Trend Trading Chart Thread | Page 22 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Are you a trend trader or a counter-trend trader? 29 replies

Trading bounces off daily chart trend lines 13 replies

Trend trading with 55EMAs on the Daily Chart 10 replies

Is Grid Trading (combined trend following and counter trend) Profitable? 3 replies

Attachments: Trend Trading Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #421
  • Nov 27, 2009 7:17am Nov 27, 2009 7:17am
Bemac

Trendlines can be awkward at the best of times, originally I had a shorter daily, when that was breached and became invalidated I panned out and had to move further back to March as you discovered. What I have noticed is, trendlines tend to hold at the third attempt, traders will shy away, and as we have a round number and a 50% retrace converging around 4th to 9th December, this will be a third attempt on this trendline, for me, signs of a stronghold against the sellers.

Of course it may hit the trendline earlier, shy away and then retest it for a fourth time, but area indicated has my attention.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 27th c nov.jpg Size: 94 KB
  • #422
  • Nov 27, 2009 7:18am Nov 27, 2009 7:18am
Quoting Xj8
I understand your logic, but I think price can be a bit more predictable than we give credit. There is a probability that price will indeed push through the 50% fib I have in place, possibly breach the trendline (but not by much) then I expect it to retrace back to around 1.6500 and again retest 1.6300 and the longer term trendline, somewhere in the vicinity of 4th - 9th December, only once it does this will I consider a trade at 1.6350, it's too early at this stage.

GU could be in free fall, if so, there's nothing to stop the bears to push for...
Xj8, I share the same thinking as you. but when it bounce at the 1.65 region i will look to short at that price and hold it all the way down to 1.57.
Well....anything can happen so we shall watch and see.
  • #423
  • Nov 27, 2009 7:39am Nov 27, 2009 7:39am
Quoting herzog21
Xj8, I share the same thinking as you. but when it bounce at the 1.65 region i will look to short at that price and hold it all the way down to 1.57.
Well....anything can happen so we shall watch and see.
At the moment, down to 1.6300 and above would be buy scenarios, if the trendline was to fail I would not look for a sell until it retested the trendline on the way back up, that support I indicated earlier is to me a strong area for support, if it passes through this, then it will become strong resistance, then and only then would I consider a sell. There would have to be signs that 1.6300 would hold as resistance, then enter at 1.6250. It's a little bit safer for my style of trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 27th d nov.jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #424
  • Nov 27, 2009 7:43am Nov 27, 2009 7:43am
Of course it would be profitable if you took the trade from 1.6500 (if it plays out that way) sell to 1.6300, then watch to see how price react to 1.6300 and make a decision then, I know you would anyway, but it's worth considering a sell at 1.6500 if it's a sell you are looking for. I personally still prefer the buys at this stage.
  • #425
  • Nov 28, 2009 4:44pm Nov 28, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

Thank you for your comments. This method is definitely profitable but part of it's power is it's simplicity. I used to think I needed to add another dimension (such as candle stick reversal patterns etc) to make it profitable but to be honest it isn't necessary. So long as you follow the basic rules and follow the trend nothing else is needed.

I would also say that it is not possible to tell where the market will go next - it might go to the s/r level you...
yes/but I think putting the trailing stop from the begining of the trade couldnt be useful because sometimes market may retrace ie 40 pips and our position goes in _40 loss but then goes back and if we put trailing stop we have missed this opportunity it s better to put our trailing stops after gaining ie 30 pips(depenig on the pair) and then put 15 pips trailing so we have at least 15 pips in our pocket and then we can dont u think so?
and by the way how many pips u put on your trailing on eur/jpy?
  • #426
  • Nov 30, 2009 5:23am Nov 30, 2009 5:23am
Quoting 0nline
yes/but I think putting the trailing stop from the begining of the trade couldnt be useful because sometimes market may retrace ie 40 pips and our position goes in _40 loss but then goes back and if we put trailing stop we have missed this opportunity it s better to put our trailing stops after gaining ie 30 pips(depenig on the pair) and then put 15 pips trailing so we have at least 15 pips in our pocket and then we can dont u think so?
and by the way how many pips u put on your trailing on eur/jpy?
Hmmm I'm not sure I follow you here? We put the stop 100 pips away when trading E/U and G/U so if the market went 40 pips against us that would be ok.

I don't actually trade EUR/JPY so unfortunately I can't advise what the best stop size would be for that currency pair.

Regards,

Dan
  • #427
  • Nov 30, 2009 5:23am Nov 30, 2009 5:23am
not sure if Dan can answer that or anyone else for that matter, because it falls under the personal discretion and comfort zone category.

i have mentioned in one of these two threads that 80% of my stops have been recovered by the AH system and as long as that ratio is that good, i dont mind the occassional loss. so i for one will stick to the original system of a fixed sl that is moved manually over time.

re, eurjpy, didnt think dan traded that.

