Trading with Coinflip Accuracy!!

Im going to conduct a 8 trading day experiment for the GBP/USD and EUR/USD starting 29Nov09. At the beginning of each trading day via alpari feed Im going to place a 100 pip TP for Gbp/Usd and a 50 pip SL. Im also going to place a 75 pip TP and a 35 pip SL for Usd/Jpy. At the end of 8 trading days Im going to hold a forex factory poll to see how we can upgrade the strategy in a most basic way. Rigid Monemanagement.

Beginning of New York session?

Wish you all the best, but I think you will end up loosing the spread if you take on enough number of trades. But like you said, you are going to make improvements after the 8 days.

Anyway, I'm interested in seeing the results of this. Looking forward to it.

beam

Its going to be at the beginning of the asian session, EST.

Hey Folks! As a matter of fact im going to edit the system slightly, where going to enact a 50 pip stop loss and 100 pip take profit for the Gbp/Usd and a 35 pip stop loss and 75 pip take profit on the Eur/Usd.

Some key features:

Starting Balance: 1k

Rigid moneymanagement: 2% per trade

Hey,

To simplify it for some were just going to trade a static .1 lot size. Ive also substituted eur/usd with usd/jpy.

Heads = Long
Tails = Short

Here are the open orders:

Gbp/Usd:

Short 1.64782 Tp: 1.63780 Sl: 1.66110

Usd/Jpy:

Long 86.61 Tp: 87.31 Sl: 86.11



The Trial Begins........mmmuuuuuhhhhahahahhahahhhahahahahahahahah

Well looks like we had 2 loser traders yesterday.

Gbp/usd = -50 pips
Usd/jpy = -35 pips

= -85 pips

Here are the new trades:

Short: Gbp/Usd @ 1.6451 w/ 50 pip stop loss and 100 pip tp
Long: Usd/Jpy @ 86.35 w/ 35 pip stop loss and 75 pip tp

Remember Folks, Im literally flipping an OLD Nickel to make my trade decisions. Rigid MM in place.

Both Trades are in minimal Profit. Lol

Does anyone think I should add a Trailing stop to these orders and if so how much and why?

Also do you think the SL and TP are appropriate for each respective currency pair, if not why why why why why why why why?

My advice stick to your original plan and do it for 8 days before making changes. If you have a goal that you want to achieve based on set parameters then there is no point chopping and changing every day, by the 8th day you will have achieved nothing but change. As for the trailing stop, it will more than likely limit your potential. You are already only looking at 2:1 based on a 50/50 outcome. A trailing stop will more often than not further limit potential. If after the 8 days is up you decide to scrap the take profit point and put a trailing stop of some kind in then that would be different because you initial upside potential isnt capped.

Just my thoughts

Razor

Agreed, Im just throwing ideads out there for after the 8 days

Patience, Ratios, Moneymanagement

Usd/Jpy just hit its TP +85 pips (mistakenly set the tp 15 pips higher)

Where going to be closing the coinflipping portion of the thread, and heres why (Darn!).

Probabilities state that coinflipping is only 50/50 if the process is infinite and im not, makes sense. So throughout a sequence of say, 1,012,345 flips, after 12,345 flips we could possibly run into a million flip loss (not my kinda odds).

What can we reap from this thread, Erik?

That through some basic technical analysis we can skew the Probabilities ( I know, I know) in our favor without the possobility of a million trade dry streak.

What is going to be your next experiment?

TBD

But what if you coinflipped 15 different pairs/multiple timeframes and or both with the appropriate capital %? Is it worth investigating ?

There has to become a point where, with the right amount of trade setups, risk/reward ratio, that it would be so improbable that you would consistently lose, that it might be worth attempting.

Does this make sense anyone?

hmm...

Its the Ying Yang twins, more to follow.

Goodnight

not trying to meddle.. i think you should continue your original experiment. but something you can try-

maybe try a straddle.. so you place a buy stop, say 30 pips above the open and a sell stop 30 pips below the open..

set tp's and sl's for both orders and off you go. ( or have no tp and let them run for 24 hours)

ive been backtesting/forward demo testing this for several months on different pairs with different sl's ,tp's and even opening times.

it is hugely profitable when the markets are trending and mildy profitable when they are choppy..

Dont worry about meddling, its a forum to share ideas. Read this Physics Post(s) and tell me what you gather, http://www.physicsforums.com/archive...hp/t-7832.html

I think this would have better implications for a semi-scalping strategy.