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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #21,521
  • Nov 30, 2009 12:30pm Nov 30, 2009 12:30pm
Hey guys, I am looking forward to short the e/j at the close of the 16:00-20:00 candle, we have a tc situation with a strong bearish engulfing candle. what do you thing guys, is this a good signal or a good signal?!
  • #21,522
  • Nov 30, 2009 2:25pm Nov 30, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting Pipmaniac
Hey guys, I am looking forward to short the e/j at the close of the 16:00-20:00 candle, we have a tc situation with a strong bearish engulfing candle. what do you thing guys, is this a good signal or a good signal?!
I may be wrong but I am not sure that candle meets my definition of bearish engulfing. It looks kind of sickly and although you need to see how it closes, I would expect some whipsaw. I personally wouldn't risk my money on it.

Hope that helps a little. To not have a position is a position. Look for A or A+ setups.
  • #21,523
  • Nov 30, 2009 3:16pm Nov 30, 2009 3:16pm
Quoting calderone
I may be wrong but I am not sure that candle meets my definition of bearish engulfing. It looks kind of sickly and although you need to see how it closes, I would expect some whipsaw. I personally wouldn't risk my money on it.

Hope that helps a little. To not have a position is a position. Look for A or A+ setups.
You mean sickly cause of the dots? Could u explain this more in detail?
I mean the close of the signal candle is below of the bodies of the last two small candles, so what is the matter with it?
  • #21,524
  • Nov 30, 2009 3:40pm Nov 30, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting Pipmaniac
You mean sickly cause of the dots? Could u explain this more in detail?
I mean the close of the signal candle is below of the bodies of the last two small candles, so what is the matter with it?
you are talking about the bar which closed at 20.00 cet (german time), right?

imho, this is a DBHLC (double high low close) bar.
and for me, the wick is far to long to risk any money. it like to see this bar with a close nearly at the bottom (nearly no wick).
look where this bar finds support. it's at a round number, 129.00. from there it retraces about 50 pips.

you are right about the macd.
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #21,525
  • Nov 30, 2009 3:44pm Nov 30, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting Pipmaniac
You mean sickly cause of the dots? Could u explain this more in detail?
I mean the close of the signal candle is below of the bodies of the last two small candles, so what is the matter with it?
It is an engulfing in the sense that the wick engulfs previous candles but the main body is not engulfing(although it engulfs the spinner). It did go up and test the 21 ema and was rejected. I like to see a bearish engulfing candle that has less shadow at the bottom and top. Just my own likes-please take it with a grain of salt. The current candle is closing as an inside bar.

The way I see it is a 50% chance either way. Not the best trading conditions. Good luck to you with whatever you decide. I am more interested in the box range of u/j.
  • #21,526
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:03am Dec 1, 2009 12:03am
Quoting Pipmaniac
Hey guys, I am looking forward to short the e/j at the close of the 16:00-20:00 candle, we have a tc situation with a strong bearish engulfing candle. what do you thing guys, is this a good signal or a good signal?!
Hi Pipmaniac,

Sorry this is well after the fact - I've only just jumped online and seen your post. But, was just wanting to add a couple of my thoughts to what has been said....things that have helped me reduce my loosing trades.

I know this is not the way Phillip tends to trade, but I always look at the Daily charts (only closed bars of course) before trading 4hr, just to give me a heads up on what is going on. Daily patterns hold more weight than 4hr and so can give you a 'caution' or 'go ahead' on a 4hr trade.

On the daily, I have a large pin bar with significant tail to the downside. Price is well clear of the 8ema and this helps confirm that there is a high chance of a test of 8, if not the 21. This for me is an immediate caution/no trade situation. Also, the bar following the pin is a doji (I know this is a Sunday bar and is only 3-4hrs duration total, but I've found this is still totally valid) - if you have a look back to a couple of my recent posts, I've found that a pin bar followed by a doji has very high chances of a movement back to the 8/21. These give great trading (buying in this case) opportunities and if I traded the daily charts I would have bought here, with 21 being the target.

Daily charts aside, to me the 4hr has lost its smoothness. There was quite of bit of bar overlap over the last 5 or so candles before the TC signal - another beware indication. The best setups are where PA is nice and smooth, without bars all jumbled up together. Still, for me, the real concern I would have had with this trade was due to the daily setup.