Quoting 0nline
yes/but I think putting the trailing stop from the begining of the trade couldnt be useful because sometimes market may retrace ie 40 pips and our position goes in _40 loss but then goes back and if we put trailing stop we have missed this opportunity it s better to put our trailing stops after gaining ie 30 pips(depenig on the pair) and then put 15 pips trailing so we have at least 15 pips in our pocket and then we can dont u think so?
and by the way how many pips u put on your trailing on eur/jpy?
  • #428
  • Nov 30, 2009 5:32am Nov 30, 2009 5:32am
woops, sorry. am in danger of becoming your mouthpiece here.

Quoting DanUK

I don't actually trade EUR/JPY so unfortunately I can't advise what the best stop size would be for that currency pair.

Regards,

Dan
  • #429
  • Nov 30, 2009 9:16am Nov 30, 2009 9:16am
Hi all

First jacko strategy trade on the EUR/USD

My rationale is that :

1. Long daily trend is up
2. The 4 hr trend is up (2nd blue line)
3. Did a fib from 25/11 - 27/11 - 50% lay in the 1.49848 zone
4. Nearest round number is 1.50000
5. Also there are some s&r around the 1.5000 number as well

Price broke thru the 50% and then re-traced to 1.49956.

I put a buy order in at 1.50128. SL 1.49128. TP 1.51128

I add my chart (need to use candles as barlines are too faint for my old eyes and i am colour blind !!!)

Any comments please ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_sunday.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #430
  • Nov 30, 2009 10:42am Nov 30, 2009 10:42am
Quoting Pervaz
3. Did a fib from 25/11 - 27/11 - 50% lay in the 1.49848 zone
you drew the fib wrong (if you want to go long, it's fine for short). should be from swing low 27th / high 30th (that is, on 4H and IF E/U keeps dropping, we don't know for sure yet...but I think it is, but we don't trade what we think )
  • #431
  • Edited 11:43am Nov 30, 2009 11:32am | Edited 11:43am
I'm in agreement with Bazooki regarding the direction of your fib. This particular trade only has one barrier in place, that of the round number 1.5000, previously holding as resistance, it may not be enough as a solitary support area.

My prefered area for taking a fib is from November 3rd to the most recent swing high, taking the 50% retrace to a round number 1.4900 and a daily trendline for good measure too. That to me is a good solid area of support and a better area for a buy.

Always draw your fib in the direction you wish to trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 30th nov.jpg Size: 122 KB
  • #432
  • Edited Dec 1, 2009 12:04am Nov 30, 2009 11:59pm | Edited Dec 1, 2009 12:04am
Xj8 and Bazooki

Thanks for that - lesson learnt - i wasnt too sure of which way the fib went (since i was only looking at the 50% variable i thought it didnt matter )

The placement of the fib is an interesting point. I did originally look at those points xj8 - but i suppose i was in too much of a rush to enter a trade !!

Had another thought - i think i understand your placement xj8 - as it has the "most confluence" points -
a) its near the main daily trend
b) intersection of 1.49000 and daily trend to bounce
c) intersection and very close to 50%
d) plus the S&R lines

whereas my entry was in the "air" and not against the main trendline (the phrase trying to catch a falling knife comes to mind)

(am i on the right ball park ?)

Thanks for your comments - really appreciate it

P
  • #433
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:03am Dec 1, 2009 6:03am
sell last week at 1.055, at be now
  • #434
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:00am Dec 1, 2009 9:00am
It's nice to see the trade at 1.5000 you got into is working in your favour, one of the lucky breaks we would all like to have now and again, you caught the falling knife by the handle on this occassion.

I only use the daily trendline to guide me as to the trend direction, it just happened to work well in my example, I've posted a chart where an inner trendline has the same effect, all the better if it is the daily, but a 4 hour trendline works the same way.

Usualy I take the fib from the second point then wait to see what happens when it moves for the third touch, in the case of this example, it shows confluence of the trendline, 50% fib and 1.6550 round number, no reason not to enter here. If there's a reason not to get in then leave it, here there was no reason why I shouldn't enter, so go for it.

The third touch of a trendline on a 4 hour chart is usually a strong point, coupled with a 50% fib and a round number should give you an 80-90% chance of this being a winning trade. This is what I look for, I miss a few weaker trading opportunities, but the ones I do catch keep my mind and bank balance healthy.

