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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #161
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:23am Nov 24, 2009 4:23am
buyin seen at basket rebalancing pt.. 146.20s
  • #162
  • Nov 24, 2009 5:33am Nov 24, 2009 5:33am
I don't understand supply level, brother.

Quoting Porkpie
You need to see the bigger picture. Go up a time frame and zoom out. You'll see the euro has been ranging and has reacted to the upper level so you would have been in the move down from where price acted at the supply level at the extreme highs of this range.
  • #163
  • Edited 8:12am Nov 24, 2009 6:16am | Edited 8:12am
Quoting forexfortson
I don't understand supply level, brother.
A supply level is a resistance level. so if eurusd was bearish at that level it is because supply is greater than demand at that level. Sellers have waited at that area to sell because that area was a good area for selling before. Sellers see that the euro is expensive at that point compared to the dollar for example.

The euro in the euro usd pair is the commodity if you like. When sellers come in, as the price moves down the euro becomes cheaper and therefore there are more euros to the dollar.

The supply of the euro is therefore greater to the dollar at that point in time compared to what it was at the supply level when it was considered too expensive, hence the level acting as a supply level. As price moves away from the level the risk of getting in late is higher than if you had gotten in at the level. These supply and demand levels therefore offer us high probability/low risk trades compared to other signals on a chart that may be in-between supply and demand levels.

Supply/demand levels also have to considered in regards to the 'health' of the country's economy. That's what stops are for.

Vice versa for demand. Demand is support.
  • #164
  • Nov 24, 2009 8:17am Nov 24, 2009 8:17am
Quoting forexfortson
I don't understand supply level, brother.
Here's a very good video that explains it. It's long but very worth your time

http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2008...tanding-t.html
  • #165
  • Nov 24, 2009 9:19am Nov 24, 2009 9:19am
Quoting CkM8
Here's a very good video that explains it. It's long but very worth your time

http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2008...tanding-t.html
Thanks for posting this link, very informative!
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get
  • #166
  • Nov 24, 2009 9:34am Nov 24, 2009 9:34am
Price action was so predictable/ or rather accommodating today! Hope you all made some $$s
  • #167
  • Nov 24, 2009 10:05am Nov 24, 2009 10:05am
Quoting Porkpie
Price action was so predictable/ or rather accommodating today! Hope you all made some $$s
wasnt that predictable me.... made some losses
  • #168
  • Nov 24, 2009 10:23am Nov 24, 2009 10:23am
Hi Porkie, good to see some examples...wasnt able to trade today myself...

Cheers

Quoting Porkpie
Price action was so predictable/ or rather accommodating today! Hope you all made some $$s
  • #169
  • Nov 24, 2009 10:27am Nov 24, 2009 10:27am
It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all.

(This is not a trade recomendation. Just an observation.)
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  • #170
  • Edited 3:15pm Nov 24, 2009 11:14am | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting redart007
Hi Porkie, good to see some examples...wasnt able to trade today myself...

Cheers
Based on short term supply /demand levels and not fully compliant with wmd's method

GBPUSD
A - continuation of yesterdays move - entry at the 'spike-base'. No key demand level yet hit for this move so 2nd entry on pull-back.
B - Bounce off a key demand level clearly seen on Hourly chart. Target for A
C- Momentum of medium trend is still short so looking for signs of weakness at C minor supply level. Got stopped out as I had my stop just above the spike at A but jumped in again. Target the origin and small gap of the previous up thrust at D.
D- Didn't take bounce from D but expected a smaller pull back for new entry but didn't happen.

some nice action on euro (bounce off top cluster area around 4970 area)
Caught the bounce long off of cad at 1.0566 and confluence with gmt daily open. Hit my target of 620 almost to the pip (another cluster area).

USDCHF hit a cluster demand level near the lower trendline for a long at 1.0085

A nice bounce off a small level after the nice down move on eurjpy at 3206 area. Didn't take it but would have been a nice counter trend long also turning around at the 3285 previous cluster area, price then made a pin bar and reversed down to the two bar cluster at 32.10. Didn't catch this one but obvious small scalp target points.

