Well doneKeep us updated on how you do (I don't watch 15 min... scary!)
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
james16 Chart Thread
- #48,881
- Nov 29, 2009 8:14pm Nov 29, 2009 8:14pm
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Making Money > Being "Right" | 1,811 Posts
- #48,883
- Nov 29, 2009 8:57pm Nov 29, 2009 8:57pm
heheh im at work on ff 
yeh i was wondering also in regards to pairs being pretty much the same.
for example any yen pair had pins on friday and also have similar price pattens to do jpy being somewhere in the ticker.
I kinda just figured well I may as well just watch the majors such as u.j g.j and forget about the rest because it just feels like im double handling everything.
I dont know, would be good to get some insight from others about what they do. I know the general word around here is watch as many pairs as you can.
I just keep going around in circles with what im doing. I feel like im getting no where and its fustrating me!
Depending on strategy obviously dictates what you do. I think perhaps if you only watch daily. weekly its not so bad watching more pairs but I do think if you go to 4 hour you may as well just look at a few pairs so you are actually in control and know what is going on and are ready to pounce if a trade scenario evolves vs going " shit i missed that" I was concentrating on all the 20 other pairs I have.
yeh i was wondering also in regards to pairs being pretty much the same.
for example any yen pair had pins on friday and also have similar price pattens to do jpy being somewhere in the ticker.
I kinda just figured well I may as well just watch the majors such as u.j g.j and forget about the rest because it just feels like im double handling everything.
I dont know, would be good to get some insight from others about what they do. I know the general word around here is watch as many pairs as you can.
I just keep going around in circles with what im doing. I feel like im getting no where and its fustrating me!
Depending on strategy obviously dictates what you do. I think perhaps if you only watch daily. weekly its not so bad watching more pairs but I do think if you go to 4 hour you may as well just look at a few pairs so you are actually in control and know what is going on and are ready to pounce if a trade scenario evolves vs going " shit i missed that" I was concentrating on all the 20 other pairs I have.
- #48,884
- Nov 29, 2009 9:16pm Nov 29, 2009 9:16pm
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Making Money > Being "Right" | 1,811 Posts
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
- #48,885
- Nov 29, 2009 9:17pm Nov 29, 2009 9:17pm
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Making Money > Being "Right" | 1,811 Posts
Well done
PPZ's ftw!
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
- #48,886
- Nov 29, 2009 9:25pm Nov 29, 2009 9:25pm
yeh i was wondering also in regards to pairs being pretty much the same.
for example any yen pair had pins on friday and also have similar price pattens to do jpy being somewhere in the ticker.
Those pairs will always move together because they all have yen as the quote currency. Most will move in tandem with USDJPY, because that's always going to be the primary yen pair, and most of the others are constructions based on it.
One thing to keep in mind is that correlations change over time - sometimes drastically. USDJPY used to be positively correlated with the Dow (Dow up, money floods into the US, USDJPY up), now it has a strong negative correlation (Dow up, money floods *out* of the US looking for yields, USDJPY down). Trying to base your trades off that will get your ass kicked if you arent careful... best to stick with the charts for the most part
I kinda just figured well I may as well just watch the majors such as u.j g.j and forget about the rest because it just feels like im double handling everything
(It is particularly applicable in Yen crosses because they are so heavily tied to risk aversion flows. Same as the Swissie. The relationships there are alot stronger than with USD or EUR pairs.)
In the end, I think it is worth watching the liquid pairs - USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY. They have enough volume of their own that you can trade them pretty safely. I wouldnt bother with the others, since you are largely going to be trading indirects (ie, trading NZDJPY is more like trading AUDJPY and AUDNZD at the same time).
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #48,889
- Nov 29, 2009 10:18pm Nov 29, 2009 10:18pm
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Making Money > Being "Right" | 1,811 Posts
Great trade Dan! I hope that once you start doing this full time you will stick around to teach. I really enjoy your posts and the way that they are put together. We can all learn something here from you bro!
