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  • #8,321
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:13pm Dec 8, 2009 6:13pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Always Dr. Joe. He was in command, is still in command and will be in the future.
LOL - Indeed!
  • #8,322
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:29pm Dec 8, 2009 6:29pm
Quoting strat
I received a couple of emails over the week-end, one on being frustrated at giving up profits and the other on being frustrated with losing.

Here is how I replied.

These are both symptoms of traders not at peace with themselves or in control of their emotions.

Both revolve around our greed and fear emotions.

Let’s look at giving up profits:

[font=Arial]Being in profit on a trade elates most new traders as the excitement of finally winning...
Haven't been posting much, but still here.

This is one of those posts I find worth the price of admission (priceless).

Has anyone experienced what Strat described here? Or...has this post passed you by (or you passed it by)? We should probably see 95% of the posts like this since 95% of trading is Psychological.

I have had a taste (very tiny, but a taste) of what you describe and can see it more clearly now.
In the past, even though I would have read and understood what you wrote, it wouldn't have sunk in as much as it does now (and probably more when I read it again in a few months).

Thanks Strat.

This stuff is better than TITZ.
  • #8,323
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:37pm Dec 8, 2009 6:37pm
I know a few of us watching this setup. I am visualizing my entry. Does that work? My wife says it does.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,324
  • Dec 8, 2009 7:47pm Dec 8, 2009 7:47pm
Quoting strat
I know from the thread Strat doesn't use EW, or GANN....
Thanks Strat...will do.
  • #8,325
  • Edited 12:56am Dec 9, 2009 12:45am | Edited 12:56am
Hello all!
Thought I'd share my losing gold trade with you.

I took a long off that 'hammer' 2 days ago and was rinsed and became a 'trapped trader' myself!

I recall thinking exactly this at the time and as such set my long stop-buy a little higher than normal (for safety) and was hit by 0.5 of a pip - and then rinsed.#

As there was no SR level I did consider just leaving it but then I thought about taking every with-trend opportunity the market offered. Looking at the past action every fall-back to the 20ema offered a good long. So, I thought it would offer a 2:1 RR ratio long back into test the high with a daily double top.

Looking at the Boss I guess the warning was there - although the chart and Dr Joe were shouting long only, there was a weekly Shooting Star on my feed but I didn't take it as the stop was too wide for the account balance and it was a counter STRONG trend trade; with no significant TL break prior to the Star I would not be considering short.

So, 2% of account balance down, but the positives as my Excel sheet and hyperlinks to charts and review is working as was my money management. I also stuck to my plan and took a with trend entry and also didn't check the charts intra-day (like I would have done years ago) -so I'm not being overly negative about it as I have the positives of sticking to my plan.

Thanks for the great stuff about the psychology again Strat - the most important part of trading we all should know. The good thing with my loser was the fact I had applied the 2%/6% rule and as such didn't fear the trade or outcome.

Just thought I'd share this for your analysis and thoughts, post event.

Good trading all!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,326
  • Edited 2:27am Dec 9, 2009 2:20am | Edited 2:27am
Hello Grimweasel,
I was also inclined to enter LONG (considering Dr. Joe's axioms) above the hammer from Monday. I didn't placed a BUY STOP order above because that NFP candle from Friday was too big, too bearish... too scary
  • #8,327
  • Dec 9, 2009 2:20am Dec 9, 2009 2:20am
Quoting Grimweasel
Hello all!
Thought I'd share my losing gold trade with you.
Thanks for sharing Grimweasel...I have Gold on my watchlist...we are in the 20/50 trap at the moment my question is where are the big long term buyers...at the 50 or a little lower at the trend line. I have a hook reserved for that moment once/if they show their hand through PA.

From having worked on a metals desk I would say the big issue with gold and silver is that the majority of players are hedge funds...when they want to head for the exit they all tend to march together and unlike FX and Base Metals where you can call a list of corporates to shift positions you cannot with gold and silver (you cannot just call a central bank) so liquidity can just "vanish" producing dramatic drops in a very short period of time.

