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Bringing Down the Forex House

  • #41
  • Nov 20, 2009 12:06pm Nov 20, 2009 12:06pm
Embarrassingly simple compared to the complicated strategies I've chased. Definitely will explore this.

Slowing down waiting on the countertrend is brilliant information. Do you wait for the countertrend Bband? or before if you get a pullback after a candle pattern?

Thank you,

Steve
  • #42
  • Nov 20, 2009 12:24pm Nov 20, 2009 12:24pm
Quoting stevewide
Embarrassingly simple compared to the complicated strategies I've chased. Definitely will explore this.

Slowing down waiting on the countertrend is brilliant information. Do you wait for the countertrend Bband? or before if you get a pullback after a candle pattern?

Thank you,

Steve
Steve,

Yes, i've found over the years the best trading i've produced is from the simplest of strategies.

No, i do not wait for the counter bband...usually just a spike would be enough for me to enter the market, but you MUST be patient. If you check the chart, you will see that this would NOT be a short entry on 5M chart (in the HiLo MAs) and on the 30M chart you will see that it is way too close the HiLo MA, which means that the Price is not exhausted yet...check chart for more detail.

hope by showing what you SHOULDN'T do helps.

in my early trading years i would have DEF have shorted this just because its up and no other reason would get me not to short...

MADNESS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CounterTrendIII.jpg Size: 175 KB
  • #43
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:27pm Nov 20, 2009 1:27pm
Hi,

I have downloaded your indicators and have been looking over todays eur/usd... I'm still not clear on the entry point you use on the 5 min. When you say for example enter short on a spike on the 5 min do you mean when PA forms a lower high??

Blinkers......

Quoting Madness
Steve,

Yes, i've found over the years the best trading i've produced is from the simplest of strategies.

No, i do not wait for the counter bband...usually just a spike would be enough for me to enter the market, but you MUST be patient....
  • #44
  • Nov 20, 2009 2:21pm Nov 20, 2009 2:21pm
Just to be helpful, here's a template of what Madness has. Only addition is I added colored Hi and Lo MA's (with a 50 pip level on 30m chart only as a reminder for countertrend trades).

Madness, you might want to add your template to the 1st post as traders always need it to get their indicators loaded exactly like yours.

Steve

Color MA & Template attached........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.gif Size: 41 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MA in Color_wAppliedPrice.ex4   5 KB | 382 downloads
File Type: tpl +5m-30m-madness.tpl   5 KB | 408 downloads
  • #45
  • Nov 20, 2009 2:43pm Nov 20, 2009 2:43pm
Thanks alot Steve...

I having trouble loading it to MT4 though.. Will keep at it and thanks again.....



Quoting stevewide
Just to be helpful, here's a template of what Madness has. Only addition is I added colored Hi and Lo MA's (with a 50 pip level on 30m chart only as a reminder for countertrend trades).

Madness, you might want to add your template to the 1st post as traders always need it to get their indicators loaded exactly like yours.

Steve

Color MA & Template attached........
  • #46
  • Nov 20, 2009 2:49pm Nov 20, 2009 2:49pm
Hi Steve,
Thanks for posting your colored MA indicator/w applied price. I've been searching for something like this!! ....T-Wolf
  • #47
  • Nov 20, 2009 3:36pm Nov 20, 2009 3:36pm
Quoting fxblinkers
Hi,

I have downloaded your indicators and have been looking over todays eur/usd... I'm still not clear on the entry point you use on the 5 min. When you say for example enter short on a spike on the 5 min do you mean when PA forms a lower high??

Blinkers......

Blinkers,

I am glad to hear you are giving my strategy some screentime!

I have attached my analysis on EUR/USD for the days action. You have to realize that after the bottom has formed and price has slowly gone back into HiLo on the 30M chart, the downtrend is even less powerful. But you must wait patiently for exhaustion of price ( this basically means there is a skew in the supply and demand of the pair)

There aren't too many triggers for each pair each day, this is why i like to watch about 6-8 pairs during my trading session...keep that in mind

check chart for more details, hope it helps!

ps. i added the yellow vertical line to show the same time on the 2 different time frames for easier viewing
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD ANALYSIS 11-20.jpg Size: 235 KB
  • #48
  • Nov 20, 2009 3:37pm Nov 20, 2009 3:37pm
Quoting stevewide
Just to be helpful, here's a template of what Madness has. Only addition is I added colored Hi and Lo MA's (with a 50 pip level on 30m chart only as a reminder for countertrend trades).

