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  • #8,301
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:52pm Dec 7, 2009 11:52pm
Quoting strat
Now what would a U - Boat commander do faced with a situation like this?
I looked at it from another point of view. It just highlights the major confluence in this area (65.00). I've been moving with this pair, mark step, so you could imagine how many torpedoes I shot at her when she showed up on my periscope.
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  • #8,302
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:09am Dec 8, 2009 10:09am
Quoting strat
For those new on The Path, forget about entering late (entering trades part way through the cycle.)...
Hey - Can anyone point me in the right direction on where to find some information about time cycles? I tried answering the questions below. I know from the thread Strat doesn't use EW, or GANN.

Where do you know where YOU are in the cycle?

You check the boss to see if you are near major SR or historical highs and lows.

Where do you know where PRICE is in the cycle?

You look for SR on the boss if you trade the worker.

Which cycle?

The time frame above the one you are trading.
  • #8,303
  • Edited 10:32am Dec 8, 2009 10:16am | Edited 10:32am
I was going to ask the following question in regards to using F12 as a studying tool:

When going day by day using F12, is it better to to spend minimal time on each candle and just watch the bars go by or would it be more beneficial to analyze each candle and try to predict what happens next?


I had decided that I would continue to re-read for 1 week before I asked the question and just see what came to me. 2 days into it I have the answer:
It is better to analyze each candle. Yes there is benefit to just watching the bars go by because you see the pattern and not just the candles, BUT by analyzing each candle you effectively get to apply the Strat method on every bar as soon as you are ready rather than having to wait 24 hours on a current chart.

What clued me in was the various posts where Strat discusses what the buyers and sellers are doing on a given bar and how that bar relates to the MAs. For those as slow to pick it up as I am...what that means is:

It's clear Strat feels analyzing each bar is important or he wouldn't take the time he does to go into great detail on those rare posts where he provides the anatomy of a few trades. Those post are your template for bar analysis. At least it's my template.
-m
  • #8,304
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:21am Dec 8, 2009 10:21am
Quoting pipfx
Hey - Can anyone point me in the right direction on where to find some information about time cycles? I tried answering the questions below. I know from the thread Strat doesn't use EW, or GANN.
I don't believe the answer is as complicated as it appears. Cycle to me on this thread is simply Up or Down.

Is it between swings? Yes = no trade = not at SR

Is it a price reversal bar at SR? Yes = beginning/end of cycle

That's how I interpreted it anyway. Please treat this as my opinion and not gospel.
-m
  • #8,305
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:33am Dec 8, 2009 10:33am
Quoting pipfx
Hey - Can anyone point me in the right direction on where to find some information about time cycles? I tried answering the questions below. I know from the thread Strat doesn't use EW, or GANN.

Where do you know where YOU are in the cycle?

You check the boss to see if you are near major SR or historical highs and lows.

Where do you know where PRICE is in the cycle?

You look for SR on the boss if you trade the worker.[b]

Which cycle?

The time frame above the one you are...
I know from the thread Strat doesn't use EW, or GANN.

You only know what you don’t know then!

I do not use EW or GANN in teaching basic PASR on this thread. However, I use elements of EW and GANN, to some degree, in my other methods, strategies and techniques.

Why do you want to mess with time cycles? PASR trading will give you everything you need to be a very successful trader. Knowing about time cycles “MAY” improve your skills about 5%.

Invest your time and energy on those components of trading which give the biggest ROI:

Basic PASR
Trading psychology

Anything else is time wasted.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,306
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:39am Dec 8, 2009 10:39am
Quoting mstandifer
I was going to ask the following question in regards to using F12 as a studying tool:

When going day by day using F12, is it better to to spend minimal time on each candle and just watch the bars go by or would it be more beneficial to analyze each candle and try to predict what happens next?


I had decided that I would continue to re-read for 1 week before I asked the question and just see what came to me....
I took it for granted that each student would study each bar in detail rather than watch the bars go by until the sun don't shine. Just watching bars fly by without analysis will not advance your trading skills. Always make the most of history.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,307
  • Dec 8, 2009 12:19pm Dec 8, 2009 12:19pm
Quoting strat
I took it for granted that each student would study each bar in detail rather than watch the bars go by until the sun don't shine. Just watching bars fly by without analysis will not advance your trading skills. Always make the most of history.
Thank you, sir.

I find it beneficial to make periodic comments on my realizations for the simple fact that coming into this thread I brought more than a few bad habits with me and voicing those allows me to be shown the correct method.

A good example being the way I had used strategy tester before coming to this thread. I would enlarge the bars, put strategy tester on visual and ramp up the speed. I would watch the chart (as Strat just said) until the sun don't shine. My thinking was, if I could see enough of this in action surely it would start to make sense. Seriously, I would watch that thing for hours and the faster the better.

Once I saw Strat's post recommending F12, I started using it rather than auto but but I had to slow down because I just couldn't apply what I had learned to the bars in time. I would go through the bars, spending about 3 seconds or so on each one. I would spend more time on bars at SR but overall still too fast.

