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AUD/USD

  • #10,601
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:33pm Dec 2, 2009 4:33pm
I read the previous threads... question answered
  • #10,602
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:33pm Dec 2, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting Mckal41
Hi tradeaholic I am looking .9200 - .9223 for support I think the consensus is universal
should be a decline
Amyc...here is a crazy question do you only trade on the buy?

No i trade both long and short but i only trade high probability moves, there are no more of them this week for me. But I have actually just broken my own rules and taken a small short on the aud, probabily won't pay off now.
  • #10,603
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:35pm Dec 2, 2009 4:35pm
Quoting amyc
No i trade both long and short but i only trade high probability moves, there are no more of them this week for me. But I have actually just broken my own rules and taken a small short on the aud, probabily won't pay off now.
its ok to break the rules once in a while you never know you might just be surprised !!
  • #10,604
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:38pm Dec 2, 2009 4:38pm
I think the short will pay off , there is major news in a few hours generally everyone dumps their trades so as not to get caught , then re enter once the trade is established
  • #10,605
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:43pm Dec 2, 2009 4:43pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I think kiwi is a good sell here with stops over 7330 but wtf do I know today...

Kiwi led the way with an initial drop that I have been waiting about 36 hours for. It should drop further today but the monkeywrench is NFP. A low number will probably send kiwi through my stops.

Sell rallies today, take some profits and lighten up on risk before NFP is my way to go...

Market still has the gap to fill at 7095
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #10,606
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:50pm Dec 2, 2009 4:50pm
Good MAE traders.

Rumbles from the Fed last night that they will not "inflate away" their debt obligations. We will see Mr USA, where the hell are you gonna pull 60% of your GDP to pay it off? USD/JPY tells the opposite story to the Fed. USD is already super weak against one of their biggest lenders, smells like debt inflation to me...might not be long before we see a reversal there, imo JPY is fundamentally much weaker than USD.

Here are the AUD and NZD 4cast outs for today, still waiting to see what forexlive has to say

* 02 Dec 09: 22:13(NYC) - FX NOW! AUD/USD, Gold Flows - AUD little changed, but finding support

AUD/USD touched highs just shy of 0.9300 while the S&P futures reached a new 2009 high, but the move stalled and USD short covering at the 16:00gmt fixing sent AUD back to 0.9250. Later in the N.Am afternoon, a dip in equities was coincident with a Reuters report of Fitch's downgrade of Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group that pulled AUD to 0.9230. However, while Gold prices held up above USD1200 and near highs, AUD managed to outperform on most of its crosses and helped keep AUD/USD nearly unchanged at 0.9250. Looking ahead, Australian retail sales are due with 4cast expecting a result on the firmer side of the market that would also offer AUD support. SI

* 02 Dec 09: 21:44(SYD) - FX NOW! NZD/USD, AUD/NZD Flows - kiwi incurs the wrath of sell recommendations

The kiwi dollar suffered more than most during the afternoon US session, evidenced by the steady climb in AUD/NZD from the low 1.27s up through 1.28. While its tempting to view the latter's latest climb in the context of an approaching RBNZ meeting that should highlight the contrast between the current policy dispositions of the two Antipodean central banks, the reality looks to have been the self-fulfilling prophecy that was the kiwi sell recommendation issued by a major US investment bank (vs. GBP - GBP/NZD rallied over 2 big figures). Our own short NZD preference has been vs. NOK - established on Nov 12 and currently 2.5% in the money (e-mail [email protected] if you would like a trial of our new GMCM publication which details this). NZ commodity prices due at 02:00gmt should be strong thanks to milk prices but we doubt will register on the NZD FX scales. RA

With the upper confines of yesterdays wedge stuck squarely in yesterdays session zone we can be pretty safe to assume there will be no re-test today which also makes the 23.6 fib (0.929 zone) to be pretty strong upside resistance. Bold players could short from the Tokyo open with stops above.

Biggest area of interest for me today is the huge support confluence: monthly pivot+50% fib+daily S3, could definitely be on the cards today. Watch for a break of NY EOD range and the early Tokyo hourly breaks for clues.

Yesterday ended as a bearish looking doji it seems so there is definite possibility for trend reversal from here, but todays close will be the only way to confirm or deny.

