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  • #10,521
  • Dec 1, 2009 5:54pm Dec 1, 2009 5:54pm
Just a quick post about how medium term trading can be difficult. Here I am holding aussie, kiwi and pound shorts. I am also holding S&P shorts. The sentiment on all the "news" channels is decidely bullish and anti dollar. It's times like these that my experience becomes invaluable. I have been there before.

In one of her books, Connie Brown jokes about the "Time" contra indicator. It was when Time magazine was still important and a big bear appeared on the cover (I forget the date, sometime in the 70's). It market the bottom of the stock market. I'm not saying anything that any seasoned trader doesn't know, just ramblin....
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #10,522
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:00pm Dec 1, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Just a quick post about how medium term trading can be difficult....
Hi,
Why would you be holding shorts when the trend for AUD has been clearly up for the last 24 hours ?
  • #10,523
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:03pm Dec 1, 2009 6:03pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Hi,
Why would you be holding shorts when the trend for AUD has been clearly up for the last 24 hours ?

Evening,
First off, 19 hours does not make a trend. I have posted before about how I view the Aud/usd chart as broken. The long term uptrend has been violated and it was violated right below where I think the S&P is going to stall. This is a basic example of symmetry in my views that equities are going to pull back soon and the USD will rally sharply in the next 8 weeks or so.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #10,524
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:11pm Dec 1, 2009 6:11pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Evening,
First off, 19 hours does not make a trend. I have posted before about how I view the Aud/usd chart as broken. The long term uptrend has been violated and it was violated right below where I think the S&P is going to stall. This is a basic example of symmetry in my views that equities are going to pull back soon and the USD will rally sharply in the next 8 weeks or so.
Well I follow your comments with great interest...and its always great to see what other think, by the way gold is about to reach 1200 again!
  • #10,525
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:20pm Dec 1, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Evening,
First off, 19 hours does not make a trend. I have posted before about how I view the Aud/usd chart as broken. The long term uptrend has been violated and it was violated right below where I think the S&P is going to stall. This is a basic example of symmetry in my views that equities are going to pull back soon and the USD will rally sharply in the next 8 weeks or so.
Well done and I admire your ability to stand by your thought and belief. In my case, I normally take two positions on two accounts. One is long term that I either buy or sell but keep for long term, the other I use charting software for sculping whenever I can sit down and work. So it really doesnt matter what price, where, what instrument, what trend etc. So far as I make my daily pips on the charts I am ok.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,526
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:27pm Dec 1, 2009 6:27pm
Morning long orders for NZDUSD filled at 0.72714, charts still to come, very busy this morning.
  • #10,527
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:38pm Dec 1, 2009 6:38pm
I am only new to all this, but from what I have learnt the daily up trend has most definately not been broken and the only way is up until the Fed starts to mention rate hikes, then its back to 80's for AUD
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get
  • #10,528
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:41pm Dec 1, 2009 6:41pm
Don't forget the Dec rally in equities that normally happens, this would drag AUD with it
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get
  • #10,529
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:49pm Dec 1, 2009 6:49pm
Quoting Scalpin
Don't forget the Dec rally in equities that normally happens, this would drag AUD with it
This sort of speculation is useless.

I am more interested in the fact that this morning neither N/U or E/U is matching A/U for a break of yesterdays NY highs (so far) and A/Us breakneck approach to weekly R1 at 92819.
  • #10,530
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:55pm Dec 1, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Just a quick post about how medium term trading can be difficult. Here I am holding aussie, kiwi and pound shorts. I am also holding S&P shorts. The sentiment on all the "news" channels is decidely bullish and anti dollar. It's times like these that my experience becomes invaluable. I have been there before.
Keep it up bro, I reckon you are right on the dot
  • #10,531
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:03pm Dec 1, 2009 7:03pm
Quoting Scalpin
I am only new to all this, but from what I have learnt the daily up trend has most definately not been broken and the only way is up until the Fed starts to mention rate hikes, then its back to 80's for AUD

Long term trend line was violated which was followed by a lower low and a lower high. I dunno what to call it cause I'm just a silly Texan but I know it "ain't doin what it twas before"

Anywho, I sincerely hope no one makes a trade because I posted something. I hope my posts are thought provoking.

Scalpin, don't be confrontational in your posts bud. If everyone had the same view there would be no market. It's a given that traders see things differently.
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"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #10,532
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:09pm Dec 1, 2009 7:09pm
On top of that Weekly R1 is a down sloping trendline on 4H TF chart too.
I imagine some traders will be taking short positions on that intersection if/when it gets there.

Quoting sinner-
This sort of speculation is useless.

I am more interested in the fact that this morning neither N/U or E/U is matching A/U for a break of yesterdays NY highs (so far) and A/Us breakneck approach to weekly R1 at 92819.
  • #10,533
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:11pm Dec 1, 2009 7:11pm
Quoting Scalpin
Don't forget the Dec rally in equities that normally happens, this would drag AUD with it
Funny you should say that because I was just looking at my Jurik indicator chart for S&P (indicators compliments of Godfrey on FF). We've got classical bullish divergence on 4 hour chart and RSX has crossed up on weekly chart

I don't trade the indices but I always check to see what Jurik is saying on them when I'm looking at my AUD charts. RSX has also crossed up on daily AUD chart.

