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AUD/USD

  • #10,961
  • Dec 7, 2009 2:55am Dec 7, 2009 2:55am
Quoting gimmie
well thanks jesus, thats make sense
meaning that im not that stupid went short at .9060 hahaha (stil stupid move i think)
Same here. I got excited when my trading plan was going perfectly. took profits at .9075 and saw it kept droping and went short again at .9060
  • #10,962
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:15am Dec 7, 2009 3:15am
Quoting amyc
weekly move down completed. if we finish the ny session above 9084 it will be back up to 94 this week
u r making a call ,, based or what ,, assumtions or analysis or fundmentals or what ??
plz guys i like when i see someone makin a call to explain it with fundmentals or tech analysis ,,, this forum is not for assumtions ,,, i m not wirred about me , i m worried about nobs that might follow ur call

i agree we saint for posting blind calls but i just dont agree with using aggressive language to address ppl like he did ,,
peace everyone
  • #10,963
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:21am Dec 7, 2009 3:21am
Quoting BobbyBob
Same here. I got excited when my trading plan was going perfectly. took profits at .9075 and saw it kept droping and went short again at .9060
I think there is more downside yet. so dont be in a hurry to close that short. You can hedge it if you want with another pair
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,964
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:26am Dec 7, 2009 3:26am
Quoting kimd
I wish! That would help the short I took a while ago on AUD, thinking TP at 9066. Gold 4 hour chart looks pretty bearish to me, could be in for a whoppin drop.

Now if I could learn to post those charts.

My tp was hit at 66 Hope this chart comes out okay
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  • #10,965
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:34am Dec 7, 2009 3:34am
G'day traders,

Well, I have started to build my longs. Tell me what has changed fundamentally in Australia for its dollar to fall to 87-88 levels as some of the traders have predicted here?

Agree US posted a great job result but don't be fooled by that number because they are NOT ALL full-time jobs. Those numbers WERE NOT seasonally adjusted numbers. Only if we see sustained increase in employment numbers, we can think of Fed raising the interest rates.

Say even if the Fed raises their interest rates, what will happen in Australia? Is Mr. Glenn going to reduce the rate hike? No, he will keep on increasing the rates so the NETT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INTEREST RATES OF US AND AUSTRALIA WILL remain the same, if not increase in 2010.

So that means, US investors will still prefer to invest in Australian markets and so the old story of interest rate differential will continue and so will this uptrend, IMHO.

2 pips.
  • #10,966
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:42am Dec 7, 2009 3:42am
thats what i can see for now ,, max rebound is 9125 or it shall go down from here breakin the recent low
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  • #10,967
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:43am Dec 7, 2009 3:43am
I agree Puks to some extend. The fundamentals behind the AUD hasn't changed.But there are other factors in play here. It's nearing the end of the year and profits are taken and the come up from behind and bite you US Dollar strength.

I'm going to sit out for a while until I get a clearer picture as I see from my charts I posted it may hit 8900 (support level) before the bounce back up.


Who knows though?
  • #10,968
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:45am Dec 7, 2009 3:45am
[quote=puks;3286433]G'day traders,

Well, I have started to build my longs. Tell me what has changed fundamentally in Australia for its dollar to fall to 87-88 levels as some of the traders have predicted here?

I agree with you there. But, dont forget that one of the reasons the AUD is where it is is because of the Gold prices. And the reason gold has gone up is a security measure for peoples lack of confidence in the USD. Once that confidence is restored ( or even a hint of it) gold will get a battering and hence AUD...... imho
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,969
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:51am Dec 7, 2009 3:51am
I think that's the best thing to do. I prefer not to trade on days following a big break. Anything can happen - up and down too. It's better to trade situations that build up for a longer time.

