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AUD/USD

  • #9,501
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:31am Nov 20, 2009 9:31am
Quoting Leche Mocha
This may be the reason for the big movement in the USD related pairs. It's just one of many but it makes sense to me.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=163959
thanks ! also maybe the selloff in equeties?
  • #9,502
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:43am Nov 20, 2009 9:43am
im out of here and have a very good weekend everyone

http://img38.imagefra.me/img/img38/1...ym_9c339bc.png
  • #9,503
  • Nov 20, 2009 10:19am Nov 20, 2009 10:19am
Buy low,
RSI/MACD Classic Divergence in Hr,
ABC move completed at 1,61 projection level of A
I'm buying dip, around .91-.9075,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd17.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #9,504
  • Nov 20, 2009 10:50am Nov 20, 2009 10:50am
plan: enter long 9150 target 9190
NOTHING VENTURED, NOTHING GAINED
  • #9,505
  • Nov 20, 2009 5:20pm Nov 20, 2009 5:20pm
Quoting shahab8b
Buy low,
RSI/MACD Classic Divergence in Hr,
ABC move completed at 1,61 projection level of A
I'm buying dip, around .91-.9075,
u could see the ABC move as a I-V move instead maybe....with the 3rd and 4th points being 0.9130 and 0.9210....and now we could be looking at an ABC correction now....with A- 0.9160....B-(maybe somewhere around 0.9100ish) and C (maybe 0.9200-0.9240)....time will tell i suppose.....elliot wave theory is all well...uhmm up to the interpretation...like all technical analysis....am looking to get short around the 0.9240 region for a bigger move lower towards 0.8930....

well wont be the first time am wrong....or right...who knows? :S
  • #9,506
  • Nov 20, 2009 7:16pm Nov 20, 2009 7:16pm
I think this is just a correction and will still continue higher next week up to 93.xx
  • #9,507
  • Nov 20, 2009 7:27pm Nov 20, 2009 7:27pm
There are some very interesting signs coming out in the AUD at the moment.

I noticed this on Tuesday, started shorting at .9333 closed em out but the bigger picture is really starting to support longer term short positions.

the current price has hit resistance at a previous support point. the MACD shows clear bearish divergence. this is the first time that this trend angle has been breached since confirming in July.

the current trend has been a strong normal trend till now with the first real time a sell off has failed to close strongly above the last high, suggesting a creeping trend.

this could be a longer consolidation pattern setting up like we had in late may to early July.

.8950 is base support with .94 the target to beat. a move out of the current trend changes the picture for me and I am leaning more to a possible major fall, to .8500ish

lucky we all trade under 4 hours hey guys!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD DAILY.jpg Size: 88 KB
  • #9,508
  • Nov 20, 2009 7:41pm Nov 20, 2009 7:41pm
I have posted a couple charts showing the set up I use {Trendpoint}. But I saw a new indicator on a site recently that looks good. I am thinking if its as good as it looks, I would replace my Trendpointer oscillator with it or compliment it. SO, does anyone use the wave indicator shown on the bottom left of the worldefiles site? If so, please post a picture of the current AUD/USD chart with it so I can line up with my charts and compare.
  • #9,509
  • Nov 20, 2009 10:01pm Nov 20, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting >Apocalypto<
There are some very interesting signs coming out in the AUD at the moment.

I noticed this on Tuesday, started shorting at .9333 closed em out but the bigger picture is really starting to support longer term short positions.

the current price has hit resistance at a previous support point. the MACD shows clear bearish divergence. this is the first time that this trend angle has been breached since confirming in July.

the current trend has been a strong normal trend till now with the first real time a sell off has failed to close strongly above...
Hey Apocalypto,
Great anaylsis,
  • #9,510
  • Edited 10:34pm Nov 20, 2009 10:17pm | Edited 10:34pm
Quoting matouwah
u could see the ABC move as a I-V move instead maybe....with the 3rd and 4th points being 0.9130 and 0.9210....and now we could be looking at an ABC correction now....with A- 0.9160....B-(maybe somewhere around 0.9100ish) and C (maybe 0.9200-0.9240)....time will tell i suppose.....elliot wave theory is all well...uhmm up to the interpretation...like all technical analysis....am looking to get short around the 0.9240 region for a bigger move lower towards 0.8930....

well wont be the first time am wrong....or right...who knows? :S
I agree, that's what I have been thinking of when I drew the channel, it very looks like a 5-3-5 wave now, if we think of it as a 5-3-5 wave considering the pervious bullish trend we will have an ABC correction as a Single Zigzag:

A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C. The subwave sequence is 5-3-5, http://www.elliottwave.com/tutorial/images/fig12223.gif

Figure 1-22 Figure 1-23

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd18.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #9,511
  • Edited 11:35pm Nov 20, 2009 11:12pm | Edited 11:35pm
I'm looking at daily Gold chart and I'd like to share here what I see,
As this intereprataion is vital to what might happen to USD in general and Aussie in particular, I see clearly an accelarated move in a nice well established uptrend in Gold, this kind of accelaration is the last of the trend , the same pattern is labeled as BARR, as Dobelece mentioned here ,
Well, I try to sell rallies and add more, in very small lot size as this beast just goes up almost vertically for the time being.