Hope this helps in some way.
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  • #21,527
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:43am Dec 1, 2009 3:43am
Nobody took the long eurusd trade ?
MACD Zero Bounce + Pin bar on S/R, i saw it too late.
  • #21,528
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:45am Dec 1, 2009 6:45am
Quoting djmanu
Nobody took the long eurusd trade ?
MACD Zero Bounce + Pin bar on S/R, i saw it too late.
Yes, I'm currently holding a long position on the Eur. Will post later
  • #21,529
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:48am Dec 1, 2009 6:48am
Quoting Morelands
Yes, I'm currently holding a long position on the Eur. Will post later
Nice job! I missed it, was too busy with the BOJ propaganda. lol Looking forward to your post.
  • #21,530
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:43pm Dec 1, 2009 2:43pm
Here's my trade for the day for only 20 pips. That is like 3 pips/hr...snore. The daily chart shows why I was looking for a long trade. Price is still in an uptrend. Candle 1 is a strong bullish candle that broke though stong resistance b/t 1.5 and 1.51. Candle #3 confirmed my long bias. Now I look for a TC on the 4 hr which occurred this morning, second chart. The 3rd chart shows the hourly and why I exited. One of the 2 candle is a hanging man and I forget what the other one is called, but 2 tails up like that told me to get out, plus the really slow pace of the trade. I was shooting for 1.5143, the high of the previous bullish daily candle. I guess 20 pips is better than nothing and/or a loss.

Edit: If anyone has backtested the 1 hr and agrees or disagrees with my exit, please share your opinion
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  • #21,531
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:34pm Dec 1, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting Morelands
Here's my trade for the day for only 20 pips. That is like 3 pips/hr...snore. The daily chart shows why I was looking for a long trade. Price is still in an uptrend. Candle 1 is a strong bullish candle that broke though stong resistance b/t 1.5 and 1.51. Candle #3 confirmed my long bias. Now I look for a TC on the 4 hr which occurred this morning, second chart. The 3rd chart shows the hourly and why I exited. One of the 2 candle is a hanging man and I forget what the other one is called, but 2 tails up like that told me to get out, plus the really...
Pips are pips. Crazy market it seems.
  • #21,532
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:11pm Dec 1, 2009 4:11pm
Quoting Morelands
Here's my trade for the day for only 20 pips. That is like 3 pips/hr...snore. The daily chart shows why I was looking for a long trade. Price is still in an uptrend. Candle 1 is a strong bullish candle that broke though stong resistance b/t 1.5 and 1.51. Candle #3 confirmed my long bias. Now I look for a TC on the 4 hr which occurred this morning, second chart. The 3rd chart shows the hourly and why I exited. One of the 2 candle is a hanging man and I forget what the other one is called, but 2 tails up like that told me to get out, plus the really...
Morlen, could you tell us where was your SL ?

shabbir
  • #21,533
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:27pm Dec 1, 2009 6:27pm
Quoting gujjubond
Morlen, could you tell us where was your SL ?

shabbir
My virtual stop was below the indicating candle/ the TC candle/1.5018. However, I put my stop at real stop at 1.4972. The reason I do this is the same reason Welshguy does his this way. The candle pattern will take me out of the trade and not the price. I have been caught too many time with price just hitting my SL and then moving more in my original intended direction...and it really ticked me off. However, I don't put my SL as far away as Welshguy on days when I am at work b/c I can only make it back to my computer every 45 min to 1 hr. I'm also behind a firewall at work, so it can be difficult to change my SL and take profit.
  • #21,534
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:34pm Dec 1, 2009 6:34pm
Quoting Morelands
My virtual stop was below the indicating candle/ the TC candle/1.5018. However, I put my stop at real stop at 1.4972. The reason I do this is the same reason Welshguy does his this way. The candle pattern will take me out of the trade and not the price. I have been caught too many time with price just hitting my SL and then moving more in my original intended direction...and it really ticked me off. However, I don't put my SL as far away as Welshguy on days when I am at work b/c I can only make it back to my computer every 45 min to 1 hr. I'm also...
Very wise. I used to have stops hit only to see the trade turn around. I will take myself out if a candle pattern with follow through tells me I'm done.
  • #21,535
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:15pm Dec 1, 2009 7:15pm
Just to set the record straight. The reason I am telling people this is so that people make up there own minds on when to trade. I had a very good summer (approx 4 months), increasing my balance on my account by 50%. However, I got over confident and thought I could see where the market was going before the candles would indicate a trade. As a result over a month period of time I blew my 50% and started from the beginning. I'm still working on becoming consistantly profitable, over the coming years. Again, the reason I am telling people this is so they don't follow my trades when I post them. I've only been doing this for 2 yrs and still have a lot to learn, mostly about myself and my I reacttions to trading. I'm trading live, but I'm only betting .5 to 1% of my account. My goal in the first year of live trading was to survive and I have done that. My goal over the next year is to become profitable on a CONSISTANT basis. I'm not usually a very verbal person by nature, but an honest one who wants to tell everyone several things. One, this takes a lot of work. Two, those who survive are those who are peristant and when they fall down pick themselves back up again, again, and again. Do not follow others trade...they may be just as confused as you. Anyways, that is about it.
Raymond
  • #21,536
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:33pm Dec 1, 2009 7:33pm
Quoting Morelands
Just to set the record straight. The reason I am telling people this is so that people make up there own minds on when to trade. I had a very good summer (approx 4 months), increasing my balance on my account by 50%. However, I got over confident and thought I could see where the market was going before the candles would indicate a trade. As a result over a month period of time I blew my 50% and started from the beginning. I'm still working on becoming consistantly profitable, over the coming years. Again, the reason I am telling people this is...
I commend you for being so honest to help everyone out. You have paid your dues and graduated. I am a full time trader and do not post my trades very much if at all. I posted here recently on a trade after the fact. I would not want to give a signal and have someone blow there account because the market didn't work out etc. I learned that the key to survival is money management. I use smaller positions and adjust accordingly. I know that you will make it back, just pace yourself and keep up the hard work.

