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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,321
  • Dec 6, 2009 11:35am Dec 6, 2009 11:35am
Quoting Trader_X
thomknight...thank you for your post and your chart and thank you for a straight answer...i just dont think anyone else on this thread can handle any more riddles...but i do have a question what would be your next fib on the charts you posted...thanks again!
I don't think there is necessarily a 'next fib.' Sure, there is one that will work, but it will be one of many possibilities. Thom has gotten closer to the real truth publicly than anyone ever has in the history of this thread. The problem is, as he said, even if he spells out for you what is going on with Skunny fibs (and he did) many of you won't get it. It's not because you are stupid, you just need to spend time on the charts and think about whats going on. All the advanced fib stuff is not something you will master in a day, Skunny said that himself.

Most traders dismiss fibs as nonsense, when some of us know the real edge that exists in them. If everyone knew exactly how fibs worked, and where price was going, I don't think they could be traded anymore. If some of this stuff became common knowledge, brokers/dealers would simply have to manipulate their data to shut the party down. Also, it makes no sense to bring out the big guns in a place like forex factory, because to be a successful trader you depend on the losers to grow your account. If there are no more losers then there are no winners. Nobody would be stupid enough to open a trade. Price would just go sideways, and we'd probably have some sort of fixed price system.

While fibs do work in amazing ways, to me they are still quite illogical. After almost 3 years now of studying of fibs, I cannot say why they should work time after time. Trading is so absolutely complex when broken into it's individual parts, every swing is different than the last in many ways. And quite humorously, MT4 doesn't even display real pricing, just an average price. If spreads never changed it wouldn't be that big of a deal, but that's not the case.

If you think that you can come to a place like FF and find a system that will make you easy money, you're nuts. It won't happen. If it does, then you will have a "system suicide" on your hands.

One more thing..Even Skunny fibs fail sometimes. You could make the case that the fib didn't fail but "switched," but if you were in a trade and it "switched around" on you, then you still have a loss on your hands. So to say that you can trade and never lose is seriously foolish.

If someone claims they never lose, ask to see their statement. I guarantee they will never show it to you.
  • #4,322
  • Dec 6, 2009 4:46pm Dec 6, 2009 4:46pm
Quoting Trader_X
its all good misterdaz...we knew what you meant....let me ask you a question whats your take on thomknights charts???
Hi everyone. TraderX, I haven't had much chance to look at his stuff yet. I had a quick scan and initially my eyes rolled back in my head then I got a nose bleed, I thought "is this Skunny in disguise"! Wow.

In all seriousness, NICE WORK! thomknight, you have spent a lot of time and made a great effort with your posts, I will make sure I spend some time on them.

I think ScottyB is right also (nice to see he is still around) Skunnys fibs fail somtimes, they may be right but you can draw them wrong! "To say that you can trade and never lose is seriously foolish." Well said Scotty. For me, the first part of learning to trade was to accept losers, they're gonna happen so don't beat yourself up over it. I'd be happy with 50% winners with a 2 to 1 risk reward ratio, you work it out.

Anyway I'm gonna do what I said and have a look at thom's post.

Bye for now.

Darren.
Keep smiling
  • #4,323
  • Dec 6, 2009 5:38pm Dec 6, 2009 5:38pm
I think I see where thomknight is coming from but I'm sure he will correct me if I am wrong. He only uses or he pointed out that Skunny recommended only using the 138% ext's either end, yes agreed.

You need to practice drawing these yourself, yes as per Skunny advice. He also gave a hint about 61.8% inner fib failures, similar to what I mentioned earlier about traditional fib trading. If we retrace back beyond 61.8% inner fib then we are not going back in that direction, the original move was weak. To put that more clearly, if we were heading North then price turns South and keeps heading South beyond the 61.8% then get your parachutes out, we're going down boys!

Also, and I could be wrong about this but when you pull a fib try to fit in price action that perfectly hits the 61.8% in the process. Have a look at my chart below, I made it fit to the first blue circle 61.8%, then price came back and respected that line and I probably would have gambled a long there as previously buyers had entered the market at this price (I'm a liar really, I was in bed asleep). Third hit and bam, down we go. This was non farm payroll though, if you traded through that then you want a medal of honour. What a fantastic number for you boys though, good to see.