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #10,534
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:15pm Dec 1, 2009 7:15pm
Part profits taken at 9274. a small pullback is on the cards for the next few hours while the us dollar moves up to the 74.75 area.
  • #10,535
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:17pm Dec 1, 2009 7:17pm
Alright guys a quick one from me.

As per this original post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10343 (and the bear bias/bull bias chart prior to it) I went long on break of the range.

This morning we have seen a dirty break higher of the NY EOD range and I am feeling supply will wait for the next fib line/weekly R1 zone or possibly even daily R1 to step in (if at all at this point). Until then I am adding buy stops to the highs of appropriate bars.

Rough conditions in the Nikkei or even G/U topping out could drag us down from here so it will probably pay to lock in profits (if there are any to be had) quick today. I will happily switch from M30 to M5 and trade with a short bias if that turns out to be the case, until then just adding buy stops with the M30 trend.

I have included H1 chart to show as many of todays levels as possible but using the M30 to trade. On the higher timeframes, we are still rangebound inside the hilo of the previous up wave, as defined by the fib lines. Need to see a break of this range before deciding on the direction of the new impulse trend.
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  • #10,536
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:20pm Dec 1, 2009 7:20pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Long term trend line was violated which was followed by a lower low and a lower high. I dunno what to call it cause I'm just a silly Texan but I know it "ain't doin what it twas before"

Anywho, I sincerely hope no one makes a trade because I posted something. I hope my posts are thought provoking.

Scalpin, don't be confrontational in your posts bud. If everyone had the same view there would be no market. It's a given that traders see things differently.
Sorry Texas, was not trying to be confontational at all and my post was not aimed directly at you, although re-reading things I see how you may have taken it that way.
My veiw is that Fridays daily low due to Dubai should be ignored on the chart to a certain degree.
You are correct that it takes different opinions to make a market and I am happy to hear yours.

Regards
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get
  • #10,537
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:27pm Dec 1, 2009 7:27pm
Quoting Scalpin
Sorry Texas, was not trying to be confontational at all and my post was not aimed directly at you, although re-reading things I see how you may have taken it that way.
My veiw is that Fridays daily low due to Dubai should be ignored on the chart to a certain degree.
You are correct that it takes different opinions to make a market and I am happy to hear yours.

Regards

My sentiments as well sir.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #10,538
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:33pm Dec 1, 2009 7:33pm
Quoting amyc
Part profits taken at 9274. a small pullback is on the cards for the next few hours
hey amyc.... looks like a good call.....h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #10,539
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:48pm Dec 1, 2009 7:48pm
forexlive's Sam Diakous views for AUD this morning:


AUD: Intraday views
Written by Sam Diakou
December 2, 2009 at 00:31 GMT
The move up last night caught a few players out, thinking that 9220-30 would cap. Today sees support at that level with locals looking to buy around the 9220 area for the next move up above 94c. Topside sellers at 9375-80 wll try to stop the move in Asia.
With all the hype about another 100 Bps rate hikes in 2010, investors will try to set themselves long. Keep an eye out for an AUDJPY flows leading into the Tokyo fix.
On the day its 9220- 9280, with potential to break higher tonight.

and a few tidbits from 4Cast and Sam about todays Tokyo fix:

* 02 Dec 09: 00:58(SGA) - FX NOW! AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Flows - Shock rate rise was justified: Westpac; RBA, Fix 86.80

4cast - USD/JPY, Cross/JPY up on Japanese fix demand set 86.80, with USD/JPY at 86.77-78, AUD/JPY extending gains to day highs of 80.45-50. Some focus on Westpac's hike yesterday post RBA hike. The Australian : Westpac has strongly defended yesterday's shock 45-bps hike in variable mortgage rates, arguing its expanded interest margin in the bank's recent annual result would have been eroded if the bank had continued to ignore commercial reality. As other banks put their rates under review, allowing Westpac to absorb a furious Wayne Swan's warning of a customer backlash, even seasoned bankers expressed surprise at Westpac's unprecedented move, which was 20bps above the RBA's cash-rate increase. Banking analysts last night doubted the other major banks would move as high as Westpac's 6.76% rate on competition grounds. On FX, interest to sell AUD ahead of 0.9300, AUD/JPY offers 81.00. WL

Sam - The Nikkei, up 0.5%, reversing the early morning fall, has also helped the Jpy crosses higher.
AUDJPY buying has also dragged the AUD back up above 9270, where the sellers still stand. Range traders are selling here in the 70’s and buying them back below 50.

Personally (sinner): I am still seeing demand for AUD above the Tokyo open price.
  • #10,540
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:57pm Dec 1, 2009 7:57pm
Is there anyone shorting GOLD at the moment or are we expecting it to go even higher ?
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