K.I.S.S.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
- #48,892
- Edited Nov 30, 2009 2:11am Nov 29, 2009 11:25pm | Edited Nov 30, 2009 2:11am
Hi again guys,
I would like to ask a few questions regarding DBLHC/DBHLC and OVB.
The questions are:
1) Do I have to wait until the second bar that forms the double bar top/bottom closes before entering on retracement or can I straight away enter into a trade if it is obvious that it would form one of the above PA?
2) For DBHLC/DBLHC, does the second bar have to close significantly lower/higher compared to the previous to qualify as a genuine PA signal or just look at the highest and lowest ends of the bar?
3) For the OVB, do we have to consider where it opens and closes? Or do we just look at the High and Low of the bar that engulfs the previous bar to qualify as a legit signal?
I apologize if these questions has been asked before, but I just could not find any similar queries in this thread.
Thanks!
I would like to ask a few questions regarding DBLHC/DBHLC and OVB.
The questions are:
1) Do I have to wait until the second bar that forms the double bar top/bottom closes before entering on retracement or can I straight away enter into a trade if it is obvious that it would form one of the above PA?
2) For DBHLC/DBLHC, does the second bar have to close significantly lower/higher compared to the previous to qualify as a genuine PA signal or just look at the highest and lowest ends of the bar?
3) For the OVB, do we have to consider where it opens and closes? Or do we just look at the High and Low of the bar that engulfs the previous bar to qualify as a legit signal?
I apologize if these questions has been asked before, but I just could not find any similar queries in this thread.
Thanks!
Hi again guys,
I would like to ask a question regarding DBLHC/DBHLC and OVB.
The question is: do I have to wait until the second bar that forms the double top/bottom closes before entering on retracement or can I straight away enter into a trade if it is obvious that it would form one of the above PA?
I apologize if this question has been asked before, but I just could not find any similar queries in this thread.
Thanks!
It's best to wait for the close. As beginners, we should buy/sell a break of the PA.
- #48,894
- Edited Nov 30, 2009 12:18am Nov 29, 2009 11:42pm | Edited Nov 30, 2009 12:18am
Ok, I get it but i don't.... lol
It seems to me it makes sense to not watch EVERY fx pair, but rather to have some dif markets to watch as well? (futures or something)
Watch all strong FX pairs, even if they are are strongly correlated, because you will get different signals on each one.
The only time you need to be concerned is where you are actually trading correlated pairs. You increase your risk by having greater exposure to a single currency, which can lead to trouble if there is some kind of event that goes against you.
Is it a fatal problem? As long as you are following proper risk management strategies, I would say no. But, it is easy enough to avoid - when all the xxxJPY charts are showing setups, just trade the strongest one. Easy game.
Its more just something to be aware of - if you load up yen on every JPY cross you can find, and then the BoJ comes out with some bad news, you are gonna have a bad day.
(and this is strictly IMO, many people dont agree, including Mike, who you should all listen to).
As for futures - I say definitely. More markets -> more charts -> more signals (and, as a side benefit, less exposure to a single asset class)
I probably trade more futures than forex these days. More transparent markets, way more information available to you (including the all-important volume) and *most* move in far more defined, predictible patterns than forex.
For starters, I'd probably pick one from each basket to papertrade - an energy (CL), a metal (GC), a financial (ZF or ZN), a soft (I love KT, but ZW is also a good starter) and an index (YM). See which one(s) fit you, and expand from there.
Personally, I love trading rate futures - mainly because of my day job, but also because they move smoothly and predictibly. Other people like oil, for the potential to knock it right out of the park (American sports metaphor alert!). Others like gold, because its pretty easy to read and the levels are hugely reactive. And then some people are just complete degen gamblers and so they love losing their shirt on pork bellies and OJ futures
It all depends on what works for you. No matter what, there is definitely a market out there that fits.
(I also watch stocks, but that's a whole 'nother post)
*edit*
from your chart, if you really wanted to cut down on the number of squiggles to look at...
