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Trade Using VSA (Volume Spread Analysis)

  • #4,261
  • Dec 6, 2009 4:58pm Dec 6, 2009 4:58pm
who thinks eurchf is about to collapse?

i do!!

TP1 @ .50885

TP2 @ .50715
  • #4,262
  • Dec 7, 2009 5:37am Dec 7, 2009 5:37am
GU SHORT

EDIT:
Do not look on this volume as i am not folowing this IBFX volume.

Best,
Tom
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #4,263
  • Dec 7, 2009 5:52am Dec 7, 2009 5:52am
i dont know how the trade played out since i am only referring to your screenshot. shorting here imho is a bad idea. look behind: we saw volume stepping in and the result is a slight turnaround of the price. now we try to go down but the volume compared to the vol on the previous downbars is pretty tiny. see the little trendchannel which developed here. you entered in the middle, so your risk is 50% to the upside and 50% to the downside. we want to reduce our risk...

see the things i have marked o nthe chart. 1= the wide spread downbar indicating potential selling climax. voluem pretty high. bar 2 has even higher volume but compare the progress the bar made ot the previous bar. what do you see? it only came down a few pips. bar 1 made about 4 time more progress to the downsie on LESS volume. so bar 2 must have been big buyorders kicking in. profitaking is reaosnable after we see such wide spread down bars..the question si now, if buy orders continue to kick in. but i wouldnt have gone short here. if you think you need to see you should only look for shorts around the red line to have a little safety. longs preferably at the green line area or after a shakeout which kills the stops below the lows and comes back up.

Quoting tfflyer
GU SHORT

EDIT:
Do not look on this volume as i am not folowing this IBFX volume.

Best,
Tom
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 07.12.png Size: 31 KB
  • #4,264
  • Dec 7, 2009 6:14am Dec 7, 2009 6:14am
Hello Dr.G.,
thank You for Your comments.

Yes i aggree with what You say.

I attach here futures volumes from which i also made desicion to go short - Would You tell the same story here what about IBFX volume said ?
ps
such volume increase on this time on futures is ULTRA HIGH volume


Thank You.

Best,
Tom

Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i dont know how the trade played out since i am only referring to your screenshot. shorting here imho is a bad idea. look behind: we saw volume stepping in and the result is a slight turnaround of the price. now we try to go down but the volume compared to the vol on the previous downbars is pretty tiny. see the little trendchannel which developed here. you entered in the middle, so your risk is 50% to the upside and 50% to the downside. we want to reduce our risk...

see the things i have marked o nthe chart. 1= the wide spread downbar indicating...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6B 12-09 12_7_2009 (10 Min).jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #4,265
  • Dec 7, 2009 6:42am Dec 7, 2009 6:42am
i would say the same here. the bar is a ND, but look what we have behind us...excessive volume. it is always risky to go short against this. it might work but the odds are higher that we might see a change of direction hee- even tough if it only is a little retracement.


Quoting tfflyer
Hello Dr.G.,
thank You for Your comments.

Yes i aggree with what You say.

I attach here futures volumes from which i also made desicion to go short - Would You tell the same story here what about IBFX volume said ?
ps
such volume increase on this time on futures is ULTRA HIGH volume


Thank You.

Best,
Tom
  • #4,266
  • Dec 7, 2009 7:07am Dec 7, 2009 7:07am
Thanks for comments Dr.G. .

Best,
Tom


Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i would say the same here. the bar is a ND, but look what we have behind us...excessive volume. it is always risky to go short against this. it might work but the odds are higher that we might see a change of direction hee- even tough if it only is a little retracement.
  • #4,267
  • Edited 4:57pm Dec 7, 2009 4:09pm | Edited 4:57pm
Today i profited ~ 120 pips.

Lets see if i will loose tomorow all my 120 pips ( i am not counting pips.. but just writing it here in pips )

EDIT:
I see some mistakes in my orders where i should wait or not to take.. but that is after fact for me yet..
But just attached picture how i done today..

Best,
Tom
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 169 KB
  • #4,268
  • Dec 7, 2009 5:02pm Dec 7, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting tfflyer
Today i profited ~ 120 pips.

Lets see if i will loose tomorow all my 120 pips ( i am not counting pips.. but just writing it here in pips )

EDIT:
I see some mistakes in my orders where i should wait or not to take.. but that is after fact for me yet..
But just attached picture how i done today..

Best,
Tom

NEVER try shorting agianst stopping volume that was very clear on the bottom of the chart .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #4,269
  • Dec 7, 2009 5:05pm Dec 7, 2009 5:05pm
Thanks, somehow i think that it was just break of support, but after DR.G post i realized - i made mistake as ussual.. ;]

Thanks !

EDIT :

Sorry, i just saw about which stopping volume You are speaking lol

Till now i didnt realized that is stopping volume

Thanks one more time !

Best,
Tom

Quoting malcolmb14
NEVER try shorting agianst stopping volume that was very clear on the bottom of the chart .
  • #4,270
  • Dec 7, 2009 10:11pm Dec 7, 2009 10:11pm
Hello: I've started to read the thread. Perhaps a TG excerpt from MTM will be useful to someone.

Best Regards
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf master the markets extract.pdf   1.5 MB | 6,198 downloads
  • #4,271
  • Dec 8, 2009 3:07am Dec 8, 2009 3:07am
Hi everyone.

Bacground weak ?..