Flash forward some. Now that I'm on my second time through the thread, and I better understand what I'm reading, some posts spark thoughts that didn't the first time around. Namely WHY F12 will help you. I won't bore you with the others for now

If you've read the thread through from beginning to end, as arduous a journey as it was, I recommend you read it again, just as I am, simply because as your understanding of a subject increases, the more you will learn from a single topic that perhaps you missed the first time around. At the very least go to the index and read those posts; you'll find it worth your time.
-m
  • #8,308
  • Dec 8, 2009 1:05pm Dec 8, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi All,

I don't know but something doesn't smell right.
Patience has payoff. One thing I know for sure, Blackeagle is smiling right now and so is Strat.
  • #8,309
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:43pm Dec 8, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting mstandifer
Thank you, sir....
NO, Marcus, THANK YOU!

I hope our serious students take your advice - all of it - especially a second and third read of the thread.

As I have said many times, my style of teaching is NOT to hand everything over on a silver platter. To me this is no better than giving signals, or using the well known analogy, giving a fish.

My style is to just give enough or drop subtle hints and sometimes to say the complete opposite to provoke and instill thought and discussion with the student.

I write many of my posts in such a manner that the most important thing, sometimes, is not what is written, but that which is missing, which should be realised AFTER reading and UNDERSTANDING - reading between the lines.

This is why it is so important to read and UNDERSTAND each and every post - even the stupid ones!

As you have found out, a second and third read will reveal more each time you read it.

This then is my way of teaching students to fish.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,310
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:50pm Dec 8, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting patrick25
Patience has payoff. One thing I know for sure, Blackeagle is smiling right now and so is Strat.
And it will for all those students who have the PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE to stick with the thread and the rules.

For those who get off at the 1st Station or go on other tracks...........well we know where they end up.

PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE always, ALWAYS pays off.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,311
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:59pm Dec 8, 2009 2:59pm
Quoting strat
Now what would a U - Boat commander do faced with a situation like this?
#8281

Long time readers should have "read into" this post and realised there were a whole fleet of U-Boats out there.

As I have done many times when they get together as a "Fleet", I bombed and torpedoed the whole Fleet, even this time including their Flagship (sorry Alexandra!).

It pays to be a Rebel!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,312
  • Dec 8, 2009 3:03pm Dec 8, 2009 3:03pm
Quoting strat
The needlework and sewing class girls will get lots of pricks tonight if they are not careful with these bars!
#8282

So how many got pricked last night?

They must be bleeding pretty bad by now!

This is what happens when you go to needlework and sewing classes and play with the Muppets and Puppets.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,313
  • Dec 8, 2009 4:21pm Dec 8, 2009 4:21pm
Quoting patrick25
Patience has payoff. One thing I know for sure, Blackeagle is smiling right now and so is Strat.
Strat warned everyone "JUST" before the move, of course to those who know how to read and a couple of good/dedicated students already caught the fish(es), it seems.
  • #8,314
  • Dec 8, 2009 4:23pm Dec 8, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Strat warned everyone "JUST" before the move, of course to those who know how to read and a couple of good/dedicated students already caught the fish(es), it seems.
The submarine comment was funny! lol
  • #8,315
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:03pm Dec 8, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting calderone
The submarine comment was funny! lol
and VERY profitable!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,316
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:04pm Dec 8, 2009 5:04pm
I received a couple of emails over the week-end, one on being frustrated at giving up profits and the other on being frustrated with losing.

Here is how I replied.

These are both symptoms of traders not at peace with themselves or in control of their emotions.

Both revolve around our greed and fear emotions.

Let’s look at giving up profits:

Being in profit on a trade elates most new traders as the excitement of finally winning overcomes them. This happens with each profitable trade until one day the excitement turns to frustration as a 500 + pip trade turns into a 350 pip profit.

When this happens, your GREED gremlin is shouting like crazy in your head. As far as “he” is concerned, “he” has just “lost” 150 pips. This happens all the time with new traders. You have to get beyond this and not let the GREED gremlin get a look in.

Easier said than done but it's the head games again which we have to control.

Getting in profit is the easy bit. Silencing the little man, the demons and gremlins and the man in the mirror is the hard bit.

The first step to do this is:

ACCEPT ALL WINNING TRADES

Whether your profit is 1 pip or 2,389 pips, it is ALL THE SAME. A winning trade is a winning trade is a winning trade etc.

Any winning trade is BETTER than a losing trade.

A break even trade is BETTER than a losing trade.

So, be grateful that you HAVE a winning trade.

When you can ACCEPT this, you will accumulate lots and lots of winning trades – so much so that you become blasé about them.

In other words, winning trades are YOUR ROUTINE.

When you get into the routine of winning trades, you DO NOT CARE how many pips you leave on the table. You DO NOT CARE because you KNOW your next trade will be another winning trade and will more than make up for whatever was left behind.

