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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,561
  • Dec 5, 2009 6:07am Dec 5, 2009 6:07am
Quoting saka
and also this
Good Trades Saka, It really opened my eyes... The fact that you're looking high probability trades by combining 4H and 5M. I really enjoying your post, time1300, BenStevo and of course the master himself Mr. Phillip....
Please post more....
  • #21,562
  • Dec 6, 2009 12:42am Dec 6, 2009 12:42am
Quoting hammerhead
Good Trades Saka, It really opened my eyes... The fact that you're looking high probability trades by combining 4H and 5M. I really enjoying your post, time1300, BenStevo and of course the master himself Mr. Phillip....
Please post more....
Thanks very much. hammerhead

In fact I suffer a consequese of loses of such trades that I want to combine different stratetgies together and consider different TF so that I can find the best opportunities with best position and MM to catch a middle term trade which I think the R:R is very worth to trade with.

This is the first time I success, and I think mostly it based on Phillip's strategies so that it is worth to be posted.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,563
  • Dec 6, 2009 4:40am Dec 6, 2009 4:40am
Quoting saka
Thanks very much. hammerhead

In fact I suffer a consequese of loses of such trades that I want to combine different stratetgies together and consider different TF so that I can find the best opportunities with best position and MM to catch a middle term trade which I think the R:R is very worth to trade with.

This is the first time I success, and I think mostly it based on Phillip's strategies so that it is worth to be posted.

In fact I suffer a consequese of loses of such trades that I want to combine different stratetgies together and consider different TF so that I can find the best opportunities with best position and MM to catch a middle term trade which I think the R:R is very worth to trade with.

This is the first time I success, and I think mostly it based on Phillip's strategies so that it is worth to be posted.[/quote]

Absolutely! It really takes the pain to gain. I myself still studying on how to combine 4H with smaller TF as well, but most of my losses because I didn't waited for 4H signal candle and lack of patience... Please post more, even a loss trade still worth to be posted. I'd like to know more on how you get entry and t/p from the market based on Phillip's great system.... 谢谢！(do i spell it right?)
  • #21,564
  • Dec 6, 2009 7:24am Dec 6, 2009 7:24am
Quoting hammerhead
Absolutely! It really takes the pain to gain. I myself still studying on how to combine 4H with smaller TF as well, but most of my losses because I didn't waited for 4H signal candle and lack of patience... Please post more, even a loss trade still worth to be posted. I'd like to know more on how you get entry and t/p from the market based on Phillip's great system.... 谢谢！(do i spell it right?)
yes, you're right. It is hard to believe that you can type Chinese characters. And I also should say 不客气 to you

Honestly, I think if you are still new to this strategy, you had better most base on 4h strategy which means you should wait for 4h signals. it is a target that one can combine different stragtegies and TFs together but it is really very hard. The experience is the thing that we must have, and also the traditional technique of daily & weekly chart.

Meanwhile, posting these tough trades can let the new comers misunderstand the strategy. So I think only the valuable ones need to be posted with.

After the long journey we must suffer, I believe we are able to find the grail of trading FX finally
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,565
  • Dec 6, 2009 10:16am Dec 6, 2009 10:16am
Quoting saka
Form 4h chart of eu, I expected it would form a double tops at 3rd Dec. I entered at 5min chart after Trichet spoke, close half lots when obtain proper profit and still hold the other half ones, because I know that eu would form a shooting star at daily chart with the failure attamptaion of overcome the previous high.
Nice trades Saka. I was also on the lookout for short after that daily candle...no luck for me tho - the only decent 4hr entry that met my criteria was right around NFP so I stayed clear. That must have been a great R:R for you after jumping in off the 5min
  • #21,566
  • Dec 6, 2009 4:14pm Dec 6, 2009 4:14pm
Great trades Saka.
  • #21,567
  • Edited Dec 7, 2009 2:24am Dec 6, 2009 4:51pm | Edited Dec 7, 2009 2:24am
The NFP figures were certainly better than expected. This means that there is a possibility that the US economy is finally improving. At this stage we need more figures to be released to be certain. If the US economy is indeed improving then it is likely that the federal reserve will increase interest rates(Bloomberg Dec 4th) as they are not in favour of the near zero interest rates.

Here are some technical formations which I found interesting.

1. Gold has formed a weekly pinbar after rising so much.
2. EU has closed below the 50 SMA on the daily chart after many months above it
3. UJ has reversed. The USD is no longer being sold off against the YEN.

Please be aware that these are weekly and daily charts below. Remember to do your analysis on the 4 hr chart before trading. It is likely that after Friday's big move that there will be a retrace on the 4 hr.
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  • #21,568
  • Dec 6, 2009 5:09pm Dec 6, 2009 5:09pm
For those who would like to read Phil's Weekly Anticipation but don't receive it by email, click here.
  • #21,569
  • Dec 7, 2009 1:49am Dec 7, 2009 1:49am
Quoting BenStevo
Nice trades Saka. I was also on the lookout for short after that daily candle...no luck for me tho - the only decent 4hr entry that met my criteria was right around NFP so I stayed clear. That must have been a great R:R for you after jumping in off the 5min
Thanks, Ben
If we set sl at proper level, it is worth to have a try
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,570
  • Dec 7, 2009 1:50am Dec 7, 2009 1:50am
Quoting xeneric
Great trades Saka.
Thanks, Xen
We should observe the market carefully because the dollar maybe reverse, Phillip also has the view on daily chart anaylsis of eu
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,571
  • Edited 2:49am Dec 7, 2009 2:38am | Edited 2:49am
I took the TC on the MACD. Went short EU.

