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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #261
  • Nov 27, 2009 9:29am Nov 27, 2009 9:29am
Took a long position on the E/J and captured 30 pips, and am now waiting for a test of the resistance/support at 129.38, which is a price level between the .50 and .618 fibs. A possible barrier lies at 130.06, which looms ahead.

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  • #262
  • Nov 27, 2009 9:34am Nov 27, 2009 9:34am
Quoting GEfx
Took a long position on the E/J and captured 30 pips, and am now waiting for a test of the resistance/support at 129.38, which is a price level between the .50 and .618 fibs. A possible barrier lies at 130.06, which looms ahead.

Attachment

Hi GE,

Would you mind drawing a vertical line at your pont of entry in stead of the cross-hairs to the left of the chart, please? That way it is easier for us to see your reasoning / action.

Many thanks in advance.
Hercs
  • #263
  • Nov 27, 2009 9:39am Nov 27, 2009 9:39am
Quoting Limstylz
Hey Hercs,

I'm pleased that someone is finding my amendments to the original version (by Eli Hayun) useful. The only issue that I can see from using fractals with this method is that they need to be used with some minor discretions....
Cant seems to PM you.. can you please post it I'm sure it would be useful to us all!
  • #264
  • Nov 27, 2009 9:58am Nov 27, 2009 9:58am
Quoting Hercs
Hi GE,

Would you mind drawing a vertical line at your pont of entry in stead of the cross-hairs to the left of the chart, please? That way it is easier for us to see your reasoning / action.

Many thanks in advance.
Yep, can see how that would be confusing. Will do that in the future. Entry on this trade was at 129.515 with a 30 pip limit.
  • #265
  • Nov 27, 2009 1:45pm Nov 27, 2009 1:45pm
Ahoy yall!

I found this thread this morning and was expecting to have a good laugh when I opened it. Just couldnt take the 100% statement serious. But I was nicely suprised to see a well thought out technique. Thank you for sharing, WMD and the other posters!

I managed to get into a long trade using this tactic later on. Its crude oil, not forex. But the technique should work just as well I guess...

chart 1 (daily)

chart 2 (h4)

The blue line was the break out level I was watching. Green line was the entry. Lower red line was the initial stop. Higher red line is a target (my first target at 75.50 was hit allready).

The entry wasnt perfect, you may notice a pretty bad R/R ratio. But I m still learning.

I was also looking to get long on gold. But the train had so much speed that I was to scared to enter. And I missed the short entry at the top since I was taking a nap then heh.

gold chart

Looking forward to learn more in this thread. Have a nice weekend yall!
  • #266
  • Nov 27, 2009 2:34pm Nov 27, 2009 2:34pm
Yep could wmd possibly elaborate on the 100% aspect? I still only see that we have high probability trades at best?
  • #267
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:03pm Nov 27, 2009 3:03pm
Quoting Sim
Yep could wmd possibly elaborate on the 100% aspect? I still only see that we have high probability trades at best?
only!

Hey Sim do us a favour. Google 'Holy Grail'. You'll find what you want there. Good luck!
  • #268
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:11pm Nov 27, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting Sim
Yep could wmd possibly elaborate on the 100% aspect? I still only see that we have high probability trades at best?
Not to answer for the thread starter but, to me, a method that works (i.e. is profitable) 100% of the time can still produce a small percentage of small size losses.

Over a string of trades you would be net profitable.

The key is to have this be consistent over time - then you would have a method that is 100% profitable.

Have a nice weekend folks!
  • #269
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:44pm Nov 27, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting Porkpie
only!

Hey Sim do us a favour. Google 'Holy Grail'. You'll find what you want there. Good luck!
Hehe, no I mean to ask if there is a second part to this? As I was remember following the early posts and he wanted to go into more depth regarding diagonal SR in the future... or something along those lines
  • #270
  • Nov 27, 2009 3:44pm Nov 27, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting FXSurfer
Not to answer for the thread starter but, to me, a method that works (i.e. is profitable) 100% of the time can still produce a small percentage of small size losses.

