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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #281
  • Nov 29, 2009 4:47pm Nov 29, 2009 4:47pm
On the subject of failed setups:

AUD / JPY April the 2nd till April the 20th, mainly based on H4 TF

h4 chart AUD/JPY

The setup looked promissing. A strong brake out (marked with the yellow line). A hook that has been taken out showed as well. Then a re-test of the break out area (marked in light blue). But it failed and price burned through 69.60. Re-gained some strength and consolidated, before droping even further to 67 where it found strong support and began climbing from there again.

A closer look at the m30 time frame during the initial re-test of the break out area would probably have prevented us from jumping in immediately. No higher highs, no higher lows... no beginning uptrend.

m30 chart AUD/JPY

However, the following consolidation and a small uptrend beginning at ~68 would probably have lured us into going long. And we would have been burned by the next drop to 67 (not visible on the m30 chart, compare h4).

As I see it this just shows that we still have to be picky about our entries. No way to avoid failures like these. But if the R/R is okay, it shouldnt be a problem for the long run...
  • #282
  • Nov 29, 2009 5:06pm Nov 29, 2009 5:06pm
Newbie, just started reading this thread and just wanted to say hello and thanks for sharing. If I understand this system right. Market has a breakout at level A , then moves away and then returns towards level A with a hook pattern but does not hit level A it then moves away again from level A. we then wait for return to Level A and place order at level A in the same direction of first breakout. Does it matter how far away from level A the return hook comes? and if we don't get the hook type pattern but get a partial return anyway does this also count?
  • #283
  • Nov 29, 2009 6:26pm Nov 29, 2009 6:26pm
Quoting Scratch99
So I've been trying to understand this system. So should I be waiting to place a buy on the monthly @ about 1.6830 or would I wait fro the weekly to hit support then come back up tyhen place my buy @ about 1.5950 or would I wait for the daily to hit the breakout then place my buy @ about 1.6052 or ...............

If your trading off of a monthly chart then you have plenty of time to watch price and how it approaches the level. You need to decide what time frame your playing with and then trade what you see. Keep an eye on the next time frame up. I can't say yet that wmd has a class A setup because I haven't traded it long enough, but I have (combined with fibs and other S/R) traded it with profit on as low as the hour chart.

Just read wmd's posts. Ignore everyone else until you understand what he has to say. Then read Porkpie's (I call him porkypie ). Its really simple wait for the price you want no brain sergery here.

Simple things for simple minds.
  • #284
  • Nov 29, 2009 6:27pm Nov 29, 2009 6:27pm
Quoting knuckledrag
If your trading off of a monthly chart then you have plenty of time to watch price and how it approaches the level. You need to decide what time frame your playing with and then trade what you see. Keep an eye on the next time frame up. I can't say yet that wmd has a class A setup because I haven't traded it long enough, but I have (combined with fibs and other S/R) traded it with profit on as low as the hour chart.

Just read wmd's posts. Ignore everyone else until you understand what he has to say. Then read Porkpie's (I call him porkypie )....
Simple works best. I must be a simpleton.
  • #285
  • Nov 29, 2009 6:36pm Nov 29, 2009 6:36pm
Quoting calderone
Simple works best. I must be a simpleton.

Your up on the evolutionary scale from me.
  • #286
  • Nov 29, 2009 8:07pm Nov 29, 2009 8:07pm
Quoting knuckledrag
Your up on the evolutionary scale from me.
Now that is funny! Hopefully I can lower myself down to your level, I will be great then!!
  • #287
  • Nov 30, 2009 12:11am Nov 30, 2009 12:11am
I think the holy grail is to know that there is no holy grail,, get down to serious analysis and plan,, sorry i offendend but there is no such a thing as trading without some thinking
"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" leonardo da vinci
  • #288
  • Nov 30, 2009 2:01am Nov 30, 2009 2:01am
The EUR/USD is testing a congestion area.
Short at 1.5060
  • #289
  • Edited 8:09am Nov 30, 2009 7:41am | Edited 8:09am
Considering the two examples we have for possible pattern failures.

Gy on closer examination looks like a miscall on my part. The breakout levels were correctly identified. There is however a distinct lack of a hook to signyfy untested s/r. Also for stronger levels bo from horizontal zones is more promising then from 'v' shaped zones.

Ay is a harder case to argue. I dont want to fall in to the trap of trying to force a pattern to fit. So i wont. The only thing i can notice is that although the price exceeds the hook, it doesnt continue the breakout momentum. Something to look out for when trying to veryfy levels for future trades. A better example of a trade follows it.
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  • #290
  • Nov 30, 2009 1:29pm Nov 30, 2009 1:29pm
Closed all at 1.4984.
+76 pips...

I was a good resistance.
  • #291
  • Nov 30, 2009 6:51pm Nov 30, 2009 6:51pm
One of the advantages of trading the bop is that the price at which we expect a reaction is always in a tight region.

