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  • #8,221
  • Dec 5, 2009 5:25pm Dec 5, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting hcristea
Worker:
Speaking about confluences on the Daily! We might have a small-small shooting star, or doji at fibo 50% retracement level and 50 SMA and 20 EMA and at resistance at 0.93 (psycho level too).
The candle from Thursday was not a Shooting Star candle even if it looked like one (for an untrained eye like mine). Was not a SS because it was not big enough relative to the previous candles. It did not looked like a true battle between bears and bull but more like a pause in expectation of Friday's NFP news release.

Candles like that are not reversal signs even if they occur in the "neighbourhood" of clusters/confluences/SR leves.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting hcristea
NFP tomorrow might change everything. I don't know if i would take a short considering fridays NFP. If that the SL might be very close, under the usual range of the previous candles, NFP volatility could take that SL.
NFP came and the volatility would have taken out the SL of a SELL order placed under that candle from Thursday. In conclusion, looking for a SHORT before the NFP in this situation was a bad idea.
  • #8,222
  • Dec 5, 2009 5:30pm Dec 5, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting trogger
Hello Strat and team...

I PM'd Naws recently to let him know that I had been lurking/trolling the thread for quite sometime and that I would like to register as a serious student of the thread (as requested by strat in various posts).
Naws asked me to post an introduction here and at first I was reluctant as with approx 550 pages now, this thread is a fairly daunting reading task for newbies without adding extra posts that need to be sifted through by newcomers.
I think it is a brilliant thread and thank Strat and all those who selflessly give...
Naws asked me to post an introduction here and at first I was reluctant as with approx 550 pages now, this thread is a fairly daunting reading task for newbies without adding extra posts that need to be sifted through by newcomers.

Others can bitch, moan and groan to their heart’s content about these introductory posts but for me, it’s very important as I learn something every time from these.

You describe yourself as a “slow learner” as if this was derogatory. I would much rather people go at a tortoise pace and FULLY and THOROUGHLY UNDERSTAND than tear through it, finish it fast and KNOW NOTHING. Take your time.

I have read the first 120 pages and the last 100 odd pages and am slowly trying to merge the 2 ends of the thread in the middle.


BIG MISTAKE – forget recent posts UNTIL you catch up with your reading and UNDERSTANDING. Recent posts will more than likely confuse and frustrate you. Just work through the thread in the progression it was written – it was well thought out and there is a reason for it along with words not written (read between the lines). Remember, my teaching style is NOT handing everything to you on a silver platter – it is to PROVOKE thought and imagination and hopefully questions.

I am going to quote a post by Strat (#1761 from page 118) below and my answers to the questions he asked the readers then. I would really appreciate if someone could check my answers and - I shudder to ask this- advise whether I am understanding or whether I need to go back to the start (again!)

[quote=strat;2656837]I hope the absence of posts on here about Monday's bar looking like a hammer means that everyone recognised it wasn't a hammer and more importantly, why it wasn't a hammer.

It wasn't a hammer because the tail was contained within the tail of the candle 2 days earlier?

Continue reading the thread and you will find your answers.

I saw a few posts on other threads where it was described as a hammer and to take long positions off it.


Many people just trade off certain candles with no consideration for support and resistance and the position of the candle relative to those around it, the trend (or lack of it) and the orders from the BOSS and BIG BOSS.

Even if it had been a hammer, a buy stop just above the "hammer" would have been heading straight into the declining trend line above.


Not a trend line but you get the point and your observation is correct.

Actually, looking at this again I see more. A lot more.

The candle has broken and closed below the supporting trendline..
BUT it has closed just above support at 8978 with further support at 8946
The candle has also closed between the 20 ema and the 50sma.
We should wait for a resolution of these areas before attempting a short (on a stop sell entry)?

Your analysis and observation is correct. There is more………………….keep reading!

(What is the difference between the mauve and the turquoise s/r lines please?)

132 pips!

Without knowing the pair and the time I can’t really tell you as many times I include minor trend lines in MY analysis to know when to expect a “wobble” as opposed to others who ignore minor S&R and just use the major S&R. Both are correct depending on your trading style.

