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Ichimoku forever

  • #6,621
  • Nov 30, 2009 6:38pm Nov 30, 2009 6:38pm
The point is no one can predict what's going to happen next so why try? Find a method that is proven and use it. If you can't stand the sl, don't take the trade. Otherwise, let it run and history shows 1h/day kumo crosses pay. What else do you need to know?

S


Thanks, Steve and Vic. I suppose we essentially all knew this, but this is a splash of cold water in my face.

What else, indeed, do we need to know. Let's trade!!!

Forest
  • #6,622
  • Nov 30, 2009 6:50pm Nov 30, 2009 6:50pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
The point is no one can predict what's going to happen next so why try? Find a method that is proven and use it. If you can't stand the sl, don't take the trade. Otherwise, let it run and history shows 1h/day kumo crosses pay. What else do you need to know?

S


Thanks, Steve and Vic. I suppose we essentially all knew this, but this is a splash of cold water in my face.

What else, indeed, do we need to know. Let's trade!!!

Forest
What stops you from trading ???!!!
  • #6,623
  • Nov 30, 2009 8:20pm Nov 30, 2009 8:20pm
Quoting stevewide
Thanks Vic:

I see the 1h kumo cross entry long; it just seems there's some way to avoid almost 100 pips of drawdown. In the past I've bailed at a loss sometimes when this happens but am learning to hang on and it will turn to profits. In the past when it turns to profits I've bailed relieved I got out without a loss but must learn to hang on till the 1h kumoB takes me out, almost always at a large profit.

Is this how its done?

Steve

Do not think in terms of pips for drawdown or really for anything. Think in terms as a % of your account.

Monetary amounts only puts you in a defensive mode and will always limit your success.

The point is to grab the trade...have good m/m and dont blow your account on one trade...and let it run as far as you can stand it or when the trend changes.

Never predict your trade...dont worry about it...it will take care of itself. Trust me, trends last longer than you will ever hang on to one.

Good luck Steve.

golferfx
  • #6,624
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:20am Dec 1, 2009 12:20am
I hope I'm doing it right...
Attached Image
  • #6,625
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:18am Dec 1, 2009 1:18am
Hi all,

Can someone just clarify for me please?

Is the preferred methodology now as follows:

1. Only trade in direction of overall trend - as determined by daily chart cloud position.

2. Enter off 1hour chart only.

I have daily, 4hr, 1hr and 15min charts open, and I'm beginning to think it's information overload!!

Many thanks,

GT3RS
  • #6,626
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:39am Dec 1, 2009 2:39am
Quoting Gt3rs
Hi all,

Can someone just clarify for me please?

Is the preferred methodology now as follows:

1. Only trade in direction of overall trend - as determined by daily chart cloud position.

2. Enter off 1hour chart only.

I have daily, 4hr, 1hr and 15min charts open, and I'm beginning to think it's information overload!!

Many thanks,

GT3RS
Would also like to know
Same situation. Much preferring trading off the higher timeframes
  • #6,627
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:48am Dec 1, 2009 2:48am
Quoting carsomyr
Would also like to know
Same situation. Much preferring trading off the higher timeframes
I've been reading this thread for awhile now and I think Vic trades off of the 5min chart... also he had 4hr,1hr,30min,15min charts open and base his 5min off of those trend.

Don't quote me! I'm a newbie but I have been reading!
  • #6,628
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:22am Dec 1, 2009 3:22am
Quoting Masapv
I've been reading this thread for awhile now and I think Vic trades off of the 5min chart... also he had 4hr,1hr,30min,15min charts open and base his 5min off of those trend.

Don't quote me! I'm a newbie but I have been reading!
I think Vic now trades off higher timeframes.

My current thinking is to use daily for direction end enter off 1hr charts

OR

4hr for direction and enter off 15min..............
  • #6,629
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:43am Dec 1, 2009 3:43am
Hello Vic and All,

I appreciate the simplicity of your explanation on kumo breakouts.
I agree that in a trending market this works very well, but how to deal with a range market?
Yesterday I bactested EJ and even if my entry on kumo breakout H1 is only when D1 is outside kumo, the result is a lot of whiplash.
Any solution to prevent this?

Thanks.