S/L 1.4923
Entry 1.48726

Took 1/2 profit at 1.48301 and waiting to see if it will go through support or will it pull back above support ?
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  • #21,572
  • Dec 7, 2009 2:49am Dec 7, 2009 2:49am
Quoting xeneric
I took the TC on the MACD. Went short EU.

S/L 1.4923
Entry 1.48726

Took 1/2 profit at 1.4830 but waiting to see if it will go through support or will it pull back above support ?
Nice trade. Xen

After all, this is a 4h early entry. 9:00 GMT+1 Trichet was speaking. But there are still good signals at 1h and 5min at that time. Unfortunately, when I took a glance at it, it is a litte bit late.

BTW, I must say, people escpecially the new comers should pay more attension to 4h rhythm and avoid big news. Do not let the news confuses yourself if you haven't been familiar with Phillip's strategies yet
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #21,573
  • Edited 4:26am Dec 7, 2009 2:55am | Edited 4:26am
Quoting saka
Nice trade. Xen

After all, this is a 4h early entry. 9:00 GMT+1 Trichet was speaking. But there are still good signals at 1h and 5min at that time. Unfortunately, when I took a glance at it, it is a litte bit late.
Thanks Saka. Yes it moved very fast after he spoke but the tails from the previous candles on the 1 hr and the 4 hr indicated the direction. I took it due to price action more than the TC but when I looked there was a TC to confirm it as well. TO be honest I wasn't aware of the news otherwise I would have stayed out.
  • #21,574
  • Dec 7, 2009 3:55am Dec 7, 2009 3:55am
Quoting BenStevo

And if it breaks down through the triangle...?? I've noticed that if price breaks/closes back down past the centre line (dashed line) then it tends to confirm a false break upwards and price will tend to continue falling. SL placed 10-15 pips above the centre line seems to hold well (trade entry on candle close below centre line).I don't trade these setups live yet, but they rarely fail from what I've seen. Has anyone else got ideas on triangle false breaks? I'm definitely interested to understand more on these.
Was not in this move, but once again, a price close below the centre line of a consolidation triangle has given a profitable entry. SL can be kept nice and tight in these cases. Will have to start trading these live I think.

PS - centre line is not necessarily splitting the triangle directly in half, but eyeballing up the consolidation area and drawing a horizontal line through the middle of consolidation, especially the more recent PA before triangle is broken. I like to draw it slightly on the conservative side (in this case, maybe slightly higher than 'looks' right) just so I'm safe.
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  • #21,575
  • Dec 7, 2009 4:00am Dec 7, 2009 4:00am
Quoting xeneric
I took the TC on the MACD. Went short EU.

S/L 1.4923
Entry 1.48726

Took 1/2 profit at 1.48301 and waiting to see if it will go through support or will it pull back above support ?
Nice trade! Having some slight remorse for holding back. Gotta stick with my rules tho and wait for setups I'm confident in.
  • #21,576
  • Edited 5:54am Dec 7, 2009 4:24am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting BenStevo
Nice trade! Having some slight remorse for holding back. Gotta stick with my rules tho and wait for setups I'm confident in.
Thanks BenStevo. Would appreciate seeing any trades that you make using the triangle. Please post them.
  • #21,577
  • Edited 4:37am Dec 8, 2009 3:43am | Edited 4:37am
I am taking the double bottom and divergence on the 4 hr EU.

EDIT : Closed for 9 pips. Too much resistance at 1.4865 and not enough strong momentum to break through it at the moment.
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  • #21,578
  • Dec 8, 2009 12:44pm Dec 8, 2009 12:44pm
Hi I have just just started Phillip strategy. Thx Phillip for all great work.

I feel lost when prices moved away from EMAs. I have lost all monthly profit after Dubai World news. So now I am patient to open new trades. Just trading when watching prices online.

Do you switch to different time periods to see better picture for hard time like in December? Impossible to see nice prices moves.

Take care
  • #21,579
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:09pm Dec 8, 2009 10:09pm
is anybody looking at RB on EY ?. Very appealing..
  • #21,580
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:22am Dec 9, 2009 1:22am
Quoting lukis
Hi I have just just started Phillip strategy. Thx Phillip for all great work.

I feel lost when prices moved away from EMAs. I have lost all monthly profit after Dubai World news. So now I am patient to open new trades. Just trading when watching prices online.

Do you switch to different time periods to see better picture for hard time like in December? Impossible to see nice prices moves.

Take care
I think you have to be extremely careful about switching to different (smaller) time periods. My experience is that the line very quickly becomes blurred between legitimate entries on smaller timeframes vs. looking for trades. At the time, it doesn't feel like you're looking for trades - for some funny reason, that only becomes apparent in hindsight.

Is your backtesting and live trading profitable using the 4hr? Again, this may be another helpful 'marker' for you. If you're struggling to make consistent profits using the 4hrs, I personally believe there is absolutely no reason to consider shorter time periods - the 4hr in my experience is far more reliable than 1hr etc. On the other hand, if 4hr is working well for you, then the 1hr can give good opportunities, BUT YOU NEED TO KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING!

Also, I find the daily TF can give you a good heads-up on which way things are going. I always feel more confident in the outcome of my trades when a 4hr trade is based on what the daily is doing, or when the daily is approaching an important level etc.

Good luck!

PS - if you can make one good trade per week risking 3% say, thats over 10% per month. For me, that's a figure I'm happy with (still working on making it a reality tho). This thinking helps me when I start 'looking' for trades. I just remind myself that there are plenty of great / obvious setups and if I just wait, one will certainly turn up soon. I don't need to always be in a trade to make money.
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