This is the huge problem I have with all these threads where all the posters post how many pips they made. When I see someone posting a pip haul, I KNOW they are not used to winning and are therefore just on their ego merry go round.

When something is routine, you don’t tell the world about it – nobody cares and neither do you. We tell the world about the unusual things that happen – things that don’t happen everyday.

When you can feel that it is not important to tell (brag) anyone, not even your spouse, about your winning trades, THEN you know you ARE IN THE ROUTINE OF WINNING.

When this happens, you will be surprised how nonchalant you become over your pip haul.

No matter how big or small the pip haul, consistency of winning will make sure we are successful and profitable.

Now for the losing trades:

The losing trades are different yet THE SAME as the above.

Our ego, our desire to win, our need to always be winners makes it hard for us to lose.

Losing trades are the last thing we want – BUT, it is all part of doing business in forex and we HAVE to ACCEPT that at some point or other, we will have losing trades.

No matter how good our technical analysis skills, our funny mental skills or our forecasting clairvoyance, the Market will react to something unknown to us, turn on us and take our SL out.

Most new traders feel bad when they get a losing trade – even ONE losing trade – they think that if they have a perfect system/method/strategy they should always have winners.

Then most new traders and particularly those looking for the Holy Grail, lose faith and start looking for other systems/methods/strategies.

As long as you remember the # 1 rule in trading and keeping your losses smaller than your winners, this game of probabilities and statistics will always ensure you are successful and profitable in the end.

Applying this to a 50/50 coin toss will always make you successful!

When you feel bad over a losing trade, your FEAR demon is running your show! Either that, or you are trading with scared money (under funded or inadequately funded account).

So again, ACCEPT losing trades as the cost of doing business in forex.

ENJOY your losing trades because if you have a good, sound, proven system/method/strategy such as PASR trading, the winning trades are just around the corner.

Do NOT brood over a losing trade. It’s gone. Its history. Take it on the chin. Get over it and move on to the next OPPORTUNITY.

When you let the FEAR demon loose, he will drive you crazy with what you did wrong, what you should have done, if you had done this etc, etc. Do NOT let him in to your head. Just move on.

There are times when, for whatever reason, we enter into a losing cycle. This happens to all of us. When this happens either 1) know WHEN to walk away and stop trading or 2) Have a Maximum Loss Account % - when this is hit, stop trading until the Monday of the new week.

Never fight the losing cycle as it ALWAYS ends in a vortex of losses resulting in wiped out accounts. (you weren’t listening were you Mr. M5 losing trader).

There is more to say on these but both revolve around YOU being in CONTROL – in other words, being in control of that which does 95% of the financial damage in our trading.

And yes, there are occasions when I get visits by these horrible little men!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,317
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:42pm Dec 8, 2009 5:42pm
Strat,
I posted earlier in the week to say I would like to join the path of learning, and I have registered with Naws.
I have read the thread through as it has progressed, although intermittently at times. In the early days of the thread you suggested if readers did not yet know price action, they go to J16 to learn before getting to grips with the path of learning.
That is what I have been doing in the meantime, and I found J16 to be a great thread with extremely helpful members.
I now understand price action, but still have patience and discipline difficulties on occasion. Quite a few occasions.
I'd like to learn to trade longer term and stress free, and having read much of the thread already I know this is definitely the place to learn. I like your method of teaching.
I will chip in when I have something to offer, and ask questions if I need to, unfortunately there may be times when you do not hear from me - a full time job and young family limit my trading / learning time...hence my aim of reducing screen time.
I'm now going to read the thread again, whilst keeping up with the current posts, & look forward to my journey.
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #8,318
  • Edited 6:21pm Dec 8, 2009 5:55pm | Edited 6:21pm
Quoting strat
#8281

Long time readers should have "read into" this post and realised there were a whole fleet of U-Boats out there.

As I have done many times when they get together as a "Fleet", I bombed and torpedoed the whole Fleet, even this time including their Flagship (sorry Alexandra!).

It pays to be a Rebel!

LOL - We will see where the fleet is at the end of the voyage. Who won that war anyway?

Did anyone expect anything less than rough seas? It's a boat, not a missile!

Hopefully profits were booked and readers are waiting until the PA respects a big fat line. Strat notes to himself that price remains inside Friday's weekly range across the fleet.....was someone going to note that? Perhaps the U-boat commader's torpedo is not strong enough??
  • #8,319
  • Dec 8, 2009 7:26pm Dec 8, 2009 7:26pm
To all the new members that sent me your info to get registered, please be patient if you have not yet been added to the member list. I came down with the flu last week and I am currently very busy with exams, I will have you guys registered at the end of the week. I will also catch up with the thread and get back to trading after this week.
  • #8,320
  • Dec 8, 2009 7:40pm Dec 8, 2009 7:40pm
Quoting Alexandra
... Who won that war anyway?
Always Dr. Joe. He was in command, is still in command and will be in the future.
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