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AUD/USD

  • #9,541
  • Nov 22, 2009 9:59pm Nov 22, 2009 9:59pm
ben, please confirm you are not "locking in profit" to do that you must exit the market. What you are doing is doubling your account risk on the largely incorrect assumption that because (as an example) NZDUSD and AUDUSD are correlated you are hedging.

In any case, all of your theory ONLY applies if you are playing the game with no SL at all. Otherwise it is entirely possible for one of your SL to get hit, market reverse and hit your other SL.
  • #9,542
  • Nov 22, 2009 10:33pm Nov 22, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Kidd, what you said is another count, its possible if we go for a Double Zig Zag correction wave, which will have 5-3-5/ X /5-3-5 , X wave might be developing now, but to my experience Aussie has a tendency to make an ending diagonal for the final wave as its bidding aggressivelly in lower price due to the interest rate diff. if we go for a double zig zag Resistance at .9200 should hold , but I doubt it.
hi,shahab8b,thanks for ur reponse.i think if the 5 impulsive wave move down i mention works, it maybe wave A in a larger 5-3-5zigzag correction,target 0.8900(the wave4 support in a larger degree).if u look at the s&p chart, u will see, it looks like making a little 5 wave down sequence from this year high , just like aud/usd.
  • #9,543
  • Nov 22, 2009 10:43pm Nov 22, 2009 10:43pm
looking at possible long entry soon, as it has just tipped over R1 and target just below R2
NOTHING VENTURED, NOTHING GAINED
  • #9,544
  • Nov 22, 2009 11:18pm Nov 22, 2009 11:18pm
yeah I'm waiting for it to go past 0.9210 to go long.....anyone else ?
  • #9,545
  • Nov 22, 2009 11:35pm Nov 22, 2009 11:35pm
Quoting Daytrader74
yeah I'm waiting for it to go past 0.9210 to go long.....anyone else ?
Today will be an up day for A/U.

Red line is projected outcome. Blue box is volumated S/R zone.

Enjoy. Very rare for me to give my prime analysis out for free.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,546
  • Nov 23, 2009 1:13am Nov 23, 2009 1:13am
Quoting sinner-
Today will be an up day for A/U.

Red line is projected outcome. Blue box is volumated S/R zone.

Enjoy. Very rare for me to give my prime analysis out for free.
can i just if i got this right with the volume indicator

Green=bull
Red=bear

when red is small prepare to go long
when green is small prepare to go short
NOTHING VENTURED, NOTHING GAINED
  • #9,547
  • Nov 23, 2009 1:29am Nov 23, 2009 1:29am
Quoting franco73
can i just if i got this right with the volume indicator

Green=bull
Red=bear

when red is small prepare to go long
when green is small prepare to go short
Err no? Green just means higher tick volume than the previous volume bar and red means less volume than the previous bar.
  • #9,548
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:23am Nov 23, 2009 4:23am
Quoting Jesus4748
what do u think about this count shahab, i feel i m pretty sure of it and it fits the Elliot waves profile perfectly
we r currently in the B wave of the Major correction which happens to be a 3 wave ABC correction from the down 5 wave move also
It makes perfect sense, the point is you want to go for a 5-3-5 single zig zag or a flat correction ,in latter we might have B wave above .9404, in former it should end up around .93 something, but either way you are saying we will have another 5th way up, which opens .95-96 . I myself try to trade the pattern not wave count ,cos the wave count might end up diff but the pattern is always right.
  • #9,549
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:27am Nov 23, 2009 4:27am
I'm holding to my Long from .9110 ,(+120) I moved SL to .9170 to lock into +60 pips profit.
  • #9,550
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:33am Nov 23, 2009 4:33am
Quoting sinner-
Today will be an up day for A/U.

Red line is projected outcome. Blue box is volumated S/R zone.

