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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #441
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:46pm Dec 1, 2009 3:46pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi Dan,

Its funny you mention the long e/u from 1.4900.

I was in it last week from friday aswell. However, i "rushed" to move the tsl upto 1.5000 when price peaked at about 1.5080. And as you can see it fell and took my stop out, only to continue up again lol.

I guess i still need work on the mindset. I seem to struggle watching how it falls like it has done, only to continue in my direction.

Any advice as to how I can work on this fault of mine? Maybe silly question, but maybe you´ve done the same before in the past with less experience...
Hi Pip,

Don't worry about that - I've done exactly the same thing many times before. The thing is that you are protecting yourself from taking a loss or sometimes ensuring that you take a profit... and that is fine.

I used to have a similar problem which is why I decided to take a mechanical approach to the stop loss as I realised that over the course of time if I kept strictly to the "100 pip" rule my trades went on to make more than if I had closed out too early.

I think the only way to overcome that "problem" is with experience. At least it was for me anyway!

Regards,

Dan
  • #442
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:26pm Dec 1, 2009 9:26pm
Hi Dan

I had a long EU last week from 4850, but closed it at 4970 on friday. I was still concerned about the dubai fallout and holding over a weekend. (The preference of not holding over the weekend is from Jacko, but I think you guys are generally looking for bigger moves than he is, so holding over the weekend might be necessary/desirable.)

GU - as you can tell, I was looking for a short, but the fact that I could see it both ways as well as Xj8's sensible analysis... meant I passed (hooray...I am learning patience at last!)

AU - nothing on for me... but the fact that it closed back above the old support line means we could start to "re-draw" that support and consider longs again

cheers
  • #443
  • Edited Dec 2, 2009 4:20am Dec 1, 2009 11:02pm | Edited Dec 2, 2009 4:20am
Hi

This might be of interest (xj8 - quite close to your setup as I understand it)

I have order to go short at 7250.

update: I have cancelled this order.. price has gone past the 50% fib and TL to 7290. This is one of the benefits of placing the order so that price must go in your direction before you get filled... that is, you generally won't get filled if you were wrong
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  • #444
  • Dec 1, 2009 11:59pm Dec 1, 2009 11:59pm
Xj8

Thanks for the commentry - def food for thought - its a nice clear, simple strategy you have (simple in a complimentry way!)

I will post some more charts at the end of my day - please give any feedback, comments if you have some time (perhaps i should open a journal to keep my silly questions so not to cluster the "professionals"!!)

P



Quoting Xj8
It's nice to see the trade at 1.5000 you got into is working in your favour, one of the lucky breaks we would all like to have now and again, you caught the falling knife by the handle on this occassion.

I only use the daily trendline to guide me as to the trend direction, it just happened to work well in my example, I've posted a chart where an inner trendline has the same effect, all the better if it is the daily, but a 4 hour trendline works the same way.

Usualy I take the fib from the second point then wait to see what happens when it moves...
  • #445
  • Dec 2, 2009 12:00am Dec 2, 2009 12:00am
Hi Coolshades

Thanks for the comments - i like the idea of mechanical as possible (ideally with paper rules )

Quoting coolshades
i took that trade too and had/have no reason to second guess it. i trade this system as mechanically as possible.

i personally dont see a reason for $ to rise this year and i think we will see a bull run on most $ pairs to the end of the year. there certainly will be love for the $ next year because the resilience of the US economy should not be underestimate, but when it happens is anyone's guess. ofcourse this is all my opinion and my opinion is not worth a big mac meal.
  • #446
  • Dec 2, 2009 1:48am Dec 2, 2009 1:48am
Hi

I've been following this thread for a little while now and I'd just like to give a very overdue thanks to Jacko for his method and everyone else here for their contributions. I've been learning a lot from this thread, and for the first time I feel like I'm not constantly fighting against the market.
I know this has been answered before because I remember reading it somewhere, but I can't for the life of me find it, so I just wanted to clarify something with you guys/girls out there.
(1) Are you trading by taking profits when you see fit or do you let the stop loss get hit every time before you start planning the next trade / anti-hedge?
ie. are you trying to capture every significant move or are you just trying to capture the length of the major trend itself?
(2) Just to confirm that I've been using the anti-hedge strategy properly, how long/far after you hit your sl do you put in your pending anti-hedge order?
ie. if you are whipsawed by a trade that appears to be rebounding in your direction, would you re-enter immediately or let some time pass?
I've just started trading this strategy live so I've been a little pre-occupied with the details, but I hope to start contributing more and more to this thread as I get more comfortable with everything.

Good luck to all, and keep those charts coming
  • #447
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:33am Dec 2, 2009 4:33am
Hi

I seem to remember Jacko saying something about price that sits on (or closely around) a TL or 50% fib is more likley to break that level the longer it sits there. I.e. if price has not been repelled by that level, it probably will not hold.

Does anyone have experience or comment on this?
  • #448
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:39am Dec 2, 2009 4:39am

  1. all those who follow the system faithfully place an initial sl at 100 pips and move that sl manually by 100 pips for every 100 pip move.
  2. ah is placed when price moved 50 pips beyond the stop. so for example if you have a trade on eu for say 1.4900 with sl of 1.4800 and your trade gets stopped out, then you place an ah trade at 1.48 in the same direction as your original trade, once price reaches 1.475.

Quoting spyder
Hi


(1) Are you trading by taking profits when you see fit or do you let the stop loss get hit every time before you start planning the next trade / anti-hedge?
ie. are you trying to capture every significant move or are you just trying to capture the length of the major trend itself?



