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50 pips candle system

  • #341
  • Dec 4, 2009 2:06am Dec 4, 2009 2:06am
Quoting Pipkeeper
Zebulon, i'm a bit lost on d evaluation method. Care to explain further?
Now it is approaching 1.6500.

1st position : short @ 1.6600 , SL moved to 1.6600 from 1.6650 (0 risk)
2nd position : short @ 1.6550, SL still @ 1.6600 (50 pips risk)
No TP set for both position yet.

Now, should we put another sell order @ 1.6500?
We had a short at 1.6600 (1 lot) because 2 previous candles were red. SL was 1.6650 no TP.
The price went down to 1.6550, so we have moved the SL from 1.6650 to 1.6600 . But we have still 1 lot.
When the price went up to 1.6600 we are stopped (Break even).
But i consider the last trade is a loss. So we are trading with 2 lots :
i place a buy order (2 lots) at 1.6550 (playing the range) with SL = 1.6500 and TP = 1.6600
I place 2 other buy orders (1 lot + 1 lot) at 1.6650 (playing the trend).1 lot with SL = 1.6600 no TP, 1 lot with SL=1.6600 and TP = 1.6700

I hope this could help !
Attached Image
  • #342
  • Dec 4, 2009 2:08am Dec 4, 2009 2:08am
hello zebulon .. regarding the "semi-martingale" approach , i think it could work.. but more testing and maybe tweeking must be done.. also research on max consecutive losses encountered

for example , in january 09.. heres the 1st few w/l sequence we got..

W L L W L L L W L L L L L L L L W

as u can see there was a period of 8 consecutive losses.. meaning with the semi martingale syst, u would have lost 1+2+4+1+2+4 = 14 x % per trade.. (the last 2 consecutive losses was covered by the next winning trade)

also from my back testing along Jan , 3,4,5 consecutive losses r not that uncommon

so the best way to know which approach is better is to redo the backtest n see the results ..

later..
  • #343
  • Dec 4, 2009 4:04am Dec 4, 2009 4:04am
ahh .. another stopped-out. loss another 50 pips.. haha.. profit off 100 pips from wednesday went break-even.. is there a mistake that i should look and correct?

A simple look, it seems that every after 3 consecutive bar (in trend), a reverse bar will emerge.. or perhaps today is NFP day, so market moves enormously.
  • #344
  • Dec 4, 2009 4:42am Dec 4, 2009 4:42am
Quoting Pipkeeper
ahh .. another stopped-out. loss another 50 pips.. haha.. profit off 100 pips from wednesday went break-even.. is there a mistake that i should look and correct?

A simple look, it seems that every after 3 consecutive bar (in trend), a reverse bar will emerge.. or perhaps today is NFP day, so market moves enormously.
No mistake, just market law. we have to be patient !
  • #345
  • Dec 4, 2009 6:14am Dec 4, 2009 6:14am
Quoting zebulon
The method is supposed to work in trending market and in ranging market.
So, when does it not work ?

Usually, we win a lot when there is a big trend or a big range.
In other case, we win 50, and we loss 50, we win 50 and we loss 50 and so on.

In december we have RGRGGGGRGGGRRR


or +-++--+-+
Hi Zebulon

thank you for sharing your system with us, it seems great


In earlier posts you mentioned you enter at either 00 or 50.

I've marked on the chart green and red lines to represent the green and red candles starting from Dec 1st 00:00 GMT

The sequence I get is different from yours you start with RGRGGGG where as I get RGGGGG

Can you explain where I've made a mistake? how do you get the first R & G ?

thx
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  • #346
  • Edited 8:09am Dec 4, 2009 7:11am | Edited 8:09am
Quoting zebulon
We had a short at 1.6600 (1 lot) because 2 previous candles were red. SL was 1.6650 no TP.
The price went down to 1.6550, so we have moved the SL from 1.6650 to 1.6600 . But we have still 1 lot.
When the price went up to 1.6600 we are stopped (Break even).
But i consider the last trade is a loss. So we are trading with 2 lots :
i place a buy order (2 lots) at 1.6550 (playing the range) with SL = 1.6500 and TP = 1.6600
I place 2 other buy orders (1 lot + 1 lot) at 1.6650 (playing the trend).1 lot with SL = 1.6600 no TP, 1 lot with SL=1.6600 and TP...

hmm then can i ask if we won the tp 100pips lot on trending. then shud we play on 2 lot the nxt time since the nxt one will hit the sl? i am not very sure when to start with the 1 lot again. its untill we reach the 4 lots? and the 3 lots is each tp at how many pips+1lot no tp? i dont understand how the tp comes into play in the evolutionary
  • #347
  • Dec 4, 2009 7:12am Dec 4, 2009 7:12am
Quoting fugly
Hi Zebulon

thank you for sharing your system with us, it seems great


In earlier posts you mentioned you enter at either 00 or 50.

I've marked on the chart green and red lines to represent the green and red candles starting from Dec 1st 00:00 GMT

The sequence I get is different from yours you start with RGRGGGG where as I get RGGGGG

Can you explain where I've made a mistake? how do you get the first R & G ?

thx
The first R and G are from the day before
Regards
  • #348
  • Dec 4, 2009 7:15am Dec 4, 2009 7:15am
Quoting fugly
Hi Zebulon

thank you for sharing your system with us, it seems great


In earlier posts you mentioned you enter at either 00 or 50.