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Night chaps.
Keep smiling
  • #4,324
  • Dec 6, 2009 6:02pm Dec 6, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting Scotty B
I don't think there is necessarily a 'next fib.' Sure, there is one that will work, but it will be one of many possibilities. Thom has gotten closer to the real truth publicly than anyone ever has in the history of this thread. The problem is, as he said, even if he spells out for you what is going on with Skunny fibs (and he did) many of you won't get it. It's not because you are stupid, you just need to spend time on the charts and think about whats going on. All the advanced fib stuff is not something you will master in a day, Skunny said that...
The infamous Scotty B How are you doing I have read your posts and they are awesome. I like what you said except I am going to have to disagree because I think its very kind of Thomknight to help us get closer to the answer it just seems like your saying for those of you who figured everything out you should keep it to yourself and not tell anyone. Isnt that what we are here for to give each other our perspective and get this thing going? If skunny didnt want us to help eachother why would he even bother posting. I think you are right about skunny fibs failing sometimes so it shouldnt matter if we trade similar or not. Remember what skunny said the market is predetermined. I have read this thread so many times and it made a lot of things click and that is the reason I started posting here and asking people for theyre thoughts because recently thyings have stopped clicking. I have become a lot more successful as a trader but I have this obsession to get to the bottom of this. With that said I hope I didnt offend anyones opinion and I hope you all will keep helping us all to figure this thing out and please post anything in mind and keep posting them screen shoots lol. Oh yeah one more thing and this is just a what if so bear with me....what if skunny figured out how to trade fibs very very well but sometimes he lost trades and that is why he shared it with us so we could help him figure out why the losers were losers and maybe how to avoid them just a thought...
  • #4,325
  • Dec 7, 2009 8:57pm Dec 7, 2009 8:57pm
What might you chaps be looking at and why? I think just post charts... and logically explain why that makes sense?

GLGT

TK

and no... it is quite doubtful Skunny lost trades...unless he was guessing ahead of the fib...which we all do. Perhaps.. work from a stance that Skunny was right and go from there.
  • #4,326
  • Edited 10:54pm Dec 7, 2009 10:50pm | Edited 10:54pm
Thom Knight,
Thanks for your posts. Here's what I'm looking at. Breached of the 0 or 100 line , and pullback to the 38.2 - 61.8 fibs , before heading for the 138.2 extension.( if it doesn't head there first ).
Am I on the right track ?

Cheers
SK
Attached Image
  • #4,327
  • Dec 8, 2009 3:14am Dec 8, 2009 3:14am
Quoting skong
Thom Knight,
Thanks for your posts. Here's what I'm looking at. Breached of the 0 or 100 line , and pullback to the 38.2 - 61.8 fibs , before heading for the 138.2 extension.( if it doesn't head there first ).
Am I on the right track ?

Cheers
SK
I like what I see!!! Could you please share why you fibbed where you did. Straight to the target you are awesome.
  • #4,328
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:36am Dec 8, 2009 5:36am
skong...nice chart ..yes like dan id like to know why you chose that area to fib


thomknight...could you please explain what is the first step...what is the first thing you look for?
  • #4,329
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:00am Dec 8, 2009 6:00am
Here's my reason for that fib but sad to say, I still have not figured out how to correctly walk the fibs. Hoping TK or you guys can point me in the right direction.

Cheers fellas
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  • #4,330
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:49am Dec 8, 2009 6:49am
LOL, Can't believe this thread is becoming active again.

I guess there are some diehards in here that see value in this thread as well as others that have not.

Isn't a fib always correct until you place it in the wrong area??
  • #4,331
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:02am Dec 8, 2009 10:02am
The charts you posted are awesome and have given me some answers that I have been looking for for awhile!
  • #4,332
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:10pm Dec 8, 2009 6:10pm


Fib on.
  • #4,333
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:35pm Dec 8, 2009 6:35pm
thanks skong for the explanation..we need as much of this kind of info as possible.

grkbear.....its good to see you post ...welcome back..its ironic that you posted because i was just reading over some of your old post and i think you could really bring some insight back into this thread...question ??? hows your trading been since you were last on this forum??
  • #4,334
  • Dec 8, 2009 9:22pm Dec 8, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting skong
Here's my reason for that fib but sad to say, I still have not figured out how to correctly walk the fibs. Hoping TK or you guys can point me in the right direction.

