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AUD/USD

  • #10,401
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:06am Dec 1, 2009 12:06am
if the dollar can break back below 74.95 then that might be game over for the bears today, at the moment i am neutral.
  • #10,402
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:09am Dec 1, 2009 12:09am
Quoting Daytrader74
Can someone please tell me how I can use Metatrader4 I mean I downloaded it and install it but when I go to open the program I get no charts...nothing...and if I try to login what am I supposed to do there ? does it have to be connected with my current broker ? and help would be greatly appreciated.
from wherever you downloaded it , you need to open a demo account to make it work on the same site (for e.g go to FXCM and open a demo on MT4, and download it from there too), and if your broker doesnt support it you cant trade on it, but you can use it as demo and signal creating
  • #10,403
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:12am Dec 1, 2009 12:12am
Quoting shahab8b
from wherever you downloaded it , you need to open a demo account to make it work on the same site (for e.g go to FXCM and open a demo on MT4, and download it from there too), and if your broker doesnt support it you cant trade on it, but you can use it as demo and signal creating
Thanks heaps mate for your help, I'll try that.
  • #10,404
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:13am Dec 1, 2009 12:13am
Quoting amyc
I would need it to break 74.16 before i could join you today, over the medium term i am still bearish on the dollar for a little bit more yet.
You mean 75.16 right? We are already way above 74.16 for the day.

I think it is possible AUDUSD could see daily S3 (0.9005), but as far as I am concerned, this pair remains in range until it makes an hourly close above the 61.8% fib line I showed earlier or hourly close below daily S1. In the meantime, I am shorting rallies.
  • #10,405
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:16am Dec 1, 2009 12:16am
yes 75.16

currencies are not going to fall that far without equities going with them and i don't see a fall for them tonight.
  • #10,406
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:22am Dec 1, 2009 12:22am
Quoting sinner-
To say USD is toast is a complete misnomer, what you are trying to say is "all fiat currency is toast" I might agree with that, if you just say USD is toast I completely and utterly disagree as it is a matter of which currency "is the most toast" and USD is so far down on the list as you can see from the above questions...as the old saying goes "if someone owes you $1000000 they are in trouble if someone owes you $10000000000000000 then YOU are in trouble). Just like the last time there was a sustained currency and debt liquidity crisis (the...
LOL - well that's getting into the nitty gritty.

I'm sorry posters if I misled you when I said that the US$ is "toast". What I was trying to say is that I don't believe the US$ will return to it's glory days any time soon based on it's fundamentals. The same with GBP.

When I started trading in 2004, I thought the US$ was the bee's knees and could do no wrong and the market let me know many times over that my naive interpretation of the US$ was incorrect. That's why I like to follow fundamentals. It opened my eyes.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #10,407
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:25am Dec 1, 2009 12:25am
Equities are off in la-la land you have to admit that! Equities (especially the Canadian and Australian bourse) can rise on falling currency. Don't get too fixed on the USD/bourse correlation as this year it has mostly been affecting XAUUSD rather than equities.

Here is an addition to the bias chart I drew earlier (if bear bias plays out), trying to think in terms of time based S/R. I also had some other fib analysis but will leave it out for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 1.png Size: 31 KB
  • #10,408
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:26am Dec 1, 2009 12:26am
The uderlying commentary with rate decision is quite bullish. Westpac has raised variable interest rates by 45 bps (nearly double to what RBA has raised).

What does this mean?

Westpac clearly sees more rate rises when RBA meets again in February and some are even predicting a whooping 50 bps rate rise in Feb IF all economic data leading into that meeting is as per or better than expected.

Except for a few minor blips, I am expecting AUD to create new highs before the year end.

Afterall, fundamentally AU has outperformed almost all advanced countries after GFC.

Bar heavy profit taking and another unexpected crisis, AUD will slowly and surely grind higher....
  • #10,409
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:32am Dec 1, 2009 12:32am
Quoting sinner-
Equities are off in la-la land you have to admit that! Equities (especially the Canadian and Australian bourse) can rise on falling currency. Don't get too fixed on the USD/bourse correlation as this year it has mostly been affecting XAUUSD rather than equities.

Here is an addition to the bias chart I drew earlier (if bear bias plays out), trying to think in terms of time based S/R. I also had some other fib analysis but will leave it out for now.
I actually agree with you that we are about to have a major reversal of trend and i actually had planned on shorting the aud down to 8921 this week but when it opened on monday as high as it did i had to scrap that plan. I can only trade what i have in front of me and that says up before down.
I think over the next year the usd is going to stage a major rally, i actually have brought calls on it for december next year and further out. we'll see if that turns out.
  • #10,410
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:33am Dec 1, 2009 12:33am
Quoting shahab8b
some trades asked how the TSR works, here are the example at 15min charts
Hi shahab8b,
I've download MT4 and got it working now, can you please tell me how I can get this TSR you talked about to work ?
  • #10,411
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:38am Dec 1, 2009 12:38am
Quoting Patience
That's why I like to follow fundamentals. It opened my eyes.
Isn't it funny how fundamentals can blind us to what is happening? In 2004 you thought USD was the beez-neez and could do no wrong. Fundamentally, you were so very correct! The only problem is the expression of those fundamentals, you thought "USD = good = USD go up" but the reality is a strong CB (in this case the Fed), strong economy, etc allowed the US to export inflation by selling USD. This is the fundamental: USD = good = USD go down.

And in July last year if I had said AUDUSD and USDCAD at near parity is irrational, USD is fundamentally not this weak you would have disagreed probably, because "fundamentals" told you at the time USD = bad = USD go down.