Quoting kimd
I'm going to sit out for a while until I get a clearer picture as I see from my charts I posted it may hit 8900 (support level) before the bounce back up.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #10,970
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:52am Dec 7, 2009 3:52am
Quoting Jesus4748
thats what i can see for now ,, max rebound is 9125 or it shall go down from here breakin the recent low
i think it migh stop for an ABC correction around 8950 or 90

to puks ,, i have one answer for u ,, u r talkin about fundmentals and not lookin to the charts ,,, u r sayin everything is just perfect for the AUD to up trend
then
why did the AUD break the MULTI Daily uptrend
and why did it show a divergance that it didnt show since march
and why did it made a head and shoulders on the daily chart
why it didnt just continue as before sailing high if everything is ok
a daily trend line has been broken with head and shoulders and rsi and multi indicators divergance ,, that should be considered as well ,,
i m not saying it ll go down to wahetevr ,, cause i do analysis on hourly and daily basis and i like to see what the market is doing and analysis it before i decide on a trade but when i read ur post ,, if i didnt look at the chart i would have thought everything is ok like before

another thing ,,, remmeber when the oil reached 150$ , how long did it stay there ,, it went down in a blink of a month , the gold may explode at anytime too cause its soooooooooooooooooooooo overpriced , and if this happenes ,,, then ,, regardless of the interest rates and all this things ,,, USD will have big strenght that will put things back in its normal levels and push the rish down
  • #10,971
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:03am Dec 7, 2009 4:03am
Hm, these are exciting subjects really. I think I misunderstood some basic concept, I thought that gold costs so much because there were buyers for it (India, etc), and if there are enough buyers then it cannot be overpriced, can it.

What do you mean "back to normal levels"? What is normal if not what it's current price? My confidence has just collapsed.

thanks

Quoting Jesus4748
the gold may explode at anytime too cause its soooooooooooooooooooooo overpriced , and if this happenes ,,, then ,, regardless of the interest rates and all this things ,,, USD will have big strenght that will put things back in its normal levels and push the rish down
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #10,972
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:16am Dec 7, 2009 4:16am
Quoting spekitox
Hm, these are exciting subjects really. I think I misunderstood some basic concept, I thought that gold costs so much because there were buyers for it (India, etc), and if there are enough buyers then it cannot be overpriced, can it.

What do you mean "back to normal levels"? What is normal if not what it's current price? My confidence has just collapsed.

thanks
u cant build a concept on that if there is buyers then its the good normal price ,, oil had buyers when it was 150 dollar last year but it collapsed to 35 dollars ,, from 150-35 thats huge collapse
when i talk about normal price i look to the gold history and i see that the normal price is around 800-900-1000 but not 1250 ,
just bring up the chart for the oil and see what happend last year ,, the collapse ended at 35 in last march ,, the look to the chart will scare u

look at the gold price last december ,, its 600 dollars ,,, and now its 1225 ,, more than double ,, is that normal that any things , any currency , any metal double its price and stays there ,,specially when its at ( HISTORICAL WORLD RECORD )
  • #10,973
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:22am Dec 7, 2009 4:22am
AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD has formed a short term cycle top at 0.9321 level on 4-hour chart. Another fall towards 0.8946 previous low would more likely be seen in next several days. Key resistance is at 0.9321, only rise above this level could trigger a major rise targeting 0.9500 area.
  • #10,974
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:25am Dec 7, 2009 4:25am
[quote=tradoholic;3286459]
Quoting puks
G'day traders,

Well, I have started to build my longs. Tell me what has changed fundamentally in Australia for its dollar to fall to 87-88 levels as some of the traders have predicted here?

I agree with you there. But, dont forget that one of the reasons the AUD is where it is is because of the Gold prices. And the reason gold has gone up is a security measure for peoples lack of confidence in the USD. Once that confidence is restored ( or even a hint of it) gold will get a battering and hence AUD...... imho
Hi mate,

AUD is rising NOT because gold is rising. Agree there is a co-relation between AUD and Gold prices but dont think AUD is rising on back of gold prices. Gold is a hedge against inflation because when Fed is pumping US with Gazzillions of dollars, an investor needs to be hedged, if all of a sudden inflation goes through the roof.

