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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #8,181
  • Dec 3, 2009 1:11pm Dec 3, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting pipfx
Hey N,
I agree with your analysis, but playing this to the downside might be going against the trend - I guess it depends on your risk tolerance.
Not quite sure which trend we're talking about here....

E/j has been in this range for a few months...

Boss 100 still pointing down...

My ten pips

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,182
  • Dec 3, 2009 1:17pm Dec 3, 2009 1:17pm
This can be a fun chart.

Boss is ranging/up. Worker trangle/up is cut in half by that dsri.

Prolly no trade there, just a symbolic chart .

Spinner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eur cad2009-12-03_19-12.jpg Size: 116 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,183
  • Dec 3, 2009 1:37pm Dec 3, 2009 1:37pm
Quoting Spinner
Not quite sure which trend we're talking about here....

E/j has been in this range for a few months...

Boss 100 still pointing down...

My ten pips

Spinner
Good point, actually the toughest part of trading for me is identifying trend. I was looking at the worker 20 pointing up.

The price is trapped between the 20 and 50 and if it closed above it I would take a sign as trend reversal.

If the boss 100 is still pointing down, would it still be considered a down trend? Maybe I need to go back and re-read some old posts.
  • #8,184
  • Dec 3, 2009 2:52pm Dec 3, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting pipfx
Good point, actually the toughest part of trading for me is identifying trend. I was looking at the worker 20 pointing up.

The price is trapped between the 20 and 50 and if it closed above it I would take a sign as trend reversal.

If the boss 100 is still pointing down, would it still be considered a down trend? Maybe I need to go back and re-read some old posts.
Worker price action is LH/LL - keep watching the latest leg..
Wise men say only fools rush in ...
  • #8,185
  • Dec 3, 2009 2:55pm Dec 3, 2009 2:55pm
Well, aud nzd has touched a big S/r price area. I have posted two monthly charts slightly different scale.

Big BOSS: is at the top of a Huge range/downwards triangle. Trend is up.

Boss: Knock, knock, knocking at Heaven's Door.

Worker: Has spent five days there. The 1st of December it boounced up again, from minor sup, that wud have been a buy area, except for the resistance it is going into.

So maybe wait..

Another penny.

Spinner
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud nzd month 22009-12-03_20-42.jpg Size: 128 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud nzd month 2009-12-03_20-38.jpg Size: 123 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud nzd week 2009-12-03_20-37.jpg Size: 132 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud nzd daily2009-12-03_20-36.jpg Size: 115 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,186
  • Dec 3, 2009 3:06pm Dec 3, 2009 3:06pm
Little House on the Prairie is a US TV show from the 70's and 80's that was widely watched about an American settler family in the mid west in the 1800's. A good family show. They show re-runs and for some reason we used to watch it quite regularly.

One of the character's names is Almanzo. A strapping young fellow who wants to court one of said family's daughters. Ok, that's the background.

One day while watching some other show, I saw an actor that looked almost like Almanzo. I have a scary good knack of being able to recognize relatives of people by facial features even having never seen them. So, I said, hey...that could be Almanzo's brother! My wife, who get's tired of me 'guessing' and getting it right called BS on me. We laughed. But now, whenever I say I recognize someone she says "oh, yes...that must also be Almozo's brother". Sarcastically of course.

So, I'm looking at EURNZD and if today's candle finishes without breaking the bottom of yesterday's we'll have a confirmed swing low and a qualified entry.

However, technically, this isn't a true Strat Stress Free Beginner Trade because it isn't a trend reversal candle and it isn't right at support. But according to Dr. Joe...it's going up because it stopped going down with today's candle.

Secondly it looks an awful lot like Almonzo's brother, Mr. Wobble.

I'm torn between not being gun shy and just trading a qualified signal at today's close or paying attention to what appear to be repeated almost identical patterns of the past.

The SL on this is very tight so the risk is minimal but I want to be clear; I'm not trying to create a trade out of nothing, I would honestly like some feedback on how some of the other experienced traders view this so I can learn from this particular situation.

I've also looked at EURUSD and NZDUSD and considered those in relation but for the sake of this chart alone, if possible, let's just limit comments to EURNZD and not it's components.

-m
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,187
  • Dec 3, 2009 3:54pm Dec 3, 2009 3:54pm
Hi mistandifer
I already have an up trendline drawn on the rule of four:
Low, High, Higher low, Higher High.
Your down trendline may prove correct, who knows?
For me, i'm awaiting further pa, and a retrace.

Regards
  • #8,188
  • Dec 3, 2009 3:57pm Dec 3, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting strat
Pretty powerful stuff!
Thank you, Strat. There seem to be so many variables to remember. I see that now that you bring it up. You make it appear so second nature...I suppose 17 years will do that.
  • #8,189
  • Dec 3, 2009 3:59pm Dec 3, 2009 3:59pm
Quoting golfer27
Hi mistandifer
I already have an up trendline drawn on the rule of four:
Low, High, Higher low, Higher High.
Your down trendline may prove correct, who knows?
For me, i'm awaiting further pa, and a retrace.