I keep this chart of the 1979/1980 gold move to hand just to remind me what damage a "mental" stop could do. Guaranteed stops from IG only for me on this one.

p50 - Nison - "A hook's well lost to catch a salmon".
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #8,328
  • Edited 3:55am Dec 9, 2009 3:15am | Edited 3:55am
Thanks guys - I had a 'gut' feeling there was something off about it, but it was the first trade in 6months (Live) with my new account and I think fell for being too eager to trade. A good reminding lesson in patience. The real test should be at the rising TL as that's where the true value should exist. Gold seems to trade very well off the 4hr chart and I know some people who trade gold exclusivley off that chart; as I'm a daily man now, I may just give up on gold and become a weekly 'investor' should the opportunity arise!

All should read this btw - excellent blog

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/...s-more-on.html
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,329
  • Dec 9, 2009 3:28am Dec 9, 2009 3:28am
Grimweasel said:

So, 2% of account balance down, but the positives as my Excel sheet and hyperlinks to charts and review is working as was my money management. I also stuck to my plan and took a with trend entry and also didn't check the charts intra-day (like I would have done years ago) -so I'm not being overly negative about it as I have the positives of sticking to my plan.


Thanks for sharing it, Grim. In hindsight most of the points you offer a valid and can be discussed one way or other. And I'm sure there are thousands of traders thinking about exactly when to take a long (Maybe the 76.4 fib as it joins the 100 ema?).

Maybe my offering would be about questioning your MM. Myself, I'm not quite sure I would risk 2% of my account in one single trade, least of all after this magnificent rally, with the rubber band effect in play.

Just my penny.

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,330
  • Dec 9, 2009 4:08am Dec 9, 2009 4:08am
Quoting Spinner
Grimweasel said:
Quoting Spinner

So, 2% of account balance down, but the positives as my Excel sheet and hyperlinks to charts and review is working as was my money management. I also stuck to my plan and took a with trend entry and also didn't check the charts intra-day (like I would have done years ago) -so I'm not being overly negative about it as I have the positives of sticking to my plan.


Thanks for sharing it, Grim. In hindsight most of the points you offer...


Thanks Spinner - you are right, perhaps 2% could have been too much. The issue lies with broker min pip size value and meaningful stops I think. I set the 2%-6% rule ages ago as it seems to be a widely held MM level.

I did read another Pro's comments that said the whole RR ratio thing was a loser from the start as one is placing their profit target further away than their accepted loss - not sure I fully understand that concept and would welcome debate. I think it was from a top 50 tips from a CFA trader?

The key to this business is all about risk management so any way of effectively reducing and managing 'damage' to the bottom line should be applauded.

I only caught up on Strat's comments on 'needlework' after the event! Guess it was elastic band time - ping!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,331
  • Edited 4:23am Dec 9, 2009 4:13am | Edited 4:23am
Since trading psychology comes up again and again I thought that I would share my method for accepting the market in all her different moods and what she has to offer.

I have read a number of trading psychology books and to be honest my technical brain has problems with the big words, flowery examples and exercises where you must chant “ I’m a top trader and the market is my friend” 50 times each morning. So I developed an analogy that works for me ( probably based on spending a lot of my youth in pubs ( bars to my American friends ) ), it may be rather odd but re-iterates to me that we are in a percentages game, and in time with the correct methods we will profit.

By coincidence – I watched a Mark Douglas video a while ago and he made similar references to this method.

Here goes
To me the market is analogous to a 3 wheel slot machine in a bar. You put your coin in the machine, the coin being your initial risk appetite ( SL pips x stake per pip - defined by your money management techniques ) and you spin the wheels. With no rules, method, or system in place you win on average 2 out of every 10 spins. So in the long run you loose and your pockets are emptied. And if you have no money management in place you are unable to predict anything.

Now I stick a screwdriver in the first reel jamming it on a winning symbol which is analogous to me implementing Support and Resistance methods in my trading. When the coin is entered only two reels determine if I win or loose. Now on average I win 5 out of every 10 spins. So in the long run I break even.