Quoting vic_elc
More KUMO

Here is the question
I have seen your AUD USD chart and it looks awesome but I don’t trade on the daily chart what shall I do???
The answer is very simple,


-29-07-2008 the price broke the daily kumo and started to trend down (Down trend-people are selling)
-Switch to your 1Hr chart and take only any kumo break to the down (sell with the people)

-19-03-2009 the price broke above the kumo (Up Trend – people are buying)
-Switch to your 1Hr chart and take only any kumo break to the up (Buy with the people).
[b]
Rules...
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  • #6,630
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:58am Dec 1, 2009 3:58am
hello frds

i think its very interesting

can you dig that idea please frds

when i look for the trend in the long time frame then i trade on a shorter time frame ... its clear but

4h = trend * 1h=trading

1h= trend * 5 m = trading

is this the good match ?

what about daily weekly others periods ?

how do you confirm trend is ok on one time frame ? is it when all arrow are on same side ?

tks
recidiviste
BROKENGLISH
  • #6,631
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:22am Dec 1, 2009 4:22am
Quoting recidiviste
hello frds

i think its very interesting

can you dig that idea please frds

when i look for the trend in the long time frame then i trade on a shorter time frame ... its clear but

4h = trend * 1h=trading

1h= trend * 5 m = trading

is this the good match ?

what about daily weekly others periods ?

how do you confirm trend is ok on one time frame ? is it when all arrow are on same side ?

tks
recidiviste
When a trader gets signals in several different time frames, the higher time frames for the direction and smaller time frames to time the entry it greatly increases ones chances for a success full trade.

When a trader can look at the market from many different time frames he/she is becoming a better trader. If a trader only looks at the market from one time frame this will limit his/her view of what the market is really doing. The bigger the picture of the market the better his/her chances of a successful trade are. For the position trader having the monthly, weekly, and daily time frames all lined up would be a big advantage. For the Swing trader having the 4-hour, and 1-hour, line up for an entry on the 15 or 30-minute would be a strong advantage as well.

A longer term traders should not make all their decisions based on the monthly, and weekly, charts and the short-term trader should not make all of their decisions using the 1- and 5-minute charts. In most cases the smaller time frames are used to time the entry on a trade and the larger time frames are used to determine the direction of the trend and to help stay in a winning trade longer.

It does not matter whether a trader goes for the long term or short term trades he/she needs to look at both the long and short time frames. When a signal appears on a larger time frame when you have entered in a smaller time frame, and once a trade is being monitored in a larger time frame the smaller time frames will continue to give you an entry signals. The more of the market a trader can see, the better he/she will be at trading, as he/she will get a clearer picture of what the market is doing.
  • #6,632
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:37am Dec 1, 2009 4:37am
Ok guys AUDUSD is about to break out of the 4h Kumo

Daily and weekly are up

A cross on 1h about to occur and there has been a cross on the 30m

I would take this trade when the 4h candle closes above the cloud.

Would I be wrong?
  • #6,633
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:52am Dec 1, 2009 4:52am
Momentum is clearly up. On H4 we see HH HL, but I would pass because of the black trendline (from ichimoku perspective you see the resistance by a chikou span who still have not cleared the price).
But I am a kind of pessimist trader who always look why I should not entry.



Quoting ichidakiller
Ok guys AUDUSD is about to break out of the 4h Kumo

Daily and weekly are up

A cross on 1h about to occur and there has been a cross on the 30m

I would take this trade when the 4h candle closes above the cloud.

Would I be wrong?
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  • #6,634
  • Dec 1, 2009 4:55am Dec 1, 2009 4:55am
thanks dakiller:

Entered late yesterday after the 1h kumo turned long when it retraced to the ks line in agreement with day kumo cross long. now up 106 pips.

I've had better luck trading 1h/day than 4h. I know you are a very good trader so would like to learn more how you do it. Do you confirm the 4h with weekly or what?

Thanks for helping us.

Steve
  • #6,635
  • Dec 1, 2009 5:41am Dec 1, 2009 5:41am
Hey Steve

I think you have got me wrong, I am still struggling to get Ichi to work.

Im almost ready to give up
  • #6,636
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:40am Dec 1, 2009 6:40am
Hello everyone,

I was wondering if anyone has ever modified an alert such as the InchimokuAlert_V1 that is posted in this thread so that it would have the option to only signal when you have a T/K cross above/Below the KUMO?

That way you would only receive "strong" signals.
It's amazing how lucky you are when you make good decisions.
  • #6,637
  • Dec 1, 2009 6:54am Dec 1, 2009 6:54am
dakiller:
Heck, we all give up occasionally...glad you fessed up to it.

One idea Vic suggests would be to watch the Eur/Gbp, Usd/JPY, and Eur/JPY and go short when the 1h future kumo turns down in agreement with the day future kumo...could be a long wait; SL behind 1h kumo spanB + buffer. Don't touch anything except to move sl behind 1h spanB.

Giving up pops up in my mind too. With limited employment opportunities I would likely get a low paying job.

