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  • #8,061
  • Nov 28, 2009 2:35pm Nov 28, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting strat
25 pairs and still counting!

Who is going to have the time to analyse all these?
Was thinking about that!
Might just be a bit too much to ask, maybe?

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,062
  • Nov 28, 2009 4:24pm Nov 28, 2009 4:24pm
We could restrict the pairs to those recommended by Strat for beginners. I think there were about a dozen of them.

Those could be done on a weekly basis regularly every week.

Anything a bit more exotic could be done if people felt inclined as an 'extra'.
  • #8,063
  • Nov 28, 2009 4:52pm Nov 28, 2009 4:52pm
Maybe just 2 or 3 pairs a week and ppl can alternate?

no sense in making it too difficult to manage.
  • #8,064
  • Nov 28, 2009 6:26pm Nov 28, 2009 6:26pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Maybe just 2 or 3 pairs a week and ppl can alternate?

no sense in making it too difficult to manage.
I agree here to make it menageable but would suggest weekly majors update, this would give us a chance to see in what direction other might go.

Jideck
  • #8,065
  • Nov 28, 2009 7:38pm Nov 28, 2009 7:38pm
Quoting Alexandra
It's been very choppy, so there is room on both sides. It highlights the idea that one can make money on both sides of the market if one is disciplined. This may be a technical low achieved in thin market conditions and rejected on Frday, but overall that market is basically where it was a year ago.

For my purposes, as stated long ago, I am awaiting a decline in the Yen to begin so that I can simply hold my position, as done with the EURUSD and the commodity markets. To date, however, I am left stubbing my toe to some extent each time, but the...
Thanks for the explanation Alexandra that makes sense
  • #8,066
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:03pm Nov 28, 2009 10:03pm
Quoting Naws
Thanks for the explanation Alexandra that makes sense
Yes, in a way it does, although this is a technical thread. I tend to drop fundamental views that can be used to underlie PA-based trading, much in the way that others will use more technical long range patterns, candles, and supports. One runs into the danger of telling the market what to do, but to me, it is a successful middle ground between technical and fundamental trading. This hybrid does tend to keep me in the proper direction once things start moving.

Switching gears, make sure you look at the respective levels in the other JPY pairs, as I find them revealing.
  • #8,067
  • Nov 29, 2009 12:05am Nov 29, 2009 12:05am
Another possibility, should those ppl who offered to analyse a pair, instead of doing an analysis every week regardless, only offer an analysis for a trade they are considering for the pair they are "looking after''. It is unlikely that this will happen for every pair at the same time and will be easier for the experts to respond. We could also limit the pairs to those that have volume and volatility, specially for those of us with limited experience of PASR and not yet far along the Path.

Larry
  • #8,068
  • Nov 29, 2009 12:31am Nov 29, 2009 12:31am
Here is my first analysis as as discussed:

29/11/09
AUDUSD
AUDUSD Monthly shows an upward trend which started early this year. The last candle which will close tomorrow – Monday, looks like inverted hammer (SS in the making), it is still a green candle. Price has stalled at 0.9400.

AUDUSD Weekly shows a move down – last 2 weeks, price broken and retested the demand DSIR, Price failed to close above major SR level and big number 0.9300. Not since March 2008 there was similar drop in price.

AUDUSD Daily shows LH and LL. Price confined between 0.9000 and 0.9400 since October. Demand DSIR broken last week, this could have been just the wobble of Dubai news.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overall: trend is still up, wait for PA to show the way with the trend. Price going up and re-testing the 0.9300-0.9400 levels again. Dr Joe is still in command here.
For those trading against the trend, wait for Big Boss and Boss to show the same direction, wait for PA on the Worker to retest the DSIR and see that PA leads down. Possible down move to level 0.8800 next major SR.
Otherwise stay out (I trade with the trend so for now I am out watching for PA to go up again).
This is what I see and do at this time, your comments are vey welcome.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Jideck
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  • #8,069
  • Edited 11:55am Nov 29, 2009 9:21am | Edited 11:55am
USDCHF

Monthly: DT since Jan 2001. Most recent and significant SH was Nov 2008. Since then all the way down to major S at ~9930. This month’s candle shadow is resting on that S forming a double bottom.

Weekly: DT from Nov 2008 has not been without resistance from bulls, particularly at ~10600 level. Shadow of this week’s hammer-like candle is balanced on the major S at ~9930 at the intersection of the S and DSRI. Any thought of taking a Long here should be resisted as there has been no clear move towards HH or HL although the downward momentum seems to be weakening around 10050.

Daily: DT is maintained though Fri’s candle – a bond SS - has broken up through the DSRI and formed the first significant HH and HL for a while. S/R is to be found at ~100 point intervals back up to ~10320. Note how the earlier TL is now acting as support.

