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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,301
  • Dec 3, 2009 6:28pm Dec 3, 2009 6:28pm
Sent you a pm. Not sure if I should post links or not although the link is in post #3892 anyway.

Goodnight chaps.
Keep smiling
  • #4,302
  • Edited 11:45pm Dec 3, 2009 8:28pm | Edited 11:45pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I'll give em a read and see if anything clicks this time. If it doesn't I think it's time to move on, I've spent enough time on this thread reading it and life's too short. I'm not a quitter but this is all too mystical for me. Hey I like Sam Seiden's stuff anyway, much simpler.

Although it's always a pleasure to talk to Texans.
What exactly are you looking for? Maybe I can help.. Have you taken a look at the last fibs I posted?
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #4,303
  • Dec 3, 2009 9:24pm Dec 3, 2009 9:24pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Sent you a pm. Not sure if I should post links or not although the link is in post #3892 anyway.

Goodnight chaps.
Thank you I will take a look at it now. Maybe it will help to clear up some things.
  • #4,304
  • Dec 4, 2009 12:45am Dec 4, 2009 12:45am
AK, morning. Sam's stuff does not use fibs, so don't go looking there for a solution to this thread. His more a simpler way of trading, no mystery about it. I hope you like it.

Dunkan, somtimes I wonder what I am looking for, lol. I'm just trying to help the other posters here. I do like a puzzle to solve and if I'm going to solve I need to look at all the clues first so I can start looking in the right place. Unless you want to just tell me what to do but that wouldn't be keeping with the nature of this thread would it. We all need to find it ourselves. Gotta run or I will miss my train!
Keep smiling
  • #4,305
  • Dec 4, 2009 4:28pm Dec 4, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting Trader_X
there is something we all need to figure out... skunny said on one of his first post that we need to draw a chart like his and see what happens when it is penatared not boken.. that its important to watch it live ..ive traded vhands and i dont get it...any ideas any one
Hi,
I think that Skunny was talking about looking for S/R that is penetrated but not broken. Then either take that as a hint of direction, or use that extreme for a Fib start/end point.
Once price beyond that extreme, then it is going to trap a lot of traders and take out a lot of stops - which gives it further momentum (compare with Sam Seiden).

A quote from post #81:
.....

The market likes to give hints on where it is going to go next, even if it takes a while to get there. You can
observe this when S/R lines are penetrated but not broken. As long as you have your S/R in the right spot.
For instance, if a support area is penetrated by 20 pips and turns itself into the most misread candle in trading.......The Dreaded Pin Bar.
After the "pin bar" is done getting everyone into a long trade it magically heads back down to bust through the support. You can know this information ahead of time, so you aren't long. You can sit there all smug waiting for a short signal and do this. This is where Vhands trading is essential. You can watch the price action hit the supports you've drawn and see how it reacts to it. Looking at a candle that has already formed is relatively useless in the learning process.
  • #4,306
  • Edited 5:05pm Dec 4, 2009 4:58pm | Edited 5:05pm
@Trader_X
You say some have questioned whether Skunny had ever said that a Fib had to be validated by price reaction to the 38.2% and or 61.8%.

Quoting Skunny
Your bright blue fib is not valid until the mid range resistance levels are completed.
  • #4,307
  • Dec 4, 2009 5:30pm Dec 4, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi,
I think that Skunny was talking about looking for S/R that is penetrated but not broken. Then either take that as a hint of direction, or use that extreme for a Fib start/end point.
Once price beyond that extreme, then it is going to trap a lot of traders and take out a lot of stops - which gives it further momentum (compare with Sam Seiden).

A quote from post #81:
.....
[left]The market likes to give hints on where it is going to go next, even if it takes a while to get there. You can
[font=TimesNewRomanPSMT]observe...
Thanks for pointing this out Ian. What Ian has pointed out here (and forget fibs for a sec), when price breaks down though a support area, a breakdown, it quite often rallys back up to the support. On it's way down it will clear out any stop losses of traders who are sitting long who buy to escape thus (but not always) pushing the price back up to the previous support that was just broken. You now have your pin bar, providing it was a quick move. Now is a good time to enter short back at the recent resistance as you will be joining all the sellers who missed the last move and, all the stops have just been cleared out from the breakdown. This is exactly what Sam Seiden teaches.

The only difference with Sam Seiden is he does not use fibs to look for support and resistence areas, he just looks at the chart. If you look yourself you will see them. The best are where price has only visted a level for a short time.

Is that ok? Do I make sense. Iv'e tried to add a slight bit of mystery to give it that Skunny feel and to wind up XTrader
Keep smiling
  • #4,308
  • Dec 4, 2009 6:15pm Dec 4, 2009 6:15pm
ian you are awesome! i believe you have solved that part of the riddle.. i have reviewed skunnys notes religously and i never put those post together...he says you have to learn what happens when S/R is penetrated not broken...then later says the market likes to give hints on its direction this is noted when S/R is penetrated not broken.....this has to be what he wanted us to learn.

