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Trading with Deadly Accuracy

  • #141
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:48am Nov 23, 2009 8:48am
Quoting wmd
Something to think about before and after London opens.
This is incredibly useful, thanks!
  • #142
  • Nov 23, 2009 12:18pm Nov 23, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting redart007
Possible short...?

Nice call 007
  • #143
  • Nov 23, 2009 12:22pm Nov 23, 2009 12:22pm
haha yeah I'm just watching it...will it or wont it...

Thanks to you WMD...

Quoting wmd
Nice call 007
  • #144
  • Nov 23, 2009 12:31pm Nov 23, 2009 12:31pm
Was a good call 007, I took 20 pips.. Its a great feeling seeing the money roll into my futures account..

Danny
  • #145
  • Edited 3:48pm Nov 23, 2009 2:24pm | Edited 3:48pm
attached. Any thoughts?
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Probability Enhancer.doc   55 KB | 2,994 downloads
  • #146
  • Nov 23, 2009 2:43pm Nov 23, 2009 2:43pm
Quoting Porkpie
attached. Any thoughts?
xlt. nice. its a good guide to picking the best levels.
- nick andre -
  • #147
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:26pm Nov 23, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting Porkpie
attached. Any thoughts?

I like it a lot. Nothing is 100%, but I like your idea of scoring the trade. Did you recently come up with this or have you tried to score these trades ahead of time previously.

I'll look at it as I go through the charts, Thanks.
  • #148
  • Edited Nov 24, 2009 1:24am Nov 23, 2009 3:31pm | Edited Nov 24, 2009 1:24am
Quoting knuckledrag
I like it a lot. Nothing is 100%, but I like your idea of scoring the trade. Did you recently come up with this or have you tried to score these trades ahead of time previously.

I'll look at it as I go through the charts, Thanks.
This is XLT stuff. wmd's method is very very similar. The checklist is just to get you thinking and training your brain to pick the best levels out of habit. Once you use it a few times it becomes automatic. It helps you judge your entry levels and how you approach them. Sometimes the best levels get hit very fast and take-off very fast so it helps to be prepared with a limit order. Other levels may have to be approached more carefully such as waiting for the breakout of the level and even a pull-back.
  • #149
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:49pm Nov 23, 2009 3:49pm
Quoting Porkpie
No, this is XLT stuff. wmd's method is very very similar. The checklist is just to get you thinking and training your brain to pick the best levels out of habit. Once you use it a few times it becomes automatic. It helps you judge your entry levels and how you approach them. Sometimes the best levels get hit very fast and take-off very fast so it helps to be prepared with a limit order. Other levels may have to be approached more carefully such as waiting for the breakout of the level and even a pull-back.

Ok, we've been hanging around different bars. What is XLT stuff, and if his method is similar I'd appreciate a point toward it.

If your score sheet were to be used on this daily chart (assuming 1.4345 as the breakout point) what would your score be----or should we wait and see how it approaches (if it approaches)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #150
  • Edited 7:47pm Nov 23, 2009 7:36pm | Edited 7:47pm
Gents, I am a newbie. I have only been studying forex since August of '09 so please be gentle. I have two questions for you all.

1. I am having trouble understanding what an "untested" support and resistance level is in this method. I understand the concept of s&r levels in general. Believe me, I do understand the concept.

Here is my understanding so far: If price is testing resistance then breaks through it, that resitance level is now untestest support? Vice versa in a bearish trend.

2. I was taught/mentored to apply my support and resistance levels after NY market close on Friday and prior to Sunday open on the daily chart. In this method is that wise or should I consider applying the support and resistance levels to T/F I am going to trade?

Gold star or, go sit in the corner and listen a while longer, Junior? On a serious note I appreciate the guidance mentorship you all have provided by simply sharing your ideas. BIG UPS to WMD for posting this thread. After 4 months of people throwing all kinds of indicators and fancy systems in my face this is a method I am confident I will learn thoroughly and apply to my trading style with accuracy. An old schooler told me that price action is where it's at. I am a believer now!

Healthy and wealthy trading, guys.


gravitas




Quoting wmd
So to summarise this what we are looking for:

1. Resitance
2. Breakout
3. The failed parabola (or hook)
4. The price is moving away from our level

When we see this we have a resistance level that has not been tested as support.