http://stockcharts.com/school/data/m.../barr-intl.png
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gold5.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #9,512
  • Nov 21, 2009 11:36am Nov 21, 2009 11:36am
I like this quote: "Wave patterns are like beautiful women, classic cars and great art – you know them when you see them."
here is what I think of Aussie development,
we have an ending diagonal as 5th wave of the whole uptrend since March, its near the end. this 5th wave as I drew ,consists of 5 subdivided wave which will make the ending daigonal pattern. we have seen 1/2/3/4 so far, now there is just one wave up needed to compete the pattern. it will be a new high, the decline from there will be so sharp and will caught the bulls with suprise. my target for the decline from the future new high of 0.945-.95 is 0.75 (which seems crazy now).
it really completes the intermarket anaysis regarding Gold which I see at ending stage (with more upside for the timebeing though).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd19.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #9,513
  • Nov 22, 2009 7:19am Nov 22, 2009 7:19am
Hi, looking at the daily charts eur/aud looks like going south. Anyone with an opinion on this?
  • #9,514
  • Nov 22, 2009 12:08pm Nov 22, 2009 12:08pm
Quoting shahab8b
I like this quote: "Wave patterns are like beautiful women, classic cars and great art – you know them when you see them."
here is what I think of Aussie development,
we have an ending diagonal as 5th wave of the whole uptrend since March, its near the end. this 5th wave as I drew ,consists of 5 subdivided wave which will make the ending daigonal pattern. we have seen 1/2/3/4 so far, now there is just one wave up needed to compete the pattern. it will be a new high, the decline from there will be so sharp and will caught the bulls with...
hhi shahab8b, i had the same wave count on aud/usd as u at the beginning, but when i exam the chart carefully, i find out the 4th wave in C and the 2nd wave in C doesnot look like in the same degree(price and time different,4th wave time and price bigger than the 2nd wave in wave C), but the 4th wave in C looks well alternal with the wave B(price and time in the same degree) so if in that case, the wave count will be a 1-2-3-4-5 impuse wave down!???? i just saw your elliott wave count on aud/usd in another thread.wanna hear what ur thought.
  • #9,515
  • Nov 22, 2009 12:36pm Nov 22, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting G_Man
Gold short
AUD long
NZD short

you should try .... its a money making combination ...
GMan, (or anyone really), can you tell me your strategy trading AUD long and NZD short at the same time except for a hedge?

I understand the logic if you are in AUD long against the USD and it goes against you to short the NZD, (I have done so with CHF/EUR), but is it something that is a strategy other than this?

I am quite interested in continiung trading with these two.



Thanks

Kim
  • #9,516
  • Nov 22, 2009 6:27pm Nov 22, 2009 6:27pm
Quoting kimd
GMan, (or anyone really), can you tell me your strategy trading AUD long and NZD short at the same time except for a hedge?

I am quite interested in continiung trading with these two.

Thanks

Kim
Hi Kim, it is no different to trading individual pair/s of those three by maintaining the positions as one but by having the three pairs you actually have more flexibility to trade within the range you are willing to exploit. Also has to be aware with the size and margin as the price sometimes can or able to penetrate beyond the range.

the range for the kiwi 76 - 71, aussie 94 - 89 and the cross 1.26 - 1.22

example long the kiwi at 76 and short the aussie at 94, you dont have any the cross open but you actually has the value of that pair.

94/76=1.2368 your synthetic aud/nzd short position!

if you ride and to the winner(aud) your position gonnabe 94+92= 93 x2 average position. and for the kiwi 76+72= 74 x2 average long, so..

93/74=1.2567 x4 (you had 4trades aud/nzd short now). yet you actually still has no position open for the the cross either short or long.

its a juggling act , you keep playing the two pairs untill you got nice profit and ready to attack the aud/nzd cross with the markets money or the gain. is it make sense?
  • #9,517
  • Nov 22, 2009 6:47pm Nov 22, 2009 6:47pm
could you make sure the trades become profitable within 1000 pips range? and the value of aud/nzd synthetic cross you have never seen before? i do !

http://img01.imagefra.me/img/img01/1...sm_9d6f68c.png
  • #9,518
  • Nov 22, 2009 6:57pm Nov 22, 2009 6:57pm
ask me more and im glad to share what i know, share what you know before its taken out from you!
  • #9,519
  • Nov 22, 2009 7:07pm Nov 22, 2009 7:07pm
Just went long AUD/USD at 0.9175 what are others doing out there ?
  • #9,520
  • Nov 22, 2009 7:16pm Nov 22, 2009 7:16pm
snowballing theory at work, fisrt attemp at size of 1 limit every 20 pips space, average now x7 at 9020, should i locked in the gain by shorting the kiwi x7 at once?

http://img39.imagefra.me/img/img39/1...bm_0aa3884.png

or i just keep snowballing the trades

http://img37.imagefra.me/img/img37/1...qm_631dee4.png

you also could do this at the same pairs as you are in profit by 7 trades long and locked in the gain by shorting x7 at once, and start all over again. As Shahab8b said you are going to be confused if you are not familiar with it not to imagine panic and does not know where the long and where the short are
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