Finally I stick a screwdriver in the second wheel jamming it on the same winning symbol as the first jammed wheel, this is analogous to me implementing Price Action methods in my trading as well as Support and Resistance methods. Now when the coin is entered only one reel determines if I win or loose. On average I win 7 out of every 10 spins. So in the long run I am profitable. Now as long as I follow my rules ( the screwdrivers don’t fall out ) the slot machine can be fed with money and I know in the long run I will end up on top and my pockets bulge with coins. Yes there will be 3 out of 10 losers but no pain is felt because on average I will be in long term profit.

This analogy may seam a little puerile, but it works for me in keeping my emotions in check and re-iterating that I am participating in a probability driven business, if I keep the percentages on my side profits will come. And is especially useful when I have a loss – just follow the rules, put another coin in and see where that one reel stops.

I’m off to see my psychologist now.....
  • #8,332
  • Dec 9, 2009 4:27am Dec 9, 2009 4:27am
Quoting cliftonarms
By coincidence – I watched a Mark Douglas video a while ago and he made similar references to this method....
Just tell me who your psycho is so I'll go too :nerd:

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,333
  • Dec 9, 2009 4:28am Dec 9, 2009 4:28am
Nice analogy Clifton - I may save that one for my journal - thanks for sharing!

Another gem I was sent by a trader-mate, also worthy of journalising!

"The rules are simple; trade with the trend, cut losses and let profits run. Execution is more demanding and the most important attribute for success is discipline. It’s best to stay open-minded and plan for different scenarios. As Confucianist Scripture points out, “There were four things from which the Master was entirely free. He had no foregone conclusions, no arbitrary pre-determinations, no obstinacy and no egoism.”
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,334
  • Dec 9, 2009 4:45am Dec 9, 2009 4:45am
[quote=Grimweasel;3293022]


The key to this business is all about risk management so any way of effectively reducing and managing 'damage' to the bottom line should be applauded.


I think there is a good comment about R/R on the thread and even in J16's thread. something along the lines of setting a R/R according to the a mount of wins to losers you have. For example, you have a system that gives you 20 wins to one looser, your take profit is not the same as if you have a system that gives you ten to one, or one to one. You need to estimate that yourself.

There's also some other post where Strat deals with this issue, sorry I can't recall where exactly.

And then, some traders talk about just a few trades giving them most of the profit, whilst the others are losers, small profits,b/e.

Attached some examples of profit taking. somebody did a survey on that and come with percentage wins, losses, etc. Can't find it right now. Anyway Just examples. I don't know if I could be so maths oriented, myself. It also doesn't refer to adding positions.

The thing really is to have the experience to recognize a good trend and stay there.

Another penny

Spinner
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Exit Strategy Testing.doc   30 KB | 738 downloads
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,335
  • Edited 8:35am Dec 9, 2009 6:56am | Edited 8:35am
Quoting Donadoney
I know a few of us watching this setup. I am visualizing my entry. Does that work? My wife says it does.
I missed your post for this pair (EUR/NZD) , found the pair while doing my own analysis then looked back in the thread to see if anyone had noticed it.

This pair is making me drool.

Monthly - is showing a huge fundamental trend starting in Dec 2006 with TL tests in July 2007 and Oct 2009. The last test being a lovely hammer off the 50. Price 400 pips short of the monthly resistance of 21,000 figure.

Weekly - is currently testing the bottom side of the 20. The trend looks strong with 3 large trending bars dominating the last 7 weeks, buyers motivation is apparent.

Daily - a pair of recent HH and HL confirming a return to the major monthly trend from the 8 month retracement. Price recently tested 21000 figure but the strength of rejection does not look as powerful as the buying pressure. Current price action consolidating over the last 6 days with the 20 and recent support being tested as I type.

Plan - will be to put this at the top of my watch list and wait for PR assuming a good RR. Get long on the train to 21,000 then lighten the load a little and move to BE for an expected wobble. Then hopefully enjoy the remainder of the journey if she passes 21,000, perhaps picking up more passengers as she goes..