The current GU is posting lower highs at the moment (4 Hr) probably not the best time to buy, I would like price to create a new high to give me a stable point for a fib, until then, I have to remain with the fib shown on chart 2.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pervas example 1.jpg Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: pervas example 2.jpg Size: 111 KB
  • #435
  • Dec 1, 2009 10:36am Dec 1, 2009 10:36am
Hi xj8

Thanks for your well thought through analysis once again. For the sake of discussion and sharing views(as that's why we're here right), I have a few comments on GU

as I think danuk pointed out, GU is a bit tricky at the moment and if one zooms out a little, has kind of been going sideways for a while (see first chart)

If we zoom back in a little, there is a case to be made (second chart) that the recent uptrend in GU was broken and we are now approaching the 3rd touch on a downtrend.

I am certainly not saying that you are wrong (in fact I probably favour your analysis), just that there are other ways to see this and that might just be enough reason to be cautious or even stay away.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 4h sideways.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 4h.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #436
  • Dec 1, 2009 10:52am Dec 1, 2009 10:52am
Hi guys,

Just to share thoughts and "views" on the g/u market.

This is what im seeing.

On the dailies im seeing two ascending trendlines where price seems to be reacting from.

I also see we are ranging since May-June 2009 between 1.6000 - 1.6700.

I also see a pronounced Pin Bar bouncing of support at 1.6300 (yes! i know, we dont take them into account, but it IS there).

My bias is long. Im also locked in 100 pips due to the descending 4h "inner" trendline.

This is my view on things and doesnt have to agree with everyone else. But the point here is that I am personally comfortable in taking the trade.

My 2 cents.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2.png Size: 45 KB
  • #437
  • Dec 1, 2009 11:29am Dec 1, 2009 11:29am
i took that trade too and had/have no reason to second guess it. i trade this system as mechanically as possible.

i personally dont see a reason for $ to rise this year and i think we will see a bull run on most $ pairs to the end of the year. there certainly will be love for the $ next year because the resilience of the US economy should not be underestimate, but when it happens is anyone's guess. ofcourse this is all my opinion and my opinion is not worth a big mac meal.



Quoting Pervaz
Xj8 and Bazooki

Thanks for that - lesson learnt - i wasnt too sure of which way the fib went (since i was only looking at the 50% variable i thought it didnt matter )

The placement of the fib is an interesting point. I did originally look at those points xj8 - but i suppose i was in too much of a rush to enter a trade !!

Had another thought - i think i understand your placement xj8 - as it has the "most confluence" points -
a) its near the main daily trend
b) intersection of 1.49000 and daily trend to bounce
c) intersection and very...
  • #438
  • Dec 1, 2009 11:31am Dec 1, 2009 11:31am
Bluehorizon.

I certainly agree with your views on the move down, it would be possible to take a sell when it hits the downward sloping trend for the third time, however, I would be cautious when it reached 1.6350/400, that would be the third touch of the bigger trending move, so, a sell is not outwith the possibilities, but again only to the uptrendling trendline.

We may see price coiling between the two trendlines as it closes in on the wedge, a breakout of either trendline would likely determine direction regarding future trades. Certainly one to watch.

Regarding the sell, it would remain only two barriers, a fib from the top puts the 50% 70+ pips from the upper trendline, had it been closer, I would certainly consider a quick sell trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bluehorizon.jpg Size: 114 KB
  • #439
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:36pm Dec 1, 2009 2:36pm
Hi guys,

Good to see lots of sensible ideas and discussion going on here. I am back online now so I shall be popping in more often (if the kids allow it!).

I think we are all seeing things fairly similarly at the moment. I just posted this in my journal...

I currently have a long open on E/U from 1.4900 (opened last Friday) and a long open on G/U from 1.6450 (opened this morning). No current position on A/U although my bias remains long at this time.

How does everyone else stand at the moment?

Regards,

Dan
  • #440
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:10pm Dec 1, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

Good to see lots of sensible ideas and discussion going on here. I am back online now so I shall be popping in more often (if the kids allow it!).

I think we are all seeing things fairly similarly at the moment. I just posted this in my journal...

I currently have a long open on E/U from 1.4900 (opened last Friday) and a long open on G/U from 1.6450 (opened this morning). No current position on A/U although my bias remains long at this time.
...
Hi Dan,

Its funny you mention the long e/u from 1.4900.

I was in it last week from friday aswell. However, i "rushed" to move the tsl upto 1.5000 when price peaked at about 1.5080. And as you can see it fell and took my stop out, only to continue up again lol.

I guess i still need work on the mindset. I seem to struggle watching how it falls like it has done, only to continue in my direction.

Any advice as to how I can work on this fault of mine? Maybe silly question, but maybe you´ve done the same before in the past with less experience like me?

Cheers

Pip
0 traders viewing now