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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #2,181
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:54am Nov 20, 2009 9:54am
Quoting shleimun
Insta Forex is a good one.

I've been using it for a year or so.
Hi shleimun,

Thanks for the instaforex recommendation. Might be just what the doctor ordered...
  • #2,182
  • Edited 12:00pm Nov 20, 2009 11:08am | Edited 12:00pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Hi Indy,

Thanks for the heads-up warning on trading this morning. The cable swing high to swing low was 215 pips on my FXDD platform...too risky to trade...besides it's a Friday.

Thanks again for all your research...that's a lot of work for you but it is much appreciated by a number of us here, I am certain.

After all your research, are you advocating both the New York Early and Late trading zones for both GBP/USD and USD/CAD? What about using this application on the London market?

Have a great weekend!
Hi Bob,

I have come up with a different box breakout criteria for GBP USD and USD CAD for both the New York and London sessions. The criteria is different for each session and each pair. I know that this does make it more complicated than one style suits all but I have been looking for the optimum criteria for each pair and each session. You can find the criteria here:

GBP USD London Session post #1877

Please note that I have also added a fast sloping line to the 1 hr chart with the setting being 25, 3, 0

USD CAD London Session post # 1978

Please note I have changed the rules in relation to the sloping lines. I am now using a 15 min chart with 160, 3, 0 and 80, 3, 0 and as long as both lines are pointing in the same direction at the break of the box or on a retracement back to the break of the box (as long as it has not already moved 30 pips) I am entering. I quickly looked back over October and I don't think that this changes the reliability of this set up

GBP USD New York Session post # 2109

USD CAD New York Session post # 2177

I also had a look at EUR JPY as mentioned in my post # 1956 but the results were very reliant upon a small number of large winners. I going to look back over this pair for both London and New York. Then I will be done as I only trade these 3 pairs

Have a good weekend as well
  • #2,183
  • Nov 21, 2009 4:27am Nov 21, 2009 4:27am
Quoting Rbi
Hello everyone...

Please find attached version 1.3.

New: you can now use the opposite side of the box for your stop loss. just set UseBoxForSL = True. you can also change this to use only a percentage of the box size: if you want the SL to be 50% of the box set Order1BoxSLPercent = 50... you can also set this higher then 100%... if you wanna double it set it to 200%. Order2BoxSLPercent is the same but for the optional second order.

also some of you were unsure why the EA wasn't trading at some points... I add this: UseFilterComments....
it doesnt want to open indicator in the chart...Do you know why?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #2,184
  • Edited 12:19pm Nov 21, 2009 9:35am | Edited 12:19pm
I have looked back over the period from 2 October to 13 November for EUR JPY and here are the results (please ignore my post # 1956 with my initial research which is still accurate but I feel that these rules work better):

04.00am - 06.30am Box method

Box period: 04.00am to 06.30am GMT. No trades taken before 06.30am

Time limit: No trades taken after 10.00am

Slope direction: using 200, 3, 0 and 100, 3, 0 from a 15min chart. Providing that both lines match at the close of the 06.15am to 06.30am bar you are looking to take the break of the box in the direction as indicated by slope. Please note that you still would be looking to take the trade even if the slopes change before the trade is triggered as long it meets the time limit

Entry: 1 pip above high or low of box (no use of a buffer)

Breakeven: Move after 21 pips

Stop: 15 pips + spread

Target: 70 pips (excluding spread)

Additional trade opportunity: If the slopes are in conflict at 06.30am. In other words one is pointing up and the other one is pointing down. You set up a new box between 07.00am and 08.45am. If the slopes are back in alignment by the end of the 08.30am to 08.45am bar you would seek to enter a new breakout trade based upon this new box. NB: Only to be used where there is slope conflict at 06.30am

Results (including the additional trade opportunities):

6 winners

16 no trade

4 fail

5 breakeven

Total pips (allowing for spreads and losses) = 324

I believe this is the optimum criteria based upon my analysis of this period. If you set a buffer of 10 pips your losing trades would reduce to 2 (saving about 38 pips) however you would miss out on 60 pips on the 6 winning trades by doing this as the target would need to come down


Please bear in mind that looking at a one month period is quite a short timeframe to review and I would not recommend trading this strategy without following it for a while to check that it does deliver reliable results
  • #2,185
  • Edited 4:46pm Nov 21, 2009 12:28pm | Edited 4:46pm
I have looked back over the period from 2 October to 13 November for EUR JPY and here are the results for the New York Session:

11.00am - 13.00pm Box method

Box period: 11.00am to 13.00pm GMT. No trades taken before 13.00pm

Time limit: No trades taken after 16.30pm

Slope direction: using 200, 3, 0 and 100, 3, 0 from a 15min chart. Providing that both lines match at the close of the 12.45pm to 13.00pm bar you are looking to take the break of the box in the direction as indicated by slope

Entry: 8 pips above high or low of box (use of a pip buffer)

