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AUD/USD

  • #10,541
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:06pm Dec 1, 2009 8:06pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Is there anyone shorting GOLD at the moment or are we expecting it to go even higher ?
Yeah, sure, if I want a headache, I'll short gold Just broke $1,200, went back the tested in on 5 minute chart, then took off. G_Man likes to short gold.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #10,542
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:09pm Dec 1, 2009 8:09pm
Quoting Patience
Yeah, sure, if I want a headache, I'll short gold Just broke $1,200, went back the tested in on 5 minute chart, then took off. G_Man likes to short gold.
I shorted gold at 1208
  • #10,543
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:09pm Dec 1, 2009 8:09pm
Thanks for that sinner

Like alot of people here I am only new to forex and just trying to learn, so any help is appreciated.
Regardless of your negative comments toward me I do respect your veiws/analysis.



Cheers
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get
  • #10,544
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:12pm Dec 1, 2009 8:12pm
Quoting Daytrader74
I shorted gold at 1208
Jack be nimble, Jack be quick - you have got guts. Best of luck to you (and I do mean it).
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #10,545
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:14pm Dec 1, 2009 8:14pm
Quoting Patience
Jack be nimble, Jack be quick - you have got guts. Best of luck to you (and I do mean it).
Why? thank you!
  • #10,546
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:27pm Dec 1, 2009 8:27pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Why? thank you!
Sorry, were you asking me why? Can I ask your reasons for shorting? What target are you looking for?
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #10,547
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:30pm Dec 1, 2009 8:30pm
Quoting Patience
Sorry, were you asking me why? Can I ask your reasons for shorting? What target are you looking for?
Well apart from my analysis of the charts, it has been going up for quiet a while now and what goes up must come down and when it does it comes down harder and faster than it did on the way up...
My target TP is 1200
  • #10,548
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:33pm Dec 1, 2009 8:33pm
State of play for A/U as of the Nikkei lunch break:

Still holding longs, todays freshly added position at 9267 with a 30 pip stop. Buy stops at 92702 and 92786 yet to be filled. Oops, as I type the position at 92702 has been filled.

This hourly candle formation is extremely bullish in my view, could be the signal leading to a blow off style top.
Attached Image
  • #10,549
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:43pm Dec 1, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Well apart from my analysis of the charts, it has been going up for quiet a while now and what goes up must come down and when it does it comes down harder and faster than it did on the way up...
My target TP is 1200
Okay, thanks. Just thought it might have hit some major pivot resistance or fib extension or something that I wasn't aware of. I like to read the reason behind someone's trade.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #10,550
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:47pm Dec 1, 2009 8:47pm
If a formation forms in the forest and nobody is around to see it...
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  • #10,551
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:11pm Dec 1, 2009 9:11pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Long term trend line was violated which was followed by a lower low and a lower high. I dunno what to call it cause I'm just a silly Texan but I know it "ain't doin what it twas before"

Anywho, I sincerely hope no one makes a trade because I posted something. I hope my posts are thought provoking.

Scalpin, don't be confrontational in your posts bud. If everyone had the same view there would be no market. It's a given that traders see things differently.
Hi Texasforex,

im short also on this pair and i will add some short on the area of 9320 (if go there) look at your H4 time frame, you will see some area resistance...
let we see............
Trade with the momentum
  • #10,552
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:20pm Dec 1, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting sailor68
Hi Texasforex,

im short also on this pair and i will add some short on the area of 9320 (if go there) look at your H4 time frame, you will see some area resistance...
let we see............

Hi Sailor,

A run up to 9320 could be viewed as a continuing formation of the right shoulder. Any head and shoulder experts out there? Sinner?

Best of luck to us both.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #10,553
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:38pm Dec 1, 2009 9:38pm
Hi Tex, can you post a chart, I'm having trouble identifying the pattern you are talking about. Nothing sticks out to me on any timeframe as a shampoo so I am worried you have picked a bad pattern.
  • #10,554
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:44pm Dec 1, 2009 9:44pm
My analysis is down from 9280
  • #10,555
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:45pm Dec 1, 2009 9:45pm
Quoting sinner-
Hi Tex, can you post a chart, I'm having trouble identifying the pattern you are talking about. Nothing sticks out to me on any timeframe as a shampoo so I am worried you have picked a bad pattern.
I am basing my short aussies on 9275ish holding as a swing high. If price runs up to 9320 what are your thoughts on a shampoo formation?

I am also basing the shorts on what I see in the kiwi, usdx and s&p charts too.
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"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #10,556
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:45pm Dec 1, 2009 9:45pm
Quoting sinner-
Hi Tex, can you post a chart, I'm having trouble identifying the pattern you are talking about. Nothing sticks out to me on any timeframe as a shampoo so I am worried you have picked a bad pattern.
I think I can see what he is talking about on the 4H chart
  • #10,557
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:47pm Dec 1, 2009 9:47pm
Alright guys,

Even though the market is starting to look more bullish with E/J over 131.4 giving E/U some room to fly, I am DONE for the day. Took a bit of effort, and 3 positions on the market, but I took 20 pips (aggregate long from 3 diff positions exit at 92785) and am happy with that. That last position was a bit of a fizzle because I didn't let it run.

We can break higher or stop and reverse or whatever, I don't care anymore, because I have taken some for myself and left yesterdays positions on the market with loss locked out. That is great for me as it means I can spend this afternoon hanging with mates and walking the dog instead of trading London!
  • #10,558
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:55pm Dec 1, 2009 9:55pm
Thanks for all the insight
your knowledge base is amazing
  • #10,559
  • Dec 1, 2009 10:01pm Dec 1, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting sinner-
If a formation forms in the forest and nobody is around to see it...
Hi sinner.. nice chart, what software are you using for that?


cheers!
  • #10,560
  • Dec 1, 2009 10:02pm Dec 1, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I am basing my short aussies on 9275ish holding as a swing high. If price runs up to 9320 what are your thoughts on a shampoo formation?

I am also basing the shorts on what I see in the kiwi, usdx and s&p charts too.
Quoting TexasforEX
I am basing my short aussies on 9275ish holding as a swing high. If price runs up to 9320 what are your thoughts on a shampoo formation?
Alright I saw that and was going to add a chart with label "is this supposed to be the head?" hehehe.

Basically, this formation has none of the earmarks of a distribution pattern which is what shampoo is supposed to indicate. That's not to say January won't be bear city...but distribution does not look like this chart. You can see what poor shampoo interpretation can cause with GBPUSD, it is already well back into the range of what should have been shoulder (i.e. final market inflection point). I have highlighted area in a yellow box which causes concern for me from a bearish perspective. Reasoning: this is a daily close and proceeding daily open outside the probability of distribution having occurred (red dotted line). The drop from the yellow box could just be a market breather (retrace) before attacking that zone again for an upside break.

For this to be a shampoo, and for it to be even remotely valid, that red dotted line must be respected like all hell.

My issues with this being labelled shampoo:
* head does not run significantly above either shoulder (not even 30%)
* demand ran in before a lower low could be created (should've created parallel lower red dotted line support formation)
* CCI bear div did not produce lower low and followed by hidden bull div to move back above 0 line: CCI breakout could occur to the upside of that yellow box.

I think the only way you are going to get a clear cut answer to your question Tex (sorry I couldn't do better) is to see how today and tomorrow close out. If we are back at 9320 interbank will try and push stops which will take us higher.
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