Over a string of trades you would be net profitable.

The key is to have this be consistent over time - then you would have a method that is 100% profitable.

Have a nice weekend folks!
Agreed! Have a nice weekend too
  • #271
  • Nov 27, 2009 7:19pm Nov 27, 2009 7:19pm
Why people always spoils the threads

Wdm you are doing well... very interesting technique.
  • #272
  • Nov 28, 2009 5:39am Nov 28, 2009 5:39am
forex4pty what is your problem? stop riding your virtual high horse so quickly and read what I said
  • #273
  • Edited 4:12pm Nov 28, 2009 3:59pm | Edited 4:12pm
There seems to be a lot of debate about the accuracy of this method.

I have described an entry which has a graphical form.

The break out is typically from a cluster/conjestion zone at the bottom or top of a swing. The hook typically has a parabolic form but fails to reach the break out level by a margin. The price typically runs away well exceeding the level of the first hook. When the price returns to the break out point we seek entry.

We've posted many examples here which succeeded. However to have a balanced view I'd like to see some examples of pattern failure. I would be greatful if you have them that you could post them here for analysis.

We may find a formation in the price action which alerts us in advance that the pattern will not hold, which in turn could keep us out of that particular trade.
  • #274
  • Nov 28, 2009 7:25pm Nov 28, 2009 7:25pm
No we all agree the accuracy is high, and it's a great technique. No doubt about that. I was just wondering since I read at the beginning, was there an additional technique based on this parabolic retest of SR? That's where the 100% thing confused me

Cheers
  • #275
  • Edited 5:21pm Nov 29, 2009 1:05pm | Edited 5:21pm
Too add to the discussion about failures or trades that didnt work out so well...can we talk about GJ which totally crapped out..I guess there was some harsh news with Dubia last week.

Price did test 143.20 and 142.50 briefly and you could have taken something at 142.50 but utlimatley the levels didn't hold... that well....also if we look at the weekly charts maybe there are some buy zones that look relevant there for this week...

For me the main issues with this method at present are :

Looking at larger times frames and being able to look at a 'zone' for entry and then set a largish stop loss which could result in quite big draw down...I'm used to trading smaller time frames...

Some of the levels that have been posted to me are a little subjective - so, like any system I guess it is truly finding the best or right ones to trade...how can you ensure you pick a valid level, some don't always seems 'Clear cut' - but no doubt this would develop with practice..

Whatever time frame you are focused on there might an entry on the time frame higher that could make yours insignificant...

Cheers 007


Quoting wmd
gy in buy zone 143.20 - 142.50. we posted this level a few days ago.

ltl is taken from daily.



We've posted many examples here which succeeded. However to have a balanced view I'd like to see some examples of pattern failure. I would be greatful if you have them that you could post them here for analysis.
  • #276
  • Nov 29, 2009 2:03pm Nov 29, 2009 2:03pm
Some levels I will be watching on the dailys of various pairs:

AUD/USD

EUR/GBP

EUR/JPY

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

GOLD

I usually put two lines in an consider it as an area. When price reaches that area, I will zoom in on a lower time frame and look for an establishing reversal to jump in.
  • #277
  • Nov 29, 2009 2:36pm Nov 29, 2009 2:36pm
Quoting redart007
Some of the levels that have been posted to me are a little subjective - so, like any system I guess it is truly finding the best or right ones to trade...how can you ensure you pick a valid level, some don't always seems 'Clear cut'

I agree with this. And I guess the only way to cope with it as I see it is to only take those that offer a very good risk / reward ratio. One might fail every now and then. But since the top of the first "hook" gives us a pretty specific target, we can estimate the risk / reward ratio relatively clear.

Just takes those setups with a good R/R and in the long run it will work out I guess...