It is possible to make a living doing this but you have to work hard. The hard turns to intense as you get better and you find a balance.

I wish everyone that reads this all the best.
  • #21,537
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:34pm Dec 1, 2009 7:34pm
Quoting Morelands
Here's my trade for the day
Nicely managed trade Raymond

Will be interesting to see what happens with E/U from here. If it can hold above that symmetrical triangle, you'd hope there would be a good run to the topside. I'm on the lookout for another TC long.

And if it breaks down through the triangle...?? I've noticed that if price breaks/closes back down past the centre line (dashed line) then it tends to confirm a false break upwards and price will tend to continue falling. SL placed 10-15 pips above the centre line seems to hold well (trade entry on candle close below centre line).I don't trade these setups live yet, but they rarely fail from what I've seen. Has anyone else got ideas on triangle false breaks? I'm definitely interested to understand more on these.
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  • #21,538
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:56pm Dec 1, 2009 7:56pm
Quoting Morelands
Just to set the record straight. The reason I am telling people this is so that people make up there own minds on when to trade. I had a very good summer (approx 4 months), increasing my balance on my account by 50%. However, I got over confident and thought I could see where the market was going before the candles would indicate a trade. As a result over a month period of time I blew my 50% and started from the beginning. I'm still working on becoming consistantly profitable, over the coming years. Again, the reason I am telling people this is...
Wow what a great result on your 4 months - congratulations! You're so right that it takes a lot of work. I've also been working hard at this for 2 1/2 years. It seems the process starts with total confusion (how can Phillip and others pick the market so consistently?); then seeing it might be possible; then knowing it's possible but having no clue of how to do it yourself. Somewhere along the way you start to know you can actually be successful yourself with time and even more study....and its taken me a long time from that point to actually seeing some small consistent profits. They are not easily earned.

Hopefully we can all learn from each other by critiquing and by posting some of our own trade ideas for people to comment on. Sometimes I feel like I'm reinventing the wheel when it would be way easier to learn from other peoples success and mistakes.
  • #21,539
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:08pm Dec 1, 2009 8:08pm
Seems to be very interesting situation on the cable right now.
Amazing how the 2nd 'W' is almost identical to the 1st...does this suggest another drop is on its way to mirror the drops right after the first 2 white arrows???
I've entered a small experimental sell postion. I like the potential 3 sisters (if it forms it will be an early entry for 3 little sisters on the daily charts as well). I also have a yet-to-be-confirmed trendline (the white one) acting as potential resistance, as well as my resistance line at 1.6651.

Comments?
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  • #21,540
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:11pm Dec 1, 2009 8:11pm
It was great. I was like 23/25 trades, mostly 5 min trades and I thought I owned the markets. I bumped my percent $ trading signficantly and I proceeded to lose the next 4+ trades. Ouch, it hurt. My confidence went way down. I worked so hard for so long and it was gone just like that. What an education, something I had to learn the hard way.

Edit: BenStevo, I have never studied triangles, so I can't help you out
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