Keep reading and you will learn more and eventually develop YOUR style of trading.

“Excuse me Strat – may I be excused? My brain is full”

While I do understand the need for signature sign offs, I believe they should ALWAYS be positive and constructive as they are reflective of YOUR personality.

Your sign off is NEGATIVE and a sign, to me, of someone looking for excuses.

So, on a POSITIVE note, thanks for introducing yourself and sharing your development to date.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,223
  • Dec 5, 2009 5:43pm Dec 5, 2009 5:43pm
Quoting hcristea
The candle from Thursday was not a Shooting Star candle even if it looked like one (for an untrained eye like mine). Was not a SS because it was not big enough relative to the previous candles. It did not looked like a true battle between bears and bull but more like a pause in expectation of Friday's NFP news release.

Candles like that are not reversal signs even if they occur in the "neighbourhood" of clusters/confluences/SR leves.

Attachment



NFP came and the volatility would have taken out the SL of a SELL order placed under...
The candle from Thursday was not a Shooting Star candle even if it looked like one (for an untrained eye like mine). Was not a SS because it was not big enough relative to the previous candles. It did not look like a true battle between bears and bull but more like a pause in expectation of Friday's NFP news release.

Candles like that are not reversal signs even if they occur in the "neighbourhood" of clusters/confluences/SR levels.
NFP came and the volatility would have taken out the SL of a SELL order placed under that candle from Thursday. In conclusion, looking for a SHORT before the NFP in this situation was a bad idea.

For many other reasons, that was not even close to a Bond Shooting Star!

Glad you saw the light!

NEVER, EVER TRADE IN FRONT OF NFP.

If you already have positions ahead of NFP, just pull in your SL to protect positions and profits.

Usually, the volatility caused by NFP trading will cause the Friday bar to be an OB thus filling orders above and below the Thursday bar.

Add to this that the big boys usually do stop runs on, prior to and after, the NFP announcement.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,224
  • Dec 5, 2009 7:03pm Dec 5, 2009 7:03pm
Quoting strat
NEVER, EVER TRADE IN FRONT OF NFP.
...
Add to this that the big boys usually do stop runs on, prior to and after, the NFP announcement.
Understood. I dont want to mess with the big boys.
  • #8,225
  • Dec 5, 2009 8:23pm Dec 5, 2009 8:23pm
Quoting strat

Without knowing the pair and the time I can’t really tell you as many times I include minor trend lines in MY analysis to know when to expect a “wobble” ...
I've been waiting for the technical explanation behind this ever since I read the first post about them. One more piece put in place. As always, thank you for sharing the good stuff.
-m
  • #8,226
  • Dec 5, 2009 8:38pm Dec 5, 2009 8:38pm
Quoting strat
Thanks.

Will someone take responsibility for posting a Strat Worker, BOSS and BIG BOSS chart of the US Dollar Index on an end of week basis?

Thanks.
Here they are.
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  • #8,227
  • Dec 5, 2009 9:33pm Dec 5, 2009 9:33pm
Quoting Blackeagle
Here they are.
Blackeagle
I'm going to assume USDX volume is relevant since you have it on your charts.

Your monthly shows huge volume last month. In my previous life that was what I knew to be 'stopping volume' and was indicative of a possible turn around.

Your weekly shows a BUEB and again huge volume for last week. Previous spikes on this chart also show stopping volume.

Your daily shows MASSIVE volume in comparison and again other spikes show reversals close by.

Without going into a dissertation of the relationship between stocks and currencies.

1. Do you see this as a potential bottoming of the dollar even though it isn't at major support.

2. Last weeks US stock market lost steam and is hanging out at the 1100 area on the S&P and at the 50 fib. Do you see this as a possible corresponding topping out.

This might reside in the land of bottom and top picking but traditionally, Dec = good for stocks and mid Jan they give it back and then some.