Red line: 'cos y'all know what I'm waiting for!
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  • #10,607
  • Edited 5:03pm Dec 2, 2009 4:50pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting Mckal41
Hi tradeaholic I am looking .9200 - .9223 for support I think the consensus is universal
should be a decline
Amyc...here is a crazy question do you only trade on the buy?
I trade mainly longs as my broker CMC doesnt like shorts for some reason. I have mentioned this before on this thread. When there is a sell off CMC just widens the spread and delays, doesnt pass on all the pips like they should. Just keeps the price at a certain level till it comes back up and then goes up accordingly. I know it sucks......
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,608
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:19pm Dec 2, 2009 6:19pm
Doesn't look very bearish to me, looks like we will see 9320 first.
  • #10,609
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:22pm Dec 2, 2009 6:22pm
will just have to weather the storm
  • #10,610
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:27pm Dec 2, 2009 6:27pm
The problem i see with shorts is the dollar index, its currently sitting in a very bearish position and needs to get past 74.86 before shorts have much hope in my opinion. We'll have to see when it reopens.
  • #10,611
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:29pm Dec 2, 2009 6:29pm
Quoting amyc
Doesn't look very bearish to me, looks like we will see 9320 first.
Such a strong run up into retail sales news in 4 minutes...gaps the whole way up on my ECN charts (even last night during NY).

I did not see anything to indicate a large amount of buyers from last nights lows.

Could be a buy the rumour sell the fact type scenario about to play out. I am watching, not playing yet. Waiting for market to show its hand.
  • #10,612
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:35pm Dec 2, 2009 6:35pm
Has anyone ever used or tested Forex EA Shark 5.0 Ultimate automatic trading system ? I would be interested to know how it worked for you ?
  • #10,613
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:35pm Dec 2, 2009 6:35pm
Quoting sinner-
Such a strong run up into retail sales news in 4 minutes...gaps the whole way up on my ECN charts (even last night during NY).

I did not see anything to indicate a large amount of buyers from last nights lows.

Could be a buy the rumour sell the fact type scenario about to play out. I am watching, not playing yet. Waiting for market to show its hand.
Agree with you there 100% gone short 9285 expect 9230s or so. Retails figures were lower than forecast so should be ok for short but never know....
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,614
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:46pm Dec 2, 2009 6:46pm
Quoting tradoholic
Agree with you there 100% gone short 9285 expect 9230s or so. Retails figures were lower than forecast so should be ok for short but never know....
Up to you bro, I would put stops above RBA selling zone which is at 9325. Prefer to short other pairs today.

Quote
The problem i see with shorts is the dollar index, its currently sitting in a very bearish position and needs to get past 74.86 before shorts have much hope in my opinion. We'll have to see when it reopens.

DX very bearish I agree. I don't mind buying USD when they are cheap, just against the right currency
  • #10,615
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:50pm Dec 2, 2009 6:50pm
$1224 on goldy.

wowza
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #10,616
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:52pm Dec 2, 2009 6:52pm
Quoting TexasforEX
$1224 on goldy.

wowza
1227 may stop it for a bit, but i won't be testing it with a short
  • #10,617
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:54pm Dec 2, 2009 6:54pm
Quoting amyc
1227 may stop it for a bit, but i won't be testing it with a short

No chance. I own a fair amount of gold and miners. Gold is a buy and hold for me. I am not smart enough to juggle (day trade) that grenade.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #10,618
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:57pm Dec 2, 2009 6:57pm
[quote=sinner-;3277379]Up to you bro, I would put stops above RBA selling zone which is at 9325. Prefer to short other pairs today.

I agree, I might have jumped the gun a bit, I added more at 9292. If trend doesnt change soon, will get out. SL 9330,
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,619
  • Dec 2, 2009 7:06pm Dec 2, 2009 7:06pm
I'm still holding my Longs, the trend is UP as fas as .92300 holds , I put some EW count of Gold , might be useful to clear the pic,
boring week so far, I hope NFP on Fri gives us some action
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  • #10,620
  • Dec 2, 2009 7:06pm Dec 2, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting sinner-
I don't mind buying USD when they are cheap, just against the right currency
For example, I just bought some U/J, with gold going up the way it is, might be a great day for synthetic AUD/JPY longs.
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