I would say there is a co-relation of "trend' between AUD and GOLD but the same is true for any currency against the USD because the current price is part of US$ weakness.

Hope that helps.

AUD would have hit parity but then we got into that GFC, etc and rest is the history.
  • #10,975
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:25am Dec 7, 2009 4:25am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting Amirforex
Look Friend It Will Fall Even More Than U Think ( 0.8764 ) , But Not B4 Touching 0.93 Area Again.
Good Luck !
i dont know where you get all your numbers from ... i am guessing Disneyland ... those numbers that you've mentioned (including your entry point) doesnt make any sense ... so when you say 9300 .. there is no reason for it to bounce back from 9300 cuz if it gets there it will go above and reach 9400 again or 9500 ...

AUD is bearish this week ...
  • #10,976
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:26am Dec 7, 2009 4:26am
Thanks Jesus, I looked at gold and it really scared the bejesus out of me.
Anyways we might see more historical world records - price of food, price of energy, price of fresh water /even if it is not yet traded on an exchange as far as I know/

God it's a funny feeling to be mistaken - I was strongly convinced that if many countries swap their good old storm beaten $$$ to gold as a reserve, then it's sorta "normal" that we have new historical price records.

But that's far from AUD/USD, isn't it.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #10,977
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:27am Dec 7, 2009 4:27am
retest of lows coming up me thinks..
  • #10,978
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:29am Dec 7, 2009 4:29am
Quoting G_Man
i dont know where you get all your numbers from ... i am guessing Disneyland ... those numbers that you've mentioned (including your entry point) doesnt make any sense ... so when you say 9300 .. there is no reason for it to bounce back from 9300 cuz if it gets there it will go above and reach 9400 again or 9500 ...

AUD is bearish this week ...
  • #10,979
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:30am Dec 7, 2009 4:30am
Quoting Jesus4748
i think it migh stop for an ABC correction around 8950 or 90

to puks ,, i have one answer for u ,, u r talkin about fundmentals and not lookin to the charts ,,, u r sayin everything is just perfect for the AUD to up trend
then
why did the AUD break the MULTI Daily uptrend
and why did it show a divergance that it didnt show since march
and why did it made a head and shoulders on the daily chart
why it didnt just continue as before sailing high if everything is ok
a daily trend line has been broken with head and shoulders and rsi and multi...
hi mate,

I am not a chartist trader. What I look for in charts is the key S/R level, indicators (mostly lagging) and fibbo retracements and that's about it.

I believe in AUD, as long as .8910-20 area remain intact, we are still in the overall uptrend. my weekly has indeed given me the reversal signals but those are not strong.

If you recall Aug 7 (NFP), EUR tanked from mid 1.44xx to around 1.41xx and people started talking the same stuff. Break of long term trend line, we'll see 1.35xx levels etc and start building shorts. Only a few weeks later you knew what happened!! Eur created new high...

I weekly close below .8910-20 would confirm a trend reversal otherwise, I am long.

You and I could differ but lets happily agree to disagree :-))
  • #10,980
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:32am Dec 7, 2009 4:32am
Quoting puks
G'day traders,

Well, I have started to build my longs. Tell me what has changed fundamentally in Australia for its dollar to fall to 87-88 levels as some of the traders have predicted here?

Agree US posted a great job result but don't be fooled by that number because they are NOT ALL full-time jobs. Those numbers WERE NOT seasonally adjusted numbers. Only if we see sustained increase in employment numbers, we can think of Fed raising the interest rates.

Say even if the Fed raises their interest rates, what will happen in Australia? Is Mr....

The aussie will fall to .82 (minimum) by the end of January 2010. This is going to be a deep retracement, imo. Somebody wins, somebody loses; that is trading. Market will be the judge.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
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