I ask all this because my personal opinion is that this coming year the piper will have to be paid. All that cheap money the institutionals have borrowed to pump into the market is coming to an end (not the interest rate part just the loan injections). Since it's also my opinion that's the only thing that's driven this market up and the common 'joe' isn't buying...then let the selling begin.

I don't want to detract from the main gist of the thread here so you may PM me if this is too far out of scope, but I'd like to hear from a more informed trader on their view of this.
  • #8,228
  • Edited 11:47pm Dec 5, 2009 11:35pm | Edited 11:47pm
Quoting mstandifer
Blackeagle
I'm going to assume USDX volume is relevant since you have it on your charts.

Your monthly shows huge volume last month....

The signs are there, pull up the UUP and you'll see the same volume a few weeks ago, highest volume ever, and we're holding, the dollar index volume is impressive. No I don't prescribe to fundamental analysis but I have been listening to the news and their sentiment. Could we be more bearish on the dollar? No, not even the sentiment against the stock market when we were in the 6000s was this bearish. Still I intend to remain a very prudent and patient. Nothing is certain, and I am not that experienced.

Oh and, this is an excellent opportunity Strat, thanks
  • #8,229
  • Dec 6, 2009 12:28am Dec 6, 2009 12:28am
Quoting mstandifer
Blackeagle
I'm going to assume USDX volume is relevant since you have it on your charts.

Your monthly shows huge volume last month....
The volume on those charts are 100% relevant because they are from future exchange. But one thing to remind you that the volume spikes in the first and second weeks of Mar, June, Sept and Dec are mostly due to futures contract change to next one.

Starting from Big Boss, Nov. bar is still bearish and we had only 4 trading days in Dec, so it is important to see how Dec bar will shape up, so from the Big Boss chart, sellers are still in control. Re. Boss chart, last two bars are proving that buyers do not want to give up 74.70 "almost major" SR so easily, but remember we had similar boss bars in August and October, too. And the last worker bar is really strong.

As a result of this brief analysis, I still see no change in dollar bear trend when you look at Dollar Index chart only (still going down). But if you are going to BET for bottom picking, 74.70 is worth to try (for top and bottom pickers only although neither Strat nor I recommend this kind of trading for the followers of this thread).

Re. my stock market opinion, check out Nov. bar which broke major 1070 SR. (for SP500). I still see the control of buyers from Big Boss and Boss charts.

Hope this helps.
  • #8,230
  • Dec 6, 2009 1:25am Dec 6, 2009 1:25am
Hi Fellow Tradershttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Here is the AUDUSD sum-up for the week ending 06.12.09:

Big Boss - For the 3rd month in a row the price is respecting the 0.9300 level, at this time an inside bar is forming, red candle.

Boss -after the break of Demand DSIR 2 weeks ago, last week we have another rejection of a major SR and round number, together with confluence of both the SR and DSIR. Possibility of DSIR switching polarity from Demand to Suppy. Inverted hammer - green.

Worker -After the wobble of 2 weeks ago price has returned to the same level as before the Dubai news and subsequently it has again lost the momentum at 0.9300, it has been testing this level since 19.10.09 over 15 times and it looks like Head and Shoulders too. Furthermore, MA's has flattened and are moving closer together pointing down, all this happening close to major SR and Supply DSIR.

Action:

1. For - trend traders - no trade at this time as there is no opportunity, wait for PA to show a way up from minor support at 0.8980 if this is not broken down again.

2. For - against trend traders -trade to the first resistance at 0.8980.

Currently observing for a possibility of trend change, or not.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
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  • #8,231
  • Dec 6, 2009 6:14am Dec 6, 2009 6:14am
Quoting Blackeagle
Hope this helps.
It does very much. Thanks, Blackeagle.
  • #8,232
  • Dec 6, 2009 10:51am Dec 6, 2009 10:51am
I think my wife thinks that all men are grumpy so I can't afford to confirm that thought. Nice off you to offer though!
  • #8,233
  • Dec 6, 2009 1:40pm Dec 6, 2009 1:40pm
Quoting strat
The candle from Thursday was not a Shooting Star candle even if it looked like one (for an untrained eye like mine). Was not a SS because it was not big enough relative to the previous candles. It did not look like a true battle between bears and bull but more like a pause in expectation of Friday's NFP news release.