Madness, you might want to add your template to the 1st post as traders always need it to get their indicators loaded exactly like yours.

Steve

Color MA & Template attached........

Thanks! i've been having problems trying to upload my template on here...pretty new to posting online

MADNESS
  • #49
  • Edited 4:42pm Nov 20, 2009 4:04pm | Edited 4:42pm
Madness:
1. Do you scale out of your trades?

2. Do you lock in your stoploss at break even at any time?

3. How many pips of buffer do you add to the Bbands for the stoploss?

4. Finally, is there anyway to tell if price is going beyond the 5m Hi/Lo ma's or do you just enter at the back ma into the 30m trend?

Thanks for helping us with this wonderful method.

Steve
  • #50
  • Edited 4:22pm Nov 20, 2009 4:07pm | Edited 4:22pm
Hi There Madness [Cool Nickname],

Tried your system out on a Eur/Jpy trade Thur. Nov19 [Live Trade] Set up looked good on 30M chart. Saw previous support level at 132.43 area and also 132.51 was an S2 Fib Support on that day so I set my target for 132.51 and my target was hit for a 90 pip profit. [See Attachment] It was a fun Trade!!

I'm enjoying your Thread and your contributions to the FF Community. Keep up your great work. Thank You Sir.....T-Wolf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bringing down house.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #51
  • Nov 20, 2009 4:22pm Nov 20, 2009 4:22pm
Thanks Madness....now I understand more clearly... I hate to bother you again but does the same rule of entry apply when not in a counter trend...and thanks for sharing your time and expertise with us newbies on here...

Blinkers...



Quoting Madness
Blinkers,

I am glad to hear you are giving my strategy some screentime!

I have attached my analysis on EUR/USD for the days action....
  • #52
  • Nov 20, 2009 4:24pm Nov 20, 2009 4:24pm
Well done on your trade T-wolf.. Did you enter because the BBand turned red?? Would you mind explaining your reason for entry...many thanks...

Blinkers.......


Quoting thunderwolf
Hi There Madness [Cool Nickname],

Tried your system out on a Eur/Jpy trade Thur. Nov19 [Live Trade] Set up looked good on 30M chart. Saw previous support level at 132.43 area and also 132.51 was an S2 Fib Support on that day so I set my target for 132.51 and my target was hit for a 90 pip profit. [See Attachment] It was a fun Trade!!

I'm enjoying your Thread and your contributions to the FF Community. Keep up your great work. Thank You Sir.....T-Wolf
  • #53
  • Nov 20, 2009 4:30pm Nov 20, 2009 4:30pm
On my previous post, I said Thur Sep 19, I corrected the date to Nov. 19
Sorry about that, and I haven't even had a beer yet
  • #54
  • Edited Nov 21, 2009 11:17am Nov 20, 2009 4:46pm | Edited Nov 21, 2009 11:17am
Interesting method. Similar to Joe Ross Camel Back method (he uses 40ema tunnel).

I like the use of the two time frames which helps to filter out some of the noise. However, I think your entry would be more enhanced by considering using a Traders Trick entry (google Joe Ross Law of Charts -its free), as a lot of times in a strong trend price will not pull back to the ema tunnel (for multiple entries throughout a trade).

Deeper pull backs on the other hand, could be enhanced by placing your entries at the low of the cluster of candles at the swing high (eg. down trend) as this provides resistance much of the time. Be ready with a Traders Trick entry just in case that resistance level isn't hit. If the pull back supercedes this candle this is usually a warning of an iminent change of direction, and your thrust back down from the pull back will likely be weak. Some profits may then be taken at the swing low of the pull back (The hook). Using both entry methods provides an entry insurance with the entry at resistance, the very top of the pull back, being the most lucrative entry. If price does not reach it then the TT entry will get you in.

