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how likely?

  • #21
  • Dec 1, 2005 11:47pm Dec 1, 2005 11:47pm
Hey Earlierdays!

If you want to learn how to trade profitably, read every post that James16, above, has on this forum. You can't go wrong doing that. I give a very large amount of credit to James16 for helping me turn the corner.

Dial
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  • #22
  • Dec 1, 2005 11:58pm Dec 1, 2005 11:58pm
Quoting diallist
JIM! Welcome back dude! It's only been a week since your last post, but man it felt like forever! Hope you had a great Holiday old buddy!

Dial
thanks dial, been taking a little break. with my new son due almost the exact day as the pf launch i have been getting some things done. probably wont be posting much in dec but i will check in every day just to see whats going on. jim
  • #23
  • Dec 2, 2005 12:27am Dec 2, 2005 12:27am
Quoting narafa
Man, read Market Wizards and the new Market Wizards. 90% of the top traders interviewed in this book got smashed and hammered by the market in the beginning of their trading career before they became what they were. Those top traders lost an average of 70-90% of their primary trading capital at the beginning of their trading career. Some of them even lost 100% of borrowed money and had to work for more than 2 years to re-pay the lost loans before getting back to trading with their own money.


Thanks,

Nader
I have read both books and I think they are great.

One of the things about most of the traders in those books is that they started in the 70s/80s and they were largely self taught. Someone want to learn to trade today can take a course that will teach them how to not blow up their account. The mistakes that people make to blow up their accounts are well documents (in books like the Wizards) so all you need to do is learn from other peoples mistakes and not blow yourself up!

What about the turtles? Did those guys lose all their money before they were successful? No.

I don't believe that you have to have a whole bunch of market scars before you are allowed to make good money. If you put good risk management in place, implement stops and have sensible positionsizing and evaluate what you are doing when things are going right then I don't see why you would blow up.

Simon
  • #24
  • Dec 2, 2005 12:28am Dec 2, 2005 12:28am
Quoting james16
there is no such thing as a successful trader who has not been smashed by the market. but the whole statement is subjective, what is a successful trader and what would be considered getting smashed?
I agree, they are subjective terms.

Simon
  • #25
  • Dec 2, 2005 1:19am Dec 2, 2005 1:19am
Quoting DrRock
I have read both books and I think they are great.

One of the things about most of the traders in those books is that they started in the 70s/80s and they were largely self taught. Someone want to learn to trade today can take a course that will teach them how to not blow up their account. The mistakes that people make to blow up their accounts are well documents (in books like the Wizards) so all you need to do is learn from other peoples mistakes and not blow yourself up!

What about the turtles? Did those guys lose all their money before they were successful? No.

I don't believe that you have to have a whole bunch of market scars before you are allowed to make good money. If you put good risk management in place, implement stops and have sensible positionsizing and evaluate what you are doing when things are going right then I don't see why you would blow up.

Simon
DrRock,
Both you and Narafa have made good points. But the one you make resonates with me. Because of of good books, articles and forums (this one!) and the good people I found here, I feel my learning curve was dramatically shortened. Everytime I state that it only took me 18 months to go from knowing nothing to being consistently profitable month after month, I expect someone to call me a liar. Why? Because I'm sure they read, as I did, that it takes 3 to 5 years for most people to reach consistency. But in spite of the fact that better information is available now than in the 70's and 80's, there will always be some people who will stubbornly insist on doing things their way and not listening to the wisdom and experience of others. But I still respectfully disagree that it is possible for the majority to learn to trade without ever being kicked by the market. For me, it was being kicked by the market that reinforced what I had read. (Oh! THAT'S what the author warned me about!) If the market was my only teacher, I'd have been out of trading long before now.

Thanks for your post.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #26
  • Dec 2, 2005 2:00am Dec 2, 2005 2:00am
Quoting diallist
DrRock,
But I still respectfully disagree that it is possible for the majority to learn to trade without ever being kicked by the market. For me, it was being kicked by the market that reinforced what I had read. (Oh! THAT'S what the author warned me about!) If the market was my only teacher, I'd have been out of trading long before now.

Thanks for your post.

Dial
Thanks Dial.

The point I was trying to make is that get kicked in the teeth by the market is not a requirement for success. As you have said, the majority won't learn to trade without getting kicked but the majority won't learn to trade anyway.

You sum it up very well in terms of being more aware and educated on the pitfalls these days and having more resources to draw on.

I think we broadly agree.