Enjoy. Very rare for me to give my prime analysis out for free.
Hi Sinner, I said on Fri "Buy dip (around .91-9110)" which I did myself, should I charge for sharing my Prime analysis now?
  • #9,551
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:54am Nov 23, 2009 4:54am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Sinner, I said on Fri "Buy dip (around .91-9110)" which I did myself, should I charge for sharing my Prime analysis now?
I think you should! I just wish I had been watching this on friday, I was distracted elsewhere. Buying on the dip at a trendline is weet.
  • #9,552
  • Nov 23, 2009 5:38am Nov 23, 2009 5:38am
  •  G_Man
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: getting ready for the next Battle | 781 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
I'm holding to my Long from .9110 ,(+120) I moved SL to .9170 to lock into +60 pips profit.
i am holding long from 9081 ...

are you still holding short on gold?

do i have to wait till tomorrow?
  • #9,553
  • Nov 23, 2009 5:51am Nov 23, 2009 5:51am
Quoting G_Man
i am holding long from 9081 ...

are you still holding short on gold?

do i have to wait till tomorrow?
Hi G_Man, I closed my Short Gold on Fri with tiny profit (20 pips) , I had the chance to close it with +80 but I was distracted by other trades.
Youn can short Gold now , but take the min lot size coz it might go a bit higher, the reason is : its at Monthly R3, I dont see much upside potential for this month ,I'll be surprise to see more than 200-250 pips , if you use very small size you can add on later on
  • #9,554
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:26am Nov 23, 2009 6:26am
Pullback and then long at .9212...hopefully
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  • #9,555
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:36am Nov 23, 2009 6:36am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
There are some very interesting signs coming out in the AUD at the moment.

I noticed this on Tuesday, started shorting at .9333 closed em out but the bigger picture is really starting to support longer term short positions.

the current price has hit resistance at a previous support point. the MACD shows clear bearish divergence. this is the first time that this trend angle has been breached since confirming in July.

the current trend has been a strong normal trend till now with the first real time a sell off has failed to close strongly above...
today see's the support / trend line hold on the AUD...... I am now more bullish on this picture as the trend has held.

a new high will confirm it for me see what the week brings.
  • #9,556
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:55am Nov 23, 2009 6:55am
I favor a short on the kiwi here. 7330 area stops over 7400. Medium term play.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #9,557
  • Nov 23, 2009 6:55am Nov 23, 2009 6:55am
Quoting shahab8b
It makes perfect sense, the point is you want to go for a 5-3-5 single zig zag or a flat correction ,in latter we might have B wave above .9404, in former it should end up around .93 something, but either way you are saying we will have another 5th way up, which opens .95-96 . I myself try to trade the pattern not wave count ,cos the wave count might end up diff but the pattern is always right.
with the RSI clear bearish divergance on the daily chart , it make more sence to me that this leg up as i labeled in my chart is a 2 wave of a bigger fall down , i would say that on the medium and long term its bearish , on the short term its bullish as it ll take a b wave now before going for c which may go over 93 or maybe around 94 , i ll start shorting from 93-9350-94 and possibly 9450-95 if it goes up that long ,,
its safer now to short than long unlike the last couple of month , as an example , if u short at 93 , and dont put sl and have enought levenge to cover it ,, it wont go so far from there and at some point it ll pick u up again but if u long at 9350 and it goes down ,, u r in big trouble cause it ll be a lower top and it ll have great chance to break the daily trend line and leave u on top and hit for the down trend
so i ll play it safe and play the short game not long
  • #9,558
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:04am Nov 23, 2009 7:04am
morning everyone aussie back on the track northside... Bugger!
  • #9,559
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:13am Nov 23, 2009 7:13am
Quoting kimd
Ben, thank you so much. I am finally beginning to get my head wrapped around it.


Kim
good to hear! just remember the keywords is exposure and please never let MR and Mrs. Margincall knock the door
  • #9,560
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:41am Nov 23, 2009 7:41am
Quoting sinner-
ben, please confirm you are not "locking in profit" to do that you must exit the market. What you are doing is doubling your account risk on the largely incorrect assumption that because (as an example) NZDUSD and AUDUSD are correlated you are hedging.

In any case, all of your theory ONLY applies if you are playing the game with no SL at all. Otherwise it is entirely possible for one of your SL to get hit, market reverse and hit your other SL.
Hi Sinner, by locking in profit i'll have the value of the aud/nzd cross value syntheticly, no i dont have to exit becouse snowball willl continue and will find better new value for the cross, as the trades going i also become proud holder of the three pairs at different prices, as i mentioned in my post to Kimd , juggling act within the range to get best value before attackin took place. maintain the trade/s.

yap no stop loss just snowballing
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