Putting several years in forex to give up short of paying me the rest of my life seems so average. Its embarrassing that my productivity hasn't made any money yet. Well, I've made a little inconsistently but not enough for my wife to retire which is my goal.

Always a slow learner I make up for it with stubburn pursuit to keep trying till thoroughly learned.

Hope you can relate to my situation and start over...one more time.

Steve
  • #6,638
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:36am Dec 1, 2009 7:36am
Thanks for your honest post Steve.

I know Forex is meant to be tough but all the late nights and early mornings spent studying and learning forex, backtesting forward testing, when you feel you are getting somewhere it all changes, I have had methods in ichi that I have used (from this forum) and they have worked brilliantly for a few weeks then 2 weeks later lost more then I gained and that's sticking to my rules 100%.

I am a very organised confident person, but I just cant see me making money from Forex, unless I start with a 100k bank.

Its frustrating and depressing, I still follow this thread but I really am struggling.

The best way for me to learn would be to copy signals from a successful ichi trader, as I would be able to see first hand its success even for a few months, but no-one is willing to do this as I believe no-one is actually making this work.

Sorry for the downbeat reply, but this is how I feel
  • #6,639
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:45am Dec 1, 2009 7:45am
Quoting stevewide
dakiller:
Heck, we all give up occasionally...glad you fessed up to it.

One idea Vic suggests would be to watch the Eur/Gbp, Usd/JPY, and Eur/JPY and go short when the 1h future kumo turns down in agreement with the day future kumo...could be a long wait; SL behind 1h kumo spanB + buffer. Don't touch anything except to move sl behind 1h spanB.

Giving up pops up in my mind too. With limited employment opportunities I would likely get a low paying job.

Putting several years in forex to give up short of paying me the rest of my life seems so...
Gday forexers...

Let's face it, forex is one of the toughest challenges to get right out there...short of war!? You are operating in a completely unstructured free-for-all environment, the risks are high and the penalties can be harsh, especially considering the capacity for causing unlimited damage to yourself.

It is tough. And some days (like today for example when I converted a 10% ROI to a -22% ROI) I DO wonder the sanity of it all.

But I remind myself, whatever happens in the market is the right result. Gain or lose, the result is a product reflective of you and your personal level of development. When faced with adversity and negative results, you can put down your arms after these years of trying and quit, or you can ask yourself "Do I want to make it" and why.

It takes a lot of guts to pick yourself up and try again. We know its not a case of beating your head senselessly against the wall because other successful traders who have gone before us have proven it can be done. But it still takes guts to be perfectly honest with yourself, and look in the cold light of day at yourself, your mistakes and opportunities to be a better trader. It takes even more guts to actually then go and do the things you know you need to do after reflection, and then do it day after day, after day, after day after day etc etc etc.

You are not alone in your trials and tribulations. We all share a common dream. Dust yourself off and let's get back to it.

Chngster
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
  • #6,640
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:14am Dec 1, 2009 9:14am
Quoting ichidakiller
Thanks for your honest post Steve.

I know Forex is meant to be tough but all the late nights and early mornings spent studying and learning forex, backtesting forward testing, when you feel you are getting somewhere it all changes, I have had methods in ichi that I have used (from this forum) and they have worked brilliantly for a few weeks then 2 weeks later lost more then I gained and that's sticking to my rules 100%.

I am a very organised confident person, but I just cant see me making money from Forex, unless I start with a 100k bank.

Its...


Hi Ichidakiller and other Kumo warriors,

There is big disbalance on the market and I think it’s a time to renew Ichimoku theory:

“Hosoda strongly believed that the market was a direct reflection of human group dynamics or behavior. He felt that human behavior could be described in terms of a constant cyclical movement both away from and back towards equilibrium in their lives and interactions.”

Dubai World debt is an extraordinary situation, with huge impact on the market, that dose not repeat at 9, 26 or 52 time period. And it’s not over yet. Ichimoku is not designed for such turbulent environment. We should be very carefully in the next week or two, especially in taking position on daily or weekly TF. I will wait until solution for Dubai World is found, and try to ride price back to equilibrium. Meanwhile I will not make trades that last more than hour or two.

If you are not making pips, bigger account with more lots trading will only increase losses. Just be patient, keep the fait and try to make constant, small increase in pips.
It is ease to double the lot, and very hard to be each month in green.
Last month was hard for me. I lost all the gains from November, but I am not loosing the faith in Ichimoku. I tried to catch bounces from daily KS AUD/USD, but it didn’t bounce.
I understood that it was bed strategy at the moment, and now I am waiting for market to calm a little bit.

Best regards
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