(2) Just to confirm that I've been using the anti-hedge strategy properly, how long/far after you hit your sl do you put in your pending anti-hedge order?
ie. if you are whipsawed by a trade that appears to be rebounding in your direction, would you re-enter immediately...
  • #449
  • Dec 2, 2009 4:58am Dec 2, 2009 4:58am
Quoting bluehorizon
Hi

I seem to remember Jacko saying something about price that sits on (or closely around) a TL or 50% fib is more likley to break that level the longer it sits there. I.e. if price has not been repelled by that level, it probably will not hold.

Does anyone have experience or comment on this?
Hi Bluehorizon,

I think what this means is that if price is at a level that you are interested in and you are not getting a reaction then it is probably not the best level to trade from.

The idea behind this is that, as we know, the market is moved by the numbers of buyers vs sellers and (in an uptrend) if we are expecting say 1.4500 to hold then that is because we expect buyers to overpower sellers at this point - if price doesn't indicate that happening then the chances are that there are not enough buyers at that level and price may be continuing down (not necessarily a trend change, maybe just to a better discount).

Hope that helps.

Regards,

Dan

PS... This is one of the reasons I look for price to bounce off the desired level by 50 pips before entering a trade.
  • #450
  • Dec 2, 2009 5:01am Dec 2, 2009 5:01am
Quoting Pervaz
Xj8

Thanks for the commentry - def food for thought - its a nice clear, simple strategy you have (simple in a complimentry way!)

I will post some more charts at the end of my day - please give any feedback, comments if you have some time (perhaps i should open a journal to keep my silly questions so not to cluster the "professionals"!!)

P
Hi Pervaz,

That's ok - I don't think anybody minds answering questions; that is part of the reason this thread exists. I do recommend keeping a journal though; in order to keep track of your trades and to help air your thoughts whilst trading, as part of the learning process.

Regards,

Dan
  • #451
  • Dec 2, 2009 5:33am Dec 2, 2009 5:33am
Hi Dan

Thanks for that

Are you trading stocks as well ?

P

Quoting DanUK
Hi Pervaz,

That's ok - I don't think anybody minds answering questions; that is part of the reason this thread exists. I do recommend keeping a journal though; in order to keep track of your trades and to help air your thoughts whilst trading, as part of the learning process.

Regards,

Dan
  • #452
  • Dec 2, 2009 5:45am Dec 2, 2009 5:45am
Quoting Pervaz
Hi Dan

Thanks for that

Are you trading stocks as well ?

P
Yes I've been trading stocks for a lot longer than forex, although my stock trading involves a little more fundamental analysis than my forex trading.
  • #453
  • Dec 2, 2009 6:03am Dec 2, 2009 6:03am
Thanks Dan

I was wondering to see if you could use the same strategy for stocks as well as FX

Quoting DanUK
Yes I've been trading stocks for a lot longer than forex, although my stock trading involves a little more fundamental analysis than my forex trading.
P
  • #454
  • Dec 2, 2009 7:21am Dec 2, 2009 7:21am
Quoting Pervaz
Thanks Dan

I was wondering to see if you could use the same strategy for stocks as well as FX



P
Hi Pervaz,

Yes you definitely can trade this method on stocks... in fact anything that trends. The only thing is you will have to choose different sized stop losses etc based on how each item (be it stock or index etc) moves.

That was another reason for this thread - which is something I must get to actually. When I have a bit more time I shall put up some charts of a few stock trades that I have done.

When I used to trade stocks (before knowing anything about technical analysis) I did it using fundamentals only. Since learning this method of trading (trend trading, Jacko style) I have used it to refine my entries on my stock trades which have given me a better return, percentage wise.

Regards,

Dan
  • #455
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:49am Dec 2, 2009 10:49am
hi dan, you seem to catch a lot of good moves, do you have price alerts set up or something like that, or you just watch charts * a lot *?

what I mean is, I missed A/U long 0.90/0.9050 because I simply wasn't watching (even though I posted here I would watch the 0.8950 area...), but also missed both your G/U trades
  • #456
  • Dec 2, 2009 11:10am Dec 2, 2009 11:10am
Hi

I moved my stop on the last EU trade from SL to 1.50567 (40 ish pips - entry price was 1.50128)

I took advice from everyone and updated my chart.

This is the updated EU chart.

1. Red line represents daily TL
2. Blue line is the weekly TL
3. I would draw a 4hr TL but it would overlay the daily TL
4. I have drawn 2 fibs from 3/11 - 25/11 the eclipse is where my target is (1.4900). This also has the convergence of S&R.
5. I have also added another fib from 20/11-25/11 - the target area i am waiting for is 1.49800

Any comments ?
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  • #457
  • Dec 2, 2009 11:23am Dec 2, 2009 11:23am
Im waiting for a long around 1.4900(ish).

Taking into account the major swing points (low 3 nov and high 25 nov) to place my fib, the RN, the dailies TL, and the current bull market.

I tend to look for reaction around the 50 fibo and on to the 61.8. Anything smaller doesnt interest me.

My 2 cents.
  • #458
  • Dec 2, 2009 11:36am Dec 2, 2009 11:36am
Hi Pip

Whats the RN ?

Do you mind showing a chart ?

P
  • #459
  • Dec 2, 2009 12:06pm Dec 2, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting bazooki
hi dan, you seem to catch a lot of good moves, do you have price alerts set up or something like that, or you just watch charts * a lot *?

what I mean is, I missed A/U long 0.90/0.9050 because I simply wasn't watching (even though I posted here I would watch the 0.8950 area...), but also missed both your G/U trades
Hi Bazooki,

A bit of both actually. I do set price alerts for my "areas of interest" but I also check my charts pretty frequently (during London hours and the start of New York - after that I don't check so much).

Regards,

Dan
  • #460
  • Dec 2, 2009 12:08pm Dec 2, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting Pervaz
Hi Pip

Whats the RN ?

Do you mind showing a chart ?

P
Royal Navy!?!
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