We will see..

Best,
Tom
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6B 12-09 12_8_2009 (10 Min).jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #4,272
  • Dec 8, 2009 1:46pm Dec 8, 2009 1:46pm
Trade Guider VSA webinar at Infinity Futures

http://www.infinityfutures.com/videos/52709liveVSA.wmv
  • #4,273
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:21pm Dec 8, 2009 5:21pm
tom what kind of stop loss do you use on these trades>?

Quoting tfflyer
Hello Dr.G.,
thank You for Your comments.

Yes i aggree with what You say.

I attach here futures volumes from which i also made desicion to go short - Would You tell the same story here what about IBFX volume said ?
ps
such volume increase on this time on futures is ULTRA HIGH volume


Thank You.

Best,
Tom
Its all in the mind.
  • #4,274
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:18am Dec 9, 2009 1:18am
Just want to say thanx to all the contributors of this thread, i have read through this and the "Learning to trade VSA" thread and finally have a little confidence to post a chart, im a big Malcombe fan because i like larger moves and prefer to Stalk the trade with the full story to back up my decision...

But unfortunately i cant seem to to do this consistently at all, still trying to put it all together an grasp the BACKGROUND info, also i dont see many people talking about timing..

Please let me know what you guys think of this, where would you enter if at all? and what am i NOT seeing?? all comments welcomed

Please excuse my double pic, dont know how to stop this!! :/
Chart 1
GU 4Hr London session

What i think i see

Three red checks
A) the first 2 checks =(Strength coming in on high volume Down Bars) Blue bars.

B) followed by no supply bars on narrow spreads

C) last check = Low volume wide spread down bar, closing on the lows at MML 1/4 level and Daily Pivot S1= test of supply?? are these weak holders?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1260342794

Chart #2
GU 15 min
Several extra high volume down bars = (Strength lurking in the back?)
how would you enter this trade if at all?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1260342841
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2009-12-08 at 10.40.17 PM.png Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2009-12-08 at 11.04.59 PM.jpg Size: 118 KB
  • #4,275
  • Dec 9, 2009 2:07am Dec 9, 2009 2:07am
Quoting Ace
Please let me know what you guys think of this, where would you enter if at all? and what am i NOT seeing?? all comments welcomed
Hi,

Chart 1
A) the first 2 checks =(Strength coming in on high volume Down Bars) Blue bars.
 - this is supply breaking through support on the left, weakness.

B) followed by no supply bars on narrow spreads
- yes, bars show smaller spread; however, three things are missing: first, no strength on the back ground; second, lack of reaction on potential buying; and third, trend is down.

C) last check = Low volume wide spread down bar, closing on the lows at MML 1/4 level and Daily Pivot S1= test of supply?? are these weak holders?
 -the spread is widening showing acceleration. lower volume shows that less it takes less volume to push market lower. I also think that dropping volume is because of time of day.

i am not sure what you mean by 'weak holders'.


Chart #2
Several extra high volume down bars = (Strength lurking in the back?)
how would you enter this trade if at all?
- market is breaking through support on good volume - weakness.
the pink volume bar potential buying but all these buyers had to liquidate on the next bar. this is supply absorbing demand.

from my point of view, on all these examples it is too late to sell and there is no buying entry .

Hope this helps.

Den
  • #4,276
  • Dec 9, 2009 3:22am Dec 9, 2009 3:22am
Quoting Ace
Just want to say thanx to all the contributors of this thread, i have read through this and the "Learning to trade VSA" thread and finally have a little confidence ...
Hello Ace

Could you please post sinewave with SR indicator, please?

Thank you
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #4,277
  • Dec 9, 2009 3:54am Dec 9, 2009 3:54am
So i went ahead and entered on the 15 min (looked like stopping Volume)
followed by a NO supply pin bar
checks marks entry

booked 1/2 at POC bottom, another 1/4 at POC top and move stop to breakeven
TP is Cycle test around 6404
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2009-12-09 at 1.52.17 AM.png Size: 63 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2009-12-09 at 1.47.46 AM.png Size: 54 KB
  • #4,278
  • Dec 9, 2009 3:57am Dec 9, 2009 3:57am
here you go

Quoting mima
Hello Ace

Could you please post sinewave with SR indicator, please?

Thank you
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Sinewave with S&R.mq4   6 KB | 1,080 downloads
  • #4,279
  • Dec 9, 2009 4:03am Dec 9, 2009 4:03am
Quoting denbur
Hi,

Chart 1
A) the first 2 checks =(Strength coming in on high volume Down Bars) Blue bars.
 - this is supply breaking through support on the left, weakness.

B) followed by no supply bars on narrow spreads
- yes, bars show smaller spread; however, three things are missing: first, no strength on the back ground; second, lack of reaction on potential buying; and third, trend is down.

[b] C) last check = Low volume wide spread down bar, closing on the lows at MML 1/4 level and Daily Pivot S1= test of supply?? are these...
Thank you sir, feels good to actually hear from someone else
  • #4,280
  • Dec 9, 2009 4:12am Dec 9, 2009 4:12am
Hey Den,

i marked the bar which i tough is strenght. ( its yesterday G/U )

But there was no real following - so we can assume that this is weakness ?

And if so, in which place we start to look for shorts when STRENGHT fails ?

Thanks.

Best,
Tom
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6B 12-09 12_9_2009 (10 Min).jpg Size: 79 KB
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