Example:

First hook gives the area to look for and the target: daily chart of EUR/GBP

Then zoom in and look for the beginning of an uptrend when price reaches the area. Calculate the stop loss and set it into relation to your target for the R/R:
m30 chart of EUR/GBP

Here the stop would be about ~20 pips. Target is about ~200 pips higher. Gives a 1:10 risk / reward ratio. Take such quality setups and I guess it will work in the long run.
  • #278
  • Nov 29, 2009 3:41pm Nov 29, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting TrooperCoope
Some levels I will be watching on the dailys of various pairs:

AUD/USD

EUR/GBP

EUR/JPY

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

GOLD

I...

At least your only missing an R, I got shorted a GER.

This post isn't aimed at you troopercooper---I just quoted you because your missing the R

I like your charts. If i understand wmd's trade setup, it requires a hook back to an untested breakout for a high probability trade. Price will likely retest these areas, but the high probability trade requires the hook. I trade off of S&R and fibs so I take other entries, but wmd has shown me something I hadn't seen as relevant.

Here are the points of interest IMHO for the GBP/USD. Keep in mind that price may retest any of these or none of them. Also keep in mind wmd's hook as the most likely predictor of the support/resistance holding.

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  • #279
  • Edited 4:01pm Nov 29, 2009 3:44pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting redart007
Too add to the discussion about failures or trades that didnt work out so well...can we talk about GJ which totally crapped out..I guess there was some harsh news with Dubia last week.

Price did test 143.20 and 142.50 briefly and you could have taken something at 142.50 but utlimatley the levels didn't hold... that well....also if we look at the weekly charts maybe there are some buy zones that look relevant there for this week...

For me the main issues with this method at present are :

Looking at larger times frames and being able to look...

I think you are right in identifying these issues. I believe two entry levels have dominated this thread. 1. Entering off levels mid-wave (or mid-cycle) and 2. Entering near the end of the wave (cycle).

I have more experience with set-up 2 and will try to relate my experience to what could be applied to set-up 1.

Set-up 2: The entry near the base of the wave is an opportunity to trade the origin of the move up (up trend example). As there are waves within waves when entering at the base of a 1hour wave we always need to look out for higher time frame waves such as the daily and weekly so that you know where you are in relation to higher time frame demand or supply levels.

So if the base of the wave on H1 was close to a supply (resistance) level of the daily then it might be best to pass up on that trade or at least reduce your position size. If the entry level of H1 is closer to a demand level on a higher time frame then we would have no problems at all with entering the trade. This does not gaurantee that the entry will be a success but it will increase the odds of a trade working out, especially when we are trading with the higher time frame trend.

So how can we relate this lesson to entry 1. mid-wave trades? We can apply the same rule. If the mid-wave is too close to higher time frame supply or demand then we can practice greater discretion, especially if we are trading against the higher time frame trend.

The other issue is stop loss size. With entry technique 2 - trading at the base of a wave, our probability of a succesful trade will greatly increase if we make sure these trades are within or very close to higher time frame zones. If we are trading the 4h chart for example as a higher time frame we can afford to move down to the h1 and even the 15min to look for a similar trade setup within the higher time frame zone. We are then able to take a higher time frame trade off a lower time frame with a lower time frame stop size.

How can we relate this to entry technique 1 the mid-wave trades? Again I think it could be a case of zooming into a smaller time frame looking for breakout opportunities/price action with stops at the previous swing lows/highs of that time frame.

Edit: Idea partly illustrated by knuckle posted simultaneously
  • #280
  • Nov 29, 2009 4:13pm Nov 29, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting knuckledrag
At least your only missing an R, I got shorted a GER.

This post isn't aimed at you troopercooper---I just quoted you because your missing the R

I like your charts. If i understand wmd's trade setup, it requires a hook back to an untested breakout for a high probability trade. Price will likely retest these areas, but the high probability trade requires the hook. I trade off of S&R and fibs so I take other entries, but wmd has shown me something I hadn't seen as relevant.

Here are the points of interest IMHO for the GBP/USD. Keep in mind that...

So I've been trying to understand this system. So should I be waiting to place a buy on the monthly @ about 1.6830 or would I wait fro the weekly to hit support then come back up tyhen place my buy @ about 1.5950 or would I wait for the daily to hit the breakout then place my buy @ about 1.6052 or ...............
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