Regards
Thanks golfer. I agree on the HH HL. My line is just a short term DSRI. The main focus was on the wobbles in the highlighted areas on the chart and their similarity to today and yesterday. That's all.
  • #8,190
  • Dec 3, 2009 5:20pm Dec 3, 2009 5:20pm
Quoting mstandifer
... The main focus was on the wobbles in the highlighted areas on the chart and their similarity to today and yesterday. That's all.
But those wobbles took place when there was a steep downtrend. Now we are talking about "possible" trend change. If you have 2.12 SR on your chart (minor on my chart, 2.13 is more major), you can wait for it, because next major SR is at 2.25. Watching PA at 2.07 is crucial, IMO.
  • #8,191
  • Dec 3, 2009 6:11pm Dec 3, 2009 6:11pm
Quoting mstandifer
Little House on the Prairie is a US TV show from the 70's and 80's that was widely watched about an American settler family in the mid west in the 1800's. A good family show. They show re-runs and for some reason we used to watch it quite regularly.

One of the character's names is Almanzo. A strapping young fellow who wants to court one of said family's daughters. Ok, that's the background.

One day while watching some other show, I saw an actor that looked almost like Almanzo. I have a scary good knack of being able to recognize relatives of...
Hi mstandifer,

These two candles are a pause at support and that is good, it has shown some respect to support level. An entry now is a little early, we need a bold candle. I would like today candle to take out the last two candles low and close near the high. If today candle opens and takes off, I will pass. There is another setup. I would like it to go up because I still have a position on euraud.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd.12-2-09.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #8,192
  • Edited 8:14pm Dec 3, 2009 8:12pm | Edited 8:14pm
"oh, yes...that must also be Almozo's brother".


The Yen crosses pictured above would then be the Almozo quadruplets ?
  • #8,193
  • Dec 3, 2009 9:42pm Dec 3, 2009 9:42pm
Anyone watching this one?

Other than NFP tomorrow it looks like a good short.

Daily closed below 1.6600 and the 20

weekly is a bit undecided and the the monthly has a shooting star although not the prettiest.
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  • #8,194
  • Dec 3, 2009 11:02pm Dec 3, 2009 11:02pm
With respect to the dollar crosses, I believe its a crapshoot right now. Having intensely watched the NZDUSD for 2 months now, I am growing tired of it and its two stupid shooting stars on the monthly. (Break dammit!!)

Check out the chart below it may give a better indication of the direction of the crosses in my opinion.
Attached Image
  • #8,195
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:06am Dec 4, 2009 1:06am
Hi
I have been watching this pair. Keen to get a trade on this one as well!
However I see a number of problems with this trade at the moment
1. The monthly is sitting on support at 1.6386
2. The weekly is also on support at 1.6386
3. Even if it does trade lower, a 50 50 bet, the difference if not enough at 0.0174
4. Whist it could go lower I don't see this as a stress free trade and I can't
see that it has shown which direction it is going to go in.
5. So back to sleep again.
Thanks for posting it however, it gives me a chance, right or wrong, to cotribute something.
  • #8,196
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:37am Dec 4, 2009 1:37am
Quoting stgeorge
Hi
I have been watching this pair. Keen to get a trade on this one as well!
However I see a number of problems with this trade at the moment
1. The monthly is sitting on support at 1.6386
2....

I decided not to take it because of NFP.

I liked the daily line chart as well but just not feeling like taking on the added risk of NFP.
  • #8,197
  • Dec 4, 2009 2:22am Dec 4, 2009 2:22am
I have read so many pages my mind has gone numb.
But I can't remember any general comments on entering trades part way through the cycle. Apart from accumulating more on a retrace.
Obviously it is high risk, but if you see that all the three Boss signals are green is it sensible to enter a trade in the right direction at anytime in the cycle ( assuming there is room to move between any support or any resistance) or should one aways wait for another retrace to enter?
  • #8,198
  • Dec 4, 2009 3:10am Dec 4, 2009 3:10am
Quoting stgeorge
I have read so many pages my mind has gone numb.
But I can't remember any general comments on entering trades part way through the cycle. Apart from accumulating more on a retrace.
Obviously it is high risk, but if you see that all the three Boss signals are green is it sensible to enter a trade in the right direction at anytime in the cycle ( assuming there is room to move between any support or any resistance) or should one aways wait for another retrace to enter?
In other threads there are traders who enter on the retrace of bars but here in strat's thread we do not.

I feel like there may be a time and place in ones trading career to do these kinds of things but where we are right now on our path we need to stick to the rules and put our time in on the charts. After years of trading experience decisions like this will be second nature as far as what to do.

Just my thoughts,


Craig
  • #8,199
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:14pm Dec 4, 2009 1:14pm
How are your UJ longs paying

It's about time right!
  • #8,200
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:14pm Dec 4, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting Blackeagle
But those wobbles took place when there was a steep downtrend. Now we are talking about "possible" trend change. If you have 2.12 SR on your chart (minor on my chart, 2.13 is more major), you can wait for it, because next major SR is at 2.25. Watching PA at 2.07 is crucial, IMO.
Thank you for pointing out the 'possible' part. I see now where you got your 2.13 going back and looking at the weekly.

I'm guessing your call to wait on a confirmation at 2.13 would make said confirmation more meaningful given that level is Major and that the turnaround had more credibility.
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