Candles like that are not reversal signs even if they occur in the "neighbourhood" of clusters/confluences/SR levels.
[b][i][color=blue][font=Arial]NFP...
A perfect example for stop runs on eurnzd, it took out the last three candles lows and closed above 0700. The PA has shown 0700 is very strong support and now waiting for market to show hand. A close below 0700, next support will be 0323. I have learned the most important part from Strat and Blackeagle apart from technical is patient. With patient you will learn the technical part a lot easier.
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  • #8,234
  • Dec 6, 2009 2:12pm Dec 6, 2009 2:12pm
Traders that got their SHORT orders activated under Dec 2008 low are sweating big time now.

They are trapped and looking at the range of the last week candle the traders on the LONG side are no joke.

There's gonna be blood and I want to be on the other side .
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,235
  • Dec 6, 2009 2:14pm Dec 6, 2009 2:14pm
Quoting patrick25
A perfect example for stop runs on eurnzd ...
And that makes me more confident on the long side now that the place got cleaned . Let's see if we get a setup bar.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,236
  • Dec 6, 2009 3:55pm Dec 6, 2009 3:55pm
I was checking up on some early posters to the thread and got this:

Just wondering what happened to you.

Hey Strat, I got licked in the market a couple weeks ago and I haven't refunded my account. I'm not sure whether I'll try again or not. I hate to just become a statistic, but people do and that is why the numbers are so bad.

For the record, I was gambling the M5 repeatedly. I just lost the patience for daily trading, thought I wasn't getting rich fast enough.

Anyways, I hope things work out and that your hard work and diligence creates a few successful traders for the future. Who knows, when I save up some money I may try again. Hopefully you guys will still be around so I can keep learning.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,237
  • Dec 6, 2009 4:18pm Dec 6, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting strat
I was checking up on some early posters to the thread and got this:

[color=blue][i][b]Just wondering what happened to you....
Jeez, thanks for posting that. I moved to the daily. Noticed some nice candles over the past few weeks and watched them pay up. PA is all that matters to me.

Nice thread, I am still reading through it. Patience.
  • #8,238
  • Dec 6, 2009 4:20pm Dec 6, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting strat
I was checking up on some early posters to the thread and got this:

[color=blue][i][b]Just wondering what happened to you....
Hi Strat

I got licked in the market

We all do that at some stage or another, but I thought that it is our prerogative to learn from our mistakes and not to repeat them again. Otherwise we have no place in the forex market.

This inspires me even more to do what I do now and stay on the Path.

I hope he will repent and do it good next time. Not giving up and not making the same mistakes again.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #8,239
  • Dec 6, 2009 4:56pm Dec 6, 2009 4:56pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Fellow Tradershttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Here is the AUDUSD sum-up for the week ending 06.12.09:



Currently observing for a possibility of trend change, or not.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
Thanks Jideck
This analysis is in line with mine, however I read a little more into lenght of the wicks on the Oct and Nov candles on the Big Boss. To me it shows that sellers have been showing up in numbers at the 93 level but the buyers have prevailed so far but the sellers persistence have resulted in a corrective price action on the Boss after the strong impulsive run.I agree with your conclusion to stay on the sideline until an impulsive close above 94 or below 89
  • #8,240
  • Dec 6, 2009 5:11pm Dec 6, 2009 5:11pm
Quoting jacanpipster
Thanks Jideck
This analysis is in line with mine, however I read a little more into lenght of the wicks on the Oct and Nov candles on the Big Boss. To me it shows that sellers have been showing up in numbers at the 93 level but the buyers have prevailed so far but the sellers persistence have resulted in a corrective price action on the Boss after the strong impulsive run.I agree with your conclusion to stay on the sideline until an impulsive close above 94 or below 89
Good stuff. The 0.9300 level is very hot at this moment and waiting for a stress free trade is a must now.
Many thankshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
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