There is no reason on the chart at the moment to take a Long position without further confirmation of HHs and HLs and/or a possible retest of the Major S at ~9930. A strong close above the upper TL at at least 10130 and above the 20 MA would also provide further confirmation of the current touch at ~9930 as a possible Swing Low.

If we have a SL in construction here the ride back up will be choppy initially because of the ~100point S/Rs.

[However as pointed out by St George, see post 8071, as the overall trend is DOWN the most likely move is to retest ~9930 and if that breaks a further move down to the low of March 2009, although that close is not much lower than the 9930 but did have a candle shadow of 9614]

But at the moment it is still going down!! Remember Dr Joe.
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  • #8,070
  • Nov 29, 2009 9:25am Nov 29, 2009 9:25am
Quoting Alexandra
It's been very choppy, so there is room on both sides. It highlights the idea that one can make money on both sides of the market if one is disciplined. This may be a technical low achieved in thin market conditions and rejected on Frday, but overall that market is basically where it was a year ago.

For my purposes, as stated long ago, I am awaiting a decline in the Yen to begin so that I can simply hold my position, as done with the EURUSD and the commodity markets. To date, however, I am left stubbing my toe to some extent each time,...

.... but overall that market is basically where it was a year ago. ......

That little phrase did something for me!

I suddenly started looking backwards at charts in a different way.

Won't bother u folks with it, but look at cable ranging in this same spot between 1996 and 2000!

Eur/aud back into that range it had between 2005/2007, etc etc.

somehow a few things seem to have fallen into place.

Thanks Alexandra

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,071
  • Nov 29, 2009 10:25am Nov 29, 2009 10:25am
Thanks for the Charts.
I am a newbie to this thread but not to trading.
Since the tend is still down I would have thought the most probable outcome would be a test of the low at 9941 and then if there is no support a test of the low in March before we see a possible reversal.
  • #8,072
  • Edited 11:57am Nov 29, 2009 11:45am | Edited 11:57am
Quoting stgeorge
Thanks for the Charts.
I am a newbie to this thread but not to trading.
Since the tend is still down I would have thought the most probable outcome would be a test of the low at 9941 and then if there is no support a test of the low in March before we see a possible reversal.
Yes I agree. If the S at ~9930 breaks then further lows are highly likely. I should have pointed that out more strongly in my analysis. However the low of March that you mention is not much below if taken at the close of the candle, however the shadow of the candle you refer to, is, I agree a good way down!

Thank you!

I have edited my previous post to include your comment.
  • #8,073
  • Nov 29, 2009 2:01pm Nov 29, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
USDCHF

Daily: DT is maintained though Fri’s candle – a bond SS - has broken up through the DSRI and formed the first significant HH and HL for a while. S/R is to be found at ~100 point intervals back up to ~10320. Note how the earlier TL is now acting as support.

Just wondering why you consider this a bond SS when the top of the candle has tested the 1.0162 SR level and made it back down to the support level of 1.0039? Wouldn't an entry below the bottom of the SS be a high-probability trade because you are taking a trade with the trend, break of a reversal candle, bounce off of the downtrend line, and a break below support, all of which would indicate that the market would trade lower? Probably at least to the 0.9970 area or lower?

I'm not trying to make a case for a short sale here, because the R:R might not be worth it, but just trying to find out how to tell the difference between these "bond" hammer and SS candles and a real good setup. Is this one no good because it is not a swing high? If not, how many bars would have to proceed after the last swing low to say "OK, thats enough time" and if I get price action here I will go short?

Are there some definite rules that can be put down to determine whether a SS or hammer is a "go" or "no-go" on placing a trade, or is it just experience that tells you that it looks right as a setup?

Since I'm still only taking trades off of SS and hammer candles and they don't occur all that often I would like to tell the good from the bad.

Thank you.

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  • #8,074
  • Nov 29, 2009 2:19pm Nov 29, 2009 2:19pm
Hello everyone,
I was thinking about the growing list of pairs and the work that Strat would have to do just to keep up with the influx of comments, corrections etc on such a list.

Maybe Strat and other seasoned traders could assign us a pair or a few pairs that they wanted done for the week (or bi-weekly) say EUR/GBP and USD/CAD. We would submit our analysis and if he felt that we had really done our homework i.e. didn't just post a few S/R lines without candle explanations he would grade us quickly and possibly post or give us his chart if we were close.

If he thought we weren't working hard enough or missed something major maybe he could give a quick hint and have us resubmit. This would keep the free lunch crowd away and encourage others to learn while doing.

We have to remember to keep this as painless for the teachers as possible as their time is very valuable and we are lucky to have such instruction available to us.

Now this is probably not the optimal solution but hopefully it may generate some other ideas for consideration. Hope this helps. Cheers.

John
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #8,075
  • Nov 29, 2009 2:22pm Nov 29, 2009 2:22pm
Hi all,

I hope you have all had a restfull weekend and holiday for our friends in the US and are all refreshed and ready to rock n roll.

Here is my first analysis for the AUD/JPN pair.