This is a 30 min chart. The higher the time frame the more reliable the levels are as already suggested by wmd. If you spot the larger time frames and zoom into a smaller time frame chart and look for a smaller time frame level in and around the larger time frame level you minimize your risk by having smaller stop losses but I wouldn't go below 15 mins.
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  • #171
  • Nov 24, 2009 11:53am Nov 24, 2009 11:53am
Quoting Porkpie
Based on short term supply /demand levels and not fully compliant with wmd's method

GBPUSD
A - continuation of yesterdays move - entry at the 'spike-base'. No key demand level yet hit for this move so 2nd entry on pull-back.
B - Bounce off a key demand level clearly seen on Hourly chart. Target for A
C- Momentum of medium trend is still short so looking for signs of weakness at C minor supply level. Got stopped out as I had my stop just above the spike at A but jumped in again. Target the origin and small gap of the previous up thrust at D.
D-...
Hi Porkpie

Thanks for that very complete explanation.

I now have a better understanding of what to look for.

This looks like it is going to be a great thread with explanations like this it will be easier for us newbies to follow and understand much quicker.
  • #172
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:36pm Nov 24, 2009 4:36pm
Quoting jcgibson
Hi Porkpie

Thanks for that very complete explanation.

I now have a better understanding of what to look for.

This looks like it is going to be a great thread with explanations like this it will be easier for us newbies to follow and understand much quicker.
My style is a bit more agressive than wmd but I think wmd is much safer in terms of how he picks his levels. I don't want to hijack his thread with my view points. His thread has opened my eyes wider so I wait to read more from the master .
  • #173
  • Nov 24, 2009 6:22pm Nov 24, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting Porkpie
My style is a bit more agressive than wmd but I think wmd is much safer in terms of how he picks his levels. I don't want to hijack his thread with my view points. His thread has opened my eyes wider so I wait to read more from the master .

unless otherwise directed by wmd, I'd say your doing fine. Appreciate your input too.
  • #174
  • Nov 24, 2009 6:33pm Nov 24, 2009 6:33pm
I wanted to take one opp to thank you for all your replies at once. That video was worthwile!

Quoting Porkpie
A supply level is a resistance level. so if eurusd was bearish at that level it is because supply is greater than demand at that level. Sellers have waited at that area to sell because that area was a good area for selling before. Sellers see that the euro is expensive at that point compared to the dollar for example.

The euro in the euro usd pair is the commodity if you like. When sellers come in, as the price moves down the euro becomes cheaper and therefore there are more euros to the dollar.

The supply of the euro is therefore greater...
  • #175
  • Nov 24, 2009 7:19pm Nov 24, 2009 7:19pm
I'm pleasantly surprised at the huge response this thread is having. Great threads are the result of those who contribute. So its all down to you folks.

Thanks to Porkpie, 007 and others for keeping the fire burning.

For newbies on the thread, dont be shy. Search your charts, find your levels and post them here for confirmation. Its the best way to learn.

Sharing is caring.
  • #176
  • Nov 24, 2009 7:36pm Nov 24, 2009 7:36pm
Quoting wmd
I'm pleasantly surprised at the huge response this thread is having. Great threads are the result of those who contribute. So its all down to you folks.

Thanks to Porkpie, 007 and others for keeping the fire burning.

For newbies on the thread, dont be shy. Search your charts, find your levels and post them here for confirmation. Its the best way to learn.

Sharing is caring.

I vouched for you because I liked what you were doing. I'm still impressed (the encouragement of the masses) please continue. If you can find the time, please post more charts. Nothing works better than a picture (accept repartition) or a picture and a story.
  • #177
  • Nov 25, 2009 2:37am Nov 25, 2009 2:37am
New pattern I've learned on this thread. Here it is ("steps") on 5M G/U at London open. WMD... three questions:

1) Is the "1st step" in the yellow box? or the 1st step counts once it breaks out of range?

2) Is this something common to a certain pair, like G/U... or one pair will do it one time and another at another time?

3) (Just confirming) And it's only valid just pre- and at London open.Correct? Thanks.

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  • #178
  • Nov 25, 2009 3:21am Nov 25, 2009 3:21am
Morning Guys,

Entered this one on the one hour setup, just closed for 47 pips.

Nice way of trading

Cheers,

WMD

DT
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  • #179
  • Nov 25, 2009 3:34am Nov 25, 2009 3:34am
Watching Cable too on the hourly

Lets see what happens....

Cheers all,

DT
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  • #180
  • Nov 25, 2009 3:42am Nov 25, 2009 3:42am
Im now in as I seem to of spotted a better level????

Stop placed at the previously posted level.

Waiting game....

Cheers,

DT
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