With regards to profit targets this I think is important in understanding each trade's risk reward ( I never use less than a 2:1). Targets might be SR levels calculated against your stop at the BB band (as stated by the op) or a previous swing high/low. Plot SR levels to Make sure you are not selling directly into demand or buying into supply, the BB bands won't tell you this (and to be honest I am not really sure how useful the BB bands are). For targets without obvious SR levels I often use an A-B projection from C approach (previous swing projected from the current pull back) as a first target (similar to fib projections). If I have a confluence of a target projection and an SR level, this makes the target highly probable. Taking some profits at targets and letting the remainder of your trade to trail means you won't be left out if the market makes a runner.
  • #55
  • Nov 20, 2009 5:01pm Nov 20, 2009 5:01pm
Quoting fxblinkers
Well done on your trade T-wolf.. Did you enter because the BBand turned red?? Would you mind explaining your reason for entry...many thanks...

Blinkers.......
Howdy Blinkers,

On my chart attachment, notice the yellow dotted vertical line. Go back 2 candles. First one is a blue bearish candle closing just below the low 21 MA. Second candle is a small white bullish candle retesting the lower 21 MA and failing to break back above it [Price action is rejecting the bullish move back up] Then comes the candle I entered on which is the first red dot of Bband, signalling a down trend could be starting. Also look at my bottom indicator window where I have an 8 Period RSI with an 8 Period Simple MA attached to the RSI Values. Notice the Blue RSI line has crossed below the 8 MA and the 50 level line. That's a trigger to enter! My signal to exit the trade, had I been awake would have been the Blue RSI line crossing back above the 50 level. Also in that area you see many consolidating candles showing the down move had exhausted itself, already having exceeded it's average daily range. When I went to bed I thought it would test that 132.43 support level and that was why I set my target at the S2 support level that day at 132.51
Hope I explained that well enough Blinkers.....T-Wolf
  • #56
  • Nov 20, 2009 7:13pm Nov 20, 2009 7:13pm
Thanks alot T Wolf... I understand now why you entered...

Thanks alot.................

Quoting thunderwolf
Howdy Blinkers,...
  • #57
  • Nov 21, 2009 11:02am Nov 21, 2009 11:02am
here's an alert for the 30min. Change the slow MA to 21. Not sure about the other setting so just give it a tweak and see what works.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MA_233Crossover_Alert.ex4   11 KB | 480 downloads
  • #58
  • Nov 22, 2009 4:25pm Nov 22, 2009 4:25pm
Quoting stevewide
Just to be helpful, here's a template of what Madness has. Only addition is I added colored Hi and Lo MA's (with a 50 pip level on 30m chart only as a reminder for countertrend trades).

Steve's idea to use the color coding MAs on this system helps visually keeping you in the right trend direction. Recommended


Kostas
  • #59
  • Edited 5:29pm Nov 22, 2009 5:17pm | Edited 5:29pm
Madness,

Can we focus on the with-trend trading a little more before moving to CT? I am still trying to figure out when to get in/out of the trades. Here's one idea that I would like your comments.

Example for short trade using your previous chart (look only the light blue color on top chart for my with-trend entry/exit)
1. BB turns red on 30m.
2. Waiting for 5m to close below MA-Low and enter on the open of the next 5m candle with SL at the BB
3. Exit when 5m closes above MA-High.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example_short.jpg Size: 46 KB
  • #60
  • Nov 22, 2009 8:44pm Nov 22, 2009 8:44pm
someone needs to post some of Sunday night's trades. There were lots. I just got home and found the two I liked best.

On the Au trade I entered using the Traders Trick pdf on the 2nd candle high breach. I've used this before. It did not result in a better entry. If I'd waited on price to return to the back of the wave as Madness teaches I'd had the best entry. But no complaints with my 28 pips.

On the Eg trade, the Traders Trick entry helped me get in after the trade took off. I manually closed it for 11 pips at it tested the 4h consolidation to the left.

Thank you Madness for a great method. Please keep teaching us.

Steve
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 30.gif Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au 5.gif Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eg30.gif Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eg5.gif Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eg4.gif Size: 49 KB
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