Dislikedgot my choppy day unfortunately.
Looking forward, Governor Stevens will get the spotlight in four hours time. The latest survery of economists has 19 of 21 predicting a raise. However, the most accurate of the bunch is predicting no raise in rates. Macquarie Group Ltd.’s Rory Robertson was one of only two economists who predicted the first rate hike in October. Will his crystal ball still be in focus? The market will soon know.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...B5Z0FzeE&pos=6
As far as the currency implications...Ignored
- #10,261
- Nov 30, 2009 6:50pm Nov 30, 2009 6:50pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
- #10,262
- Nov 30, 2009 6:50pm Nov 30, 2009 6:50pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: The Alchemist | 8,917 Posts
9155 is the weekly close of the engulf on my charts, and this just so happens to be the monthly pivot zone as well...
So far today we have remained well bid above that level but with no emphasis on closing above the 61.8% fib (indicates to me just Aussie traders playing the range), close below on the hourly could be quite bearish. I see today possibly playing out with a push to daily R1 @ 9204 for selling.
- #10,263
- Nov 30, 2009 6:54pm Nov 30, 2009 6:54pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: RETIRED | 1,947 Posts
good chart sinner with nice fractals
- #10,264
- Nov 30, 2009 7:02pm Nov 30, 2009 7:02pm
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
Thanks for that-- a question.. would a rate increase lower the aud or strengthen it?? cheers.
However, if the market has incorrectly priced the rate increase/decrease e.g. the Central Bank surprises the market and ups/reduces the rate more/less than the market expected then there will usually be an immediate reaction in the market.
You can never be sure of the reaction of the market (a bit like when NFP numbers are announced - which is this Friday by the way). Sometimes I think rate announcements are just excuses to move the market either way. Sometimes it just doesn't make sense.
I hope I haven't confused you. I find it a little difficult sometimes to put what is in my head into a post so if anyone wants to expand on what I've said, or if I have missed something, please feel free to amplify.
Nothing worth having is easy.
- #10,265
- Nov 30, 2009 7:04pm Nov 30, 2009 7:04pm
- | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: FUDGE | 2,229 Posts
Trade the wave baby. Some people are obsessed with buying low and selling high. Me? I prefer to buy high and sell low
I would say any major news is only an excuse for the big boys to shift their decision, ONLY if the news is vastly differing from expected will you see a rational market response. Thus, trade accordingly: ignore the result, just be aware there is a news release.
That 61.8% fib is looking mighty fierce on the hourly, I am unsure if we will even get a spike. That would involve fresh demand coming into the market after the bad numbers this morning.
true, news already incorporated into the prices hours or days before so .. useless to anticipate those around the time ...
sometimes i see they spike up, as soon they spike down lol ... a lot of times actually ... i just ignore them and put money management in place ...
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- #10,269
- Nov 30, 2009 7:20pm Nov 30, 2009 7:20pm
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
I would say any major news is only an excuse for the big boys to shift their decision, ONLY if the news is vastly differing from expected will you see a rational market response. Thus, trade accordingly: ignore the result, just be aware there is a news release.
many traders on the forum would say "it was all in the charts" or "just follow your chart" Beware of any spikes in either direction following the announcement. Always safer to give it at least 10-15 minutes to let the market show you the way.You could always throw a small soldier out there, close your eyes and cross your fingers but that would be gambling and we don't gamble, do we, or do we? LOL Okay, okay, I'm sometimes guilty of it
Nothing worth having is easy.
daily chart for aud. I see nothing bearish at all it it, for me there is only one move under the current setup and that is up into 9298 and then into 9407. A daily close below 9110 would make me re look at this scenario.
yep .. currently 30m is looking pretty bullish ... just still a waiting game though for now ... i might post when it is a definite bull
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- #10,272
- Nov 30, 2009 7:31pm Nov 30, 2009 7:31pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: RETIRED | 1,947 Posts
yep .. currently 30m is looking pretty bullish ... just still a waiting game though for now ... i might post when it is a definite bull
- #10,273
- Nov 30, 2009 7:35pm Nov 30, 2009 7:35pm
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Pips Farmer | 5,211 Posts
- #10,274
- Nov 30, 2009 7:46pm Nov 30, 2009 7:46pm
- | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Pips Farmer | 5,211 Posts
if Mr.Glen didnot rise the rate in couple hours i see the aussie falling fast , im already abit sweating and my heart is pumping as this trade worth of week of wages on slaving on smelly factory 
- #10,278
- Nov 30, 2009 8:07pm Nov 30, 2009 8:07pm
- Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts
Hi what is your basis and how many are you in for? I am short @ .9157 I am in for 40 lots...it will not hurt my feelings if the interest rate stays the same
40 lots??? I take it you mean mini lots and not standard?
Nothing worth having is easy.