2) as for validation of inner fibs ...again you are correct... he did post your blue fib isnt validated until the mid range resistance levels are completed..


question ??? do you take that to mean that the inner fibs need only be crossed or do you think that price must react to those fibs..

id be willing to bet that price has to dance off those inner fibs and that this is why skunny said you had to watch this live (vhands) and that closed candles would be virtually useless...what do you think??

this is excellant guys ...this is what i was hoping to see happen here.. i know everyone involved on this thread has spent a great deal of time studying skunnys riddle and collectively i really believe we can peice this toghter... again great work ian

misterdaz... i did go watch sam seiden's videos and i do agree there is some definate similiarities to what he is saying...nice work!!!!
  • #4,309
  • Dec 4, 2009 6:44pm Dec 4, 2009 6:44pm
Well I'm glad that little piece of the puzzle is solved, you can all come round and help me finish decorating my kitchen before my wife finds out I've been reading Skunny's posts all night instead.

Hey guys have a nice day, I'm off to bed, well maybe one more whiskey, night.
Keep smiling
  • #4,310
  • Dec 4, 2009 9:34pm Dec 4, 2009 9:34pm
G'day!

our next immediate target is 151.56, from there 164. However you have to track price to get to where you are going. some time you can enter in multi hundred pip trades but once you know your target is 100% from practice 3 pips is as much as 3000 or 3 million depending on your acct size. If you have a 100% percent trade your 50k account will be rather large with time and patience.

If your account is not up to snuff at the moment, it will be. Patience in all things. A chap may enter into something a traditonal trade may thin is a terrible risk reward proposition, but there is not any risk, hence one must just factor dd and make sure it is withstainable. If you do not not what you are doing though, you will bankrupt yourself with this mentality of get rich now.

I have chosen the sr method for fibs ,but ranges and ratios work as well. this allows me to time my entries and factor for drawdown or rather.. catch a train moving in my direction.

In this example one may have taken a long on price action towards 164; however, being cognicent of the fact you must follow immediate price.I myself would only take the immediate target and that is all one needs. We are long and going to that target. If price is floating through your fib.. that works too but that is a diferent skunny fib discipline and one I do not care for personally as it is not me.

In the second chart I am showing another fib setting up. It is not triggered until the break of of this fib; however, there could be smaller fib that will indicate its direction before this does. Fibs are not "approximate" or " in the area of". Your fib may not always reach profit and turn to the tick ,but you just need to know it will profit and stop gambling mates.

third pic is a simple range or swing fib .. not so much inner fib sr confirmation that you can see on this tf, but this was no accident. Price moves in the fib ratios of 138. Skunny appears to have titrated down levels he likes and I have seen no need to use others. things to the tick are not accident. I would not have pulled nor trded this ib as it is not my style , but it is good to know it was there after the fact if you were checking things like this as it is a good point to start looking for shorts.

Cheers

TK
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  • #4,311
  • Dec 4, 2009 9:41pm Dec 4, 2009 9:41pm
this was an example from last night. The second candle validated the fibs placement by showing sr respect and I would not have taken it until the said candles top was broken for the sake of a good entry at that time it was broken,iI would have personally factored drawdown from the bottom of that candle, but you could have used the 0 line as you would not fail.

Why not just enter immediately? If you are a sloppy bloody fool then sure. This fib from the trigger was not strong enough to justify that either for me. The second candle confirmed and told me to wait for a break of ai candle to enter in my experience.

How did this work out? Would you be mewling about not getting the 300 pips? No. Because if you know you are 100% right why bother a thought on pip count.


TK

I wrinkled my brow and thought perhaps one did want a larger move for some bloody reason as it simply is not needed pip are for rr and this has nothing to do with rr. Chart 2. Skunny is one of if not the best or at the very least most innovative traders ever. Hence this thread is gold. Nothing he said was a porky pie.
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  • #4,312
  • Dec 4, 2009 10:15pm Dec 4, 2009 10:15pm
This is started from the redline and even if you did not find this beforehand it is good you found it ..even after target attained. All one needs is one good trade. This is one version, as there are many, of a walkthrough bringing us to this specific version of now. There are alway many things going on and no "one" right version. It is about what you can see an understan in the context of this fib.

Why would a chap use the body? well in the first instance on the push toward target after smaller target( follow price) attained ( I would not have traded (tracked perhaps yes) this off of this time frame as I was the receiver of no respect, but still good to know even after the fact, yes?) I would have known we were long and a personal twist of using bodies is to do this on countertrend trades.

This ends with immediate target.

