enter this trade, make some pips and think they can make money consstently. Market changes all the time. Back testing s meanengless.
We gotta be like surgeouns in medcine to become truly successful and this means a lot of time and sweat spent.
  • #13,536
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:02pm Dec 11, 2009 3:02pm
Sorry Shiko, I don't agree. Yes, there can be great skill in trading, but trading can also be very simple, and very simple can still be immensely profitable. The tough part in trading is psychological, and not the trading itself.
  • #13,537
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:47pm Dec 11, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting Mr J
Sorry Shiko, I don't agree. Yes, there can be great skill in trading, but trading can also be very simple, and very simple can still be immensely profitable. The tough part in trading is psychological, and not the trading itself.
What do you think I was meaning? Yes, it looks simple on the outseide, but it is not easy as it looks. Psychology is 90% of this game.
  • #13,538
  • Dec 12, 2009 6:13pm Dec 12, 2009 6:13pm
Quoting shiko
What do you think I was meaning? Yes, it looks simple on the outseide, but it is not easy as it looks. Psychology is 90% of this game.
I didn't say it isn't as easy as it looks. For some it is, for some it is not, and for others it is impossible. If we split trading between trading skill and psychological skill, some will find one easier and the other hard, some find both hard, and some find both easy. Trading is both hard and easy, it just depends who we ask.

I don't think we can make generalisations about the difficulty of trading. I will say it's easy because I think it's easy. It doesn't mean it is easy, at least from the perspective of others. Probably not much point in this though, because it's better people approach trading thinking it is difficult, than thinking it is easy.
  • #13,539
  • Edited 5:35am Dec 14, 2009 5:27am | Edited 5:35am
Potential 1-2-3 break on A/U on 1H. I'm looking to go long at the confluence of 5M trendline and 5M bucket at .9065 with a tight stop (18-20 pips). If stopped out, then will wait to go long around the .8975 (entry long on 5M bucket there). Targeting .9175 zone and not looking for that break today since the area has 2 things: (1) 5M bucket which started the move down today and (2) ADR reached for today. Will look for a small rejection there and re-entry long and looking for the break tomorrow.

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  • #13,540
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:36pm Dec 14, 2009 1:36pm
Watching USD/CAD for shorts in the 1.0613-1.0620 range.

15min shown below...

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/1513/ucadhs.th.png
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