It seems we have vastly different definition of fundamentals, what you are describing I just call hindsight on the weekly chart. Yes, fundamentals are a driver, but no this is not 1980s George Soros short the GBP anymore (and generally tend to get in the way of a good technical analysis). If you can pick a fundamental high or low in the next 12 months without using a chart then I will eat my hat.
  • #10,412
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:43am Dec 1, 2009 12:43am
Quoting amyc
I actually agree with you that we are about to have a major reversal of trend and i actually had planned on shorting the aud down to 8921 this week but when it opened on monday as high as it did i had to scrap that plan. I can only trade what i have in front of me and that says up before down.
I think over the next year the usd is going to stage a major rally, i actually have brought calls on it for december next year and further out. we'll see if that turns out.
Fair enough bro, I prefer it like this anyway, I don't like to lose money + be wrong + nobody else makes money. At least if I am wrong and lose a bit then you are right and make a bit

My opinion is that Monday was just a big fat short squeeze (admittedly it squeezed us up over the weekly pivot) and I am trying to play with that in mind. Don't mind being wrong as this is year end for me I have made my yearly profits and locked them away, just playing now.
  • #10,413
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:57am Dec 1, 2009 12:57am
Quoting sinner-
Isn't it funny how fundamentals can blind us to what is happening? In 2004 you thought USD was the beez-neez and could do no wrong. Fundamentally, you were so very correct! The only problem is the expression of those fundamentals, you thought "USD = good = USD go up" but the reality is a strong CB (in this case the Fed), strong economy, etc allowed the US to export inflation by selling USD. This is the fundamental: USD = good = USD go down..
I didn't know what fundamentals were in 2004. My idea of fundamentals in 2004 were a lot of fantastic holidays in a groovy country that produced some fab movies coupled with life long brainwashing that told me the US was No. 1.

Fundamentals haven't blinded me. They have helped my trading. But I am well aware that we have had a great rally this year, over-extended yearly ranges, profit taking to take place, year-end book closing and Central Banks around the world unhappy with the US$ weakness so I'm prepared to see some US$ strength. In fact I thought we were going to see it a couple of weeks ago with bearish engulfing on weekly AUD and bullish engulfing on weekly USDX. Hasn't quite played out yet though.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #10,414
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:02am Dec 1, 2009 1:02am
Quoting Patience
with bearish engulfing on weekly AUD and bullish engulfing on weekly USDX. Hasn't quite played out yet though.
People keep mentioning this and I took it for granted but just checked on my chart AUDUSD W1 is not an engulf, the open is lower than prev weeks open.

Engulf means: opens higher than prev candle open, closes lower than prev candle close...

"Engulfing Pattern: A reversal pattern that can be bearish or bullish, depending upon whether it appears at the end of an uptrend (bearish engulfing pattern) or a downtrend (bullish engulfing pattern). The first day is characterized by a small body, followed by a day whose body completely engulfs the previous day's body."
http://stockcharts.com/help/data/med...hEngulfing.gif

Anyway guys, I have buy limits and sell stops in place, time to go home. Attached are my weekly candles. Can someone confirm an actual engulf? See you in an hourish.
Attached Image
  • #10,415
  • Edited 1:48am Dec 1, 2009 1:24am | Edited 1:48am
Quoting sinner-
People keep mentioning this and I took it for granted but just checked on my chart AUDUSD W1 is not an engulf, the open is lower than prev weeks open.
Different brokers. I've got a close of 0.9328 and an open for the next candle of 0.9335 so only 7 pips but it still engulfs the previous candle. My chart is FXPro demo MT4.

Also check Netdania - it's engulfing as well http://www.netdania.com/Products/liv...anceChart.aspx
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #10,416
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:25am Dec 1, 2009 1:25am
australian banks rasing interest rates .45% not .25 % should make aud/usd skyrocket

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/money/ce...-1225805795728
  • #10,417
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:30am Dec 1, 2009 1:30am
Quoting Pipster888
australian banks rasing interest rates .45% not .25 % should make aud/usd skyrocket

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/money/ce...-1225805795728
Not sure why it would make it skyrocket. The banks downunder are just a bunch of greedy $%&*£$. Even though I live in the UK, I also bank with Westpac and if they can squeeze extra charges out of me, they will.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #10,418
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:42am Dec 1, 2009 1:42am
Quoting Patience
Not sure why it would make it skyrocket. The banks downunder are just a bunch of greedy $%&*£$. Even though I live in the UK, I also bank with Westpac and if they can squeeze extra charges out of me, they will.
Also cannot see where this is going to have an affect on the Aud skyrocketing.I dont imagine the bank has increased it's deposit rate with most deposits of any amount normally locked in for a fixed time.
  • #10,419
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:45am Dec 1, 2009 1:45am
Quoting Patience
Not sure why it would make it skyrocket. The banks downunder are just a bunch of greedy $%&*£$. Even though I live in the UK, I also bank with Westpac and if they can squeeze extra charges out of me, they will.
Westpac is the worst for it, pretty much always the first to jump, interesting to see what the others do?
NOTHING VENTURED, NOTHING GAINED
  • #10,420
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:45am Dec 1, 2009 1:45am
Quoting Patience
Not sure why it would make it skyrocket. The banks downunder are just a bunch of greedy $%&*£$. Even though I live in the UK, I also bank with Westpac and if they can squeeze extra charges out of me, they will.
international investors getting a better interest rate on their money should push it up imho
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