Cheers

Tk

I used the fib i did on the end fib as it confirmed to the 50 body of the candle.. for a trade I need confirmation and you might want it as well. This is by far no where nea the ultimate fib but it is completely accurate so that is all you need unless you think differently. 71 100% pips is good no?
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  • #4,313
  • Dec 5, 2009 5:46pm Dec 5, 2009 5:46pm
I need to correct something I said earlier before someone discredits me. When I was talking about price breaking down any trader in a long position would buy to get out. Of course, this is wrong, they would sell and probably push price lower initially. The point of this is those stops would be cleared out so if price returns to the original support (now resistance), the smarter sellers return with less barriers to hold up the move down again.

I really have gotta leave that scotch alone....
Keep smiling
  • #4,314
  • Dec 5, 2009 6:22pm Dec 5, 2009 6:22pm
its all good misterdaz...we knew what you meant....let me ask you a question whats your take on thomknights charts???
  • #4,315
  • Dec 5, 2009 7:45pm Dec 5, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I need to correct something I said earlier before someone discredits me. When I was talking about price breaking down any trader in a long position would buy to get out. Of course, this is wrong, they would sell and probably push price lower initially. The point of this is those stops would be cleared out so if price returns to the original support (now resistance), the smarter sellers return with less barriers to hold up the move down again.

I really have gotta leave that scotch alone....

LOL,I seen the quote about the scotch in your post so I knew you ment to say something else.Don't worry I do the same myself
  • #4,316
  • Dec 5, 2009 9:45pm Dec 5, 2009 9:45pm
I have been reading Skunny's thread for awihile now and i've also tried to use his method in my own live trading. I myself prefer to trade the single weekly candles. Does anyone know what it is that actually prevents price from hitting the the 1.382 fib ext? I think that this is the problem many traders are having with Skunnys method of trading. We draw our fibs and see support or resitstance penetrated and we think we know what's about to happen only to see the price move to the opposite end of the candle. Can anybody tell me why?
  • #4,317
  • Dec 6, 2009 12:34am Dec 6, 2009 12:34am
Quoting Billionz
[font=Book Antiqua][size=3]I have been reading Skunny's thread for awihile now and i've also tried to use his method in my own live trading. I myself prefer to trade the single weekly candles. Does anyone know what it is that actually prevents price from hitting the the 1.382 fib ext? I think that this is the problem many traders are having with Skunnys method of trading. We draw our fibs and see support or resitstance penetrated and we think we know what's about to happen only to see the price move to the opposite end of the...
That is the whole purpose of practicing and observing. Once you figure out why not every sr pairing works, you will be on your way.

The thread is laid out I presume ,as Skunny learned and we all learn differently, hence, It may not click for everyone. That is fine.

If someone were to tell you the reason, it still wouldn't help I do not think, but here goes. Price moves in ratios of 1.382. If the fib you are measuring is not completed chap.. it is because it was not following that and had a different target...hence one must track price I have found. When something "fails" it did not fail it was "operator error" so find what it was following.

How might one know if you are tracking the correct set of ratios? Perhaps the inner fib respect might help you there.... or you can religiously track sr pairings. This is worth the work to go through the thread. Just pay attention to Skunnys posts and put in the sweat. Sticking to 1hr is not a bad idea either as Skunny suggested.

Another hint lies in basic fib theory.. specifically revolving around the 61.8. If price retraces past the 61.8 your direction/trend is not intact. At least not on that fib.

This screengrab is an example of a perfect fib in my eyes. There are many version of perfect but this looks perfect to me and was traded with 100% confidence. No risk of losing at all.

Good Luck.

TK
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  • #4,318
  • Dec 6, 2009 12:54am Dec 6, 2009 12:54am
Quoting ThomKnight
That is the whole purpose of practicing and observing. Once you figure out why not every sr pairing works, you will be on your way.

The thread is laid out I presume ,as Skunny learned and we all learn differently, hence, It may not click for everyone. That is fine.

If someone were to tell you the reason, it still wouldn't help I do not think, but here goes. Price moves in ratios of 1.382. If the fib you are measuring is not completed chap.. it is because it was not following that and had a different target...hence one must track price I have...
I am looking at your chart and I don't see which candle your 0 line is anchored to. Also, was this fib pulled off of a single candle on a higher time frame? The reason why I was using the single candle method was to learn the basic of Skunnys teaching first.
  • #4,319
  • Dec 6, 2009 12:58am Dec 6, 2009 12:58am
Quoting ThomKnight
That is the whole purpose of practicing and observing. Once you figure out why not every sr pairing works, you will be on your way....
Hello ThomKnight thank you for your posts and screenshots as they say pictures are 1000 words in this case they are more so I would like to say thanx and I have 1 question. What is your take on the 76.4% fib does it matter at all does it mean anything? I have used the 76.4% fib to trade 100% a while back and I use it now very successfully. I guess I just have an obsession with figuring out what skunny is trying to teach plus Im always willing to learn so please post away.
  • #4,320
  • Dec 6, 2009 9:58am Dec 6, 2009 9:58am
thomknight...thank you for your post and your chart and thank you for a straight answer...i just dont think anyone else on this thread can handle any more riddles...but i do have a question what would be your next fib on the charts you posted...thanks again!
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