Breakeven: Move after 18 pips

Stop: 17 pips + spread

Target: 45 pips (excluding spread)

Additional trade opportunity: If the slopes are in conflict at 13.00pm. In other words one is pointing up and the other one is pointing down. You set up a new box between 12.00pm and 14.45pm. If the slopes are back in alignment by the end of the 14.30pm to 14.45pm bar you would seek to enter a new breakout trade based upon this new box. NB: Only to be used where there is slope conflict at 13.00pm. Also please note that with this additional set up there is no buffer the entry is 1 pip either side of the breakout box

Results (including the additional trade opportunities):

9 winners

19 no trade

1 fail

2 breakeven

Total pips (allowing for spreads and losses) = 358


Please bear in mind that looking at a one month period is quite a short timeframe to review and I would not recommend trading this strategy without following it for a while to check that it does deliver reliable results
  • #2,186
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:13am Nov 23, 2009 7:13am
any valid setup for today??
  • #2,187
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:20am Nov 23, 2009 7:20am
Quoting vatoslocos
any valid setup for today??
Another 70 mins to go for the M30 chart people using the 0700-0900 EST box. EU looks firmly in a rut ranging between weekly R1 and a mid level so we may see some valid breakout later, hopefully. GU would be looking for a long and EJ is a slight negative as it's been a BH there today.
  • #2,188
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:36am Nov 23, 2009 8:36am
1.6652 for GU, 1.5006 for EU and 133.27 for EJ. EU fills me with zero confidence as 1.5000 and above has been a real battle, it would have to be a strong move upwards to get to TP. EURJPY is a no trade for me given JPY had a Bank Holiday today. GU seems the only suitable contender for a breakout. Watching closely...

Edit: US news at 1500 GMT so this could easily kickstart the potential breakout.
  • #2,189
  • Nov 23, 2009 9:06am Nov 23, 2009 9:06am
Quoting DubaiTrader
1.6652 for GU, 1.5006 for EU and 133.27 for EJ. EU fills me with zero confidence as 1.5000 and above has been a real battle, it would have to be a strong move upwards to get to TP. EURJPY is a no trade for me given JPY had a Bank Holiday today. GU seems the only suitable contender for a breakout. Watching closely...

Edit: US news at 1500 GMT so this could easily kickstart the potential breakout.
Thanks for your analyst.

If GBP/USD break lower box . it is valid to SELL or not ?
  • #2,190
  • Nov 23, 2009 10:08am Nov 23, 2009 10:08am
Quoting wa888
Thanks for your analyst.

If GBP/USD break lower box . it is valid to SELL or not ?
I doubt it would be as the slopes wouldn't have turned in time.
  • #2,191
  • Edited 6:04am Nov 24, 2009 4:38am | Edited 6:04am
I have added an additional rule to my post # 2184 and 2185. I have found over the last couple of days that we are getting stopped out at breakeven having reached a reasonable pip total but not hitting the target.

Yesterday morning box reached 41 pips (after spread) then got stopped out for breakeven

Yesterday afternoon 11 - 13 box reached 36 pips (after spread) then got stopped out for breakeven

Today morning box reached 39 pips (after spread) then got stopped out for breakeven

I have looked back at all the winners and this additional strategy seems to ensure that you get some profit out of these trades which would otherwise have been only breakeven whilst allowing the best chance of reaching the profit target on the winners

On the 1min chart you have a 86 period Simple moving average based upon the close. You do not use this as a trailing stop. When the price closes for 2 bars above or below the average you close the position as near to the moving average as possible. The price having broken through the MA invariably goes back to retest it

Following this approach these 3 breakeven trades would have delivered 75 pips profit (after allowing for the buffers and spread)

I have also had a look at GBP USD and using the same strategy seems to also work for this pair. However with USD CAD you need to use a 106 period ma

Please note that you only use this strategy after the trade has become a breakeven trade following the rules which are set out and having moved your stop to breakeven you would not close the trade out for any less than breakeven
  • #2,192
  • Nov 24, 2009 8:23am Nov 24, 2009 8:23am
Well all the slopes are in disagreement at the moment across the 3 pairs i follow. Will need a fair move to get them to align and the prices may have already broken out.

EU yet again messing with 1.5000 without looking likely to break. 3rd day on the run of testing close to this level before retreating down again. GU is fighting to to climb but I see some fair resistance ahead for it and EJ has 131.80 to clear if going down.

So a non too optimistic outlook, let's see how it plays out.
  • #2,193
  • Nov 24, 2009 8:58am Nov 24, 2009 8:58am
GBP/USD today Nybox .
Valid to buy or sell ?
Thanks
  • #2,194
  • Nov 24, 2009 9:14am Nov 24, 2009 9:14am
Quoting wa888
GBP/USD today Nybox .
Valid to buy or sell ?
Thanks
No valid set up as far I am concerned slopes in different directions
  • #2,195
  • Nov 25, 2009 8:39am Nov 25, 2009 8:39am
TODAY GBP/USD NYBOX, any valid signal to buy or sell ?
  • #2,196
  • Nov 25, 2009 9:40am Nov 25, 2009 9:40am
Hi everyone, I'm new to this blog and thread.