Sometimes watching that level being breached by even 15 or 20 pips is sufficient to symbolise failure.

On the longer timeframes, where the pattern takes on an 'obvious' formation, aggressive entries with pending orders can be merited.

Where you have a breakout zone but the bop pattern is unclear, then entry should be determined by price action around the zone.

As a secondary measure i use trendlines; in a down trend i use the ltl, in an uptrend the utl; looking for confluence of s/r around the bop zone.

Pa indicating that a level is actually a level and/or will hold has several characteristics which demonstrate a 'sudden' rush of buyers/sellers entering the market at the given price. That rush is met with traders trying to continue the trend. If you're watching it live, it takes on what resembles wild stabbing movements toward the bop each one failing to hit.

Pa indicating that the level may be breached also has certain characteristics damping out any reversal expectations.

I'll post some of the more common or easily identifiable patterns in the comming sessions.
  • #292
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:30am Dec 1, 2009 3:30am
Quoting GEfx
Took a long position on the E/J and captured 30 pips, and am now waiting for a test of the resistance/support at 129.38, which is a price level between the .50 and .618 fibs. A possible barrier lies at 130.06, which looms ahead.

Attachment
hi GEfx,

are u using CQG for ur charting? is it better than all the free charts out there? i find it pretty expensive, or r u using it for other instruments as well?
sorry everyone for the off topic qn.

spicymonkey
  • #293
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:12am Dec 1, 2009 7:12am
Quote
Pa indicating that a level is actually a level and/or will hold has several characteristics which demonstrate a 'sudden' rush of buyers/sellers entering the market at the given price. That rush is met with traders trying to continue the trend. If you're watching it live, it takes on what resembles wild stabbing movements toward the bop each one failing to hit.

Pa indicating that the level may be breached also has certain characteristics damping out any reversal expectations.
...


HI VMD, would like to see you post some pictures from your quotes above, if you donīt mind pleaaase, i am a slow learner and a picture help me a lot...
Would love to see you expand more this also, thanks in advance...
  • #294
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:22am Dec 1, 2009 7:22am
Quoting spicymonkey
hi GEfx,

are u using CQG for ur charting? is it better than all the free charts out there? i find it pretty expensive, or r u using it for other instruments as well?
sorry everyone for the off topic qn.

spicymonkey
Not using CQG nor am I using free charts. Sorry.
  • #295
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:30am Dec 1, 2009 8:30am
I am watching these levels...

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  • #296
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:42am Dec 1, 2009 8:42am
Another one...
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  • #297
  • Dec 2, 2009 9:32am Dec 2, 2009 9:32am
Can this one possible be one?

very new on this...
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  • #298
  • Edited Dec 3, 2009 1:43am Dec 2, 2009 12:38pm | Edited Dec 3, 2009 1:43am
Quoting Forex4pty
Can this one possible be one?

very new on this...
Similar possibility for the GU also.
Edit: 03/12 And it did, price dipped below the 640 level and back to the supply level of 6692 -6721. There could still be a potential reversal at this level but the up move still has some momentum.

Its been fun and games with these levels on GU today. I got short from 640 yesterday evening gmt and when we approached the 585 area I was ready to bail but when it shot straight through I thought we were going to go to the 500 level. But it sprang back up in the end with a hammer at the 85 level. I hastily took profits after that but kicked myself for not taking profits earlier. I always have to remind myself to never ever get married to a position and be ready to switch positions quickly, particularly at these levels if they eventually decide to hold. The H1 supply zone at 6691 to 720 halted price in its tracks where I took a short, and took profits off at the 6640 level. Don't you just love these levels!
  • #299
  • Dec 2, 2009 12:59pm Dec 2, 2009 12:59pm
Quoting Forex4pty
Can this one possible be one?

very new on this...
There was no hook that has been taken out. The level could be tradeable, but it wouldnt be according to the WMD tactic.

Quoting Porkpie
Similar possibility for the GU also. Its been fun and games with these levels on GU today. I got short from 640 yesterday evening gmt and when we approached the 585 area I was ready to bail but when it shot straight through I thought we were going to go to the 500 level. But it sprang back up in the end with a hammer at the 85 level. I hastily took profits after that but kicked myself for not taking profits earlier.

I went short at 1.66381 with SL 1.6650 and a TP at 1.6552. When it broke 1.66 I did set the SL to brake even and went to bed. You probably can imagine the smile I had when I woke up and saw it went right to the TP and shot back up heh. Of course it was luck somewhat. I bet it will teach me a lesson again soon
  • #300
  • Dec 3, 2009 5:43am Dec 3, 2009 5:43am
Here are some of the more common pattens indicating reversal.

We are looking for these at or near s/r/bop levels for non aggressive entry.
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