I'd skip all the NZD pairs (except maybe AUDNZD, though its pretty choppy), the peso (lol), and probably all the CAD crosses (keeping USDCAD, obv - the rest are all byproducts of USDCAD and the USD cross with that currency). The spread is retarded on most of these anyways, so screw em.
That leaves you with seventeen or eighteen charts. At 2 minutes a chart, that isnt really a huge amount of work to keep up with
If you wanted to go a step further, you could lose all the aussie pairs except AUDUSD and AUDJPY, which whittles it down to thirteen or so. You could throw out CHFJPY too, if you liked, since they both have mostly the same drivers and its pretty dull.
If you really wanted to go spartan - I could whittle my dream team down to ten charts:
AUDJPY - yay risk aversion
EURUSD - low spreads, high volume, boring
USDJPY - get some movement in your charts
EURCHF - big bad swissie
USDCAD - me like oil. me like gold.
EURGBP - for all your cross-channel needs.
then add GC, CL, YM, ZF.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
- #48,896
- Nov 30, 2009 1:33am Nov 30, 2009 1:33am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
Normally, you want to trade a 2-bar pattern when a third bar completes the setup. You get your two matching lows with a higher close, then enter when the next bar breaks it.
You are asking whether it is okay to trade using just one bar and what you think 'might' happen, rather than 3 confirmed moves.
...
Yeah I all too often see new traders get excited that a pinbar is forming. Things can change so fast. If you notice at the end of an hour money comes in and out which can change those bars. ALWAYS wait for the close, it will save your butt all too often
Mike
- #48,897
- Nov 30, 2009 2:20am Nov 30, 2009 2:20am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: LIFE ITSELF | 1,058 Posts
lol, that must be my exemplary communication skills at play, again
Watch all strong FX pairs, even if they are are strongly correlated, because you will get different signals on each one.
The only time you need to be concerned is where you are actually trading correlated pairs. You increase your risk by having greater exposure to a single currency, which can lead to trouble if there is some kind of event that goes against you.
Is it a fatal problem? As long as you are following proper risk management strategies, I would say no....
Love to read your post, knowing your financial background and your experience, really missed your post, it really helped me to understand it better the divercence when you have did the analogie with kicking a football at a window.
when you post here you must know that somebody is paying attention
looking forward for your post
wish you the best!
- #48,898
- Nov 30, 2009 2:41am Nov 30, 2009 2:41am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: LIFE ITSELF | 1,058 Posts
I'm a little KO
althought it's 10:30 AM my local time, I haven't slept 
almost all night wanted to catch the action on the market.
On the yen crosses I haven't touch them because I felt that dow it's having more room to go a little bit down,and expected some retracement on them, and I decided that it's more better to stay off of them, then to risk some money where I have not confidence.
except the cadjpy where I take a small lose,and the cable wich is developing very nice.
wish you the best!!
edit: I'm thinking that thouse PB on the yen crosses are still in play but it's not the perfect time to pull the trigger, anyway this is just my vision
althought it's 10:30 AM my local time, I haven't slept almost all night wanted to catch the action on the market.On the yen crosses I haven't touch them because I felt that dow it's having more room to go a little bit down,and expected some retracement on them, and I decided that it's more better to stay off of them, then to risk some money where I have not confidence.
except the cadjpy where I take a small lose,and the cable wich is developing very nice.
wish you the best!!
edit: I'm thinking that thouse PB on the yen crosses are still in play but it's not the perfect time to pull the trigger, anyway this is just my vision
- #48,899
- Nov 30, 2009 3:02am Nov 30, 2009 3:02am
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Trade Towards the 5 ema | 2,881 Posts
- #48,900
- Nov 30, 2009 3:11am Nov 30, 2009 3:11am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: LIFE ITSELF | 1,058 Posts
raczek is the GOD of forex...... !!!! and no one should forget it.... !!!
but remember to not forget James and Mike they are from the same elite.
be sure that nobody is forgetting him
we will waiting from his posts.wish you the best!!