The Shorts view - this new trend could just be a retracement of the last 8 month trend, if this is the case another test of the 21000 is likely before reverting down. So the stated plan should give me a profit at least to 21000.


Time will tell..
  • #8,336
  • Dec 9, 2009 7:30am Dec 9, 2009 7:30am
Quoting glyder
Strat,
I posted earlier in the week to say I would like to join the path of learning, and I have registered with Naws.
I have read the thread through as it has progressed, although intermittently at times. In the early days of the thread you suggested...
In the early days of the thread you suggested if readers did not yet know price action, they go to J16 to learn before getting to grips with the path of learning.

Pound, shillings and pence – you read it wrong!
I said to go to J16 to learn the price reversal candles NOT price action. PASR is taught on this thread.

I now understand price action, but still have patience and discipline difficulties on occasion. Quite a few occasions.

A very bold statement there, psd! There are times when I don’t understand price action.

Under what conditions do you have patience and discipline problems – demo or real live trading?

Are you using a PLAN?

I'm now going to read the thread again, whilst keeping up with the current posts, & look forward to my journey.

Good idea – let us know if you find anything interesting!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,337
  • Dec 9, 2009 7:50am Dec 9, 2009 7:50am
Quoting One14
Haven't been posting much, but still here.

This is one of those posts I find worth the price of admission (priceless).

Has anyone experienced what Strat described here? Or...has this post passed you by (or you passed it by)? We should probably see 95% of the posts like this since 95% of trading is Psychological.

I have had a taste (very tiny, but...
I have had a taste (very tiny, but a taste) of what you describe and can see it more clearly now.
In the past, even though I would have read and understood what you wrote, it wouldn't have sunk in as much as it does now (and probably more when I read it again in a few months).

Corbett, unfortunately, no matter how many times we read not to do something, we still go ahead and do it as if to prove it wrong. It is only when we get a “clout round the ‘earole” or money taken from our account that we sit up and take note.

The real test comes after this. Will we learn our lesson?

This stuff is better than TITZ.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,338
  • Dec 9, 2009 7:57am Dec 9, 2009 7:57am
Quoting Donadoney
I know a few of us watching this setup. I am visualizing my entry. Does that work? My wife says it does.
I don’t have this pair.

Why are your last two candles in monochrome and not coloured?

I am visualizing my entry. Does that work? My wife says it does.

Where is this on our train analogy – is this where the train goes into the tunnel?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,339
  • Dec 9, 2009 8:11am Dec 9, 2009 8:11am
Quoting Grimweasel
Hello all!
Thought I'd share my losing gold trade with you.

I took a long off that 'hammer' 2 days ago and was rinsed and became a 'trapped trader' myself!

I recall thinking exactly this at the time and as such set my long stop-buy a little higher than normal (for safety) and was hit by 0.5 of a pip - and then rinsed.#

[font=Arial]As there was no SR level I did consider just leaving it but then I thought about taking every with-trend opportunity the market offered. Looking...
A little disappointed, Danny boy!

After the sustained run and then that last push up in gold, and, especially at these dizzy heights, you should expect a big round of profit taking.

This is the same with any financial instrument – when PRICE gets stretched to its limit, it needs to recover, take a rest and build up a new head of steam for the next onslaught.

Wait for and watch to see what PRICE does at the DSRI demand line rather than jump in during the correction.

I suspect, like Crudecraig, with this being your first “real, live” trade, you were anxious to get some money on the line and had a sudden rush of blood and “looked for” a trade instead of “seeing” a trade.

Now with your 1st “real live” trade under your belt, you can relax and find the next opportunity.

Thanks for sharing your 1st “real live” trade – just by doing this will help you move forward.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,340
  • Dec 9, 2009 8:23am Dec 9, 2009 8:23am
Quoting cliftonarms
Since trading psychology comes up again and again I thought that I would share my method for accepting the market in all her different moods and what she has to offer....
Very good analogy, pub trader!

I’m off to see my psychologist now

And what did she say?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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