This is our pattern.
  • #151
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:19pm Nov 23, 2009 8:19pm
All:

This us the EURUSD 30m TF live chart obviously.

Paper Trade: I would enter at 4960 with sl at 4940 and exit half the trade at 4980 and ride the rest to next resistance level moving stop to entry. What do you all think?

All of this, of course, without regard to a pin bar/morning star/hammer/doji forming as of yet except for the one at 0030 gmt hours.

Thanks,

Gravitas
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #152
  • Nov 23, 2009 9:53pm Nov 23, 2009 9:53pm
Quoting wmd
... had to wait for pa to show it was going to hold.
What, exactly, do you look for when you say "wait for pa to show..."? BAr closes and candle patterns on a lower t/f? Or just if price slows down and hangs around the level? Would you please clarify that? Thank you.
  • #153
  • Nov 24, 2009 1:31am Nov 24, 2009 1:31am
Quoting forexfortson
All:

This us the EURUSD 30m TF live chart obviously.

Paper Trade: I would enter at 4960 with sl at 4940 and exit half the trade at 4980 and ride the rest to next resistance level moving stop to entry. What do you all think?

All of this, of course, without regard to a pin bar/morning star/hammer/doji forming as of yet except for the one at 0030 gmt hours.

Thanks,

Gravitas
You need to see the bigger picture. Go up a time frame and zoom out. You'll see the euro has been ranging and has reacted to the upper level so you would have been in the move down from where price acted at the supply level at the extreme highs of this range.
  • #154
  • Edited 2:21am Nov 24, 2009 1:58am | Edited 2:21am
Quoting knuckledrag
Ok, we've been hanging around different bars. What is XLT stuff, and if his method is similar I'd appreciate a point toward it.

If your score sheet were to be used on this daily chart (assuming 1.4345 as the breakout point) what would your score be----or should we wait and see how it approaches (if it approaches)

Attachment
There certainly is a strong move out of 4345 so I would be contemplating a limit order there but I would have to see the bigger picture. I would need to know what time frame I was on, what part of the higher time frame trend cycle I was on i.e. are we near higher time frame supply or demand. It also depends on whether price creates new supply levels on its way back down to me eg I don't want to be entering into a new consolidation area above. If there is a consolidation above does that give me a good risk/reward if prices then decide to turn around there. Am I entering with the bigger picture trend or against it. Not sure what wmd thinks about this but its just a way for me think about how I will enter given the potential risk reward and strength of the level.
  • #155
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:22am Nov 24, 2009 3:22am
Quoting forexfortson
All:

This us the EURUSD 30m TF live chart obviously.

Paper Trade: I would enter at 4960 with sl at 4940 and exit half the trade at 4980 and ride the rest to next resistance level moving stop to entry. What do you all think?

All of this, of course, without regard to a pin bar/morning star/hammer/doji forming as of yet except for the one at 0030 gmt hours.

Thanks,

Gravitas
Look for the breakout level at the origin of the wave. This will be the strongest level. There may be sub levels within the wave but they wont always provide the same strength.
  • #156
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:26am Nov 24, 2009 3:26am
Nice one...

Quoting redart007
Possible short...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #157
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:37am Nov 24, 2009 3:37am
Quoting pipimo88
What, exactly, do you look for when you say "wait for pa to show..."? BAr closes and candle patterns on a lower t/f? Or just if price slows down and hangs around the level? Would you please clarify that? Thank you.
There was a vertical drop to that level so needed to see if buyers were going to hold the line. Price stalling and not being able to breach it again was best indication of that.

As a rule, never stand in the way of vertical descent unless you have a very good reason to do so.

We had untested s/r. A ltl. Price had busted through suppport cluster without reaction.
  • #158
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:39am Nov 24, 2009 3:39am
Quoting redart007
Nice one...

someone woke up with a smile on their face this morning.

  • #159
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:16am Nov 24, 2009 4:16am
GBPUSD expected to turn to upside at 1.6474ss around 7-8am
  • #160
  • Nov 24, 2009 4:19am Nov 24, 2009 4:19am
Selling orders seen at 1.4940-58s
I would be selling around 7am
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