I've marked on the chart green and red lines to represent the green and red candles starting from Dec 1st 00:00 GMT

The sequence I get is different from yours you start with RGRGGGG where as I get RGGGGG

Can you explain where I've made a mistake? how do you get the first R & G ?

thx

Correct sequence for both of you. Zebulon started counting two bars earlier.
So he has RGRGGGGRGGGRRR and in your chart you have
__________RGGGGRGGGRRR
  • #349
  • Dec 4, 2009 8:33am Dec 4, 2009 8:33am
i think the profit this mth shud be 0 again right? did i count wrongly?
  • #350
  • Dec 4, 2009 11:41am Dec 4, 2009 11:41am
Quoting fugly
Hi Zebulon

thank you for sharing your system with us, it seems great


In earlier posts you mentioned you enter at either 00 or 50.

I've marked on the chart green and red lines to represent the green and red candles starting from Dec 1st 00:00 GMT

The sequence I get is different from yours you start with RGRGGGG where as I get RGGGGG

Can you explain where I've made a mistake? how do you get the first R & G ?

thx
You have the same as me.
Just one difference, when i 've started the month, i 've watched the 3 previous candles (some were in november) to place my first order for december.
  • #351
  • Dec 4, 2009 11:47am Dec 4, 2009 11:47am
Quoting ja5on
hmm then can i ask if we won the tp 100pips lot on trending. then shud we play on 2 lot the nxt time since the nxt one will hit the sl? i am not very sure when to start with the 1 lot again. its untill we reach the 4 lots? and the 3 lots is each tp at how many pips+1lot no tp? i dont understand how the tp comes into play in the evolutionary
After the first loss, you play with 2 lots. If you win, you start again with 1 lot. After 2 consecutive losses, you play with 4 lots. After you start again with 1 lot.
  • #352
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:16pm Dec 4, 2009 1:16pm
Quoting zebulon
After the first loss, you play with 2 lots. If you win, you start again with 1 lot. After 2 consecutive losses, you play with 4 lots. After you start again with 1 lot.
What happens if 3 losses? Is this a form of martingale?
  • #353
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:42pm Dec 4, 2009 1:42pm
HI there
am al falasi from UAE , Dubai..
I have been trying to figer out how to trade the forex from 2005, sound its betting me to death :!!(..
some tim eam geting it right and some time wrong and in the wrong I lose much !!
what to do please help
  • #354
  • Dec 4, 2009 2:43pm Dec 4, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting DubaiTrader
What happens if 3 losses? Is this a form of martingale?
If you have 3 losses, you take your -200 pips, and start again with 1 lot
  • #355
  • Dec 4, 2009 3:47pm Dec 4, 2009 3:47pm
december updated : today was not a good day, lots of consecutive losses...
Yes we had 3 consecutive losses today and -200 pips.
This happened 9 times since august, but the fact is that evolution system would bring us 5 600 pips since august...

december :
initial method = -100 pips
evolution = -50 pips
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  • #356
  • Edited 10:06pm Dec 4, 2009 9:26pm | Edited 10:06pm
ok i need more clarification.
cos after a win there is bound to be a loss cos the trend doesnt last very long. anyway how far the TP should we put. shud we just put 50 or 100pips

i give an example
now we talk abt the trend. if its two green(before that it was a lost). then i buy 1lot at 1.66 no tp. another lot at 1.66 tp 100 pips. but this uptrend only went up 50 pips to 1.6650. then it went down to 1.66 again. so it went back to 0 pips again. since both nv tp.
ok same let us say now its GRGGGRR? so the nxt trade we must start with how many lots at the question mark? and what is the tp. do we start with 1 again since we already had 1 win?

another example.let us say now its GRGGGGRG? so the nxt trade we must start with how many lots(sequence was loss win loss) but the tp 50 right since its ranging?
  • #357
  • Dec 5, 2009 12:39am Dec 5, 2009 12:39am
Quoting ja5on
ok i need more clarification.
cos after a win there is bound to be a loss cos the trend doesnt last very long. anyway how far the TP should we put. shud we just put 50 or 100pips

i give an example
now we talk abt the trend. if its two green(before that it was a lost). then i buy 1lot at 1.66 no tp. another lot at 1.66 tp 100 pips. but this uptrend only went up 50 pips to 1.6650. then it went down to 1.66 again. so it went back to...
In your example, you had a first loss, and you have 2 G, so you buy 1 lot at 1.66 SL =1.6550 no TP, another lot at 1.66 SL = 1.6550 and TP =1.6650. You save 50 when the price went up and you loose 50 when it went down.

if you have GRGGGRR that means G is a win and R is a loss.
So we have 2 RR and the previous trade was a loss, then we sell with 2 lots (1 lot with TP, 1 lot without TP).

if you have GRGGGGRG, the previous trade was a loss. we play the range (sell) with 2 lots (both lots with TP)
  • #358
  • Dec 5, 2009 10:08am Dec 5, 2009 10:08am
Quoting zebulon
In your example, you had a first loss, and you have 2 G, so you buy 1 lot at 1.66 SL =1.6550 no TP, another lot at 1.66 SL = 1.6550 and TP =1.6650. You save 50 when the price went up and you loose 50 when it went down.

if you have GRGGGRR that means G is a win and R is a loss.
So we have 2 RR and the previous trade was a loss, then we sell with 2 lots (1 lot with TP, 1 lot without TP).

if you have GRGGGGRG,...
thanks alot. hmm. then if the 4 lots. also 3 lots with tp? and 1 lot with no tp? then the tp is always 50 pips only? =D
  • #359
  • Dec 6, 2009 3:47am Dec 6, 2009 3:47am
Yes Ja5on !
  • #360
  • Dec 6, 2009 10:59am Dec 6, 2009 10:59am
Hi Zebulon,

How will you open the trades on Monday? I am confused regarding the pending orders. In my view you have to open at 1.64500 both a short for the trend and a long for the range. What am I missing?

Merci
Herty
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