Cheers fellas
Sorry to just burst in,my main strategy is based on fibs.
You can use fibs for many purposes.
Basically when you apply fibs ,look to encompass the whole wave of that particular move. You can move the fibs around on different waves.
The way I see them is to establish possible levels of resist(support) of a move and where the mkt. may go next.
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  • #4,335
  • Dec 8, 2009 9:42pm Dec 8, 2009 9:42pm
Quoting skong
Thom Knight,
Thanks for your posts. Here's what I'm looking at. Breached of the 0 or 100 line , and pullback to the 38.2 - 61.8 fibs , before heading for the 138.2 extension.( if it doesn't head there first ).
Am I on the right track ?

Cheers
SK
G'day

Obviously perfect. The fib set up and had you looking for a short a long would have been bizarre to say the least.. Target to the base to the trigger and the reject was pitch perfect. When you fib sets up properly you know it is right. You know it is placed properly when it works. Well played.

One does not need to set up multiple fibs and track everything if you are patient.

TK
  • #4,336
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:04pm Dec 8, 2009 10:04pm
Quoting skong
Here's my reason for that fib but sad to say, I still have not figured out how to correctly walk the fibs. Hoping TK or you guys can point me in the right direction.

Cheers fellas
I like your charts. I will post an alternate chart. I think it is important on your chart #1. It triggered..but the fib was rubbish until it confirmed off of the 50 line. I would not have taken it until the 50 confirmed then pierce.

Chart # 2. Rubbish again until it failed the 50 then pierced.

Rubbish means rubbish for trading. Tracking is just fine.

In swing fibbing, you can fib that way to be sure , but you have to wait and see it work or at least I would.

Same area, but with manipulating the fib.


the 61.8 trend property of the fib I mentioned in concert with Skunny sr breakout theory. This fib worked twice and you may have taken it again off of the reject of the upper fib line break. If you move the chart 61.8 to the last push it yields a to the tick hit which as Skunny says.. is a good place to look short.

TK
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  • #4,337
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:17pm Dec 8, 2009 10:17pm
Mates,

If anyone else cares to toss a chart into the ring. This is a learning thread. No cares and as my old man always said if you aren't making mistakes you are not learning.


TK
  • #4,338
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:48pm Dec 8, 2009 10:48pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Mates,

If anyone else cares to toss a chart into the ring. This is a learning thread. No cares and as my old man always said if you aren't making mistakes you are not learning.


TK
I sure am glad we have you here ThomKnight you seem to understand this very well and seem very confident. Here is the way I see it and fibbed it. I shorted from the 76.4 as you can see. I am risking 10 npips to make 50 so the R and R is looking right. [email protected] [email protected]
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  • #4,339
  • Dec 8, 2009 11:13pm Dec 8, 2009 11:13pm
Quoting ak47dan2004
I sure am glad we have you here ThomKnight you seem to understand this very well and seem very confident. Here is the way I see it and fibbed it. I shorted from the 76.4 as you can see. I am risking 10 npips to make 50 so the R and R is looking right. [email protected] [email protected]
What are npips? Nanos? I don't know how to use the 76.4. Best of luck on your short though. Didnt really see much reason to. If I may be so bold you appear to be gambling. No offense mate we have all done it and still do when the fancy strakes..., but perhaps you could let me know your logic?


TK.
  • #4,340
  • Dec 8, 2009 11:39pm Dec 8, 2009 11:39pm
Quoting ThomKnight
What are npips? Nanos? I don't know how to use the 76.4. Best of luck on your short though. Didnt really see much reason to. If I may be so bold you appear to be gambling. No offense mate we have all done it and still do when the fancy strakes..., but perhaps you could let me know your logic?


TK.
I thought I was fibbing like skunny but I guess not. I have read this thread again and again and what I am getting is that we fib a wasve and put an order at the 61.8 fib but sometimes it goes a bit higher and I use the 76.4. Could you explain to me why yo fibbed where you did. WOW this is a real Bad aha momment for me I have been going about this completely wrong then. Please shed some light I guess I just dont get it. I was honestly hoping I was getting the hang of this but that seems to be a no.
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