Thanks so much to dznmrd for sharing this method and to everyone else for their contributions. I am now testing it on the GBP/USD, which has broken out downtrending since 14:30 London time.

Although I've read many pages of this blog, I still couldn't find the answer to my question: In this method, when / at what point do you decide to change the initial stop loss at the box's top / bottom (NY 7-9am high/low) and start trailing stops? And when you do start, do you trail 15 pips away from the bar's high or from its close?

I'm interested in trailing stops more than in taking target profits as soon as price gets there (unless you recommend otherwise), I'm always hopeful the trend will continue... but in this method I don't know when to actually start trailing without jeopardizing the trade. I thought I could do it when the first trailed stop is already in profit, but to protect risk I also thought it might be good to do it straight away after a couple of bars, to lose less if it goes wrong. Any ideas?

Thanks for your help!
Sebastian
  • #2,197
  • Nov 25, 2009 9:55am Nov 25, 2009 9:55am
Slopes say long. However as volume seems to be winding down ahead of holiday tomorrow, I'm skipping any trades. Also GU broke out perfectly this morning.
  • #2,198
  • Nov 25, 2009 10:36am Nov 25, 2009 10:36am
Quoting sebasound
Hi everyone, I'm new to this blog and thread.

Thanks so much to dznmrd for sharing this method and to everyone else for their contributions. I am now testing it on the GBP/USD, which has broken out downtrending since 14:30 London time.

Although I've read many pages of this blog, I still couldn't find the answer to my question: In this method, when / at what point do you decide to change the initial stop loss at the box's top / bottom (NY 7-9am high/low) and start trailing stops? And when you do start, do you trail 15 pips away from the bar's...
Hi Sebastian,

I think that you will find that people have adapted the original rules to suit their own trading style. My approach to taking profit and breakout on GBP USD is in post # 2109 and # 2191
  • #2,199
  • Nov 25, 2009 1:20pm Nov 25, 2009 1:20pm
thanks IndyFX!

I had a read on your 2109 and 2191 posts, apart from the first 300 posts on this thread, and I can see how different people go about it in different ways, but generally I still find most systems start the trade with under a 2-1 profit to risk ratio, some even under 1-1, which doesn't sound right...

But I'm a newbie, so I'm wondering if that's the nature of intraday trading, and most traders meet the minimum 2-1 only when trading longer term. Do you think this might be the explanation?

Also, in your versions of the method, do you let price hit the traling stop or do you take your profits as soon as the target is met?

In any case, I'm loving the thread, learning a lot by reading what others do. Thanks!
  • #2,200
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:32pm Nov 25, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting sebasound
thanks IndyFX!

I had a read on your 2109 and 2191 posts, apart from the first 300 posts on this thread, and I can see how different people go about it in different ways, but generally I still find most systems start the trade with under a 2-1 profit to risk ratio, some even under 1-1, which doesn't sound right...

But I'm a newbie, so I'm wondering if that's the nature of intraday trading, and most traders meet the minimum 2-1 only when trading longer term. Do you think this might be the explanation?

Also, in your versions of the method,...
Hi Sebastian,

I agree I was always told look for the big winners with 5-1 and then you can stand 5 losses in a row. However what I also found was that a lot of those systems were trying to pick reversals which is inherently more risky. I have been amazed by how effective the slope indicated is (a big thanks to Dubai for bringing that to my attention). It is very effective at assisting you with trading the trend and rather than going for the big winners at reversals you are trying to pick up pips in the middle of an established trend. As a result the win to loss percentage is very high as shown by the statistics.

I would recommend that you keep a log of the performance and when and if you are confortable you start investing. Here are my log results for my GBP USD morning box break out over the last couple of weeks (no date logged means no signal on that day)

-----------Maximum move ------------Initial move ----------Maximum stop

12/11 ---------30 ------------------------4 --------------------11
13/11 ---------64 ------------------------5 --------------------11
16/11 ----------3 ------------------------Fail ------------------Fail
19/11 ---------43 ------------------------13 --------------------2
23/11 ---------62 ------------------------28 --------------------2
25/11 ---------80 -----------------------N/A -------------------N/A

Where it says N/A it means it shot up and did not need any stop. Based upon my system 4 x 40 pip winners 1 x loss and 1 x breakeven

If you read the posts you will see that I do not operate a trailing stop. It is difficult to know if this would be more effective and to be honest I am more than happy with the performance. The initial move is the amount of pips it moved in the correct direction before going back to the entry point and I use it to determine the best point to move the stop to breakeven.

It is easy to look at the number of pips that you are leaving behind and in setting the parameters for my system I have tried to balance maximising the amount of pips won against having a good win / loss ratio. Some of my systems showed that you could get more pips from less winners but then you have to deal with the psychology of having a lot more losers than winners
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