Simon
  • #27
  • Dec 2, 2005 3:51pm Dec 2, 2005 3:51pm
Well thank you all for the replies... I know I sound like a complete newbie and I really am... It's something that I'm going to have to think about before I invest my time and money. I might open up a small $300 account with FXCM and see what happens with that... from it sounds like I'll probably lose it.. unless I can set a limit so that I won't lose more than $20 or so... well thanks again.

Sean
  • #28
  • Dec 3, 2005 6:01am Dec 3, 2005 6:01am
Quoting DrRock
I have read both books and I think they are great.

One of the things about most of the traders in those books is that they started in the 70s/80s and they were largely self taught. Someone want to learn to trade today can take a course that will teach them how to not blow up their account. The mistakes that people make to blow up their accounts are well documents (in books like the Wizards) so all you need to do is learn from other peoples mistakes and not blow yourself up!

What about the turtles? Did those guys lose all their money before they were successful? No.

I don't believe that you have to have a whole bunch of market scars before you are allowed to make good money. If you put good risk management in place, implement stops and have sensible positionsizing and evaluate what you are doing when things are going right then I don't see why you would blow up.

Simon
Many traders are self taught these days as well, and although they read many books/articles/studies, they still insist to play it big or to leave a losing trade until it goes green, or insist on risking 200 pips per trade with an account of $1,000 in equity. These people still exist and they will still exist. This doesn't mean that someone like that can't be successful, just if he is able to learn from his own mistakes, he will be successful, but after the market teaches him how to behave

Anyway, not all traders get smashed by the market before being successful, and not all successful traders got smashed by the market, and it doesn't mean that you are going to be successful if you got smashed by the market. What I was talking about was that the majority of the top traders learned from the market how to be successful after they got really hit hard by it, that's all

Everyone can be successful and aviod the trap of being smashed, but do you have the guts and emotions control to apply sound strategies you read and listen to into your real trading?? That's the real question.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #29
  • Dec 3, 2005 10:19am Dec 3, 2005 10:19am
Just a cynical observation:

Earlierdays' language reminds me of a 4 X made easy tv pitch.



Great comments by everyone.

Earlierdays should simply see for himself with a demo account.

Lou
  • #30
  • Last Post: Dec 3, 2005 11:55am Dec 3, 2005 11:55am
Sean,
I am a newbie, like yourself. I understand that you have questions re: making money and bettering your life via forex trading. With the same goals in mind, I have been studying the market for about 2 years, and so far, realize that I am not ready to put up any hard earned cash to try to trade. (However, the advice about James16's posts is true. He has a lot of practical wisdom there, which has helped me understand a lot more that any other source I have consulted, so far. And in less time!).

For what it may be worth to you, here is my advice:

1. Get yourself a practice account. Most of the online brokers will have downloads of their trading stations, some for only 30 days trial, but MG FOREX www.mgforex.com will give you access to a practice account indefinately. Try your hand at trading with 25K of virtual money, 100:1 leverage and treat it as if it were REAL, to the best of your ability. Also, try not to look at how much virtual dollars you make or lose, but whether you have learned to make successful trades (ie-not lose money) more times than not. Most of us can "fail our way to success" via trial and error, and this is a safe, cost-free method of doing that. If you do get "bloodied", at least it is virtual blood .

2. Analyze your trades. Why did the market do what it did? What were the signals you could/would/ought to/did pick up on? Were you right, or just lucky?

3. Read, read, read. Immerse yourself in forex info. Everybody and his dog has a system to sell you, but you probably can't be successful with someone else's system, so you have to come up with your own. Not that you have to totally reinvent the wheel, but you have to have something that works for YOU, so learn what the successful people are doing, and adapt their knowledge to yourself and your situation. (See #4)

4. Get introspective. Know yourself. (This is where I am at in the process, by the way.) FEAR, GREED, and TIME are what drive the markets. Whatever your 'system", you must have a real understanding of your own levels of fear and greed, as well as your time limitations. If you truly will be satisfied with 100 bucks a day, then bless you in your efforts. But you probably will have to put in the same time and effort learning the nuances of trading to make $100/day that you would to get $1 million/day, the only negotiable part being the size of your stake, and your level of risk tolerance.

I will stop now, even though there is probably a lot more that can be said on this subject. I appreciate those people in these forums who are willing to come to their computers and share their hard-won wisdom for free, so folks like Earlierdays and me can learn from them. I would be interested in reading your take on my observations so far.
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