Monthly - The last 4 months have seen a lot of indecision in this pair revolving around the 50% retracement from the previous down trend. The length of the upper shadows of the last two months candles would seem to suggest that the upward momentum is stalling here and we may see a push back down. Overall trend still up.

Weekly - After a breakout of a tight range back in early October price has since bounced off the weekly resistance at 85.00 and is heading down towards support at 75.00. Overall trend range bound.

Daily - Last week started off with a strong Bull candle pushing back above a recent daily demand DSRI, however Tuesday saw a complete reversal of sentiment with the bears regaining conrtol and price touching the low of the previous candle before closing as an inside bar. Wednesday's candle is a spinning top doji showing a lot of indecision and again a second IB. Thursday the bears took control and price headed strongly down breaking the low of Monday's master candle, the daily support at 79.60ish and finishing over 200 pips lower. Early Friday saw a continuation of the bearish move straight through the daily support at 77.60 ish until later in the day when the bearish sentiment weakened close to the lows of the August/September range and the bulls managed to reverse the day's losses ending the week with a large hammer. Overall trend down

This week I would suggest watching Monday's price to see is the Bulls are strong enough to take price back towards the daily DSRIs and upward toward the weekly resistance at 85.00 or whether the bears regain control and push price down beyond Friday's low towards weekly support at 75.00. A break of Friday's low at 76.50 would break the lows of the range going back to early August and could see a significant price fall. Currently a waiting game.

Key:-
Light blue - Monthly SR
Purple - Weekly SR
Gold - Daily SR and DSRI

MAs -
White - 20
Blue - 50
White dotted - Weekly 20
Blue dotted - Weekly 50

All constructive comments welcome as this is a great way to l see how I am progressing on the Path.

Nick
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  • #8,076
  • Nov 29, 2009 2:38pm Nov 29, 2009 2:38pm
Sounds like you're playing both sides of the fence. Your analysis is incoherent.




Quoting Nick'em
Hi all,

I hope you have all had a restfull weekend and holiday for our friends in the US and are all refreshed and ready to rock n roll.

Here is my first analysis for the AUD/JPN pair.

Monthly - The last 4 months have seen a lot of indecision in this pair revolving around the 50% retracement from the previous down trend. The length of the upper shadows of the last two months candles would seem to suggest that the upward momentum is stalling here and we may see a push back down. Overall trend still up.

Weekly - After a breakout of a tight range...
  • #8,077
  • Nov 29, 2009 2:46pm Nov 29, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting PistolDave
Just wondering why you consider this a bond SS when the top of the candle has tested the 1.0162 SR level and made it back down to the support level of 1.0039? Wouldn't an entry below the bottom of the SS be a high-probability trade because you are taking a trade with the trend, break of a reversal candle, bounce off of the downtrend line, and a break below support, all of which would indicate that the market would trade lower? Probably at least to the 0.9970 area or lower?

I'm not trying to make a case for a short sale here, because the R:R might...
Hi PistolDave,

I know you know this aldready, I would check weekly trend and strong SR levels. It can be a perfect hammer or SS, we may have buy or sell right into weekly SR levels.
  • #8,078
  • Nov 29, 2009 2:48pm Nov 29, 2009 2:48pm
Monthly: Ten straight months down can be considered a downtrend , now we're about to close the first up candle, a hammer and second needle, so.....Rejection.

Weekly:Second week up, first one a BUOB (a possible against trend trend, yet abstained). The most interesting thing in these two first charts to my eye, is the fact that we're back in the range eur/aud kept from Jan 2005 to Aug 2008 and that last weeks bounce happened in a minor support.Also weekly, a)the distance to the 100ma is quite stretched b) We have a HH.

Daily: HH, closed above the trendline,stopped by minor support for now. 50 and 100ma sloping down 20 angling up.

Conclusion: not and easy one. Trend is down, yet this would not be my favourite place to short. I would start looking at it in the 1.68/900 area when price meets the 20 BOSS. And more seriously in the 1.70/200 area.
Supposing it went to 1.5650/1.5400 right away, then it's whether one plays the range......
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,079
  • Nov 29, 2009 3:14pm Nov 29, 2009 3:14pm
million thanks and kisses for you and other traders that posted here.
many important Idea and methods.

I should add 5 Star in this topic.
  • #8,080
  • Nov 29, 2009 3:47pm Nov 29, 2009 3:47pm
Quoting Jideck
Here is my first analysis as as discussed:

29/11/09
AUDUSD
Those bars on Thursday/Friday when everyone was on holiday and volumes dropped really impacted the picture. The buyers looked in control before the "wobble" with a higher swing low...have the Thursday/Friday bars really effected the buyers/sellers? Did the news from Dubai? I would think we need to exclude them and look to Wednesday's close of where we will pick up....or should we say this was a significant event and these moves have impacted the technical picture?
Hope is not a trading strategy
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